Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montauk, NY
December 10, 2023 2:50 AM EST (07:50 UTC)
Sunrise 7:01AM Sunset 4:20PM Moonrise 5:32AM Moonset 3:27PM
ANZ332 Long Island Sound East Of The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 903 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.storm watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Isolated showers late this evening. Slight chance of rain late. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain developing. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain in the evening, then rain and slight chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain likely in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
.storm watch in effect from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Isolated showers late this evening. Slight chance of rain late. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain developing. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain in the evening, then rain and slight chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain likely in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 903 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure over the western atlantic will continue to gradually move eastward, while a strengthening frontal system over the mid section of the country tracks east. A strong cold frontal passage will occur late Sunday night into Monday morning, with low pressure deepening along it as it tracks into canada on Monday. Strong high pressure building to the south on Tuesday will flatten out, allowing a cold front to approach Tuesday night and pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Another strong high will then build from the west for later in the week.
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure over the western atlantic will continue to gradually move eastward, while a strengthening frontal system over the mid section of the country tracks east. A strong cold frontal passage will occur late Sunday night into Monday morning, with low pressure deepening along it as it tracks into canada on Monday. Strong high pressure building to the south on Tuesday will flatten out, allowing a cold front to approach Tuesday night and pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Another strong high will then build from the west for later in the week.
Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBOX 100336 AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1036 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
SYNOPSIS
Multi-faceted, high impact storm to impact southern New England Sunday into Monday with heavy rain, strong to damaging winds, and perhaps a touch of snow in western MA. Otherwise, turning drier Monday afternoon and trending colder into the middle of next week. Then likely moderating the end of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Just some minor tweaks to the forecast this evening. Only the last few runs of the RAP had a clue about the light radar returns moving across the southern coastal waters. Thus, used that as the basis for updating rainfall chances this evening and overnight. Not looking at a lot of precipitation, but thought there was enough of a risk to preclude keeping the forecast dry.
The other concern overnight will be low clouds and fog as higher humidity air moves over the relatively colder ground. Seeing plenty of areas of fog along the south coast of New England and portions of SE MA, but the visibility is not quite low enough to warrant a Dense Fog Advisory just yet. Will continue to monitor.
730 PM update...
Warm front bleeding northward into MVY with wind direction now 190 degs and dew pt up to 50F, along with Buzzards Bay entrance tower now reporting SW winds. Warm front will be slow to advance northward overnight. As it does so, areas of fog will develop and vsby already down to less than 2 miles at WST and GON. Fog will become more widespread overnight and could see some patchy dense fog too.
No appreciable rainfall overnight, but can't rule out some spotty mist/drizzle along and near the warm front. Despite the warm front still south most of the region, it's a balmy evening across SNE with temps and dew pts in the 40s. Hence, contributing factor to increasing areas of fog.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Fog that forms overnight will likely have some trouble burning off tomorrow morning due to a variety of reasons, but the two primary mechanisms will be the low sun angle of December and abundant cloud cover. In any case, expecting visibility to improve by 16Z, just in time for the arrival of our next system.
As with previous updates, we continue to monitor the potential for a multi-hazard storm beginning Sunday afternoon as low pressure, amplified by a negatively tilting trough, ejects off the mid- Atlantic coast before crossing eastern southern New England and eventually moving into the Gulf of Maine. Rain will begin between 16- 20Z tomorrow.
Strong southerly warm air advection ahead of an approaching cold front will allow PWATs to grow to between 1 and 1.5"; extremely moist for by December standards! This increased moisture will interact with an extremely robust 925mb LLJ, with some guidance forecasting a strength of up to 100kt early Monday, significantly enhancing precipitation potential with this system. HRRR LPMM, a typical, reasonable, benchmark of maximum precipitation potential, highlights a broad area of 5-7" of QPF across south central Connecticut, which is corroborated by global guidance (GEFS) probabilities of exceeding 2" near 100% across western MA and probabilities of exceeding 4" between 20-30% across the same area. Thus, while position of the axis of heaviest precipitation is up for debate and will wiggle a bit over the next 24-36 hours as the position of the low wobbles with each forecast cycle, we have high confidence that some localities in the CWA will see 3-4" of rain, with locally higher amounts. Thus, the flood watch that was in place overnight has been expanded to encompass all of southern New England, save for the Cape and Islands, given 6 hr FFG ranges from just 1.8" to about 3". Urban and poor drainage flooding is expected, as well as the potential for rapid brook and stream rises and flash flooding in areas that receive several inches of rain in just as many hours.
