Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Noyack, NY
December 5, 2023 9:44 AM EST (14:44 UTC)
Sunrise 6:59AM Sunset 4:22PM Moonrise 12:18AM Moonset 1:40PM
ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 623 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow and rain showers in the morning, then slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow and rain showers in the morning, then slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 623 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. Weak high pressure builds in today, eventually dissipating as low pressure develops well south and east of the area on Wednesday. High pressure moves in Thursday and weakens Thursday night. This high pressure area moves offshore Friday into Friday night. High pressure offshore builds offshore Saturday. Offshore high pressure area moves farther away farther out into atlantic Saturday night.
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. Weak high pressure builds in today, eventually dissipating as low pressure develops well south and east of the area on Wednesday. High pressure moves in Thursday and weakens Thursday night. This high pressure area moves offshore Friday into Friday night. High pressure offshore builds offshore Saturday. Offshore high pressure area moves farther away farther out into atlantic Saturday night.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KOKX 051140 CCA AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 640 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023
SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure builds in today, eventually dissipating as low pressure develops well south and east of the area on Wednesday. High pressure moves in Thursday and weakens Thursday night. This high pressure area moves offshore Friday into Friday night. High pressure offshore builds offshore Saturday. Offshore high pressure area moves farther away farther out into Atlantic Saturday night. A strong frontal system approaches from the west Sunday with an associated cold front moving across Sunday night. High pressure returns for early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Some minor adjustments were made to temperatures, dewpoints, and cloud coverage to better match observed trends. Forecast overall remains on track.
Low pressure associated with an upper-level shortwave pushes offshore with weak ridging expected today in between as a deepening trough approaches from the west. A surface high pressure will build in along with the ridge. This should allow for partly to mostly sunny skies today. Northwest winds will gradually weaken throughout the day as the pressure gradient weakens with high pressure building in. General northwesterly flow with cold air advection also happening aloft will limit afternoon highs to the low-40s.
A trough will deepen and track towards the eastern US tonight, advecting mid-level moisture back in this evening, increasing cloud cover. The deepening trough, which is centered more to our south, with initiate cyclogenesis off of the North Carolina coast. With a weak pressure gradient in place and strong cold air advection (despite increased cloud cover) we should see cold temperatures tonight. Interior areas below freezing in the upper-20s with coastal areas at or near freezing. The only exceptions are in the LI Pine Barrens which may dip into the mid/upper-20s and the NYC metro in the mid-30s.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
A strengthening surface low will move into the open Atlantic well to our south on Wednesday. The pressure gradient will however increase north winds primarily for coastal areas where wind gusts increasing to 20-25 mph late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Several CAMs show a surface trough trying to kick up some isolated precip along the northern fringes of the low pressure system to our south. This could also be helped synoptically as we will be situated in the left exit region of an approaching jet streak oriented NW to SE to our northwest. Any precip that does occur will be light and likely occur in the morning to early afternoon. With high temperatures only in the low-40s to upper-30s, both rain and snow showers will be possible depending on what time the shower passes through. Regardless, precip chances will be low and any that do do occur should remain isolated. The best chances will be on eastern LI and in SE CT since these areas will be closest to the surface trough's axis.
BY late Wednesday afternoon, any remaining precip (if any)
should have cleared and moved south, with clouds beginning to clear with dry air being advected in from the north.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Rain looking more likely for the latter half of the upcoming weekend, with gusty winds, potentially up to near 40 mph.
Uncertainty stems from timing and pressure differences with the frontal system for this so changes are likely with subsequent forecasts.
Forecast relatively coldest day Thursday and warmest day Sunday. The jet stream will still be positioned south of the region Wednesday night and then more across the local region for Thursday night. The jet levels overall exhibit a ridging pattern Thursday through the first half of the weekend and then a strong southerly jet develops Saturday night. The strong southerly jet approaches for Sunday. The cold airmass over the area Wednesday night into Thursday will gradually moderate and further exhibit increasing temperatures on average with warm air advection this weekend. High temperatures decline Monday back towards normal values for this time of year.
From large scale forecast models, the mid levels convey the trough axis moving well out into the Atlantic Wednesday night. At the surface, the pressure gradient will still be rather steep so gusty NW flow can be expected along the coast Wednesday night. While most of the gusts will be Wednesday evening in the 15 to 20 mph range, locations along the coast could reach up to 25 mph for Wednesday evening for gusts. There could even be some gusts up to near 20 mph for these locations overnight.
There will be a steady ridging trend in the mid levels for Thursday through Friday night. The ridge axis in the large scale forecast models depict the mid level ridge axis right over the local area for early Saturday.
The pressure gradient at the surface relaxes but does not totally weaken Thursday into Thursday night. The pressure gradient weakens more Friday into Friday night. While some gusts up to near 20 mph can be expected, especially along the coast, for Thursday into Thursday evening, no further gusts are expected thereafter through Friday night.
