Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montauk, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
10 AM Update...

Area of light rain continues to push east as 750mb jet max and weak mid level convergence moves over the region. After this initial area of rain pushes through, guidance shows a break this afternoon before filling back in early this evening. The heaviest rain should stay north of the MA border with periods of light to moderate showers north of the MA pike. South of the MA pike, showers will be more scattered in nature with better forcing from the shortwave to the north.

7 AM Update...

Current radar shows rain extending across western MA this morning with some scattered light showers in north central CT.
This batch of showers is a bit more extensive than forecast, so made some minor edits to reflect current trends. This batch of showers should move eastward over the course of the morning.

Previous Discussion:

Low pres moves east moves from the Ohio valley today with a warm front setting up south of New Eng today. Area of rain to the north of the boundary is moving east from western and central NY and will impact portions of SNE today. Deep moisture plume will be focused north of the MA Pike today where periods of rain expected, beginning around daybreak in NW MA and spreading east through the morning and afternoon. The rain is in response to a modest low level jet intersecting the 850 mb warm front resulting in decent frontogenesis and forcing for ascent. Overall, looking like a chilly wet day in northern MA with rainfall 0.10 to 0.50 inches, highest amounts in NW MA. However, there is a good moisture gradient to the south with much less moisture as you head toward the south coast. As a result expecting just scattered light showers south of the MA Pike and likely remaining mostly dry closer to the south coast. In fact, some sunshine is expected here as drying in the 850-700 mb layer moves up from the south in the afternoon. There will be a sharp temp gradient from NW MA to the south coast as the warm front lifts to near the south coast later today. Cooler low level temps and rainfall will result in highs mid-upper 40s interior northern MA, then warming through the 50s as you head south from the MA Pike. Temps should reach into the 60s near the south coast and Cape/Islands by late in the day as warm front approaches and winds veer to the SE.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
Tonight...

Amplifying mid level trough swings through the Gt Lakes tonight.
Best low level forcing will move to the north tonight as the 850 mb warm front lifts into northern New Eng. Steadier rainfall will gradually shift to the north with rainfall becoming more scattered in SNE as deep moisture becomes fragmented. Scattered showers will eventually impact the south coast tonight as low pres tracks along the warm frontal boundary and moves into SNE. There is also some elevated instability that develops near the south coast at the nose of a low level jet to the south so can't rule out an isolated t- storm for the south coast and Cape/Islands after midnight. Lows will be mostly in the 40s, but temps holding steady in the 50s SE New Eng coast which will be in the warm sector.

Monday...

Scattered showers should linger into Mon morning as the cold front moves through. Still some timing differences but the front should be moving off the coast during the afternoon followed by blustery NW winds developing. The mid level trough and potent shortwave will be moving through in the afternoon, so can't rule out a few afternoon showers but the trend will be for drying conditions with partly sunny skies developing. Highs will range through the 50s, but likely reaching mid-upper 60s along the south coast and Cape/Islands where axis of warmer 925 mb temps lingers before moving offshore.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Monday Night:

By Monday night, the cold front will be fully through the region with cold air advecting in from west to east. By Tuesday morning, 925mb temperatures may drop as low as -2C, so decent CAA possible during the overnight period. Temperatures drop into mid to upper 30s with some nearing the freezing mark in the higher elevation spots.
It may end up a bit cooler if winds trend weaker overnight.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

A deep trough and upper low remain in place across the northeast through midweek. Below normal 850mb temperatures accompany this pattern resulting in a fairly cool couple of days. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday remain in the 50s, with upper 40s in spots. Cool nights can be expected as well with lows dipping into the 30s for the interior with lows around the freezing mark for the higher elevations. Some of the coastal areas drop into the upper 30s while others drop into the low 40s. Flow aloft stays consistently out of the NW during this period with breezy NW surface winds each day.
Conditions will be mainly dry supported by subsident flow, but can't rule out a few off shore showers.

Thursday - Friday:

The main axis of the trough shifts to the east of the region on Thursday as an mid-level ridge approaches from the west. This will be a transition day before the ridge advects in higher highs and warmer temperatures. Highs trend slightly warmer Thursday with highs slowly rebounding into the mid/upper 50s. The warming trend continues into Friday with highs rising back into the 60s.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Today...Moderate confidence.

Mainly VFR cigs south of the MA Pike, with lowering cigs to MVFR to the north in the afternoon. Periods of rain focused north of the MA Pike, with mainly dry conditions closer to the south coast. E to N winds 5-10 kt, becoming SE-S 10-15 kt late in the day Cape/Islands.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Conditions lowering to MVFR then IFR across much of SNE, except VFR over ACK. Scattered showers, most numerous in northern MA.
Low risk for a t-storm south coast and Cape/Islands after midnight. N winds 5-10 kt, except becoming SW immediate south coast and Cape/Islands. Increasing SW winds with gusts to 25 kt developing at ACK.

Monday...Moderate confidence.

IFR-MVFR with scattered showers in the morning improving to VFR in the toward the afternoon. Wind becoming NW 10-20 kt.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends, lower confidence in timing and specific details.

VFR cigs should last into the afternoon, eventually lowering to MVFR after 21z and should become IFR tonight. A batch of showers possible this morning followed by scattered showers developing in the afternoon. Winds will become NE to 10 kt this afternoon.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in trends, lower confidence in timing and specific details.

VFR cigs today with a few showers possible. Cigs lowering to MVFR tonight and may get down to IFR. N winds 5-10 kt.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Columbus Day: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Monday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...Easterly winds below SCA will become S over the southern waters this afternoon as the warm front lifts northward. Gusts to 20 kt expected.

Tonight...Variable winds with NE gusts to 25 kt over NE MA waters as a low level jet develops from the Gulf of Maine. Meanwhile SW gusts to 25 kt expected over the southern waters as low pres tracks near the south coast. Seas build to 6-8 ft over the southern waters.
SCA issued for south coastal waters and it may be needed for NE MA waters as well for the NE gusts. Scattered showers and an isolated t-storm possible.

Monday...Variable winds shift to NW during the afternoon behind a cold front with gusts to 20-25 kt developing.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Columbus Day: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237-254>256.