Tuesday, July23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montauk, NY

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Sunrise 5:33AMSunset 8:16PM Tuesday July 23, 2019 9:06 AM EDT (13:06 UTC) Moonrise 11:56PMMoonset 11:49AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 622 Am Edt Tue Jul 23 2019
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Isolated tstms this morning. Showers until late afternoon, then chance of showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until late afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 622 Am Edt Tue Jul 23 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Waves of low pressure will ride along a frontal boundary stalled near the area through the day today and into tonight. High pressure then builds in from the west on Wednesday, allowing the boundary to move east of the area. High pressure remains over the area through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montauk CDP, NY
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location: 41.05, -71.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 231058
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
658 am edt Tue jul 23 2019

Synopsis
Another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms impact the
region this morning into early this afternoon, focused across
rhode island and southeast massachusetts. Lingering showers are
expected tonight into early Wednesday across the southeast new
england coast. Mostly dry, seasonable weather late week into
the weekend, with a return of more substantial heat and humidity
early next week. Potential wash out of the mugginess late next
week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
* highlights ...

- flash flood watch into early afternoon across ri SE ma
* discussion (7 am update, no major changes) ...

the main issue will be another batch of heavy showers and embedded
thunderstorms expected to impact portions of ri and SE ma this
morning. This activity may linger into early afternoon across the
cape nantucket. We did go ahead and issue a flash flood watch
into early afternoon for this region, which we will discuss in
greater detail below.

A surface boundary was draped near the south coast very early this
morning. At the same time, another wave of low pressure was lifting
northeast along the boundary to our southwest. This should keep the
boundary in the same general vicinity for much of the morning, as
the wave rides along it. Pwats of 2+ inches along with unusually
strong forcing for this time of year, will bring the potential for
localized pockets of torrential rainfall across ri SE ma this morning
into early afternoon. Model QPF is all over the place and may be
too far north given convective feedback issues. So while there is
uncertainty, enough parameters are in place to warrant a flash
flood watch across ri and SE ma. The main threat will be this
morning, but may linger into the early afternoon across the cape
islands. Again, this is a result of high pwats, a boundary in the
vicinity with unusually strong forcing for this time of year. Across
the rest of the region, plenty of showers expected this morning but
given less forcing do not expect any flooding issues.

Severe weather is not expected for the vast majority of the region
this morning early afternoon given limited instability. However,
we can not rule out a low risk across the CAPE islands depending
on where the warm front and triple point setup.

By mid afternoon, the steady showers will have exited the cape
islands. However, clouds skies a few spot showers will remain
possible. Highs will only reach the upper 60s to lower 70s with
a bit of a northeast breeze across the southeast new england coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
Tonight...

the cold front will be well south of our region tonight. There
will be another wave of low pressure, but this will track
further southeast then this morning s. So the bulk of the
showers will be confined to the southeast new england coast,
particularly the CAPE islands. Elsewhere, think dry weather is
on tap for tonight except for a spot shower or two. Low
temperatures will range from the upper 50s to the middle 60s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
* highlights ...

- coastal rains lingering Wednesday
- overall dry and seasonable late week into the weekend
- build up heat and humidity early next week
- potential late week washout of the mugginess
* overview ...

brief relief, but summer heat will return. The four-corners monsoon
ridge persisting as the N pacific pattern oscillates emphasized by
positive wpo epo pna trends signaling an onshore fast N pacific
jet squeezed between ak low N of a NE pacific high. Diagnosing h85
temperatures, return of warmer than average conditions aloft mixing
down to the surface by the end of july. Conveyor belt motions from
the mild pacific and hot desert SW conus, trends coinciding with cpc
6-10 8-14 day outlooks. For now, lingering h5 trof deamplifying
through the week. Seasonable, comfortable conditions initially, a
gradual return of heat and humidity while monitoring for upstream
weak wave impulses through the mid-latitude near-flat flow into the
end of july. Some isolated to scattered shower chances but the over-
all pattern looking dry with the absence of more potent mid to upper
level synoptics (like that presently). Break down the details below.

* details ...

Wednesday ...

coastal rains lingering. Mid-upper trof and accompanying synoptics
slow to lift up against the N atlantic ridge bermuda high. Gradual
deamplification as warmer air higher heights prevail out ahead of
additional mid-latitude energy through an evolving flattening flow.

Chance to likely pops further SE closer to the weak wave low along
the now offshore cold front beneath h3 jet dynamics aloft. Cooler
airmass aloft while drier air entrenching at the surface, lean with
seasonable temperatures around the low 80s, however 2m temperatures
expected to be somewhat dependent on cloud cover. Warmest conditions
look to occur over W areas of the ct river valley. Light N W winds
despite the offshore cold front, possibility of sea-breezes along
the coast.

