Asharoken, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Asharoken, NY


December 5, 2023 7:08 PM EST (00:08 UTC)
Sunrise 7:01AM   Sunset 4:26PM   Moonrise  12:22AM   Moonset 1:44PM 

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 556 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain and snow showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Slight chance of rain and snow showers in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sun night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

ANZ300 556 Pm Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. Weak high pressure gives way tonight to a developing low pressure that develops well to the south of the area on Wednesday. High pressure noses in from the south on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the west. The warm front will lift north of the region Friday into Saturday. A strong frontal system approaches from the west Sunday with its associated cold front moving across Sunday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Asharoken, NY
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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 052335 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 635 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure gives way tonight to a developing low pressure that develops well to the south of the area on Wednesday. High pressure noses in from the south on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the west. The warm front will lift north of the region Friday into Saturday. A strong frontal system approaches from the west Sunday with its associated cold front moving across Sunday night. High pressure returns for early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
For this update only tweaked up cloud cover a bit through the remainder of the evening based on latest satellite trends, otherwise no meaningful changes with this update. Previous discussion follows.

Weak mid-level ridging over the area gives way to an incoming shortwave embedded in a large-scale trough approaching from the west tonight and into Wednesday. The energy associated with this shortwave is forcing a weak surface low over the southern Great Lakes. At this time, this is resulting in very light snowfall over much of western Pennsylvania. As the moisture associated with this weak disturbance approaches the area tonight, much of the weak precipitation is expected to dissipate as it runs into drier air over the area. That being said, left a slight chance of snow showers, possibly mixed with rain showers for coastal areas, for much of the area tonight. Otherwise, overcast skies are anticipated and lows tonight will be in the middle to upper 20s for outlying areas with low temperatures in the low to middle 30s for the NYC metro.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As the shortwave energy approaches the East Coast on Wednesday, cyclogenesis occurs off of the Carolina coast. The area will remain well to the north of the low and the most likely sensible weather from the deepening of the low will be an increase in winds into the afternoon and evening on Wednesday.

As the energy from the weak surface wave over the Ohio Valley transfers to the developing coastal low, low level moisture may increase a bit. Increased moisture combined with cooler temperatures aloft due to the placement under an upper level trough, may result in the development of some instability showers during the day on Wednesday, though much of these should be confined to the eastern portion of the area. High temperatures on Wednesday will only be in the upper 30s to near 40 for much of the area so any of these showers that develop will have a chance of being snow showers. The earlier in the day they develop, the high the chance at seeing snow, but even if surface temperatures are above freezing into Wednesday, cool temperatures aloft may support the occurrence of at least a mix with snow in any shower that develops.

Any showers end Wednesday afternoon and into Wednesday night with skies clearing in the wake of the departing low. A brisk NW wind advects in cold air such that low temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be in the 20s for much of the area. Some outlying spots may drop into the upper teens.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Stayed fairly close to the NBM throughout the period. A quasi- zonal flow to begin the period on Thursday becomes increasingly amplified into the weekend. A trough over the Northern Rockies will amplify as it progresses east. This will be the system that impacts our sensible weather late in the weekend. Afterwards, high pressure should return into next week.

A warm front will reside just west of the area and nearby into Thursday. This will bring more in the way of clouds into the area, especially further west. A cP air mass will stick around through Thursday which should keep the area dry despite more in the way of clouds. Temperatures will average a good 5 degrees or so below normal before the air mass begins to push off the coast Thursday night. On Friday the warm front is expected to progress east and lift north of the area. This will lead to an increasing southerly component to the wind direction. An eventual SW flow will get temperatures a few degrees above normal by Friday afternoon with a fair amount of sun. Towards Saturday the warm front should get well north of the area, and thus a mild south to southwest flow will prevail. Warm advection should promote temperatures at 850 mb to get to around 8 to 10 C. Therefore temperatures should get into the middle 50s, a good 10 degrees above normal to begin the weekend. It is possible that temperatures could get even warmer than currently progged, but NBM members were not straying far from the mean, thus did not get more aggressive with daytime maxes on Saturday but could easily see it get another 3 degrees or so warmer than currently progged.

