Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Haven, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The anomalously deep closed upper low and longwave trough swing through the area today. At the surface, the area will be sandwiched between deepening low pressure over eastern Canada and broad high pressure to the south.

Main story today is the cold and windy conditions. The tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned surface features will result in sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph. Model soundings show deep mixing and even if this isn't realized, even shallow mixing will tap into some stronger winds. Confidence was high enough to go above NBM 90th percentile and blend in some model 900mb winds to get peak forecast gusts mainly between 35 and 40 mph. Some isolated gusts may be even higher. As for temperatures, went slightly lower than the NBM given how anomalous the air mass is and how low NBM sky cover was. High temperatures likely don't make it out of the lower 40s for most.

As mentioned before, NBM looked too low with sky cover given this set up with a cold pool and cyclonic flow overhead. Widespread cu development is expected. Additionally, CAMs continue to show some showers and lake streamers moving near or through the area. Given the cold boundary layer, if showers do occur it will likely fall as snow for many, with maybe more of a rain/snow mix for Long Island. Accumulations are not expected, but across the far northern interior a dusting can't be ruled on on grassy surfaces.

Cold temperatures expected again tonight, just a few degrees warmer than last night. With the growing season ending for many locations today, no frost/freeze headlines are in effect for tonight. Where the growing season is still ongoing (NYC and southern Nassau) winds will likely hold off widespread frost development.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A relatively quiet short term period is expected with a persistent westerly flow. A weak frontal system moves through Wednesday into Thursday, but at this time does not look to result in any precipitation for the area. Kept forecast dry, but some isolated showers can not be completely ruled out.

Temperatures warm up a bit, but still remain below normal for mid November. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows in the 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Key points:

* Dry conditions through Saturday as high pressure builds into the region.

* A frontal system approaches late Saturday and moves across the region Monday with chances for light light rain.

* Temperatures slightly below seasonal normals much of the time, and around 5 to 8 degrees below normal Friday night through Saturday night.

* Brisk westerly flow continues through Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Low pressure lifts north and east away from the region, with high pressure building in from the southwest through tonight.

Mainly VFR. The only exception may be with isolated snow showers briefly leading to MVFR conditions for terminals NW of NYC. Isolated flurries/snow showers also possible elsewhere, but should remain VFR in this activity.

WNW winds will increase this morning, becoming 15-25 kt sustained with gusts 30-35 kt. Peak gusts to around 40 kt possible, especially in the afternoon. Gusts continue overnight into Wed AM, though speeds lower slightly and flow backs WSW.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Peak gusts around 40 kt possible, especially this afternoon.

Isolated snow showers/flurries possible late morning into the afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Wednesday: VFR. WSW winds G20-25kt.

Thursday_Friday: VFR. WNW-NW winds G15-25kt.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A Gale Warning is in effect for all waters starting at 6 AM this morning. Gusts peak this afternoon around 40 kt and seas peak this evening at 10 to 12 feet. Additionally waves on the central and eastern LI sound will likely reach 5 to 7 feet.

Conditions gradually decrease tonight and the Gale Warning may be able to come down earlier than currently forecast. However, Small Craft Advisory conditions could continue on the ocean waters for several days. Sub advisory conditions are then expected across the forecast waters Friday through Saturday night.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for CTZ009>012.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ071>075- 078>081-176>179.
NJ...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NJZ006-104-106- 108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338- 340-345.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.