Thursday into the weekend ...

dry, seasonable conditions, however can't rule out an isolated spot
shower. Despite drier conditions with low to mid level low thetae,
favorable lapse rates along with very weak mid level impulses, with
anabatic flow along the high terrain, can't rule out a spot shower.

The better chance Friday and Saturday, berkshires preferred, however
light winds, can't rule out activity along midday sea-breezes. Low
confidence as there are signals suggesting prevailing subsidence.

Heat and humidity gradually rebounding throughout as we see return s
flow late.

Early next week ...

heat and humidity continuing. Subsidence ridge prevailing between
upstream synoptics up against tropical energy creeping n. May not be
till the end of the week that we'll wash out the mugginess with a
sweeping cold front. More potent synoptics can only be emphasized if
energy is downsheared out of canada ahead of re-emerging synoptics
over the gulf of ak. Low confidence forecast.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ... Moderate confidence.

12z update ...

today ...

widespread MVFR-ifr with -ra, embedded ra +ra with possible tsra,
the greater risk over se-coastal terminals. With ra +ra a greater
likelihood of ifr perhaps lifr. Activity through mid afternoon.

Accompanying burst of N NE winds sustained around 10 to 15 kts
with gusts up to 25 kts. Spot showers towards evening.

Tonight...

perhaps some partial clearing w, however another batch of -ra is
anticipated around midnight into the early morning hours of
Wednesday. MVFR-ifr lingering especially along and SE of bdl-lwm.

Brief W flow with -ra turning N late.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... High confidence.

Tuesday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Breezy. Widespread shra,
patchy br.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Slight
chance shra.

Wednesday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday night through Saturday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ... High confidence.

Today...

northeast wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots expected behind the wave
of low pressure this morning. This will also result in 3 to 6
foot seas building across many open waters and SCA headlines are
in effect for many of our waters. The other issue will be heavy
showers and embedded thunderstorms through early afternoon. A
few of the storms may be strong across our southern waters and a
waterspout can not be ruled out.

Tonight...

ne wind gusts will diminish as pressure gradient weakens. However,
we will need to keep small craft headlines in effect for our
southern waters as a result of lingering seas.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... High confidence.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Widespread
rain showers, scattered thunderstorms, patchy fog. Areas of
visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, patchy fog.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday night through Saturday: winds less than 25 kt.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Flash flood watch until 2 pm edt this afternoon for maz017>024.

Ri... Flash flood watch until 2 pm edt this afternoon for riz001>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for anz231-
232-250-251.

Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 2 am edt
Wednesday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Wednesday for anz254.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Wednesday for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Frank sipprell
near term... Frank sipprell
short term... Frank
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Frank sipprell
marine... Frank sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 0 mi54 min 71°F 69°F1007 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi41 min NNE 13 G 15 66°F 1007.5 hPa64°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi48 min NNE 5.1 G 8 67°F 71°F1007 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 25 mi36 min S 12 G 14 75°F 1006.8 hPa73°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi36 min 72°F5 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 46 mi54 min NNE 9.9 G 16 68°F 67°F1008 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 47 mi54 min NNE 16 G 19 67°F 77°F1008.2 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY3 mi72 minVar 4 mi72°F69°F91%1007.3 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT20 mi70 minN 138.00 miLight Rain69°F64°F84%1007.2 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI22 mi73 minN 710.00 miOvercast71°F69°F94%1007.7 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE33Calm3E6E5E6E7E6E6NE7
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NE43CalmCalmW3W3Calm4CalmSW343
1 day agoW8W7W9W7W7W5W8554SW4Calm3NW5N3SW3W4NW6NW3CalmCalmCalmNW3NW3
2 days agoW5W8W5W5W5W4SW4SW5SW7SW8
G16
SW6SW93SW5SW4SW5W4SW3CalmCalmCalmS4Calm5

Tide / Current Tables for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Montauk
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Tue -- 02:05 AM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:37 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:48 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:16 PM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.822.121.71.310.80.60.60.81.21.61.92.22.32.11.81.51.310.80.91.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
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Tue -- 01:08 AM EDT     2.10 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:31 AM EDT     -2.46 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:33 PM EDT     2.27 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:01 PM EDT     -2.41 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:13 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.11.81.20.3-0.7-1.7-2.4-2.4-1.7-0.70.41.42.22.21.60.8-0.1-1.2-2.1-2.4-2.1-1.2-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.