Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montauk, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:20PM Saturday December 7, 2019 3:47 AM EST (08:47 UTC) Moonrise 3:03PMMoonset 3:04AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 957 Pm Est Fri Dec 6 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 am est Saturday...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Periods of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Occasional showers.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds around 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ300 957 Pm Est Fri Dec 6 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front passes through the area this evening. High pressure will follow for Saturday and then build offshore on Sunday. A slow moving frontal system will affect the area through mid week, followed by high pressure late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montauk CDP, NY
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location: 41.05, -71.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 070821 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 321 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. Clearing skies with colder, drier air moving across the region overnight with high pressure building in from the west. Many areas will have sub- freezing high temperatures on Saturday, followed by a frigid Saturday night. The high moves offshore Sunday, starting a return flow of milder and moist air for the first half of the week. This will bring off-and-on rain for Monday and Tuesday. A cold front moves through Tuesday night, and there might be some back-end snow on Wednesday although confidence is very low at this point. We dry out by late Wednesday and return to colder than normal temperatures for early December on Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. 140 AM update .

Skies were mostly clear across southern New England except for some clouds over outer Cape Cod and Nantucket and some low cloudiness banked along the higher terrain in western and central MA. Low pressure was centered off of Cape Cod with high pressure building eastward from the eastern Great Lakes region. The gradient between the two was still causing some gusty winds to 20-25 kt across the area. Temperatures were dropping off now, with 19 at Orange and 21 at Lawrence at 1 AM. But they were still in the lower 30s across CT, RI, and southeast MA. Overnight lows should reach the teens to lower 20s, with mid 20s to lower 30s Cape Cod and the Islands.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. Saturday colder and drier air pours into the region as high pressure builds in, though cyclonic flow lingers aloft. Subsidence under this high will keep things dry and skies mostly clear. Diurnal cumulus should develop given a cyclonic flow set up with cold air advection and daytime heating. Much of the area would see sub-freezing highs, with the interior higher elevations only reaching the upper 20s. Low to mid 30s near the coast. Albedo effect from snow cover would also negate daytime heating.

On Saturday night, a combination of light winds and mostly clear skies should allow temperatures to drop even more quickly than the previous night. A few locations in the interior higher elevations could even see single digit lows. Elsewhere, widespread teens are expected and 20s on the coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/.

Big Picture .

Broad upper trough digs over the Plains and Great Lakes early in the week while upper ridge builds over the Western Atlantic. This creates a southwest flow aloft across the Eastern USA and brings milder air into Southern New England. The upper trough moves east midweek, crossing New England Thursday, and eventually flattens into a zonal flow for the end of the week.

Normal 500-mb heights in this area in mid December range from 545 to 555 Dm. Forecast heights for Sunday night are in the 560s, diminishing to 555 to 562 Dm by Tuesday. So the deep layer is expected to be mild during the early week with no low level features to hold any surface cold air over our area. As the upper trough swings east these values lower to between 535 and 540 Dm, although the ECMWF and GGEM suggest values around 530 Dm. So the trend will be to colder than normal Wednesday-Thursday, then trend toward normal Friday.

Mass fields and thermal fields in the models are similar through Monday but then show some model-to-model differences midweek. This means moderate to high confidence through the early week, with diminishing confidence midweek.

Daily Concerns .

Sunday night .

Surface high pressure offshore with a south-southwest flow over Southern New England. Surface winds coming off the ocean into Srn RI/SE MA are around 30 kt/35 mph while winds 3000-5000 feet abv surface show a 50 kt/55 mph southwest jet over the interior. If winds from the base of this higher jet get mixed, it may also bring gusts to 30 kt/35 mph farther inland.

Model soundings show a saturated layer developing below 3000 feet, but dry air higher up in the nucleation layer through 6 AM. This shows some potential for spits and drizzle but otherwise a dry night.

Expect lowest temperature in the early night, with temperatures rising overnight. Based on dew points, the expected evening temperatures should be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. All temperatures are above freezing by midnight, so any precip that does form overnight should be rain.

Monday-Tuesday .

