Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mattituck, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Potential for periods of rain Thursday through the weekend.
Impacts appear to be limited at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Once a cold front pushes through Wednesday night, it will stall over or near the area through the weekend. Shortwave energy pivoting through the base of a longwave trough will likely generate multiple waves of low pressure that will move along the stalled front. Exact location of this front will determine timing, location and amount of rainfall.

General consensus from latest guidance has the front placed offshore through much of this period, but there is still a good amount of uncertainty. A very large spread exists in the latest NBM QPF percentiles. Looking at 10th and 90th percentiles for multiple 24 hour periods Thursday through Monday, the 10th percentile is completely dry each period while the 90th percentile maxes out with the 24 hour period ending 00z Sunday with 1.5 to 2.5 inches across the area. The wetter solution could potentially bring periods of heavy rain and in turn a flooding threat, but this is a low probability at this time.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weak low pressure continues to move farther east of the region with weak troughing remaining over the region.

Mainly VFR or MVFR this morning, isolated IFR. Any sub-VFR sites become VFR into the early afternoon. VFR expected through the remainder of the TAF period. Low chance of low stratus late tonight, mainly for coastal terminals.

Can not rule out a few isolated showers or a thunderstorm this afternoon, but confidence too low to include in the TAF at this time.

Winds generally out of the N/NE this AM, possibly light and variable. Sea breezes develop late this morning and this afternoon with most terminals getting more southerly winds except for KHPN and KSWF where more northerly to northwest flow is forecast.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of category timing may be off by an hour from the TAFs.

Timing of sea breeze today could be a few hours off.

Low chance of a SHRA/TSRA this afternoon, mainly 20Z-00Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower at times.

Friday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower at times.

Saturday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower at times.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A light pressure gradient will lead to sub-SCA conditions through the weekend.

Rip Currents: While winds will be light today, a lingering 3 ft 7s swell will continue, directed perpendicular to the coast. Sticking with the moderate risk, but there is potential for periods of a high risk, especially in the mid to late afternoon with the outgoing tide. Will continue to monitor observed swell at area buoys. A higher wave height or period than forecast may result in an upgrade to a high risk. A low risk is then expected on Wednesday with continued light winds and a weakening swell.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.