The LLJ mentioned in the above paragraph also poses a significant threat to southern New England, with our saving grace looking to be steep inversion below 975mb and cool ocean temperatures, which will preclude the forecasted 80-100kt gusts from mixing to the surface for the duration of this event. With that said, there is still significant uncertainty in the upper bound of gust potential across the Cape and Islands, as hi-res guidance looks to develop a fine line between 12-16Z Monday, which would allow for deeper mixing and stronger gusts to mix to the surface. This uncertainty is the reason behind the High Wind Watch being maintained through this forecast cycle, with forecasters hoping to gain more confidence overnight before deciding to upgrade to a warning, or to downgrade to an advisory; noting advisory level winds of 40kt are a slam dunk in the area outlined by the watch. NBM probabilities of 40kt exceeding 60% across the south coast and Plymouth county, in addition to collaboration with our neighboring WFO, have led to the issuance of a wind advisory in the aforementioned areas, with expected gusts of 40-55mph as far inland as Providence overnight Sunday. To note, LLWS will be a significant concern for the Cape and Islands, with up to 80kt of shear possible on Nantucket early Monday!
Cold front begins to sneak into western New England Monday morning and will be quite quick in its travel across the region.
Temperatures will fall some 20F, from the upper 50s to the 30s, behind the front, leading to any anafrontal precipitation transitioning to snow for a few hours Monday morning. While it is tempting to bite on some of the deterministic guidance outlining the potential for 6"+ of snow across western MA, snow will have difficulty accumulating due to warm antecedent conditions and borderline air temps in the mid 30s. Thus, relied heavily on the positive snow depth change output rather than raw 10:1 or Kuchera snow amounts, leading to the forecast of perhaps a quick 1-3" of snow across the high terrain of Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden counties and a light dusting in the high terrain of northern Worcester County. What does NOT help the snow potential is the rapid departure of this system into the Canadian maritimes, with all precip coming to an end between 15-18Z Monday, leaving just a short window of opportunity for accumulation.
As alluded to above, Monday will be a tale of two seasons within one daylight period as we start out mild and rainy in the mid 50s to near 60 and end the day with clearing skies and temperatures in the 30s and 40s!
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
330 PM update...
* Quiet weather, no big storms or qpf events * Temps at or cooler than normal much of this period, followed by milder weather late next week, possibly 50+ for a day or two
Ensembles support a northern stream dominant weather regime for southern New England this period. Thus, temps at or colder than normal much of the time. Also, moisture starved northern stream short waves combined with the lack of stream phasing, not expecting any big storms or qpf events this period. Then beginning around the middle of next week, a Rex Block develops out west, with a negative height anomaly over the desert southwest and above normal heights across Alberta and Saskatchewan. This anomalous warmth from this ridge eventually advects ESE into the Great Lakes and into New England late next week. Warm temps aloft combined with WNW flow may yield one or two days of 50+ temps!
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
No major changes with this update. Warm front edging northward from the south coast of New England with a wind shift to the S and increased dew points. This warm front lifts very slowly northward overnight. Earlier discussion below.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Through tonight...
MVFR across the CT River Valley will continue to spread east this evening as any remaining VFR transitions to MVFR except for on Nantucket. Patchy fog degrading cigs to IFR or lower likely after 06Z at many terminals. Question mark on if fog makes it into BOS, but minor vsby reductions possible at most terminals.
Winds generally light from the south.
Tomorrow...
Fog attempts to burn off but will be slow to do so given the low sun angle and expansive cloud cover. Mainly MVFR with pockets of IFR, though some guidance suggests a brief period of VFR may break out tomorrow morning across southeast MA.
Southerly flow increasing through the day up to about 30kt by sunset. Rain beginning from southwest to northeast between 16-20Z.
Tomorrow night...
Heavy rain expected across the region with IFR to LIFR across the area. Embedded thunder possible. Wind shear will be a significant issue across the Cape and Islands with up to 80kt LLWS forecast over Nantucket. Southerly winds continue to increase to 30-45kt, with gusts to 65kt possible, most likely again over the Cape and Islands. Cold frontal passage begins to work into NW MA by daybreak, shifting southerly winds to NW.
