Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Noyack, NY
November 30, 2023 7:18 PM EST (00:18 UTC)
Sunrise 6:53AM Sunset 4:24PM Moonrise 8:06PM Moonset 11:16AM
ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 603 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of drizzle in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds around 10 kt, becoming se with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Mon..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of drizzle in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds around 10 kt, becoming se with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Mon..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 603 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure off the southeastern coast will remain in control through tonight and into early Friday. A weak wave of low pressure then passes slowly through the region late Friday through Friday night. A weak wave of low pressure moves across Saturday night, followed by another weak low being nearby later Sunday and Sunday night. A weak trough moves through on Monday. A clipper low moves south and offshore for mid week.
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure off the southeastern coast will remain in control through tonight and into early Friday. A weak wave of low pressure then passes slowly through the region late Friday through Friday night. A weak wave of low pressure moves across Saturday night, followed by another weak low being nearby later Sunday and Sunday night. A weak trough moves through on Monday. A clipper low moves south and offshore for mid week.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KOKX 302353 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 653 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure off the southeastern coast will remain in control through tonight and into early Friday. A weak wave of low pressure then passes slowly through the region late Friday through Friday night. A weak wave of low pressure moves across Saturday night, followed by another weak low being nearby later Sunday and Sunday night. A weak trough moves through on Monday. A clipper low moves south and offshore for mid week, followed by high pressure nosing in from the southwest for late in the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Near zonal upper flow will remain through tonight as a dampening southern stream shortwave moves toward the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure off the southeastern states will remain in place. A return flow will remain tonight with falling temperatures leveling off as upper level clouds and warm advection increase. For this update, ended up raising temps a bit from the blend of the NBM and MOS guidance that was used for overnight lows, which will be a bit above seasonal normals for the first day of meteorological winter, December 1.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The weak upper shortwave moving through the near zonal flow continues to weaken and flatten Friday and shears out into a broad flat wave by 12Z Saturday with the wave east of the Great Lakes and into upstate New York. Lift will be weak, but increasing later Friday as warm advection strengthens with increasing isentropic lift. Also, a low level jet streak will enhance lift later Friday into Friday night. The timing for the onset of precipitation is slightly later than previous forecasts, with the rain arriving in the western and northern area mid to late Friday afternoon. There may be enough cold air in place at the onset of precipitation for a few flurries across the higher terrain of Orange County. Much of the energy with the upper wave tracks to the north of the region, and with the flat flow the system will remain progressive. Precipitation will be mainly occurring Friday night, ending late Friday and toward Saturday morning. With mid level drying and the lower levels remaining saturated, especially toward the coast, a period of light rain and drizzle will be possible.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A complicated pattern in the long term with a series of waves of low pressure to monitor.
To begin the period ridging off the SE coast and into Hispaniola will have temperatures starting off milder overall.
Temperatures should get well into the 50s to start the weekend on Saturday despite a good deal of clouds in advance of weak low pressure moving quickly from SW to NE. Mainly just some thermal forcing with this system. Vertical motion will be fairly weak with a lack of strong advection both in terms of temperature and vorticity. The system will be rather progressive, therefore look for a plain light rain with milder air preceding the system. The most likely period of measurable rain for the weekend is Sat night with the first wave, followed by another brief period of high end chance / low end likely PoPs for late in the day Sunday and Sunday night more associated with the main trough pivoting through. Rainfall amounts summed from both waves of low pressure should not amount to more than a quarter to a half inch. Thus, likely under a quarter of an inch from both disturbances.
As the low associated with the upper levels begins to deepen as it pushes away on Monday a NW flow will increase. This will usher in on a NW flow another round of seasonably cold air. By late Monday night and into Tuesday temperatures will fall to normal levels, or perhaps a degree or two below normal. By Tuesday a clipper type low is expected to drive SE across the Eastern Plains and Midwest. The GFS is the least progressive with this system and actually has some semblance of it more amplitude to it compared to the other global guidance camps. The ECMWF is the most progressive with this spoke of energy and pushes the system just south of the area and well offshore. If the GFS deterministic solution is close to being correct then a touch of light snow would be possible Tuesday night into early Wed. The consensus of the guidance was followed and stayed close to the NBM PoPs. Have slight chance PoPs in case system does attempt to be less progressive as there is some semblance of a positive height anomaly in Davis Strait / Greenland and a 50/50 low. The gut feeling at this point is the system should be progressive enough with most of the precip likely staying off shore into early Wed.
High pressure is then progged to nose in from the southwest for later in the week. A milder SW flow may return towards the end of next week. Overall temperatures should average near to slightly below normal Tuesday through Thursday.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR as high pressure remains to the south. SW winds are around 10 kts through the evening. Winds look to weaken by morning.
