Shoreham, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shoreham, NY


December 8, 2023 11:58 AM EST (16:58 UTC)
Sunrise 7:02AM   Sunset 4:25PM   Moonrise  3:24AM   Moonset 2:40PM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 946 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Today..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne late this morning, then becoming S this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ300 946 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure will slowly move offshore today through Saturday. A strong cold front approaches on Sunday and passes through Sunday night. High pressure then builds in on Monday and remains in control through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreham, NY
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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KOKX 081454 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 954 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will slowly move offshore today through Saturday.
A strong cold front approaches on Sunday and passes through Sunday night. High pressure then builds in on Monday and remains in control through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Despite increasing clouds in the mid layers, temperatures have risen a few degrees in the last hour, especially across the metro area. Hourly temperatures are already approaching daily forecast highs in some of these areas, so increased high temperatures a couple of degrees or so. Otherwise, forecast is on track.

High pressure will slowly move offshore today. The core of the high pressure stays well north and south of the area. The pressure gradient will remain weak, keeping surface winds quite light, near or less than 5 kts.

The forecast models have not handled well with the cloud cover and have underestimated the amount of cloud coverage.

Increased clouds coverage above most model forecasts as a result and used the lower end of guidance for high temperatures forecast. In this case, the max temperature forecast was taken from a blend of MAV and MET guidance, which was relatively lower than NBM. Still expect a relatively warmer day than the previous, with highs in the low to mid 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
High pressure will continue to slowly move out into the Atlantic tonight. The pressure gradient remains weak and with more ridging and even some negative vorticity advection present in the mid levels, radiational cooling will be more but not totally effective.
Some clouds are expected to linger around tonight but winds are forecast to decrease and become nearly calm along the coast and for inland locations will be calm. So, used a blend of MAV and MET MOS for the forecast low temperatures, which indicated lower temperatures relative to NBM. Late tonight into early Saturday morning, put in patchy fog in locations that will have pretty much calm winds, across the interior. The fog will be possible as well along the coast but wind speeds will be a little higher compared to the interior. The fog could possibly get locally dense across parts of the interior but confidence is low on this occurring.

For Saturday, the mid level ridging trend ends during the day with a negative height trend afternoon into early evening. At the surface, a small drop in the pressure reading is expected as high pressure continues to move out into the Atlantic. This will result in some increase to the pressure gradient, driving a more southerly flow into the area. This will in turn increase the low level warm air advection. Would also expect clouds to increase as well especially in the mid to upper levels well ahead of the trough to the west. For the high temperature forecast, used the NBM 50th percentile. Because of the recent model underestimation of cloud coverage and winds still being light (at or less than 10 kts), wanted to select a lower temperature solution and the NBM 50th percentile was actually slightly cooler than the deterministic NBM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A 500mb trough digs in to our west on Sunday, then lifts during the day Monday with its axis shifting through the forecast area Monday evening. At the surface, a strong cold front approaches us on Sunday and passes through during Sunday night. While it's passing through, an area of low pressure develops along the front in Tennessee or the Middle Appalachians and passes to our north as is further develops and strengthens.

Rain chances ramp up through the day with the entire forecast area likely seeing rain by the end of the afternoon. The rain could be heavy at times mainly during Sunday night as a strong low level jet develops over us and combines with deep synoptic lift aloft and an anomalously moist air mass. Some models continue to show some elevated instability, so with deep lift, will keep in an isolated thunderstorm in the forecast. Rain chances continue into Monday even behind the front as the flow aloft remains cyclonic and we'll be within the right entrance region of an upper jet streak. Should precipitation actually occur Monday morning over the higher elevations well NW of the city, some snowflakes may mix in with showers. 1.5-2.5" of rainfall is expected Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. The heaviest rainfall is most likely to occur during Sunday night. Minor urban/small stream flooding will be possible, mainly Sunday night - confidence in this is moderate. Cannot completely rule out flash flooding either, but this is a lower confidence forecast as chances are low given flash flood guidance and the progressive nature of the storm system.

Regarding winds for this event, 925mb winds continue to be progged to reach 60-80kt over roughly the eastern half of the forecast area Sunday night. Even if a relatively stronger low level inversion were to be in place during the time that the LLJ moves through, about half of that speed could potentially reach the surface. The hourly NBM probabilities for wind gusts greater than 54 mph are at about a 50-80% chance of occurring for the immediate coastlines on Long Island and southeast Connecticut. These chances are less than 20% for Manhattan, NE NJ, the lower Hudson Valley and SW CT. Parts of Queens and Brooklyn are around 20-30% chance of this occurring. Peak wind gusts may reach wind advisory criteria for some areas along the coast east of Manhattan given the setup and potential help from heavy downpours. The current forecast has gusts 40-45mph for coastal areas and 30-40mph for most inland areas during Sunday night. I used the NBM 10th percentile for winds in this forecast. The NBM deterministic seemed too high, but given the last few runs of most available guidance, they all show gusts at or above this current forecast (with the exception of the GDPS and RDPS). When this event falls into the timeframe of some CAMs this will really help in determining how much of the LLJ will mix down to the surface.

High pressure then builds in through the rest of Monday and remains in control through Thursday with an extended period of dry weather and highs generally in the 40s.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure will slowly move offshore through the TAF period.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected. There is the potential for some MVFR to IFR fog overnight into early Saturday, mainly for outlying terminals.

