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Marine Weather and Tides Belle Terre, NY Version 3.4

NOTICE 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 7:08AM

Sunset 4:26PM

Sunday December 15, 2019 10:04 AM EST (15:04 UTC)

Moonrise 9:05PM

Moonset 11:12AM

Illumination 85%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belle Terre, NY

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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 151149 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 649 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds in from the west today as low pressure continues to track well to the north. High pressure briefly builds over the region tonight, then drifts offshore Monday. A low pressure system impacts the region Monday through Tuesday, departing to the northeast Tuesday night. High pressure builds into the region on Wednesday and remains over the area through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. With the cyclonic flow remaining across the northeast clouds have begun to move back into the western zones. So increased cloud cover through this morning, as drying should begin this afternoon with the ridge building. Also adjusted dew points and temperatures, which were running higher than forecast.

The deep upper closed low that affected to the region Saturday will continue to track through eastern Canada as the flow across the area becomes zonal. Snow streamers were coming off the eastern Great Lakes in the strong west flow. The flurries should remain west of the region, however, would not be too surprised if a few made it into the lower Hudson Valley. Meanwhile the next shortwave to affect the region will be amplifying into the intermountain southwest. With a zonal, progressive flow, this shortwave will quickly translate eastward. However, there remains uncertainty as to the timing of this system.

Meanwhile weak surface ridging builds into the area today as the developing surface low tracks through the southern plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley. With a strong pressure gradient between the departing low to the north and high pressure to the west, strong and gusty westerly winds are expected. These winds and gusts will diminish early this evening as the surface high builds into the area. The high will be over the area through tonight, with the center of the high shifting off the Mid Atlantic coast toward morning. The high will keep the frontal system suppressed to the south with precipitation remaining to the southwest of the area 12Z Monday.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/. While the guidance has come into a little better agreement with the shortwave tracking toward the area, there still remains uncertainty with the track of the low. The latest trend has been a shift a little farther to the south. And later guidance may continue this trend or even shift the low back to the north. The uncertainty will have impacts to the timing and type of precipitation across the forecast area.

With the latest trends have held off the timing of the precipitation as the high shows weak signals of damming, keeping cold air across the northern tier. So, will have likely probabilities after 18Z and only across the far southern zones with low end chance probabilities reaching much of the area by later Monday afternoon.

With cold air in place precipitation will be in the form of light snow. And then with warmer air moving in along the coast, especially aloft, a mix of rain, snow, and sleet will be possible late day. There may even be pockets of light freezing rain across northeastern New Jersey and into northern portions of New York City.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. STORM SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY .

Timing and placement differences remain with the track of the low through Tuesday night with the GFS a little quicker and farther north than the ECMWF. Thus confidence is on the low end with precipitation types across the region. And the NAM was showing colder lower levels as a warm layer moves in aloft, with a strengthening warm frontal boundary. So, used a blend for precipitation types Monday night through Tuesday. With the possibility of colder surface air remaining Monday night into Tuesday, there may be more freezing rain closer to the coast than currently forecast. While inland may be predominately freezing rain.

The low will be tracking well east of the area Tuesday night with the precipitation quickly ending. Drying conditions are expected by later Tuesday night as the low deepens and accelerates northeast to eventually southeast of Nova Scotia by early Wednesday.

For the rest of the long term, high pressure starts to build back into the region on Wednesday and will remain over the area through the end of the week. Expect dry conditions with temperatures below normal. Low pressure may impact the area over the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Strong low pressure tracks north through eastern Canada today, with weak high pressure building into the region tonight. A weak area of low pressure approaches the region Monday.

VFR through Monday 12z.

Main concern will be gusty W winds, sustained 20-25ktG30-35kt today, with an isolated peak gusts to 40 kt possible. Winds and gusts gradually subside through the evening push, diminishing late tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Monday. MVFR/IFR conds in light snow/wintry mix becoming likely for NYC/MJ metro terminals in the afternoon. Monday night. IFR or lower likely. NYC metros and coastal terminals, wintry mix gradually changing to plain rain late. KEWR/KTEB/KBDR could see freezing rain linger into early Tue morning push. KHPN/KSWF wintry mix, including freezing rain. Tuesday. IFR or lower conds. Wintry mix, possibly changing back to all snow at KSWF before ending. Rain at NYC/NJ metro and coastal terminals, possibly changing to wintry mix before ending late. N gusts to 20kt developing Tue afternoon. Tuesday night. VFR. NW winds G20kt NYC metros/KISP mainly eve. Wednesday. VFR. NW winds G25kt mainly afternoon. Thursday. VFR.