Fri will be VFR before a ceilings drop to MVFR aft 20Z. Pockets of IFR possible especially aft 00Z.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night: Rain with MVFR or lower cond.
Saturday: Chance of light rain or drizzle, with MVFR or lower cond possible.
Sunday: Rain with MVFR or lower cond likely. N winds G15-20kt NYC metro/coast late at night.
Monday: Chance of rain. MVFR or lower cond likely especially AM.
NW winds G20kt.
Tuesday: Chance of rain early, VFR by the afternoon. NW winds G20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
As high pressure moves farther off shore of the southeastern coast and a cold front approaches from the northwest into this evening, the pressure gradient increases slightly and southwest wind gusts and ocean seas may approach SCA levels. The pressure gradient then weakens late tonight into Friday as a southern stream low moves into the Upper Midwest and central Mississippi Valley. A SCA for the ocean waters will remain in place through tonight for the marginal conditions. With conditions likely falling below advisory levels Friday morning, have cancelled the advisory for the eastern waters that was in effect Friday morning. Then with the low weakening gradually and moving into the region late Friday into Friday night, winds and seas on the ocean will remain below advisory levels through Friday night.
For the non ocean waters winds and seas remain below advisory levels tonight through Friday night.
Sub small craft conditions are expected through much of the weekend.
Late Sunday night and into Monday and Monday night in the wake of low pressure small craft conditions will become increasingly likely on the ocean waters. During the day on Monday and also into much of Monday night on a NW wind there will also be the possibility of small craft conditions on the near shore waters due to gusts around 25 kt.
Sub small craft conditions would then likely return for all waters on Tuesday.
HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through next Thursday.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 653 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure off the southeastern coast will remain in control through tonight and into early Friday. A weak wave of low pressure then passes slowly through the region late Friday through Friday night. A weak wave of low pressure moves across Saturday night, followed by another weak low being nearby later Sunday and Sunday night. A weak trough moves through on Monday. A clipper low moves south and offshore for mid week, followed by high pressure nosing in from the southwest for late in the week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Near zonal upper flow will remain through tonight as a dampening southern stream shortwave moves toward the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure off the southeastern states will remain in place. A return flow will remain tonight with falling temperatures leveling off as upper level clouds and warm advection increase. For this update, ended up raising temps a bit from the blend of the NBM and MOS guidance that was used for overnight lows, which will be a bit above seasonal normals for the first day of meteorological winter, December 1.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The weak upper shortwave moving through the near zonal flow continues to weaken and flatten Friday and shears out into a broad flat wave by 12Z Saturday with the wave east of the Great Lakes and into upstate New York. Lift will be weak, but increasing later Friday as warm advection strengthens with increasing isentropic lift. Also, a low level jet streak will enhance lift later Friday into Friday night. The timing for the onset of precipitation is slightly later than previous forecasts, with the rain arriving in the western and northern area mid to late Friday afternoon. There may be enough cold air in place at the onset of precipitation for a few flurries across the higher terrain of Orange County. Much of the energy with the upper wave tracks to the north of the region, and with the flat flow the system will remain progressive. Precipitation will be mainly occurring Friday night, ending late Friday and toward Saturday morning. With mid level drying and the lower levels remaining saturated, especially toward the coast, a period of light rain and drizzle will be possible.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A complicated pattern in the long term with a series of waves of low pressure to monitor.
To begin the period ridging off the SE coast and into Hispaniola will have temperatures starting off milder overall.
Temperatures should get well into the 50s to start the weekend on Saturday despite a good deal of clouds in advance of weak low pressure moving quickly from SW to NE. Mainly just some thermal forcing with this system. Vertical motion will be fairly weak with a lack of strong advection both in terms of temperature and vorticity. The system will be rather progressive, therefore look for a plain light rain with milder air preceding the system. The most likely period of measurable rain for the weekend is Sat night with the first wave, followed by another brief period of high end chance / low end likely PoPs for late in the day Sunday and Sunday night more associated with the main trough pivoting through. Rainfall amounts summed from both waves of low pressure should not amount to more than a quarter to a half inch. Thus, likely under a quarter of an inch from both disturbances.
As the low associated with the upper levels begins to deepen as it pushes away on Monday a NW flow will increase. This will usher in on a NW flow another round of seasonably cold air. By late Monday night and into Tuesday temperatures will fall to normal levels, or perhaps a degree or two below normal. By Tuesday a clipper type low is expected to drive SE across the Eastern Plains and Midwest. The GFS is the least progressive with this system and actually has some semblance of it more amplitude to it compared to the other global guidance camps. The ECMWF is the most progressive with this spoke of energy and pushes the system just south of the area and well offshore. If the GFS deterministic solution is close to being correct then a touch of light snow would be possible Tuesday night into early Wed. The consensus of the guidance was followed and stayed close to the NBM PoPs. Have slight chance PoPs in case system does attempt to be less progressive as there is some semblance of a positive height anomaly in Davis Strait / Greenland and a 50/50 low. The gut feeling at this point is the system should be progressive enough with most of the precip likely staying off shore into early Wed.
