Sunday, July25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shoreham, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:16PM Sunday July 25, 2021 11:54 AM EDT (15:54 UTC) Moonrise 9:48PMMoonset 7:05AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ331 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny To The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 1018 Am Edt Sun Jul 25 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Today..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely late this morning, then chance of showers and tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1018 Am Edt Sun Jul 25 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front approaches late in the day and passes through late tonight into Monday morning. Weak high pressure then regains control through most of Tuesday. A cold front approaches late in the day and passes through during Tuesday night. A series of cold fronts will pass through the area for the second half of the week with high pressure returning next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreham, NY
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location: 41, -72.86     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 251440 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1040 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front moves through late tonight into Monday morning. Weak high pressure then regains control through most of Tuesday. A cold front approaches late in the day and passes through during Tuesday night. A series of cold fronts will pass through the area for the second half of the week with high pressure returning next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Much of the showers from the warm frontal passage this morning have exited east with only some scattered showers remaining. Cloud cover is still extensive and for this update adjusted temperatures as they are currently in the low 70s. Temperatures should gradually continue to rise through the late morning, but slightly reduced the high temperatures for today.

CAPEs in the warm sector will be rising with a pre-frontal surface trough and mid level shortwave potentially supplying focuses for afternoon convection. The best combination of instability and lift will be over the NW half of the forecast area during the daytime hours, then the best chance of showers and storms will be generally over southern sections tonight. A trailing cold front then begins to moves through during the overnight hours, keeping the shower/TSTM chance in the forecast through the night. TSTMs could be strong to severe this afternoon and evening with the greatest threat of severe weather being tied to wind gusts. Bulk shear will be in the range of 25-30kt during this time with some directional shear as well, coinciding with CAPES in the range of 1500-2500 J/kg from around the city to points NW.

There is at least some concern for the threat of at least minor urban and poor drainage flooding as PWATs increase to 1.75-2.00 inches, and the low level flow with the approaching cold front becomes aligned with the flow aloft. So although storm motion shouldn't be too slow, there is a threat of training cells during a time of high moisture and decent instability.

NBM looked good for temperatures through the near term. Heat indices expected to reach the mid 90s for parts of Union County, but 2-day criteria is not expected to be met.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. The cold front will slowly sink south of the forecast area through the day Monday, with low chances of showers and storms early on along the south shore of LI. Then sunshine gets filtered through some cirrus into early afternoon with the cold front nearby. Models have cooled off slightly over the past 24 hours regarding temps aloft. Highs generally in the upper 80s for most areas with some lower 90s in NYC and NE NJ. Progged RH and wind direction profiles in the boundary layer should preclude heat indices from reaching the mid 90s as dewpoints drop in the afternoon in many spots.

Weak high pressure keeps most of Tuesday dry, but an approaching cold front could bring scattered showers and thunderstorms starting late afternoon and lasting through the night. 850 mb temps warm up about a degree from Monday, so expecting highs to be about 2 degrees warmer than Monday in most cases. Boundary layer RH still looks low enough such that heat indices are mostly 90-94.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Mean upper trough will establish itself across the Northeast during this period. A series of disturbances in the NW flow aloft will then send a couple of cold fronts through the area during this time, the first moving through and off the East Coast by Wednesday morning, and the second Thursday night into Friday. At the same time, an upper high over the intermountain west will strengthen and expand eastward into Mid Mississippi Valley.

The uncertainty in this time period will reside in the timing of the shortwave energy dropping into the mean trough, thus impacting cold frontal timing. Global models are in decent agreement, but there are timing differences, in particular with the late week cold frontal passage, though the ECMWF and GFS seem pretty similar in their solutions with the current model runs.

A round of showers and thunderstorms can be expected along and ahead of each cold frontal passage. In addition, post-frontal convection will be possible Wednesday afternoon in the NW flow aloft with steepening lapse rates due to cold air aloft. The set up is there for a few strong and/or severe thunderstorms with a strengthening wind profile. The key is how much can the airmass destabilize. As of now, convection looks isolated. Warm advection convection will then be a possibility on Thursday ahead of what looks to be nighttime cold frontal passage Thursday night into Friday morning.

More seasonable temperatures are expected for the second half of the week heading into next weekend, with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the 60s to around 70. Cooler conditions are possible overnight well inland with the possibility of radiational cooling, but that will be dependent on cloud coverage an wind speeds.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A weak cold front approaches this afternoon and crosses late tonight. Showers have exited most terminals this morning with exception of KGON. MVFR ceilings have developed for most terminals. These lower clouds are expected to scatter out for this afternoon with a return to VFR before more showers and thunderstorms develop and move in from the north and west which could bring brief MVFR to possibly IFR conditions at times. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions expected for remainder of TAF period.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon into this evening. Some of these storms could be strong with gusty winds of 30 to 40 kt. An isolated severe storm could also move through with gusts of 50+ kt, but there is a low chance of this occurring.