Brief transition to snow likely across the high terrain but will not impact major terminals, perhaps ORE.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR to MVFR this evening. Fog possible at the terminal but confidence is low in vsby reduction potential, though IFR cannot be ruled. Light southerly flow tonight gives way to increasing gusts tomorrow; up to 30kt by sunset. Rain begins after 20Z. LLWS around 35kt not out of the question after 20Z Sunday.
KBDL Terminal... MVFR to IFR tonight as fog develops across the interior. Light southerly flow tonight gives way to increasing gusts tomorrow to near 20kt. Rain to begin around 16Z tomorrow and persist through the end of the period.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Tuesday through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Generally tranquil conditions tonight with south/southeast winds 5-15kt waves 2-3ft.
Conditions deteriorate quickly Sunday into Monday as low pressure crosses southern New England, allowing southerly winds to build to 40kt by Sunday night and 60kt, across the outer waters, by Monday morning. Wave heights look to approach 20ft.
Storm watches are in place for all waters and are expected to be converted to either Gale Warnings or Storm Warnings over the next 24 hours. Conditions will not be favorable to mariners, and those expected to be on the waters should keep a keen eye on the forecast.
An abrupt and significant shift in winds is expected mid to late day Monday as a cold front crosses the waters, allowing winds to diminish to near 20 kt overnight. Seas gradually diminish but will still be near 15 ft overnight.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
HYDROLOGY
330 PM update...
The risk for rapid brook and stream rises as well as poor drainage, urban, and flash flooding is elevated from Sunday night into Monday as some areas could see 2-4"+ of rain. Given these elevated concerns, WPC has placed much of southern New England in a "Slight" risk for excessive rainfall.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
330 PM update...
* Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect
12z models have trended faster with timing of strongest wind and max surge to about 2-3 hours before high tide. Yesterday guidance was closer to high tide, therefore the threat for moderate/significant flooding is lower today than yesterday.
However, given the time sensitivity of only a few hours making the difference between minor and moderate flooding, we will continue with the Coastal Flood Watch for Narragansett Bay, as it highlights the potential still exist. Elsewhere, the flood threat is more minor, as the southerly flow up the bay increases the surge do to funneling/channeling.
As of now there is moderate confidence (greater than 50%) for minor flooding for the entire south coast from the CT/RI border, eastward to the south coast of Cape Cod. This includes all the towns along Narragansett and Buzzards Bays. As for moderate to significant flooding, only a 20-30% probability of occurrence and that is confined to Narragansett Bay. Today's surge forecast was based on the ETSS and PETSS 90th percentile. This yields a storm surge of 1.5 ft to 2.5 ft, down from up to 3 ft from yesterday's guidance. Again, very time sensitive given high tide and low tide are only 6 hours apart. Hence, a wind forecast error of only 3 hours will have a big impact on storm surge and inundation. Stay tuned!
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for MAZ002>021-026.
Wind Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for MAZ019>021.
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for MAZ022>024.
RI...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for RIZ001>007.
Wind Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for RIZ006- 007.
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for RIZ008.
Coastal Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for ANZ230-236.
Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1036 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023
SYNOPSIS
Multi-faceted, high impact storm to impact southern New England Sunday into Monday with heavy rain, strong to damaging winds, and perhaps a touch of snow in western MA. Otherwise, turning drier Monday afternoon and trending colder into the middle of next week. Then likely moderating the end of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Just some minor tweaks to the forecast this evening. Only the last few runs of the RAP had a clue about the light radar returns moving across the southern coastal waters. Thus, used that as the basis for updating rainfall chances this evening and overnight. Not looking at a lot of precipitation, but thought there was enough of a risk to preclude keeping the forecast dry.
The other concern overnight will be low clouds and fog as higher humidity air moves over the relatively colder ground. Seeing plenty of areas of fog along the south coast of New England and portions of SE MA, but the visibility is not quite low enough to warrant a Dense Fog Advisory just yet. Will continue to monitor.
730 PM update...
Warm front bleeding northward into MVY with wind direction now 190 degs and dew pt up to 50F, along with Buzzards Bay entrance tower now reporting SW winds. Warm front will be slow to advance northward overnight. As it does so, areas of fog will develop and vsby already down to less than 2 miles at WST and GON. Fog will become more widespread overnight and could see some patchy dense fog too.
