Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montauk, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Key Messages...

* Clear skies, light winds, and cooler temps tonight.

Zonal flow in the mid- and upper- levels continues tonight as a surface high builds to the south. Decreasing winds and clear skies will allow for a good amount of radiational cooling and decoupling of the boundary layer, leading to overnight lows in the high 30s to low 40s outside of the typical urban corridors to cool into the upper 30s and low 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Short Term

Key Messages...

* Warmer, clear skies, and light winds for a pleasant Thursday.

* Chance of showers Thursday evening north of the Mass Pike.

A mid-level ridge stretching into southern Quebec together with surface high pressure just offshore will prolong the quiet and dry weather through Thursday. The only exception is for western and central MA which may be in close enough proximity to a weak shortwave and moisture plume to our north to support widely scattered showers Thursday evening north of the Mass Pike.
Temperature-wise, we will warm a few degrees on Thursday afternoon as warm advection in the low levels pushes 925 mb temps to 12-15C which would result in highs in the upper 60s and mid 70s across the interior and high 50s to mid 60s along the immediate coasts, Cape, and Islands. Wind gusts pick up a little for Thursday night along the south coast, Cape, and Islands as a warm front approaches southern New England.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Key Messages:

* Unseasonably warm Friday

* Soaking rain Saturday, but timing remains uncertain

* Drying out Sunday with cool and blustery conditions

* Mainly dry with warming temperatures Monday through Wednesday

Unseasonably warm on Friday as flow turns SW and 850mb temps warm to +10C. Even with partly to mostly cloudy skies due to weak WAA, high temps will reach the mid to upper 70s to even low 80s near the CT river valley. Closer to the coasts, highs will struggle to jump out of the low to mid-60s with a modest southerly breeze.

A short wave trough exits the Great Lakes Saturday as a surface low out ahead of it passes over northern New England. This system will bring our next round of precipitation to the region as PWATs increase to 1.3 to 1.5 inches. The timing of the rain remains uncertain as the GFS remains faster than the Euro and Canadian.
However, the 12z run has started to trend slower, with the bulk of the precipitation falling during the daylight hours on Saturday.
There could be a rumble or two of thunder, as steep mid-level lapse rates allow for elevated instability to build to 100-300J/kg. As of now, still expecting a modest rainfall as ensemble probs from the 12z GEFS and ECWMF show moderate to high probs of 40-70% for a half inch of rain. Ensemble probs drop off significantly for greater than 1 inch, ranging between 0-10%. Thinking there will be pockets of greater than 1 inch, but they will be more localized to pockets where convection can help increase rain rates. It will be quite windy on Saturday as a southerly LLJ of 45-55 knots develops over eastern MA and RI. With cold ocean waters still in the 40s, it will be tough to mix down much of that wind. Hence, gusts should stay in the 25-35mph range. High temps range from the low to upper 60s.

Drying out Sunday as cool and dry air advects in from the north.
Winds turn gusty again around 30-40mph as the pressure gradient remains tight, and northerly winds promote good mixing. High temps will struggle to top the low 60s even with mostly sunny skies.

Upper-level ridge builds back in to start the week with mainly dry conditions through Wednesday. High temperatures quickly moderate back into the low 70s on Monday, with mid to upper 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00Z TAF Update:

Tonight: High Confidence

VFR. Northerly winds 5-10kts becoming light and variable in the early morning hours.

Thursday: High Confidence.

VFR. Winds light and variable, becoming southerly 5-10 kts in the afternoon. Expect haze and smoke to begin moving into CT during the afternoon which could cause some visibility obstruction.

Thursday Night: High Confidence.

VFR. Primarily SSWly winds 5-10kts with a few sporadic gusts up to 15kts. Smoke/haze continues to spread into the rest of SNE with visibility obstruction possible.

KBOS TAF
High confidence

Light northerly winds tonight. Sea breeze kicks in early tomorrow between 12-13z. Sea breeze kicks out in the late afternoon/evening, then winds aloft begin to increase, bringing some light wind shear Thursday evening. Smoke/haze could cause some visibility obstruction overnight Thursday into Friday morning.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Light and variable winds tonight turning southerly tomorrow.
Smoke/haze could cause some visibility obstruction as early as Thursday afternoon, possibly into Friday morning.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA.

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely, slight chance TSRA.

Saturday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Key Messages

* Generally quiet conditions over the coastal marine zones through Thursday night.

Tonight

Quiet and calm across the coastal waters tonight with winds becoming light south/southwest winds becoming northeast by tomorrow morning.
Seas generally 2 feet or less.

Tomorrow

High pressure to the south of the coastal waters will support another calm day with light northeast winds in the morning becoming steady out of the south during the afternoon from 10 to 15 knots. Seas remain 2 feet or less.

Tomorrow Night

South/southwest winds up to 10 knots with seas building to 2-3 feet.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.