Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Noyack, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1. High rip current risk for today.

2. Potential for scattered afternoon/early evening heavy downpour and thunderstorm activity from Wednesday into the weekend.

3. Very warm and very humid for Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
High rip current risk for today.

No major changes with the rip current risk with this update.
Conditions should gradually improve as the surf height decreases, but at least a moderate risk is likely to continue through the day tomorrow.

At least a moderate risk is likely for Wed as SSE swells continue to subside to 3-4 ft, but may remain high at the eastern Suffolk beaches with the higher swells out east and ebb tide from late morning into early afternoon.

A high risk may also be possible late day Thu at the NYC, Nassau, and western Suffolk beaches as SSW flow increases to near 20 kt with wind waves building to 4 ft.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Potential for scattered afternoon/early evening heavy downpour and thunderstorm activity from Wednesday into the weekend.

Scattered afternoon shower/thunderstorm threat returns on Wed and continues through the weekend as region lies on NW edge of Bermuda ridging. This will also bring a very warm and very humid air mass into the region Thu thru the weekend with deep SW flow and H8 temps rising to 18-20C.

Forcing will be from weak convectively enhanced vort maximum rounding the upper ridge Wed and Thu, and then approaching weak northern stream shortwave troughs Fri into the weekend. Latest guidance depicts the low level convergence mostly west of the city. Additionally, not expecting any significant moisture advection (aside from the thin layer near the surface due to the sea breeze) until after sunset Wednesday. Thus, during the day time, expect most of the shower and storm activity to stay southwest of the region. It could start to expand eastward after 00Z (getting into the evening hours).

As the moisture builds particularly from Thursday onward, this will present an isolated severe and flash flood threat, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. Storm motions are expected to be moderate through this period (20 to 30 kts), so it may come down to if there will be any training of storms or if brief, heavy downpours occur over the most flood vulnerable locations. All that being said, the marginal (1 out of 4)
excessive rain outlook for Thursday and Friday seems reasonable at this point. For the severe threat, that will be dependent on the exact timing of the short wave troughs, which at this point is uncertain. As we get closer, should have a better idea on the periods where this may be more of a concern.

KEY MESSAGE 3
Very warm and very humid for Thursday into the weekend.

Temps should rise to at least to the upper 80s to around 90 for NE NJ/NYC metro and the interior, with dewpoints in the mid 70s, from Thu through Mon. GFS MOS guidance shows lower dewpoints but higher temperatures compared to NBM. Both bring heat index values to 95-100 on Thu, 95-104 Fri, and continuing above 95 in urban/coastal areas and across the interior river valleys from Sat-Mon. If this trend continues, a heat advisory may be needed.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure passes over the area today.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Low chance of MVFR/IFR, mainly for outlying terminals, late tonight into Wednesday morning in fog or low stratus.

Light N/NE winds this morning eventually turn SE by the afternoon with speeds generally less than 10kt.

Isolated showers and storms are possible after 18Z Wednesday, but the latest guidance depicts that that should mostly stay west of the TAF sites through 00Z Thursday. Therefore, there isn't any mention in the TAFs at this time.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD not expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Wednesday Night through Saturday: MVFR or lower flight cat at times in showers/tstms, highest chance for western terminals.
Winds mainly S-SW.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Could see a period of winds/seas approaching 25 kt and 5 ft on the ocean waters W of Moriches Inlet from late day into the evening on Thu.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350.