No appreciable rainfall overnight, but can't rule out some spotty mist/drizzle along and near the warm front. Despite the warm front still south most of the region, it's a balmy evening across SNE with temps and dew pts in the 40s. Hence, contributing factor to increasing areas of fog.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Fog that forms overnight will likely have some trouble burning off tomorrow morning due to a variety of reasons, but the two primary mechanisms will be the low sun angle of December and abundant cloud cover. In any case, expecting visibility to improve by 16Z, just in time for the arrival of our next system.
As with previous updates, we continue to monitor the potential for a multi-hazard storm beginning Sunday afternoon as low pressure, amplified by a negatively tilting trough, ejects off the mid- Atlantic coast before crossing eastern southern New England and eventually moving into the Gulf of Maine. Rain will begin between 16- 20Z tomorrow.
Strong southerly warm air advection ahead of an approaching cold front will allow PWATs to grow to between 1 and 1.5"; extremely moist for by December standards! This increased moisture will interact with an extremely robust 925mb LLJ, with some guidance forecasting a strength of up to 100kt early Monday, significantly enhancing precipitation potential with this system. HRRR LPMM, a typical, reasonable, benchmark of maximum precipitation potential, highlights a broad area of 5-7" of QPF across south central Connecticut, which is corroborated by global guidance (GEFS) probabilities of exceeding 2" near 100% across western MA and probabilities of exceeding 4" between 20-30% across the same area. Thus, while position of the axis of heaviest precipitation is up for debate and will wiggle a bit over the next 24-36 hours as the position of the low wobbles with each forecast cycle, we have high confidence that some localities in the CWA will see 3-4" of rain, with locally higher amounts. Thus, the flood watch that was in place overnight has been expanded to encompass all of southern New England, save for the Cape and Islands, given 6 hr FFG ranges from just 1.8" to about 3". Urban and poor drainage flooding is expected, as well as the potential for rapid brook and stream rises and flash flooding in areas that receive several inches of rain in just as many hours.
The LLJ mentioned in the above paragraph also poses a significant threat to southern New England, with our saving grace looking to be steep inversion below 975mb and cool ocean temperatures, which will preclude the forecasted 80-100kt gusts from mixing to the surface for the duration of this event. With that said, there is still significant uncertainty in the upper bound of gust potential across the Cape and Islands, as hi-res guidance looks to develop a fine line between 12-16Z Monday, which would allow for deeper mixing and stronger gusts to mix to the surface. This uncertainty is the reason behind the High Wind Watch being maintained through this forecast cycle, with forecasters hoping to gain more confidence overnight before deciding to upgrade to a warning, or to downgrade to an advisory; noting advisory level winds of 40kt are a slam dunk in the area outlined by the watch. NBM probabilities of 40kt exceeding 60% across the south coast and Plymouth county, in addition to collaboration with our neighboring WFO, have led to the issuance of a wind advisory in the aforementioned areas, with expected gusts of 40-55mph as far inland as Providence overnight Sunday. To note, LLWS will be a significant concern for the Cape and Islands, with up to 80kt of shear possible on Nantucket early Monday!
Cold front begins to sneak into western New England Monday morning and will be quite quick in its travel across the region.
Temperatures will fall some 20F, from the upper 50s to the 30s, behind the front, leading to any anafrontal precipitation transitioning to snow for a few hours Monday morning. While it is tempting to bite on some of the deterministic guidance outlining the potential for 6"+ of snow across western MA, snow will have difficulty accumulating due to warm antecedent conditions and borderline air temps in the mid 30s. Thus, relied heavily on the positive snow depth change output rather than raw 10:1 or Kuchera snow amounts, leading to the forecast of perhaps a quick 1-3" of snow across the high terrain of Franklin, Hampshire, and Hampden counties and a light dusting in the high terrain of northern Worcester County. What does NOT help the snow potential is the rapid departure of this system into the Canadian maritimes, with all precip coming to an end between 15-18Z Monday, leaving just a short window of opportunity for accumulation.
As alluded to above, Monday will be a tale of two seasons within one daylight period as we start out mild and rainy in the mid 50s to near 60 and end the day with clearing skies and temperatures in the 30s and 40s!
