Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Northwest Harbor, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Hot but drier conditions expected on Thursday behind weak frontal passage. Periods of smoky conditions likely to persist through at least Thursday night.

2) Increased shower and thunderstorm chances expected at times this weekend, with continuing uncertainty on exact timing.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
The heat advisory was cancelled. That said, it will still be hot but drier on Thu, with high temps in the lower/mid 90s over most of the area and max heat index values less than 95, as drier air with dewpoints in the 50s moves in.

Smoke from Canadian wildfires will be the focus for the short term, along with hot but drier conditions. Satellite imagery showed a well-defined plume of smoke extending across the northern Great Lakes, across southern Ontario and through central/southern NY and southern New England. This smoke is focused along a weak cold front which will continue to slowly push southward tonight. Latest hi-res guidance showed this smoke will continue to thicken across the Tri State region into this evening. The plume of densest smoke should shift to the south overnight as the front sets up over the Mid Atlantic, so there could be some improvement. Note that both NY and CT both have Air Quality Alerts from their respective state agencies until midnight tonight, while NJ runs theirs all the way until midnight Thu night.

Although we may see a bit of a break from the worst of the smoke late tonight into early Thursday, another concentrated plume is progged to spread back over the region later Thursday and Thursday night. Expect we'll once again see widespread reduced visibility, perhaps even lower than what we're seeing so far this afternoon. How long this second plume hangs around is still unclear, as we'll remain under NW flow for at least another 24 hours thereafter. There are some indications that the smoke may once again shift to our south by Friday though, so have kept mention out of the forecast for now. Trends will need to be monitored going forward.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Conditions will become more unsettled for the weekend into early next week as a couple of fronts associated with an upper trough swinging across Ontario and Quebec. There's still plenty of model differences in potential solutions, particularly the timing of frontal passages and precipitation. However, moisture looks to increase on southwest flow, with PW potentially exceeding 2 inches. There are also indications of deep warm cloud depths of 12+ kft, allowing for efficient rainfall processes. Note that the Day 4 ERO from WPC shows a broad Marginal Risk area for much of southern New England westward through the southern Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley.
Nothing's set in stone at this point since we're still a few days out, but it will bear watching as the weekend draws closer.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A cold front slides just to the south overnight, before returning north and remaining nearby on Thursday.

Wildfire smoke emanating from Canada will continue to lower vsbys at times. This smoke is expected to remain around through the majority of the TAF period, potentially lowering vsby as low as IFR at times at a few terminals, otherwise much of the time vsbys will range from 3 to 6 miles. If IFR were to occur, the most likely timing for that would be towards Thursday afternoon and evening. The most likely window of VFR will be overnight into early Thursday morning.
Vsbys will be variable in FU. Slantwise vsbys may be reduced as well.

N to NW flow backs towards the west Thursday morning. A gusty W/SW flow is expected by Thursday afternoon, with the winds becoming NW for the city and western terminals towards and just before 00z Friday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Vsby may drop to around IFR at times through the TAF period due to FU. Most likely timing for this would be Thursday afternoon and evening. Most likely window of VFR will be overnight into early Thursday morning. Very low confidence with regard to cat changes due to FU.

Thus, amendments likely for visibilities due to uncertainty with timing and extent of wildfire smoke through Thursday evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday night: Sub VFR possible early in smoke. VFR prevails towards early Friday AM.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm possible.

Monday: VFR.

MARINE
SCA cond possible on all ocean waters late day Sat, with gusts up to 25 kt. These conditions should continue into Sat night E of Fire Island Inlet while seas also build to 5 ft. These hazardous seas should linger into Sunday.

Rip Currents:

A moderate rip current risk has been forecast for Thu and Fri, as swells and winds continue to weaken relative to those of Wed and its attendant high risk, and with both days featuring some onshore flow, with SW flow 10-15 kt on Thu and S around 10 kt on Fri.

Outlook: A high rip current risk appears likely for for late day Sat as S flow increases to 15-20 kt, with seas building to 4-5 ft and water levels ebbing toward a late afternoon low tide.
The high risk could continue into Sunday and Monday as seas remain elevated.

CLIMATE
Record High Minimum Temperatures for Wed July 15: KEWR: 82/1995 KBDR: 76/2013 KNYC: 84/1995 KLGA: 83/1995 KJFK: 79/1995 KISP: 77/1995

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Air Quality Alert until noon EDT Thursday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for NJZ002- 004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.