Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Noyack, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Convection has shifted out of our CWA and have cancelled the rest of the flood watch. The slow moving frontal boundary will linger overnight so cannot completely rule out additional showers. It will remain muggy with patchy fog possible, especially towards day break.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
Somewhat cooler temperatures on Wednesday and lower dew points may preclude the need for a Heat Advisory. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with index values approaching the mid 90s. So, it is marginal, but Heat Advisories may need to be issued once again for Wednesday. Temperatures cool slightly more by Thursday.

With the cold front in the vicinity, shower and thunderstorms are in the forecast for both days, though just a slight chance for Wednesday and better chances for Thursday, as weak areas of low pressure ride along the boundary and aid in any weak lift that might be present with the front. SPC has a small portion of the area in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, which includes southern portions of NE NJ and SW portions of SW portions of NYC. Flooding will also continue to be a concern as the air mass really does not change much and very humid conditions remain in place.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A stalling front eventually pushes south of the area Thursday night as a midlevel shortwave and upper low exits northeast in Canada.
This front will then either remain stalled nearby or washout altogether into the weekend. At the same time, most guidance show a weak ridge building Friday into Saturday. Unfortunately, global guidance really varies on solutions Sunday into Monday. Some bring another frontal system Sunday into Monday night to our north while others keep this system too far north to impact us, opting for building high pressure at the surface instead.

Generally southerly flow is expected for most of the long-term period. This should keep dewpoints and atmospheric moisture high and continue chances for daily showers and thunderstorms Friday through Monday. Mainly slight chance POPs east with low-end chance POPs west where daily instability from daytime heating could be stronger.

Temperatures through the long-term period will generally be close to just above climatological norms. Highs each day will be in the mid 80s to low 90s. Lows each night will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
However, the difference between NBM's 25th and 75th percentiles for max temperatures is about 15 degrees Saturday through Monday, further highlighting the uncertainty and disagreement among the guidance in the long-term period.

AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A weak cold front stalls over or near the terminals through the TAF period.

Showers and thunderstorms done for all terminals for the night, with some showers lingering for KGON. Showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday afternoon. Brief MVFR possible for some terminals tonight, otherwise VFR.

High variability in wind direction through the TAF period due to proximity of the front and showers/thunderstorms. In general, a NW flow by Wednesday morning, then shifting back to the S/SW after 18Z Wed.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty with wind direction through the TAF period with nearby front and showers/thunderstorms on Wednesday.

Uncertainty with coverage and timing of showers/thunderstorms Wednesday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wed night-Fri: Periods of shwrs and tstms possible. Mainly VFR outside of shwrs and tstms.

Sat-Sun: Mainly VFR. A chance for aftn/eve shwrs and tstms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A diminishing SE swell will allow seas to diminish this evening.
SCAs continue form Fire Island Inlet through Montauk. The SCA from Fire Island inlet to Moriches inlet may be need to be cancelled within the next few hours. Otherwise, the SCAs are in effect until 2 am. Thereafter, with a weak pressure gradient, winds and waves stay below SCA criteria through Thursday.

HYDROLOGY
A marginal risk of excessive rainfall remains in place for much of the area on Wednesday and Thursday with a continued localized flash flooding threat.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A moderate rip current risk has been forecast for Wed for all the ocean beaches due to incoming 3-4 ft/7-sec swell. It is possible that a short fused high risk may be needed for Wed afternoon at the Suffolk beaches if AM beach reports there come in on the high side.

The moderate risk continues for all but the NYC beaches for Thu.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ350-353.