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
330 PM update...
* Quiet weather, no big storms or qpf events * Temps at or cooler than normal much of this period, followed by milder weather late next week, possibly 50+ for a day or two
Ensembles support a northern stream dominant weather regime for southern New England this period. Thus, temps at or colder than normal much of the time. Also, moisture starved northern stream short waves combined with the lack of stream phasing, not expecting any big storms or qpf events this period. Then beginning around the middle of next week, a Rex Block develops out west, with a negative height anomaly over the desert southwest and above normal heights across Alberta and Saskatchewan. This anomalous warmth from this ridge eventually advects ESE into the Great Lakes and into New England late next week. Warm temps aloft combined with WNW flow may yield one or two days of 50+ temps!
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
No major changes with this update. Warm front edging northward from the south coast of New England with a wind shift to the S and increased dew points. This warm front lifts very slowly northward overnight. Earlier discussion below.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Through tonight...
MVFR across the CT River Valley will continue to spread east this evening as any remaining VFR transitions to MVFR except for on Nantucket. Patchy fog degrading cigs to IFR or lower likely after 06Z at many terminals. Question mark on if fog makes it into BOS, but minor vsby reductions possible at most terminals.
Winds generally light from the south.
Tomorrow...
Fog attempts to burn off but will be slow to do so given the low sun angle and expansive cloud cover. Mainly MVFR with pockets of IFR, though some guidance suggests a brief period of VFR may break out tomorrow morning across southeast MA.
Southerly flow increasing through the day up to about 30kt by sunset. Rain beginning from southwest to northeast between 16-20Z.
Tomorrow night...
Heavy rain expected across the region with IFR to LIFR across the area. Embedded thunder possible. Wind shear will be a significant issue across the Cape and Islands with up to 80kt LLWS forecast over Nantucket. Southerly winds continue to increase to 30-45kt, with gusts to 65kt possible, most likely again over the Cape and Islands. Cold frontal passage begins to work into NW MA by daybreak, shifting southerly winds to NW.
Brief transition to snow likely across the high terrain but will not impact major terminals, perhaps ORE.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR to MVFR this evening. Fog possible at the terminal but confidence is low in vsby reduction potential, though IFR cannot be ruled. Light southerly flow tonight gives way to increasing gusts tomorrow; up to 30kt by sunset. Rain begins after 20Z. LLWS around 35kt not out of the question after 20Z Sunday.
KBDL Terminal... MVFR to IFR tonight as fog develops across the interior. Light southerly flow tonight gives way to increasing gusts tomorrow to near 20kt. Rain to begin around 16Z tomorrow and persist through the end of the period.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Tuesday through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Generally tranquil conditions tonight with south/southeast winds 5-15kt waves 2-3ft.
Conditions deteriorate quickly Sunday into Monday as low pressure crosses southern New England, allowing southerly winds to build to 40kt by Sunday night and 60kt, across the outer waters, by Monday morning. Wave heights look to approach 20ft.
Storm watches are in place for all waters and are expected to be converted to either Gale Warnings or Storm Warnings over the next 24 hours. Conditions will not be favorable to mariners, and those expected to be on the waters should keep a keen eye on the forecast.
An abrupt and significant shift in winds is expected mid to late day Monday as a cold front crosses the waters, allowing winds to diminish to near 20 kt overnight. Seas gradually diminish but will still be near 15 ft overnight.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
HYDROLOGY
330 PM update...
The risk for rapid brook and stream rises as well as poor drainage, urban, and flash flooding is elevated from Sunday night into Monday as some areas could see 2-4"+ of rain. Given these elevated concerns, WPC has placed much of southern New England in a "Slight" risk for excessive rainfall.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
330 PM update...
* Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect
12z models have trended faster with timing of strongest wind and max surge to about 2-3 hours before high tide. Yesterday guidance was closer to high tide, therefore the threat for moderate/significant flooding is lower today than yesterday.
However, given the time sensitivity of only a few hours making the difference between minor and moderate flooding, we will continue with the Coastal Flood Watch for Narragansett Bay, as it highlights the potential still exist. Elsewhere, the flood threat is more minor, as the southerly flow up the bay increases the surge do to funneling/channeling.