Mild south-southwest flow will continue to bring warmer air and increased moisture. Saturation climbs through the -10C to -15C layer around sunrise Monday, so expect rain/showers to develop around that time and spread over all areas of Southern New England. PW values will climb to between 1 inch and 1.25 inches Monday, then hover around 1 inch Tuesday. RH fields in cross-sections show a deep column of moisture over us for Monday and Tuesday. Current guidance favors a break in the rain Tuesday morning, then another burst late in the day and Tuesday night . but this timing may shift in future model runs. Currently, rain totals expected in the 1-2 inch range, possibly higher in spots.

Low level jet segments move up the coast Monday and Tuesday. One jet on Monday brings 60-70 kt winds at 2000 feet, which would support 35 kt wind gusts at the surface along the coast. A second jet Tuesday shows 40-45 kt winds at 2000 feet and above. This shows the potential for strong gusty south-southwest winds each day.

The upper trough pushes a cold front through our area late Tuesday and early Tuesday night. Winds will shift out of the west Tuesday night. At the same time, a strong upper jet will move over New England with Srn New England in the right entrance region, where lift will be promoted. This may generate a few showers Tuesday night even after the front moves through, especially over RI and SE Mass.

Wednesday-Thursday-Friday .

Upper trough and associated cold pool move across New England on Wednesday. Cold pool instability may generate some clouds and scattered rain/snow showers during Wednesday, with best potential in Western and Central MA and areas north of the MA border.

High pressure then builds in with dry weather Thursday and Friday. Temperatures remain cold Thursday, but then turn milder as the high center moves offshore and a light south flow develops.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Sunday/ . High confidence.

0640Z update .

Tonight . VFR except local MVFR over outer Cape Cod, Nantucket, and banked up against higher terrain of western and central MA. W-NW winds gusting to 20-25 kt at times, with up to 30 kt on Nantucket overnight, diminishing somewhat toward daybreak.

Saturday . VFR. Light NW winds.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA likely, patchy BR.

Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. SHRA likely.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA likely.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, chance SHSN.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHSN.

MARINE. Short Term /through Sunday/ . High confidence.

140 AM update .

Overnight . Gale Warnings have been discontinued over the southernmost outer waters and converted to Small Craft Advisories. NW winds gusting to 20-30 kt, slowly diminishing somewhat toward daybreak. Seas 3 to 5 ft except 6 to 9 ft on the southern outer waters.

Saturday . Clear skies and light winds. Seas 3 to 5 ft.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/ .

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain showers.

Tuesday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Rain showers likely.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ231>235-237-250-251. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ230- 236. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ254>256.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/Chai NEAR TERM . GAF SHORT TERM . Frank/Chai LONG TERM . WTB AVIATION . WTB/GAF MARINE . WTB/Chai/GAF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 0 mi47 min 37°F 46°F1021.8 hPa (+2.9)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi32 min NW 12 G 14 33°F 1017.7 hPa22°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi47 min NNW 5.1 G 9.9 32°F 48°F1021.4 hPa (+3.0)
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi47 min 52°F7 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 46 mi47 min NNW 9.9 G 17 34°F 38°F1020.5 hPa (+2.9)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 47 mi47 min NW 7 G 9.9 1021.1 hPa (+3.1)

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY3 mi53 minno data mi36°F24°F62%1021.5 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT20 mi51 minNW 12 G 1810.00 miFair32°F21°F64%1021.3 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI22 mi54 minNW 610.00 miFair34°F19°F54%1021.2 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI22 mi51 minNNW 14 G 2210.00 miFair33°F21°F64%1021.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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2 days ago------W4--W5W7W7--W6W8W7------W6W7--------W7W6W5

Tide / Current Tables for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Montauk
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:04 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:25 AM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:51 AM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:41 PM EST     1.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:46 PM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.81.21.51.92.22.21.91.61.30.90.50.40.60.81.11.41.71.71.51.310.70.5

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:05 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:23 AM EST     2.24 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:47 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:48 AM EST     -2.65 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:02 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:12 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:55 PM EST     2.09 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 08:12 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:06 PM EST     -2.45 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-0.60.61.62.22.21.70.9-0.3-1.5-2.4-2.6-2.2-1.4-0.311.82.11.81.20.2-1-2-2.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.