Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montauk, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:54PM Thursday January 23, 2020 2:39 AM EST (07:39 UTC) Moonrise 7:18AMMoonset 4:42PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1031 Pm Est Wed Jan 22 2020
Rest of tonight..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming w. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..E winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Rain, mainly in the evening.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Mon night..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1031 Pm Est Wed Jan 22 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains over the waters through the end of the week. Low pressure will then impact the waters over the weekend before high pressure returns early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montauk CDP, NY
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location: 41.05, -71.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 230536 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1236 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will be in control through the end of the week bringing dry weather and moderating temperatures. A storm is expected to impact the region Saturday into Sunday with rain near the coast and snow over the high elevation interior. Some light snow showers are possible late on Sunday into early Monday as the storm exits, then mainly dry and seasonable conditions into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. 915 PM update .

Just a few high clouds moving into the region this evening, otherwise mostly clear skies. Low risk for some very shallow ground fog in the colder locations. Lows mostly in the teens with some single numbers in the CT valley, but 20s NE coastal MA, outer Cape and areas adjacent to Narragansett Bay.

Previous discussion .

Tranquil weather tonight with 1030 mb high pressure cresting over the region. Big temp differences between the urban/City areas vs suburbs overnight given light winds, dry airmass and mainly clear conditions. Given this derived min temps overnight from MOS and bias corrected MOS.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Thursday .

Deep layer ridge over the region Thu with plenty of mid level anticyclonic flow to support dry weather and mostly sunny conditions (other than some cirrus from time to time). Airmass continues to modify so temps not as cold as today. Despite subsidence inversion limiting blyr depth/mixing, modest WSW wind combined with airmass continuing to modify will support highs of 45-50. Given this derived highs tomorrow from the warmer MOS and bias corrected MOS data sets. These temps will be about 10-15 degs above normal.

Thursday night .

Another quiet/tranquil night with dry weather prevailing. Not as chilly as tonight as airmass continues to modify. Still good radiational cooling conditions with large temp differences between urban areas vs suburbs. Weak frontal boundary approaches from the north toward Friday morning. Only sensible weather will be a wind shift to the NE and cool shallow air beginning to advect southward.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Highlights .

* Dry weather Friday with above normal temperatures.

* Coastal storm this weekend initially bringing a cold rain for much of southern New England. Best opportunity for snowfall is across the interior where things begin as a wintry mix before transitioning to rain/snow.

* Scattered snow showers across the region late on Sunday into early Monday.

* Slightly cooler temperatures after the weekend.

Details .

Friday into Saturday AM .

Ridge axis initially in place over New England, while a cutoff low is situated over the Mid Mississippi River Valley. The ridge will slowly build into northern New England and Quebec by early Saturday. The cutoff upper low will slowly lift northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. A weak shortwave will lift through New England on Friday. At the surface a weak backdoor front will shift winds to the north/northeast and usher more in the way of cloud cover and cooler readings in comparison to Thursday. Temperatures range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s.

Cloud cover will continue to increase as the cutoff system moves toward the region late on Friday into Saturday. Expect light southerly/southeasterly winds overnight advecting 0 to +5 degree Celsius 850 hPa air into the region. This will continue the trend of warmer overnight temperatures (in comparison to the past couple of days). Readings range from the mid 20s across the Berkshires to the mid 30s along the coast.

Saturday into Sunday AM .

The cutoff low continues lifting northeasterly into the Great Lakes. The surface low associated with the cutoff will remain over the central Great Lakes, but a secondary low will develop lee of the Appalachians. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to trend warmer with this system and slower with the onset of precipitation. Have slowed down precipitation chances, and this is likely due to the drier air in place ahead of the incoming system.

The secondary surface low track has been trending with a more westerly track, which advects +5 to +8 degree Celsius 850 hPa air into the region. However, some locations across the interior will see colder air locked in the lower levels. The current thinking is that interior areas will see a wintry mix become a mix of rain/snow, while much of the region sees a cold rain. Best opportunity for accumulating snowfall is across the higher elevations at this point in time.

Looks like there will be a good slug of precipitation between roughly 18Z Saturday until roughly 12Z Sunday with the heaviest precipitation Saturday evening. This quick slug of precipitation is followed by the dry slot moving in. Still a good amount of spread in the ensemble guidance across the region with the QPF, so confidence is low to moderate at this point in time. This impacts the snowfall amounts across the higher elevations. Folks will want to stay tuned as if higher QPF amounts are expected some locations could see an impactful snowfall. QPF values vary between 0.75 to 1.5 inches across the region value the EPS/GEFS. Expect strong winds especially over the ocean as the low deepens over the region. Gale force winds are possible late on Saturday into Sunday and headlines may be needed.

Sunday AM through Monday AM .

Model solutions diverge on how quickly the upper level low lifts from the eastern Great Lakes/southern New England into northern New England. The latest ECMWF/GFS are in a similar camp while the GEM is a bit slower. The thermal profile is similar with colder air advecting in aloft (roughly 0 to -5 degree Celsius 850 hPa air). Expect this to bring scattered rain/snow showers gradually becoming all snow showers. Precipitation will be relatively light during this timeframe, and expect little to no snowfall accumulation. Due to the differences have kept a blend amongst guidance.

Monday through Tuesday .

Drier air moving in as the cutoff low exits, but models are spread out on the specific details at this point in time. Have a blend of guidance at this point in time due to uncertainty. Temperatures do appear to be trending downward early next week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday/ . High confidence.

Through tonight . VFR. SW wind 10 kt or less today becoming light N after midnight.

Friday . VFR, but areas of MVFR cigs developing across northern MA in the afternoon. NE wind 10 kt or less.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance RA, chance SN.

Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. SN, chance RA.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHSN, slight chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHSN.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy.

MARINE. Short Term /through Friday/ . High confidence.

Light SW to WSW winds and tranquil seas through the period as high pres over the waters.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of snow showers. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Nocera NEAR TERM . KJC/Nocera SHORT TERM . Nocera LONG TERM . BL AVIATION . KJC/BL MARINE . Nocera/BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 0 mi51 min 29°F 37°F1029.7 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi44 min N 1.9 G 2.9 28°F 1026.2 hPa24°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi51 min N 4.1 G 5.1 25°F 42°F1029.5 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi39 min 45°F2 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 46 mi51 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 32°F 35°F1029.2 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 47 mi57 min SSW 1 G 1.9 28°F 37°F1029.5 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY3 mi45 minno data mi28°F25°F88%1029.6 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT20 mi1.7 hrsN 010.00 miFair19°F18°F96%1029.3 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI22 mi46 minN 08.00 miFair22°F16°F78%1029.7 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI22 mi43 minW 410.00 miFair28°F25°F88%1029.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N4--3CalmNW4NW5NW6NW45W5W65W53W4W5S3CalmCalmCalmCalm----
1 day ago------N8----N6N8N5N6N7N5N4W5N5N6N8N7N6NW3NW5N3--N5
2 days agoNW17
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Tide / Current Tables for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Montauk
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:39 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:39 AM EST     2.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:30 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:42 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:53 PM EST     1.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.10.10.40.91.52.12.52.62.321.50.90.3-0.1-0.10.20.71.31.71.91.71.41.1

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:55 AM EST     -2.84 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:04 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     2.86 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:16 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST     -3.45 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:42 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:46 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:41 PM EST     2.74 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:51 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.5-2.8-2.4-1.5-0.11.42.52.92.61.80.4-1.2-2.6-3.4-3.3-2.5-1.20.41.82.62.72.31.2-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.