As of now there is moderate confidence (greater than 50%) for minor flooding for the entire south coast from the CT/RI border, eastward to the south coast of Cape Cod. This includes all the towns along Narragansett and Buzzards Bays. As for moderate to significant flooding, only a 20-30% probability of occurrence and that is confined to Narragansett Bay. Today's surge forecast was based on the ETSS and PETSS 90th percentile. This yields a storm surge of 1.5 ft to 2.5 ft, down from up to 3 ft from yesterday's guidance. Again, very time sensitive given high tide and low tide are only 6 hours apart. Hence, a wind forecast error of only 3 hours will have a big impact on storm surge and inundation. Stay tuned!
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for MAZ002>021-026.
Wind Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for MAZ019>021.
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for MAZ022>024.
RI...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for RIZ001>007.
Wind Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 9 AM EST Monday for RIZ006- 007.
High Wind Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for RIZ008.
Coastal Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for RIZ002-004>007.
MARINE...Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for ANZ230-236.
Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 0 mi | 50 min | 51°F | 48°F | 30.06 | |||
| LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather | 19 mi | 20 min | SW 2.9G | 50°F | ||||
| NLHC3 | 23 mi | 50 min | 49°F | 45°F | 30.09 | |||
| 44097 - Block Island, RI (154) | 45 mi | 54 min | 52°F | 3 ft | ||||
| NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI | 46 mi | 50 min | S 5.1G | 50°F | 49°F | 30.11 | ||
| QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI | 47 mi | 50 min | S 7G | 48°F | 45°F | 30.12 | ||
| PDVR1 | 49 mi | 50 min | 0G | 47°F | 30.12 | 46°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMTP MONTAUK,NY | 3 sm | 56 min | calm | -- | 46°F | 45°F | 93% | 30.12 | ||
| KGON GROTONNEW LONDON,CT | 20 sm | 9 min | WSW 03 | 1/2 sm | Overcast | Mist | 50°F | 50°F | 100% | 30.10 |
| KBID BLOCK ISLAND STATE,RI | 22 sm | 54 min | SSW 06 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 48°F | 48°F | 100% | 30.12 | |
| KWST WESTERLY STATE,RI | 22 sm | 10 min | calm | 1/2 sm | Overcast | Fog | 48°F | 46°F | 93% | 30.10 |
Wind History from MTP
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Montauk
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Sat -- 03:24 AM EST Moonrise
Sat -- 06:05 AM EST 2.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:00 AM EST Sunrise
Sat -- 12:37 PM EST 0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:59 PM EST Moonset
Sat -- 04:19 PM EST Sunset
Sat -- 06:21 PM EST 1.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:24 AM EST Moonrise
Sat -- 06:05 AM EST 2.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:00 AM EST Sunrise
Sat -- 12:37 PM EST 0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:59 PM EST Moonset
Sat -- 04:19 PM EST Sunset
Sat -- 06:21 PM EST 1.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 1.1 |
| 3 am |
| 1.5 |
| 4 am |
| 1.9 |
| 5 am |
| 2.2 |
| 6 am |
| 2.4 |
| 7 am |
| 2.3 |
| 8 am |
| 1.9 |
| 9 am |
| 1.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
The Race
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:11 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:25 AM EST Moonrise
Sat -- 05:06 AM EST 2.42 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:01 AM EST Sunrise
Sat -- 08:25 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:34 AM EST -2.92 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:59 PM EST Moonset
Sat -- 02:58 PM EST 0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:19 PM EST Sunset
Sat -- 05:41 PM EST 2.27 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:58 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:52 PM EST -2.48 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:11 AM EST 0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:25 AM EST Moonrise
Sat -- 05:06 AM EST 2.42 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:01 AM EST Sunrise
Sat -- 08:25 AM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:34 AM EST -2.92 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:59 PM EST Moonset
Sat -- 02:58 PM EST 0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:19 PM EST Sunset
Sat -- 05:41 PM EST 2.27 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:58 PM EST -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:52 PM EST -2.48 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -2.1 |
| 1 am |
| -1.3 |
| 2 am |
| -0.2 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 2 |
| 5 am |
| 2.4 |
| 6 am |
| 2.2 |
| 7 am |
| 1.5 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| -0.8 |
| 10 am |
| -2 |
| 11 am |
| -2.8 |
| 12 pm |
| -2.9 |
| 1 pm |
| -2.2 |
| 2 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 0 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| -0 |
| 10 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| -2.2 |
Upton, NY,
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