Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montauk, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:11PM Monday October 14, 2019 6:32 AM EDT (10:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:58PMMoonset 7:27AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 350 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Today..E winds around 5 kt, becoming nw early this afternoon, then becoming sw late. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain early this morning.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 350 Am Edt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak low pressure will pass just southeast of long island this morning and eventually into the gulf of maine this afternoon into tonight. A cold front will move across the waters tonight with high pressure building in thereafter through Tuesday. This will give way to an approaching low pressure system for midweek. The central low of this system moves northeast of the region by Thursday and into the canadian maritimes by Friday. Meanwhile, high pressure will gradually build into the waters from the south and west for the end of this week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montauk CDP, NY
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location: 41.05, -71.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 140708
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
308 am edt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will pass near CAPE cod and the islands this
afternoon and will bring showers to the south coast, CAPE cod, and
the islands. High pressure from the plains follows with dry weather
and seasonable temperatures later today and Tuesday. Storm system
Wednesday with rain and wind threats. Blustery, cool Thursday
with chance showers. Chilly, breezy conditions Friday. Frost
freeze conditions possible Saturday morning. Warming up into the
weekend, remaining dry. The next chance of wet weather early to
midweek the following week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Dense fog has developed across parts of NE ma. Dot webcams and goes-
16 imagery indicate it is patchy and this is expected to be trend
through daybreak. Per coordination with gyx dense fog is more
widespread in S nh.

Area of showers approaching CAPE cod and islands but needs to
overcome some dry air at mid levels which will happen before
daybreak. Continuing to lean on high-res models which keep most of
showers on CAPE cod and islands but also graze south coast. Best
moisture convergence stays offshore where coupled jet dynamics are
focused (250 mb and 850 mb). Weak low passes near CAPE islands early
this afternoon before heading farther ne, bringing an end to showers
and drying by mid to late afternoon in ri E ma in W NW flow behind
it. Highs late in day should reach mid to upper 60s, but low 60s on
cape islands where clearing occurs latest.

Farther inland, just some mid and high cloudiness today before skies
clear from W to E this afternoon. Highs should be closer to 70.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
High pressure builds into region from plains tonight and becomes
centered S of new england tue. Cross sections show drying through
column and subsidence so expect clear skies tonight and plenty of
sunshine tue.

Gradient weakens enough Tue afternoon to allow for coastal sea
breezes.

Lows tonight fall back into upper 30s and 40s, except near 50 on
immediate coast. Highs Tue reach 50s to lower 60s.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
* highlights...

- storm system Wednesday bringing rain and wind.

- cool, dry, blustery Thursday. Chance showers N w.

- cool with high pressure Friday. Frost freeze Sat morning.

- warm-up, dry weekend.

- potential early to midweek storm the following week.

* overview...

near-seasonable, active weather trend. Renewed NE atlantic cyclone
energy ahead of which mild atlantic air funnels across N europe. A
series of rossby wave breaks across W russia, enough to kick E the
present siberian h5 cyclone energy. Rippling downstream, the pattern
transitioning across the N pacific, a wpo epo teleconnection role
reversal towards positive yielding a mild N pacific jet into the w
conus. Bering straight alaskan h5 low promoting subtle h5 ridging
into the W canadian maritimes, a hudson bay E CONUS trof deepens
through which energy rotates round remnant cyclone energy presently
associated with the n-plains storm system Wednesday. Rossby wave-
train evolution into the latter october with pattern amplification,
a deep W CONUS h5 trof upstream from anomalous E CONUS ridging. A
potential late-october warm-up. Details below.

* details...

around Wednesday...

storm. Continued signals of potent n-stream vortlobe pv-streamer
undergoing a negative-tilt phasing with s-stream remnant eastern n-
pacific presently S of cabo san lucas. Rapid surface cyclogenesis
bombogenesis round SE new england 40n-70w benchmark during energy
transfer through a brief double-barrel low setup. Certainly strong
dynamics and associated lift ascent. Soaking rains. Strong winds.

Another october gale early season nor'easter.

However uncertainty on specifics. Continued run-to-run discrepancies
and model-to-model ensemble member spread. Synoptic wobbles with
individual features more notably the closing mid-upper level low in
respect to anticipated aforementioned cyclogenesis. Further N W over
the interior, the surface low tucks closer to the coast, whereas the
h7-3 low closing over S new england as vortlobe energy bowls through
the mid-level trof yields the surface low closer the 40n-70w bench-
mark. Much different outcomes for our area between the 2 scenarios.

It's going to be several model runs till we can nail down with any
certainty threats and impacts for any one particular area. Potent
nevertheless with 3-4 standard deviation anomaly.

Till then, monitoring several key features. 1.) moderate-heavy rain.

