Wednesday, January22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Northwest Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:53PM Wednesday January 22, 2020 2:26 AM EST (07:26 UTC) Moonrise 6:23AMMoonset 3:49PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1006 Pm Est Tue Jan 21 2020
Tonight..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming nw around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Sat night..E winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain and snow likely in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain and snow in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 1006 Pm Est Tue Jan 21 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains over the waters through Thursday, then retreats to the north on Friday. Low pressure will likely impact the waters this weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northwest Harbor, NY
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location: 41.05, -72.22     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 220531 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1231 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will dominate across the northeast and id Atlantic regions through Thursday, then retreat to the north on Friday. Low pressure will impact the region this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Just a few slight adjustments based on latest observations, mainly with regard to temps and dew points. Also a slight adjustment with regard to high level clouds, which completely move out of the area a few hours later than previously advertised. Otherwise the forecast is on track as these slight adjustments will not have any sensible impacts on temperatures, etc.

Surface high pressure will remain across the area overnight. An upper level trough along the eastern seaboard was weakening and moving into the western Atlantic, as heights slowly rise across the forecast region. High level moisture with this trough and high clouds across the region will be moving out over the next few hours as the trough shifts offshore. Overnight there will be good radiational cooling conditions once again with the outlying areas falling into the teens and some single digits in the normally colder locations.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. Heights continue to rise through Wednesday as a ridge builds into the east coast. The ridge will then remain through Wednesday night. High level moisture will move back into the area Wednesday night as the ridge weakens somewhat and moistures spills over the ridge. Meanwhile surface high pressure remains across the area. Weak warm advection sets up late tonight and continues through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temperatures will be modifying Wednesday and Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure will be overhead on Thursday with dry weather, sunshine mixed with some cirrus, and high temperatures generally in the mid 40s. The dry weather continues on Friday with high pressure in control. It's shaping up to be similar to Thursday regarding sky conditions and temperatures.

A closed 500mb low moves through the Ohio Valley Friday night and eventually tracks over us late Saturday night. Associated surface low shifts NE from the Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning and passes through or nearby late Saturday night. Global models are in decent agreement with the track and timing of the storm, but differ with the thermal profile. PCPN chances begin late Friday night with PCPN becoming likely for all areas by the end of Saturday morning. Chances then lower Saturday night into Sunday morning with chances still remaining into Sunday afternoon with a cyclonic flow aloft. PCPN type will be mainly rain for coastal areas with a wintry mix inland. Based on an average of model thermal profiles, it appears that even the coldest spots would see a complete changeover to rain at some point given forecast freezing level heights. This of course is subject to change as we're still 4 days away from the event and the energy aloft driving the storm is just arriving into better RAOB sampling tonight into tomorrow.

High pressure builds in behind the storm with dry weather for Monday and Tuesday. Highs both days about 5 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. High pressure builds and remains in control into Wednesday and through Wednesday night.

VFR. Winds continue to diminish and decrease further to less than 5 kt overnight, becoming calm at many outlying terminals. Winds will remain light into Wednesday morning, and then will be west and southwest into Wednesday afternoon at around 5 kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 0Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Wednesday night-Friday night. VFR. Saturday-Saturday night. MVFR/IFR in developing rain at the coast, mixed precipitation across the interior. E winds 10-15G15-25 kt diminish overnight. Sunday. MVFR/IFR possible in lingering showers. Rain/snow mix possible in any showers across the interior.

MARINE. A weak pressure gradient remains across the forecast waters through Wednesday night as high pressure dominates. Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels.

Tranquil conditions on the waters continues Thursday and Thursday night with a high pressure ridge over the region. Winds and seas increase on Friday and Friday night in advance of a storm system that will approach from the SW. Seas on the ocean could build to 5 ft by the end of the day Friday, but more likely Friday night. SCA conds then likely on Saturday for all waters as the low passes through or nearby. Winds on the back side of this storm so far do not appear to be strong, but 25 kt gusts will still be possible Sunday morning on the ocean. Ocean seas will take some time to subside, so 5ft or greater seas on the ocean through the day on Sunday.

HYDROLOGY. Dry weather is expected through Friday.

A widespread precipitation event is likely this weekend. Precipitation amounts remain uncertain at this time therefore it is still too early to determine what impacts may occur.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JC/19 NEAR TERM . JE/19 SHORT TERM . 19 LONG TERM . JC AVIATION . JE MARINE . JC/19 HYDROLOGY . JC/19 EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 14 mi56 min 26°F 37°F1030.2 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi31 min NNW 5.1 G 6 23°F 1025.9 hPa8°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi56 min 19°F 42°F1030.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 40 mi56 min 24°F 37°F1030 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY16 mi32 minN 5 mi27°F6°F41%1030.1 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT21 mi90 minN 010.00 miFair18°F7°F62%1030 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------N8----N6N8N5N6N7N5N4W5N5N6N8N7N6NW3NW5N3--N5
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Tide / Current Tables for Threemile Harbor entrance, Gardiners Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Threemile Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:05 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:42 AM EST     2.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:59 PM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:48 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:16 PM EST     1.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.300.20.71.31.92.42.72.82.52.11.40.70-0.2-00.40.91.31.71.91.91.61.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:04 AM EST     -2.78 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:13 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:14 AM EST     2.83 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:27 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:34 PM EST     -3.41 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:47 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:00 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:56 PM EST     2.68 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:04 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.8-2.5-1.6-0.31.22.32.82.720.7-0.9-2.4-3.3-3.3-2.7-1.5-01.52.42.72.41.50.1-1.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.