Sunrise 5:29 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 10:10 AM   Moonset 1:02 AM

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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 354 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Rest of today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tonight - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely especially in the afternoon, with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Wed night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain likely, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain. Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.

ANZ300 354 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A warm front will pass to the northeast tonight as high pressure remains stationary just offshore. The high will weaken and move farther out into the atlantic late Tuesday into Tuesday night as a broad area of low pressure begins to approach from the mid mississippi and ohio valleys. The low will consolidate into one area of low pressure along the mid atlantic coast by Wednesday night, then slowly pass to the south on Thursday, followed by weak high pressure building into the area Thursday night into Friday. Another frontal system and wave of low pressure should impact the area over the weekend, followed by high pressure early next week.

FXUS61 KOKX 132039 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 439 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will pass to the northeast tonight as high pressure remains stationary just offshore. The high will weaken and move farther out into the Atlantic late Tuesday into Tuesday night as a broad area of low pressure begins to approach from the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The low will consolidate into one area of low pressure along the Mid Atlantic coast by Wednesday night, then slowly passes to the south on Thursday. Weak high pressure builds into the area Thursday night into Friday. Another frontal system and wave of low pressure should impact the area over the weekend, followed by high pressure early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Mid level shortwave trough riding through a weak upper ridge over the eastern states has brought a return of clouds to areas form the NYC metro area north/west, also a few sprinkles. Have 20 PoP for the possibility of these sprinkles or light showers north of NYC and across southern CT into this evening. Skies should clear later on tonight after this feature passes.

Temps were held down in the 60s today from NYC north/west due to persistent cloud cover. Lows tonight should range from the mid 50s in/around NYC, to the upper 40s/lower 50s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A sfc high just offshore and sfc ridging aloft will pass slowly east on Tue. After some morning sunshine clouds should increase in the afternoon via WAA aloft in SW flow ahead of the broad low approaching from the west, with chance of late day showers well to the west of NYC. PoP increases Tue night to likely/categorical NW of NYC Tue night and to chance across all but eastern Long Island and SE CT. Can't totally rule out an isolated tstm but have not mentioned in the fcst attm. Rainfall amts during this time frame should remain light, with no more than 2-4 tenths of an inch NW of NYC, and even this could be generous as latest NAM/GFS are drier than the NBM.

High temps on Tue, with SW low level flow and ridging aloft, should be warmer than those of Monday, with highs 70-75 away from the coast and in the 60s near most south facing shorelines.
Lows in the 50s expected for Tue night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A southern branch upper low being tugged on by another in the northern branch gets left behind in the vicinity of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday. Guidance varies a bit on its placement and with the resulting surface low that consolidates off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday night. The NAM is the most northern solution of the 12Z guidance, while most are east of the Delmarva. This difference could very well make for a big difference in how much rain the area can expect. Overall, there is clearly a southward shift in the guidance and both rain chances and rainfall amounts have been backed down some.
Ensembles are generally clustering around their operational runs, so not offering much help at this time. The best chance for rain remains during the day Wednesday, then gradually lowering Wednesday night into Thursday as the low tracks farther offshore. Greatest rainfall amounts are across the NYC metro, NE NJ, and western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, with around 0.5 to 0.75". Amounts will lower to the northeast, lowest across interior southern CT at around 0.3 to 0.4". Expect some fluctuation until we get better agreement in the low track.
While most of the forecast closely followed the NBM, did go with a weaker easterly flow based on the southward trend of the low.
There is the potential for NE gusts of 20 to 30 mph on the backside of the low on Thursday.

Conditions likely dry out Thursday night into Friday, but there is chance for low clouds/drizzle as weak warm advection develops. There is some uncertainty as to how much dry air advects into the area as high pressure ridges in from New England.

Another system with some resemblance to the midweek system will bring increasing chances of rain Friday night into Saturday, possibly lingering into Sunday with another frontal wave passing to the south off the Mid Atlantic coast. High pressure is then forecast to follow behind early next week.

Temperatures through much of the period are forecast to be at or just above normal for highs, but lows will generally be above normal by about 5 degrees due to cloudy nights during the forecast period. However, highs on Wednesday and Saturday are forecast be a bit cooler due to the forecast of rain along with easterly flow. Should the forecast continue to trend drier for Wednesday, temperatures may need to be bumped up a bit.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weak high pressure pushes offshore through tonight. Low pressure slowly approaches from the southwest Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Mainly VFR. There is a chance of showers Tuesday afternoon and early evening, especially from the NYC metro terminals on NW.

SW winds will continue shifting to the S this afternoon with speeds 10-15 kt. Any gusts 15-20 kt will be occasional and mainly located across Long Island. S winds slowly weaken this evening and may shift to the SSW. Wind speeds by early Tuesday morning should be around 5 kt. SSW-S winds increase on Tuesday, becoming 10-15 kt by late morning or early afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A gust 15-20 kt cannot be ruled out through 22Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late Tuesday afternoon: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late. S winds G15-20kt possible near the coast.

Tuesday night: MVFR or lower in showers, most likely west of the NYC metros.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in rain. Rain diminishes at night. NE winds G15-20kt.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. NE winds G20kt.

Friday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower late.

Saturday: MVFR possible. Chance of showers. SE winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Increasing S flow should peak at 20 kt in the NY bight, with seas up to 4 ft. Therefore a short fused SCA should not be needed for early this evening. Conditions should remain below SCA thresholds through Tuesday night.

A strengthening E-NE flow Wednesday into Wednesday night will likely bring SCA conditions to the ocean waters, with the potential for 25-30kt gusts and seas of 5 to 10 ft. Highest winds and seas will be on Thursday, with gradually improving conditions Thursday night into Friday as high pressure builds in from the NE.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic problems expected.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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