Thunderstorm coverage first noted with VCTS mid afternoon and then with a tempo for relatively higher chances of a thunderstorm late afternoon into early evening. Timing generally appears for KSWF 20-23Z and for NYC terminals 21-00Z. Unsure of how well thunderstorms hold together thereafter so no tempos for thunder for time being east of NYC terminals.

S to SW winds will be around 10-15 kt, with gusts 20 kt. Potential for S 15-20 kt winds with gusts 25 kt for south coastal terminals into the afternoon. S to SW winds subside to around 10 kt this evening and will shift more to the W late tonight at around 5 kt.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty . MVFR end time could be off by 2-3 hours.

Scattered TSRA potential between 19Z and 02Z, with brief IFR/MVFR conds and isolated strong to severe wind gusts.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Monday. VFR. W/NW winds, late day sea breeze. Tuesday. Mainly VFR. W/SW winds, afternoon sea breeze. Wednesday-Thursday. Chance of MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. An increase in southerly fetch today into tonight will lead to building ocean seas. Daytime wind gusts are also expected to reach 25-30 kt for much of the waters with exception of NY Harbor and Western Long Island Sound. Winds and seas diminish tonight, but seas up to 5 ft are still likely Monday morning. The SCA here has therefore been extended through Monday morning. Elsewhere, the SCA ends early this evening.

Winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria Monday afternoon through the remainder of the forecast period.

HYDROLOGY. Although storm motion with any thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight won't be too slow, there is a threat of training cells along with high moisture content. There is therefore a threat of minor urban and poor drainage flooding, and even a low threat of flash flooding.

It is too early to know if thunderstorms mid to late week could pose any hydrologic impacts.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A high rip current risk is forecast for today due to a strengthening onshore flow and a building southerly swell. This will be followed by a moderate rip current risk on Monday as winds weaken with a lingering southerly swell.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331- 332-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JC NEAR TERM . JC/MW SHORT TERM . JC LONG TERM . JP AVIATION . JM/JP MARINE . JC/JP HYDROLOGY . JC/JP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . JP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 14 mi174 min SSW 19 G 25 70°F 73°F2 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 20 mi54 min SSW 18 G 23 71°F 73°F1014.8 hPa (-1.0)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 21 mi54 min SSW 8.9 G 16 71°F 73°F1013.2 hPa (-1.3)
44069 24 mi54 min SSW 18 G 23 72°F 80°F69°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 38 mi69 min S 14 G 19 72°F 67°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 47 mi69 min S 12 73°F 68°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 47 mi44 min SSW 17 G 20 69°F 1014.4 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 48 mi44 min S 19 G 23 71°F 72°F1015.4 hPa62°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 48 mi54 min 69°F 71°F1015.3 hPa (-0.6)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 48 mi54 min 69°F 67°F1015.4 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY12 mi58 minS 14 G 1910.00 miOvercast72°F64°F76%1014.7 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY16 mi61 minS 10 G 1710.00 miOvercast70°F63°F79%1015.3 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT19 mi61 minS 12 G 208.00 miOvercast73°F66°F79%1013.8 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi58 minS 12 G 2110.00 miOvercast71°F66°F84%1014.3 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT19 mi62 minSSW 17 G 2210.00 miOvercast73°F65°F76%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWV

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE7SE7SE9S8SE9S8S7S5S6S6S5SE5S5S6S7S7S6S6S9S11S12S14S14
G19
1 day ago6NW9NW9NW8N6S9S7S6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNW5CalmN6NW63NE3Calm
2 days ago4NW4N7S8S9S7S7SW5SW3SW3CalmCalmN3CalmNW5NW4NW5CalmCalmCalmNW5NW7NW11NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Herod Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Herod Point
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Sun -- 12:19 AM EDT     7.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:38 AM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 12:52 PM EDT     6.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:55 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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76.85.84.22.40.8-0.3-0.40.31.73.44.96.16.45.84.63.11.50.4-00.51.83.45

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
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Sun -- 01:53 AM EDT     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:25 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:54 AM EDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:50 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:05 PM EDT     -1.75 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     1.82 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.2-1.8-1.9-1.7-1.2-0.40.61.31.51.30.7-0.1-0.9-1.5-1.7-1.6-1.1-0.40.61.51.81.71.30.4

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