For the first half of the weekend, large scale forecast models convey a trough diving southward into Texas, with resulting upstream ridging across the Eastern US. The ridge axis will be shifting east of the local area. At the surface, high pressure will be offshore Saturday and will move farther offshore Saturday night. Meanwhile, a parent low approaching the Great Lakes is forecast to intensify.
For the latter half of the weekend, the large scale models show a deep mid level trough approaching from the southwest. At the surface, a frontal system approaches from the west with parent low continuing to strengthen into the Great Lakes. The frontal system and its associated cold front move across Sunday night, which is shown later in ECMWF model compared with the Canadian model with GFS exhibiting the most rapid speed of the front.
High pressure then returns for early next week as it builds in from the west. Forecast models show mid level SW flow after trough exits.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Surface high pressure slowly builds in overnight through Tuesday, and remains Tuesday night.
VFR.
NW winds 10-15kt, at the metro terminals, and less than 10kt at the outlying terminals overnight. Winds veer N late in the day into Tuesday evening.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Broken 4,000 ft bases late this afternoon or evening could drop to MVFR, but is less likely so has been excluded from the TAFs for now.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, slight chance of MVFR with rain/snow showers east of the New York City terminals in the morning. NNW gusts near 20kt afternoon into night, mainly coastal terminals.
Thursday-Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Buoy 44097 increased with wave heights over last 1-2 hours. This in combination with anticipated gusts near 25 kt over next few hours along with near 5 ft seas in the ocean waters south of Montauk, put up a short fused SCA until 10am this morning for the Moriches Inlet to Montauk Point ocean zone. Otherwise, for other zones, any SCA level gusts only expected to be occasional and mostly below SCA thresholds. So for other marine zones outside of Moriches to Montauk, overall below SCA conditions are expected.
Diminishing winds and waves later today and tonight means sub- SCA conditions. Sub-SCA conditions will persist through Wednesday afternoon.
Potential for SCA wind gusts on ocean Wednesday night with otherwise sub-SCA conditions for Thursday through Saturday night.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through this weekend.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ350.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 640 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023
SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure builds in today, eventually dissipating as low pressure develops well south and east of the area on Wednesday. High pressure moves in Thursday and weakens Thursday night. This high pressure area moves offshore Friday into Friday night. High pressure offshore builds offshore Saturday. Offshore high pressure area moves farther away farther out into Atlantic Saturday night. A strong frontal system approaches from the west Sunday with an associated cold front moving across Sunday night. High pressure returns for early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Some minor adjustments were made to temperatures, dewpoints, and cloud coverage to better match observed trends. Forecast overall remains on track.
Low pressure associated with an upper-level shortwave pushes offshore with weak ridging expected today in between as a deepening trough approaches from the west. A surface high pressure will build in along with the ridge. This should allow for partly to mostly sunny skies today. Northwest winds will gradually weaken throughout the day as the pressure gradient weakens with high pressure building in. General northwesterly flow with cold air advection also happening aloft will limit afternoon highs to the low-40s.
A trough will deepen and track towards the eastern US tonight, advecting mid-level moisture back in this evening, increasing cloud cover. The deepening trough, which is centered more to our south, with initiate cyclogenesis off of the North Carolina coast. With a weak pressure gradient in place and strong cold air advection (despite increased cloud cover) we should see cold temperatures tonight. Interior areas below freezing in the upper-20s with coastal areas at or near freezing. The only exceptions are in the LI Pine Barrens which may dip into the mid/upper-20s and the NYC metro in the mid-30s.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
A strengthening surface low will move into the open Atlantic well to our south on Wednesday. The pressure gradient will however increase north winds primarily for coastal areas where wind gusts increasing to 20-25 mph late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Several CAMs show a surface trough trying to kick up some isolated precip along the northern fringes of the low pressure system to our south. This could also be helped synoptically as we will be situated in the left exit region of an approaching jet streak oriented NW to SE to our northwest. Any precip that does occur will be light and likely occur in the morning to early afternoon. With high temperatures only in the low-40s to upper-30s, both rain and snow showers will be possible depending on what time the shower passes through. Regardless, precip chances will be low and any that do do occur should remain isolated. The best chances will be on eastern LI and in SE CT since these areas will be closest to the surface trough's axis.
BY late Wednesday afternoon, any remaining precip (if any)
should have cleared and moved south, with clouds beginning to clear with dry air being advected in from the north.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Rain looking more likely for the latter half of the upcoming weekend, with gusty winds, potentially up to near 40 mph.
Uncertainty stems from timing and pressure differences with the frontal system for this so changes are likely with subsequent forecasts.
Forecast relatively coldest day Thursday and warmest day Sunday. The jet stream will still be positioned south of the region Wednesday night and then more across the local region for Thursday night. The jet levels overall exhibit a ridging pattern Thursday through the first half of the weekend and then a strong southerly jet develops Saturday night. The strong southerly jet approaches for Sunday. The cold airmass over the area Wednesday night into Thursday will gradually moderate and further exhibit increasing temperatures on average with warm air advection this weekend. High temperatures decline Monday back towards normal values for this time of year.
