Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Haven, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:26PM Sunday July 5, 2020 10:10 PM EDT (02:10 UTC) Moonrise 9:10PMMoonset 5:34AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 720 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed..S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 720 Pm Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak surface low pressure trough will persist nearby into Monday, before a backdoor cold front passes through Monday afternoon into night. This front will lift toward the area on Tuesday afternoon, and lift north by Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure will then briefly build in through Thursday. A southern low will approach and track near the area from the south Friday into Saturday, with a series of weak fronts moving through the area this weekend into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Haven, NY
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location: 41.03, -72.27     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 052345 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 745 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak surface low pressure trough and frontal boundary will persist nearby into Monday night, while weak upper level disturbances pass across. A warm front will lift toward the area on Tuesday, and lift north by Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure will then briefly build in through Thursday. A southern low will approach and track near the area from the south Friday into Saturday, with a series of weak fronts moving through the area this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. Potential for an isolated shower or thunderstorm this evening over interior SW CT this evening across interior CT in response to shortwave energy moving through Central/SE New England.

Otherwise dry tonight with lows from 70-75 in and just outside NYC, to the lower 60s in the interior valleys well inland.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. A sfc frontal boundary and thermal trough should be in the vicinity on Monday. Another very warm day expected, with highs 90-95 across much of the interior and along the north shore of Long Island, with mid/upper 80s in the higher elevations and along south facing coastlines. Another mid level shortwave trough dropping down from the NW should trigger sct to numerous showers/tstms late Mon afternoon into Mon night, with the best chances across the NYC metro area into northern NJ. Combo of MLCAPE as high as 1500 J/kg and undirectional 0-6 km NW shear of about 35 kt suggest multicell organization possible, and steep low level lapse rates/relatively dry mid levels could lead to damaging wind gusts with the strongest cells.

Chances for showers/tstms could continue overnight Mon night with the sfc boundary remaining nearby and additional mid level shortwave energy sliding across, but not expecting this to be problematic attm. Low temps Mon night should be in the lower 70s across the NYC metro area, with 60s farther north and east.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. The region will lay on the northern edge of broad CONUS ridging through the week. This will be a dirty ridge though, with a weak closed low over the Mississippi River Valley early in the week slowly shearing/lifting towards the area to end the week. Thereafter, models with better agreement of amplifying northern stream troughing approaching/entering the area this weekend, and likely remaining over the area through at least early next week. Before then, a midweek northern stream shortwave moving through S Canada may buckle the ridge enough to provide a trigger for afternoon diurnal convection, particularly Wed.

At the surface, the area will initially be under the influence of a moderating maritime airmass Tuesday with surface high pressure slowly sliding east of the Canadian maritimes in wake of departing shortwave energy. Models have trended with a warm front closer to the area on Tuesday, and perhaps impinging on far SW parts of the region. This warm front will be the leading edge of a hot and humid and unstable airmass. Forcing for convection is not distinct at this time, with main trigger being vort energy riding along the periphery of the ridge. If the warm front can work into or close to portions of the region, with sufficient trigger, there is a conditional threat of isolated strong to severe storms across far SW portions of the region (NYC/NE NJ). Further N and E, perhaps W LI and Lower Hud Valley and instability should be more elevated with low-level onshore flow, but with weak steering flow, and PWAT increasing to 2+", this presents potential for heavy downpours and a localized flash flood threat. Working farther NE towards SE CT, conditions will likely be more stable. Something to monitor, as a warm front farther to the SW will limit the severe and flash flood threat over area, while farther NE over the area would increase the threat.

A warm front is expected to lift through the area early Wednesday morning, with some indication of an earlier mentioned very weak shortwave/buckling of trough moving through aloft. This may present a trigger for late afternoon/early eve isolated to scattered convection Wed, although the focus is a bit more vague at this point and (higher terrain, perhaps sea breeze boundary). This warm frontal passage and SW flow will have widespread high temps climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with widespread heat indices in mid to upper 90s degrees as dewpoints climb into the lower 70s.

