Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montauk, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:26PM Monday July 6, 2020 7:09 PM EDT (23:09 UTC) Moonrise 9:54PMMoonset 6:34AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 314 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Tonight..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of tstms early this evening. Chance of showers.
Tue..SE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SE winds around 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 314 Pm Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A back door cold front moves across from the east tonight. This front will lift back into the waters on Tuesday, and pass north by Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure will then briefly build in through Thursday. Low pressure will then approach from the south on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montauk CDP, NY
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location: 41.05, -71.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 062020 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 420 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. A frontal boundary will remain south of New England tonight. Other than an isolated shower or thunderstorm across CT into western-central MA and RI, dry weather prevails tonight. The front remains south of the region Tuesday providing mainly dry weather and temperatures a few degrees cooler than normal. The front finally returns northward as warm front Tuesday night along with scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Very warm, very humid conditions move in for the late week. Showers/thunderstorms will be possible each day with some heavy downpours.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/.

415 PM Update .

Frontal boundary remains south of New England with E-NE flow across the region. This maritime flow has resulted in a temp of 69 in Boston/Logan airport despite SKC. However farther inland this maritime airmass modifies rapidly with distance from the shore with 80 degs at ORH, 84 at WST to 89 at HFD. Still somewhat humid with dew pts in the low to mid 60s. This will lead to a warm evening ahead with low clouds continuing to thin over Cape Cod and the Islands, while CU field over CT/RI and into western-central MA continue decorate the sky.

By 22z some of the Hi Res guidance including HRRR continues to have this CU field develop into scattered showers over CT into western- central MA. Modest MLCAPE of 500-1000 j/kg over this region at the moment but forcing is lacking. However seabreeze tracking north thru CT may be sufficient to provide the necessary low level convergence. Nonetheless given the weak mid level lapse rates, weak forcing and light winds aloft, any updrafts should struggle to reach the -10C isotherm so thinking lightning is a very low risk and could be limited to isolated coverage in CT to western-central MA. If convection fires it would collapse with sunset given weak mid level lapse rates and weak shear.

Otherwise a seasonably mild night with lows 60-65 and with dew pts in the low 60s can't rule out some patchy fog. E-NE winds will become SE as the night progresses. This onshore flow combined with boundary layer cooling should promote low clouds to fill back in across the region overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/.

415 PM update .

Tuesday .

Frontal boundary should remain south-southwest of the region thru Tue. This will promote a cooler/stable SE flow into the region which is evident by all models having little to no CAPE across the region tomorrow. Low clouds and fog in the morning should burn off to at least partial sunshine by mid to late morning. However this partial sunshine may fade to increasing mid/high clouds in the afternoon especially across CT as the front begins to return northward as a warm front. Highs Tue mainly in the mid to upper 70s (slightly below normal) and slightly less humid than today with dew pts in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday night .

Frontal boundary to the southwest continues lifting northeast as warm front across the region. Expecting scattered showers to develop. Instability aloft and jet dynamics are fairly weak so not expecting much if any thunderstorms, although best chance would be western MA.

Warmer than tonight and more humid with dew pts rising into the mid and upper 60s, yielding patchy fog and possibly some drizzle as well. SE wind becoming south.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/.

415 PM update .

Mid level flow pattern is expected to remain nearly zonal near the USA/Canada border with a series of low amplitude shortwaves traversing it. A more significant shortwave arriving late this week into this weekend may develop a deep enough mid level trough along the Eastern Seaboard to have implications for our forecast. This mid level trough may linger into early next week. The details through Thursday are moderate confidence, and low confidence from Friday onward.

Temperature-wise, this pattern will mean near to above normal temperatures continue through this portion of the forecast. Persistent S to SW winds will also mean increasing humidity into the oppressive/tropical category for most. Expecting dew points around 70 degrees F most of this time.