From large scale forecast models, the mid levels convey the trough axis moving well out into the Atlantic Wednesday night. At the surface, the pressure gradient will still be rather steep so gusty NW flow can be expected along the coast Wednesday night. While most of the gusts will be Wednesday evening in the 15 to 20 mph range, locations along the coast could reach up to 25 mph for Wednesday evening for gusts. There could even be some gusts up to near 20 mph for these locations overnight.
There will be a steady ridging trend in the mid levels for Thursday through Friday night. The ridge axis in the large scale forecast models depict the mid level ridge axis right over the local area for early Saturday.
The pressure gradient at the surface relaxes but does not totally weaken Thursday into Thursday night. The pressure gradient weakens more Friday into Friday night. While some gusts up to near 20 mph can be expected, especially along the coast, for Thursday into Thursday evening, no further gusts are expected thereafter through Friday night.
For the first half of the weekend, large scale forecast models convey a trough diving southward into Texas, with resulting upstream ridging across the Eastern US. The ridge axis will be shifting east of the local area. At the surface, high pressure will be offshore Saturday and will move farther offshore Saturday night. Meanwhile, a parent low approaching the Great Lakes is forecast to intensify.
For the latter half of the weekend, the large scale models show a deep mid level trough approaching from the southwest. At the surface, a frontal system approaches from the west with parent low continuing to strengthen into the Great Lakes. The frontal system and its associated cold front move across Sunday night, which is shown later in ECMWF model compared with the Canadian model with GFS exhibiting the most rapid speed of the front.
High pressure then returns for early next week as it builds in from the west. Forecast models show mid level SW flow after trough exits.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Surface high pressure slowly builds in overnight through Tuesday, and remains Tuesday night.
VFR.
NW winds 10-15kt, at the metro terminals, and less than 10kt at the outlying terminals overnight. Winds veer N late in the day into Tuesday evening.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Broken 4,000 ft bases late this afternoon or evening could drop to MVFR, but is less likely so has been excluded from the TAFs for now.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, slight chance of MVFR with rain/snow showers east of the New York City terminals in the morning. NNW gusts near 20kt afternoon into night, mainly coastal terminals.
Thursday-Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Buoy 44097 increased with wave heights over last 1-2 hours. This in combination with anticipated gusts near 25 kt over next few hours along with near 5 ft seas in the ocean waters south of Montauk, put up a short fused SCA until 10am this morning for the Moriches Inlet to Montauk Point ocean zone. Otherwise, for other zones, any SCA level gusts only expected to be occasional and mostly below SCA thresholds. So for other marine zones outside of Moriches to Montauk, overall below SCA conditions are expected.
Diminishing winds and waves later today and tonight means sub- SCA conditions. Sub-SCA conditions will persist through Wednesday afternoon.
Potential for SCA wind gusts on ocean Wednesday night with otherwise sub-SCA conditions for Thursday through Saturday night.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through this weekend.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ350.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 20 mi | 104 min | 49°F | 29.92 | ||||
| LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather | 25 mi | 74 min | WNW 9.9G | 38°F | ||||
| NLHC3 | 29 mi | 104 min | 45°F | 29.96 | ||||
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 36 mi | 104 min | W 2.9G | 47°F | 30.01 | |||
| 44069 | 45 mi | 104 min | 40°F | 42°F | 31°F | |||
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 47 mi | 104 min | NW 4.1G | 50°F | 29.96 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFOK FRANCIS S GABRESKI,NY | 19 sm | 51 min | NW 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 43°F | 27°F | 52% | 30.01 | |
| KMTP MONTAUK,NY | 22 sm | 50 min | NW 09G18 | -- | 43°F | 28°F | 57% | 30.01 |
Wind History from FOK
(wind in knots)Noyack Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 05:30 AM EST 2.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 11:31 AM EST 0.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:40 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 04:21 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 05:35 PM EST 1.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:49 PM EST 0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 05:30 AM EST 2.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 11:31 AM EST 0.65 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:40 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 04:21 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 05:35 PM EST 1.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:49 PM EST 0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Noyack Bay, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 1.3 |
| 3 am |
| 1.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1.9 |
| 5 am |
| 2 |
| 6 am |
| 2 |
| 7 am |
| 1.9 |
| 8 am |
| 1.6 |
| 9 am |
| 1.4 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 02:53 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:10 AM EST -1.03 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 09:43 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:01 PM EST 1.00 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:40 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 03:07 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:22 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 06:36 PM EST -1.23 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:15 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:51 AM EST Last Quarter
Tue -- 02:53 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:10 AM EST -1.03 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST Sunrise
Tue -- 09:43 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:01 PM EST 1.00 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:40 PM EST Moonset
Tue -- 03:07 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:22 PM EST Sunset
Tue -- 06:36 PM EST -1.23 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:15 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 0.5 |
| 3 am |
| -0.1 |
| 4 am |
| -0.6 |
| 5 am |
| -0.9 |
| 6 am |
| -1 |
| 7 am |
| -0.9 |
| 8 am |
| -0.7 |
| 9 am |
| -0.4 |
| 10 am |
| 0.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 8 pm |
| -1 |
| 9 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Upton, NY,
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