Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Manchester, IN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Post frontal stratocu should continue to slowly mix out with mostly clear skies overnight. Winds should diminish as well, but may remain just strong enough to limit any potential for frost across far southern lower MI where temperatures look to dip into the upper (and maybe mid) 30s. Given this and likely short duration of temps in the 30s will hold on any frost headlines.

Focus then turns to a weak disturbance approaching the region Tuesday and Tues night. Low level increase in theta-e attempts to commence with gradient setting up across the northern tiers of our area (US 6 north). Many models shows one or more small clusters of showers/isol storms moving west to east along this gradient being fed by some elevated instability (Showalters go slightly negative)
and a narrow plume of PWATs around an inch pooling along the gradient. Not overly impressed at the setup, but maintenance of no more than chc pops across the N/NW appears warranted for now.

Warm front surges north Wednesday with the forecast area solidly in a strong sw flow. Highs will climb into the 70s Wednesday and near 80 for some areas Thursday. A deeper trough will be slowly taking shape across the western US by Thursday with 2 weaker disturbances moving through the northern and southern streams. Both of these waves should bring increasing chances for showers and storms maybe as early as Thursday afternoon, but more likely late Thursday night into Friday night. With the main trough well west of the Gulf, worried that influx of moisture may be somewhat limited (sfc dewpoints struggle to reach 60 degrees). Bit worried about overall timing and coverage in any given period, but trends seem to suggest Fri night as maybe the best shot. Cat pops were introduced, but these could be overdone given the moisture concerns. A brief cooldown occurs Sat into Sat night with moderating temperatures again into the start of next week as the aformentioned continues its slow eastward push (barely to the 4 Corners area by 12Z Mon). Weak waves continue to ride NW along the eastern side of the trough that could bring periodic shower chances, but any larger scale events should remain to our west for the time being.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1257 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

It will be a tranquil, quiet weather day today. Skies will continue to clear out overnight as high pressure builds over the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes regions. Winds will become light and varible in the next few hours and persist through the morning. By the afternoon, expect lots of sunshine and light winds out of the south.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.