Heights continue to build on Thursday, but progress of the earlier mentioned shearing southern closed low will have to be monitored as it potentially starts lifting towards the Mid-Atlantic. Quite a bit of model spread on the evolution of this feature and its associated surface wave/low. At this time this feature appears to be far enough SW/S of the region on Thursday, for another hot and humid day. Although a backing wind flow may keep coastal areas a bit cooler than Wed. Only a conditional potential for some isolated convection off terrain and seabreeze boundaries in a likely unstable, but capped and weakly shear environment. If flow remains from the S/SW widespread temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s likely for Thursday with heat indices of 95-100 possible.

Forecast details become less certain Friday into the weekend, dependent on the evolution of the southern low as it lifts/shears up the coast, but confidence is increasing in a northern stream trough amplifying down through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and then to the East Coast during this time.

Considerable model spread exists on the southern low tracking up the coast as early as Friday or as late as Saturday Night, as well as whether it track up the coastal plain or offshore, as well as degree of intensification, and whether it acquires any tropical characteristics. NHC is monitoring the southern system for potential tropical or subtropical development this week, giving it a 30% chance over the next 5 days as it potentially emerges off the Carolina coast. Main threat with this low at this point would be a swath of heavy rainfall along its path as it taps into Gulf and subtropical Atlantic moisture, but low confidence on any details.

Better agreement that mean troughing will be sliding towards the east coast through the weekend, with a series of surface troughs moving through the area. Depending on timing of the southern wave, very warm and humid conditions are likely for the weekend, with threat of afternoon convection both days. Each successive trough Sunday into early next week, appears to bring in slightly cooler and drier airmass, but low predictability at this point.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A weak cold front slowly drops south, eventually passing through the terminals toward daybreak Monday.

VFR. Winds will be variable to light WNW winds overnight give way to late morning/early afternoon sea breezes again on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon/evening, mainly late in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Monday night through Thursday. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly from the NYC metros north/west. Friday. Rain with sub-VFR more likely. Chc E-SE gusts 20-25kt.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions expected through mid week. Potential for SCA seas Friday into the weekend with a persistent S/SW flow and strengthening wind fields with a potential coastal low.

HYDROLOGY. Conditional and localized flash flood threat on Tuesday for far SW portions of the Tri-State, if a warm front nears or works into the region and interacts with a building moist and unstable airmass.

A localized urban and poor drainage flooding threat exists with any isolated thunderstorm activity Wed and Thu, as it will be slow moving and able to tap into a very moist environment.

There is potential for more widespread downpour/thunderstorm activity and resultant urban and poor drainage flooding threat during the Friday/Saturday period, but low confidence on details at this timeframe. More details as the week progresses.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of a SE swell and high astronomical tides (full moon) will have water levels approach minor flood thresholds once again tonight, but they are expected to remain below minor flood benchmarks.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Goodman/NV NEAR TERM . Goodman SHORT TERM . Goodman LONG TERM . NV AVIATION . JC MARINE . Goodman/NV HYDROLOGY . DJ/NV TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 17 mi52 min 73°F 70°F1014 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 25 mi52 min S 4.1 G 5.1 73°F 67°F1013.5 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 26 mi40 min SSW 12 G 14 72°F 72°F1014.5 hPa72°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 38 mi52 min SW 6 G 7 77°F 73°F1013.1 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi52 min SW 6 G 8.9 79°F 70°F1013.1 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY19 mi76 minVar 5 mi73°F71°F94%1014 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi77 minSSW 410.00 miFair73°F71°F94%1014.4 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT24 mi74 minS 310.00 miFair70°F68°F93%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmCalmCalmSW3SW3W3CalmW5W6343SW656SW7
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1 day agoNE4N4N6N6N5N6N4N4N3N4NE7N5N5NE645Calm3444CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW5CalmW3W5W6W5CalmNW3NW4NW5NW5N3NE6NE9NE7NE7NE6E5NE7E6NE5NE6NE3NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Cedar Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 04:51 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:02 AM EDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:49 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:14 PM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.31.60.80.1-0.10.20.81.41.92.42.52.41.91.40.90.40.20.51.222.63.13.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 01:00 AM EDT     -1.88 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:38 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:07 AM EDT     1.37 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:54 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:10 PM EDT     -1.66 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 04:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:19 PM EDT     1.85 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-1.9-1.7-1.3-0.60.41.11.41.30.8-0.1-0.8-1.4-1.6-1.5-1.1-0.50.51.41.81.81.40.5-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.