High pressure is then progged to nose in from the southwest for later in the week. A milder SW flow may return towards the end of next week. Overall temperatures should average near to slightly below normal Tuesday through Thursday.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR as high pressure remains to the south. SW winds are around 10 kts through the evening. Winds look to weaken by morning.
Fri will be VFR before a ceilings drop to MVFR aft 20Z. Pockets of IFR possible especially aft 00Z.
...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night: Rain with MVFR or lower cond.
Saturday: Chance of light rain or drizzle, with MVFR or lower cond possible.
Sunday: Rain with MVFR or lower cond likely. N winds G15-20kt NYC metro/coast late at night.
Monday: Chance of rain. MVFR or lower cond likely especially AM.
NW winds G20kt.
Tuesday: Chance of rain early, VFR by the afternoon. NW winds G20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
As high pressure moves farther off shore of the southeastern coast and a cold front approaches from the northwest into this evening, the pressure gradient increases slightly and southwest wind gusts and ocean seas may approach SCA levels. The pressure gradient then weakens late tonight into Friday as a southern stream low moves into the Upper Midwest and central Mississippi Valley. A SCA for the ocean waters will remain in place through tonight for the marginal conditions. With conditions likely falling below advisory levels Friday morning, have cancelled the advisory for the eastern waters that was in effect Friday morning. Then with the low weakening gradually and moving into the region late Friday into Friday night, winds and seas on the ocean will remain below advisory levels through Friday night.
For the non ocean waters winds and seas remain below advisory levels tonight through Friday night.
Sub small craft conditions are expected through much of the weekend.
Late Sunday night and into Monday and Monday night in the wake of low pressure small craft conditions will become increasingly likely on the ocean waters. During the day on Monday and also into much of Monday night on a NW wind there will also be the possibility of small craft conditions on the near shore waters due to gusts around 25 kt.
Sub small craft conditions would then likely return for all waters on Tuesday.
HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through next Thursday.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 20 mi | 90 min | 49°F | 30.07 | ||||
| LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather | 25 mi | 78 min | WSW 19G | 48°F | ||||
| NLHC3 | 29 mi | 90 min | 44°F | 30.10 | ||||
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 36 mi | 90 min | SSW 11G | 45°F | 30.12 | |||
| 44069 | 45 mi | 78 min | 47°F | 41°F | 41°F | |||
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 47 mi | 90 min | SSW 7G | 50°F | 30.06 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFOK FRANCIS S GABRESKI,NY | 19 sm | 25 min | SW 09G18 | 10 sm | Clear | 48°F | 37°F | 66% | 30.15 | |
| KMTP MONTAUK,NY | 22 sm | 24 min | SW 06G17 | -- | 50°F | 37°F | 62% | 30.15 |
Wind History from FOK
(wind in knots)Noyack Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:01 AM EST 2.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST 0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:53 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 10:16 AM EST Moonset
Thu -- 01:08 PM EST 2.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:22 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:05 PM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 07:37 PM EST 0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:01 AM EST 2.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:46 AM EST 0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:53 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 10:16 AM EST Moonset
Thu -- 01:08 PM EST 2.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:22 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 07:05 PM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 07:37 PM EST 0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Noyack Bay, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.9 |
| 1 am |
| 2.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.9 |
| 3 am |
| 1.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.8 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.7 |
| 11 am |
| 2.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.3 |
Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:49 AM EST -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:07 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:53 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 07:52 AM EST 1.56 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:16 AM EST Moonset
Thu -- 11:12 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:27 PM EST -1.67 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:23 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 06:09 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:06 PM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 08:32 PM EST 1.06 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:27 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:49 AM EST -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:07 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:53 AM EST Sunrise
Thu -- 07:52 AM EST 1.56 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:16 AM EST Moonset
Thu -- 11:12 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:27 PM EST -1.67 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:23 PM EST Sunset
Thu -- 06:09 PM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:06 PM EST Moonrise
Thu -- 08:32 PM EST 1.06 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:27 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.9 |
| 1 am |
| -1.3 |
| 2 am |
| -1.5 |
| 3 am |
| -1.2 |
| 4 am |
| -0.7 |
| 5 am |
| -0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.7 |
| 7 am |
| 1.4 |
| 8 am |
| 1.6 |
| 9 am |
| 1.4 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.2 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 1 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| -1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| -1.6 |
| 4 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.3 |
Upton, NY,
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