Light flow is forecast through the TAF period with wind speeds below 10 kt. Wind direction will become S-SE this afternoon, variable tonight, and then SE on Saturday.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind direction may remain variable 1-3 hours longer into the afternoon.

MVFR-IFR visibilities possible early Saturday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in developing rain from west to east during the day. Slight chance of thunderstorms at night. S winds increasing with gusts 30 to 40 kt, mainly late day into night. A few gusts to 45 kt possible, especially at coastal terminals. LLWS likely with SW winds of around 50-60 kt at 2kft.

Monday: Chance of rain showers early with MVFR possible.
Otherwise, becoming VFR. W-WSW wind gusts 30-40 kt early, becoming WNW by afternoon with gusts 25-30 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. WSW-WNW gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90



MARINE
Below SCA today through Saturday.

Winds and seas should ramp up quickly during Sunday with small craft conditions quickly going to gales in all likelihood by late in the day/early evening. Solid gales are expected across all waters Sunday night, with gales likely lingering into Monday morning for most of the waters. Gales may continue well in the afternoon on the ocean.
Storm Watch conditions are possible on the eastern ocean waters based on the new forecast, but confidence in this remains low at this time. Ocean seas are likely build to 10-15 feet during this time with waves over 5 ft possible across portions of eastern Long Island Sound. SCA conds on the ocean for Tuesday as seas remain elevated.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through Saturday night.

1.50 to 2.50 inches of rain are expected from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. The heaviest rainfall is most likely to occur during Sunday night. Minor urban/small stream flooding will be possible, mainly Sunday night - confidence in this is moderate. Cannot completely rule out flash flooding either, but this is a lower confidence forecast as chances are low given flash flood guidance and the progressive nature of the storm system.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
With a strengthening southerly flow and increasing astronomical tides as we approach a new moon, there will be potential for coastal flooding with the early Monday high tide cycle. This will be the only high tide of concern for flooding. Westerly gusts are expected all day Monday and into Monday night, which should quickly push water levels down. Overall, looks like mainly a minor coastal flooding event with a very low chance of moderate coastal flooding.

The southerly flow increases Sunday into Sunday night and then becomes more westerly Monday. There is a lot of uncertainty in the surge models with total water level variance in solutions of up to near 2 to 3 ft.

The timing of the greatest southerly flow appears to coincide in between the tidal cycles so current total water level forecasts are getting to minor coastal flooding for parts of the shorelines along lower NY Harbor and Western LI Sound. The potential still exists for minor coastal flooding along the South Shore Bays but for these locations the southerly surge will be of less duration than farther east and along the Western Long Island Sound.

ETSS indicates retention of higher surge values in Western Long Island Sound and north of the South Shore Bays coastlines compared to the ocean shorelines. This shows the sloshing of water and areas that do not drain out as well will be potentially more at risk for coastal flooding. Higher end of Stevens NYHOPS ensemble surge guidance shows possible localized moderate coastal flooding for some of the South Shore Bays as well.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 20 mi59 min SSW 1G1.9 43°F 47°F30.20
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 21 mi59 min SE 4.1G5.1 43°F 51°F30.14
44069 24 mi59 min 42°F 40°F39°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 47 mi44 min SSE 2.9G4.1 44°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 48 mi59 min 43°F 47°F30.14
NLHC3 48 mi59 min 41°F 43°F30.17

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Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KHWV BROOKHAVEN,NY 12 sm62 minSSW 0310 smClear45°F34°F66%30.20
KFOK FRANCIS S GABRESKI,NY 16 sm65 minS 0410 smClear45°F34°F66%30.21
KBDR IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL,CT 18 sm66 mincalm10 smClear43°F36°F76%30.19
KHVN TWEEDNEW HAVEN,CT 18 sm65 mincalm6 smClear Haze 45°F36°F70%30.19
KISP LONG ISLAND MAC ARTHUR,NY 19 sm62 mincalm10 smMostly Cloudy45°F36°F70%30.19

Wind History from HWV
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Herod Point, Long Island Sound, New York
   
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Herod Point
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Fri -- 12:47 AM EST     0.82 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     5.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:25 PM EST     0.64 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:40 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:31 PM EST     5.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Herod Point, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet
12
am
1
1
am
0.8
2
am
1.3
3
am
2.3
4
am
3.5
5
am
4.7
6
am
5.6
7
am
6
8
am
5.7
9
am
4.8
10
am
3.6
11
am
2.4
12
pm
1.3
1
pm
0.7
2
pm
0.8
3
pm
1.4
4
pm
2.5
5
pm
3.7
6
pm
4.7
7
pm
5.3
8
pm
5.3
9
pm
4.7
10
pm
3.6
11
pm
2.5



Tide / Current for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
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Fri -- 02:18 AM EST     1.22 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:21 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:33 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:43 AM EST     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:23 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:39 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:44 PM EST     0.97 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:39 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:52 PM EST     -1.36 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots
12
am
0.2
1
am
0.9
2
am
1.2
3
am
1.2
4
am
1
5
am
0.4
6
am
-0.3
7
am
-0.9
8
am
-1.2
9
am
-1.3
10
am
-1.1
11
am
-0.7
12
pm
-0.3
1
pm
0.4
2
pm
0.9
3
pm
1
4
pm
0.8
5
pm
0.4
6
pm
-0.2
7
pm
-0.8
8
pm
-1.2
9
pm
-1.4
10
pm
-1.1
11
pm
-0.7




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Upton, NY,



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