Focus on banding deformation as secondary cyclogenesis emerges at
or near our coastline. Trowaling sub-tropical moisture with dynamic
forcing throughout the column, expecting rain-banding with embedded
thunderstorms (some impressive +60 microbar second omega values per
14.0z gfs). 2.) strong winds. Surface pressure falls 3-4 mb second
with parent pressure fall rise couplet. Isallobaric-gradient driven
wind. At first a conditionally unstable profile and precip-drag that
could bring faster momentum aloft down to the surface preceding the
surface low center. Then a dry slot wraps into the storm. Forecast
model rh cloud fields showing a scorpion tail feature typically
associated with a sting-jet as evaporative cooling proceeds with
isallobarically descending air but looking further downstream (e me
into SE canadian provinces).

Altogether, this storm looks progressive. Not concerned much about
flooding but more about winds and their impact along the shoreline
and across the waters (wind wave). Focus on the Wednesday pm
commute as well. Continued low confidence forecast with preference
to global models. Keep the mention of gales in the hazardous weather
outlook.

Immediately behind the storm, cold air advection, steep lapse rates,
likely blustery right behind associated fronts as temperatures drop
quickly into Thursday.

Thursday...

blustery, cool, showers expected N W of the high terrain, drying and
downsloping into the ct river valley. Typical autumn winter pattern
is back. Chance pops. Clearing out, drying out overnight.

Friday...

crux of cooler air aloft. Will be concerned with frost freeze head-
lines into Saturday morning as winds become light, conditions become
clear. Another breezy day. Winds subsiding along the E SE coast as
high pressure builds from the W overnight. Interior 30s for lows.

Frosty pumpkins.

Saturday onward...

continued signals of a warming trend out ahead of a suggested early
to midweek cyclone. Anomalous h85 temperatures aloft, the potential
for highs into the 70s Sunday through Tuesday so long as SW winds
prevail.

Aviation 07z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

06z TAF update: high confidence.

Areas of lifr CIGS vsbys across NE ma due to fog, which will
lift around 12z.

Otherwise CIGS lower to MVFR early this morning from CAPE cod
and islands into much of ri with ifr CIGS around daybreak and
lasting most of the day. Showers should be confined to immediate
south coast, CAPE cod, and islands through midday. CIGS lower
to MVFR into bos but remainVFR farther N and w. Lower ceilings
improve 21z- 00z as light S SE winds shift to W nw.

Vfr tonight and Tuesday. Gradient weakens enough to allow for
coastal sea breezes Tuesday afternoon.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night:VFR.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Ra.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy
with gusts up to 35 kt. Ra, chance shra.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong winds
with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance shra.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy
with gusts up to 30 kt.

Friday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Dropped small craft advisories since seas have subsided below 5 ft
per buoy observations.

Weak low pressure tracks up coast today and passes near CAPE islands
early this afternoon before heading farther ne. Light S SE winds
shift to W NW behind low later in day, then give way to near shore
sea breezes Tue afternoon. Seas build slightly to 4 ft on outer se
waters today and tonight, then subside tue.

Showers mainly affect S coastal waters and CAPE cod bay through mid
afternoon.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Wednesday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain, chance of rain showers.

Thursday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Friday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Sipprell jwd
near term... Jwd
short term... Jwd
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Sipprell jwd
marine... Sipprell jwd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 0 mi62 min 56°F 62°F1015.2 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi32 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 56°F 1014.3 hPa (-0.8)54°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi62 min N 6 G 7 52°F 62°F1015.1 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi32 min 61°F3 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 46 mi62 min SSE 5.1 G 6 58°F 57°F1015.6 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 47 mi62 min NNW 1 G 1.9 55°F 60°F1015.9 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY3 mi38 minN 0 mi56°F54°F93%1015.5 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT20 mi36 minN 010.00 miOvercast54°F51°F90%1015 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI22 mi39 minNNE 38.00 miOvercast55°F53°F93%1015.6 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI22 mi36 minE 410.00 miUnknown Precip0°F0°F%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW5NW8NW6NW8NW8NW7W6NW6W5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN12
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N8N6N8N5N6N6N6N5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Montauk
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Mon -- 03:53 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:02 AM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:30 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:21 PM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.10.80.50.30.61.11.62.12.52.62.521.510.60.20.20.61.11.61.92.22.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:15 AM EDT     -3.03 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:22 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 09:13 AM EDT     2.86 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:28 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:34 PM EDT     -3.27 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:49 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:36 PM EDT     2.79 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.4-1.1-2.3-3-2.8-1.9-0.50.92.22.82.61.80.7-0.8-2.2-3.1-3.2-2.4-1.20.31.72.62.72.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.