The trough then swings into the east for Sunday and Sunday night. There is some spread among the ensembles with the timing, but confidence remains high for a strong frontal system to work through later in the day Sunday into early Monday AM. Other than a few showers Sunday morning, most of the morning may remain dry. For Sunday afternoon look for rain to develop from W-SW to E-NE as a good conveyor belt of moisture begins to work up along the coastal plain. Despite cloud cover and rain look for temperatures to top out close to 60. The steadiest rain based on the latest consensus guidance looks to take place Sunday night, with much of the rain falling the first half of Sunday night. Standardized anomalies for mean IVT from the ECMWF and the NAEFS run at +3 to +4, with PWATs standardized anomalies at around +3. NBM probabilities of greater than 2 inches of rain get to around 30 percent for NW portions of the area, and probabilities of greater than 1 inch get to around 70 percent for NW sections. Therefore rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches has a good chance for late Sunday / early Mon AM. Winds should get rather gusty late in the day Sunday through Monday morning. Winds out of the south with gusts of around 40 to 45 mph are possible, with the strongest winds likely Sunday evening / night. The cold front should clear the area towards daybreak on Monday with the winds switching to the W. The pressure gradient should weaken gradually during the day Monday. Look for Monday to dry out with blustery and cooler conditions.
Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will be in place for the remainder of the period.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure remains in control. Meanwhile, a deepening offshore low will pass to the south and east during Wednesday.

VFR. A slight chance of a flurry or light snow shower mainly east of the city terminals late tonight through Wednesday morning, with the best chances at KGON where a PROB30 was included in the forecast, with a slight chance of MVFR if snow showers/flurries occur.

Light northerly winds at the metro terminals, with winds light and variable at the outlying terminals. Winds at the metro terminals may become light and variable late this evening into the overnight. Winds at the metro terminals and east will increase from the north around 09Z, and into Wednesday morning.
NNW gusts around 20kt develop during the afternoon.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: VFR. NNW gusts near 20kt, mainly at coastal terminals.

Thursday-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR in the morning with chc S gusts 20-25kt.
Rain/MVFR/IFR/LLWS mainly in the afternoon and night with a chance of S-SW gusts 30-40kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon, winds increase to marginal SCA criteria with gusts to 25 kt on the ocean zones as the pressure gradient tightens over the area with the development of a coastal low well to the south. SCA gusts on the ocean zones likely continues into the first half of Wednesday night before falling below 25 kt by Thursday morning.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Thursday through Saturday night with ocean seas averaging close to 3 ft. Winds and seas should ramp up quickly during Sunday with small craft conditions quickly going to Gales in all likelihood by later in the day. Solid gales are expected across all waters Sunday night, with gales likely lingering into Monday morning for the eastern waters.

HYDROLOGY
An inch to an inch and a half of rain is possible Sunday and Sunday night. At this time only minor and localized hydrologic impacts appear possible, though confidence remains low this far out.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 15 mi69 min NE 5.1G8 38°F 51°F29.98
44022 - Execution Rocks 22 mi54 min WNW 7.8 43°F 30.0228°F
44069 25 mi69 min 41°F 43°F31°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 26 mi69 min NW 7G8 42°F 49°F30.04
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 31 mi69 min NNE 7G9.9 38°F 48°F30.04
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi69 min 41°F 49°F29.97
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 45 mi69 min N 6G8 42°F 30.03
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi59 min 1.9G3.9 52°F1 ft29.99
BGNN6 49 mi69 min 42°F 47°F30.02

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Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KBDR IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL,CT 16 sm16 minNE 0510 smOvercast39°F27°F60%30.04
KFRG REPUBLIC,NY 19 sm15 mincalm10 smOvercast39°F27°F60%30.04
KISP LONG ISLAND MAC ARTHUR,NY 19 sm12 minNE 0510 smOvercast39°F27°F60%30.03
KHPN WESTCHESTER COUNTY,NY 20 sm12 minNE 0310 smMostly Cloudy37°F27°F65%30.02

Wind History from BDR
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Eatons Neck Point, Long Island, New York
   
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Eatons Neck Point, Long Island, New York, Tide feet



Tide / Current for Greens Ledge, Connecticut
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Greens Ledge
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Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 04:44 AM EST     6.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:02 AM EST     1.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:44 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:02 PM EST     6.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:23 PM EST     1.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Greens Ledge, Connecticut, Tide feet
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1.9
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3.1
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4.5
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5.7
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6.5
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6.7
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6.1
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5.1
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3.9
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2.8
10
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1.9
11
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1.5
12
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1.8
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2.8
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4
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5.2
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6.1
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6.5
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6.2
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5.3
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4
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2.8
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1.8
11
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1.2




Weather Map
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Upton, NY,



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