Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cutchogue, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A shortwave that's helping to produce some showers will be passing to our south through mid-morning with a slight chance that the northern extent of these showers brush the southernmost zones. This shouldn't be an issue by the end of this morning, with high pressure building in from the NW for the rest of the day and through tonight.

Still somewhat breezy through at least early afternoon before winds become lighter later today. A dry NW flow will promote above-normal temperatures with some compressional heating via downsloping, and for south-facing coasts, winds should be strong enough to prevent sea breezes pushing in during the day. Leaned more toward the NBM 50th percentile, which is warmer than the deterministic NBM given the temperatures at the top of the mixed layer. See the fire weather section below for potential impacts of the dry and breezy conditions.

The surface ridge axis moves into the forecast area tonight with winds continuing to weaken. Strong radiational cooling conditions should therefore develop in the usual spots as winds become calm and cirrus probably holds off through the night. NBM as usual looks too warm for these areas, so instead blended MET and MAV MOS. This results in lows in the mid-upper 30s well NW of city and in parts of the LI Pine Barrens Region, however no frost concerns at this time.



SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Surface ridge axis will be over or just to our east through the day on Thursday with still some slight ridging aloft. This will keep us dry through the daytime hours. High temperatures near normal.

Surface low pressure shifts NE through the Great Lakes Region during Thursday night. A leading warm front is progged to reach our doorstep by daybreak Friday. Increased moisture with 850mb theta-e advection and isentropic lift bring chances (40-50%) of light rain/drizzle/showers during the night.

The warm front lifts north through the area on Friday with mainly afternoon and nighttime showers and thunderstorms possible as a cold front approaches. While strong thunderstorms will be possible for roughly the western half of the forecast area based on progged CAPE and shear profiles in the afternoon and evening, severe storms are not anticipated at this time. No flooding impacts are expected either. NBM looked good for high temps, but adjusted downward in some spots with a southerly flow expected off the waters.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
An unsettled start (at least) to the long term as a cold front works east through the region Saturday. Guidance still indicates frontal wave development along the nearby boundary, likely enhancing rainfall and leading to periods of showers much of the day. Can't rule out a few thunderstorms as well, though instability appears relatively low and severe weather is not expected.

Thereafter, wildly diverging solutions amongst global guidance continues to lead to considerable uncertainty and low confidence into next week. One camp, which includes the GFS/GEFS, has a less amplified, more progressive trough that advances far enough east before closing off into an upper low near the Canadian Maritimes.
This allows high pressure to build in locally and dries the region out. Meanwhile, EPS and GEPS members largely have a sharper, slower trough that closes off to our west, meandering within the Eastern CONUS for several days and leading to a much more dreary and wet outlook. The 00Z ECM, for example, advertises a washout, producing 4 to 5 inches of rainfall across portions of the local Tri State thru Monday, with more beyond that as the system lingers thru mid next week. The same run of the GFS yields barely a half inch, all with the frontal wave on Saturday. With this large spread, used the national blend for PoPs, yielding chance (25-40%) Sunday and beyond.
The associated energy is just moving onshore western Canada, and additional sampling over the next day or so should help resolve the solution.

Given the potential for these persistent unsettled conditions, temperatures will be highly dependent on the synoptic outcome and have stayed close to consensus with this update.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
An approaching cold front tracks through the region this morning.
High pressure builds in thereafter from the north and west.

VFR thru the TAF period.

S/SW winds begin to veer and diminish ahead of the approaching cold front early this morning, shifting to the W-NW by daybreak. Expect gusts around 20 kt to carry into the afternoon, although vertical wind profiles do begin to weaken. However, we are often more efficient with deeper mixing and stronger winds in W/NW flow, especially of late. Gusts diminish early this evening across the region, with lightening flow veering northerly into Thu AM.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts become more occasional early this morning.

Wind shift with the cold front and onset of strengthening NW flow may vary by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Late tonight and Thursday: VFR.

Thursday night: Chance of showers after midnight with MVFR cond possible.

Friday: Chance showers/tstms with MVFR or lower cond from mid afternoon into the night. S winds G20kt at the NYC metros and along the coast.

Saturday: Showers likely and possibly a tstm with MVFR or lower cond expected.

Sunday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond likely.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA remains only on the ocean waters at this point, and this will be due mainly to residual elevated wave heights. Sub-advisory conditions by late afternoon, continuing through Friday morning.
With southerly winds increasing Friday afternoon, expecting a return to SCA conditions at least on the ocean and possibly on some of the other waters as well.

Ocean seas may linger near 5 ft thru late Saturday before lowering.
Sub SCA conditions then expected on all waters early next week.

FIRE WEATHER
NW winds pick up and will likely gust to around 25 mph at times through early afternoon. Winds then likely to diminish thereafter.
Minimum RH levels are expected to be 20 to 30 percent, resulting in an elevated risk of fire spread. Special Weather Statements have been collaborated with state agencies and remain posted for all of our NY, NJ, and CT zones today.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350- 353.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ355.