MARINE. No changes to the winds and seas at this time.

Gale force wind gusts today, subsiding this evening, and falling below SCA by late tonight. Ocean seas will be a bit slower to respond with residual s/se swells, but should fall below SCA from w to e through Monday morning.

Sub-SCA condition expected through Tuesday morning, with SCA conditions becoming increasingly likely late Tuesday, and then likely all waters Tuesday Night through Thursday. Potential for a period of gale conditions on the ocean waters Wednesday Night with passage of an arctic front.

HYDROLOGY. Remaining flooding concerns are for the larger stem rivers in CT with a combination of the recent rainfall and melting snow to the north.

Another significant precipitation event is likely Monday through Tuesday, with liquid equivalent QPF of 0.5 to 1.25 inches possible. There is uncertainty in this amount given uncertainty in the track of the low and frontal positions.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ335-338-345. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ330-340-350- 353-355.

SYNOPSIS . 19 NEAR TERM . 19 SHORT TERM . 19 LONG TERM . JM/19 AVIATION . NV MARINE . NV HYDROLOGY . 19 EQUIPMENT .

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT	14 mi	52 min	WSW 5.1 G 11	44°F	44°F		1004.9 hPa
44069	20 mi	94 min	W 18 G 21	43°F	40°F			36°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT	22 mi	46 min	W 9.9 G 17	45°F	43°F		1004.5 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound	27 mi	74 min	WSW 18 G 23	46°F		2 ft		35°F
44022 - Execution Rocks	35 mi	49 min	W 16 G 23	46°F	32°F			34°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY	38 mi	46 min	WNW 15 G 20	45°F	44°F		1007.4 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT

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10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

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3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

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6 AM

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9 AM

Last 24hr

NE4

NE3

E2

NE3

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SE5 G9

S8 G11

S10 G16

SW11 G18

SW10 G16

SW11 G18

SW8 G15

W9 G23

W9 G16

W9 G21

NW7 G17

W7 G13

W11 G16

W10 G18

W7 G13

W7 G16

W7 G13

W7 G13

W7 G14

1 day ago

NE4

NE5

NE4 G9

NE6

NE6

NE5

NE7 G10

NE7 G10

E8 G11

NE8 G11

E7 G11

NE10 G14

E11 G14

E9 G14

NE9 G14

NE11 G17

NE11 G14

NE11 G15

NE7 G11

N3 G6

N7 G10

NE6

N3

N3

2 days ago

N3 G6

N5 G9

N6 G9

N5 G9

NE2 G5

NE3

SE3 G6

W3

SW5

SW4 G7

S4

S6

SW6

SW7

NW4

N4

N2

N3

NE5

N3 G6

N3

NE2

N3

N3

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY	13 mi	68 min	W 12	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	45°F	33°F	63%	1006.1 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT	13 mi	72 min	WSW 9	10.00 mi	Overcast	45°F	33°F	63%	1005.1 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY	17 mi	68 min	W 9 G 17	10.00 mi	Overcast	45°F	30°F	58%	1006.1 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT	23 mi	71 min	W 9 G 17	10.00 mi	Overcast	46°F	30°F	56%	1004.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBDR

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

E5

NE3

E5

E5

E7

S14 G19

S15

S17

SW11

SW17

SW12 G26

SW12

W15

W13 G25

W17 G23

W12 G21

W19 G27

W15 G28

W15 G21

W16 G23

W13 G23

W8 G18

SW9

W13 G18

1 day ago

NE5

NE7

N6

NE6

NE8

NE7

NE9

NE10

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NE11

NE12

NE14

NE15

NE17

NE16

NE15

NE11 G22

NE11

NE11 G14

N12

NE5

NE6

N8

NE4

2 days ago

N8

N7

N8

NE5

E3

SE3

S3

Calm

S4

SE4

S6

S5

S5

S3

N3

NE7

N6

NE8

NE7

NE6

N5

N6

NE5

N5

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Tide / Current Tables for Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows), Long Island Sound, New York

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Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (10,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY

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