This heat and humidity poses a risk for diurnal showers and thunderstorms most days. A more significant rainfall may occur sometime Friday into this weekend. Latest guidance showed a strong signal for a tropical plume of moisture moving towards southern New England. Precipitable water values of 2-3 standard deviations above normal are likely. This means a threat of downpours and possible flooding. Sunday and Monday are difficult, with a nearly stationary front nearby. It will all depend on where this boundary sets up relative to southern New England.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

1830z update .

Thru 00z . moderate to high confidence. MVFR cigs over Cape Cod and Islands continue to slowly erode and lift and should be marginal MVFR/VFR by 21z. Isolated MVFR possible in CT as isolated -SHRA/-TSRA develops after 20z. Otherwise VFR with light NE winds except up to 20 kt Cape Cod and Islands.

Tonight . moderate confidence. VFR to start the evening other than isolated MVFR in -SHRA/-TSRA in CT. This activity will weaken into decaying showers and enter western-central MA and possibly into RI later this evening. The trend should be toward MVFR as the night progresses. Light E-SE winds.

Tuesday . moderate confidence. Mix of MVFR/VFR but mainly dry weather. Isolated shower possible western MA into CT during the afternoon. Light SE winds.

Tuesday night . moderate confidence. VFR/MVFR trending toward MVFR/IFR as scattered showers overspread the region from west to east. Isolated thunder possible. SE winds continue.

KBOS Terminal . high confidence in TAF thru this evening. VFR and onshore flow.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate confidence in TAF. Possible VCTS/TSRA after 20z. Dry after 00z-02z.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/ .

Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Friday Night through Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

MARINE.

415 PM update .

Tonight . frontal boundary remains south of New England yielding E-NE winds across the MA/RI waters, becoming E-SE overnight. Low clouds and patchy fog invade the waters again mainly after midnight. Other than patchy drizzle, thunderstorms should remain over the NY waters.

Tuesday . Frontal boundary should remain south of New England much of the day with light SE winds across the MA/RI waters. Low clouds and fog will burn off to partial sunshine with improving vsbys. Mainly dry weather prevails other than some patchy drizzle in the morning.

Tuesday night . Frontal boundary begins to lift north as a warm front with scattered showers overspreading the MA/RI waters along with patchy fog and drizzle. Not expecting much if any thunder. SE winds becoming south.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/ .

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/Nocera NEAR TERM . Nocera SHORT TERM . Nocera LONG TERM . Belk AVIATION . Belk/Nocera MARINE . Belk/Nocera


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 0 mi51 min 70°F 65°F1019.4 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi51 min SE 8 G 15 72°F 71°F1018.8 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 25 mi39 min ESE 16 G 19 70°F 72°F1019.6 hPa67°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi43 min 68°F2 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 46 mi51 min E 7 G 14 73°F 64°F1019.2 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 47 mi51 min NE 11 G 12 75°F 73°F1019.3 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY3 mi75 minESE 6 mi72°F64°F79%1019.4 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT20 mi73 minESE 1310.00 miA Few Clouds72°F64°F76%1018.5 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI22 mi76 minESE 1110.00 miFair76°F63°F64%1019 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI22 mi73 minE 1110.00 miFair70°F64°F82%1019.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4556SW5SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW3NW4NW4N53E7E8E75E10
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmSW3SW3W3CalmW5W6343SW656SW7
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2 days agoNE6NE3NE5NE4N4N6N6N5N6N4N4N3N4NE7N5N5NE645Calm3444

Tide / Current Tables for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Montauk
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Mon -- 04:57 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:28 AM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:54 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:52 PM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.91.30.70.1-0.10.10.71.31.92.22.21.91.51.20.80.50.30.51.11.72.32.82.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:40 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:47 AM EDT     -3.71 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:00 AM EDT     2.97 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:18 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:09 PM EDT     -3.04 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:17 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:10 PM EDT     2.98 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.1-0.6-2.2-3.4-3.7-3.1-1.9-0.31.42.632.71.80.5-1.1-2.4-3-2.7-1.8-0.41.12.432.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.