Thursday, July2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Northwest Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday July 2, 2020 4:13 AM EDT (08:13 UTC) Moonrise 6:05PMMoonset 3:04AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 346 Am Edt Thu Jul 2 2020
Today..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 346 Am Edt Thu Jul 2 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. An upper level low along the new england coast this morning will continue to gradually pull away from the area today. A cold front will then pass through on Friday, followed by building canadian maritime high pressure for the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northwest Harbor, NY
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location: 41.05, -72.22     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 020543 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 143 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. An upper level low will slowly exit to the east overnight into Thursday. A cold front will pass through on Friday as a weak high builds in for the weekend. Another cold front approaches by Monday and stalls south of the area by midweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Convection has pushed south of Long Island and for the remainder of the night skies will clear with light and variable winds becoming NW. Patchy fog will also be a possible due to the weak flow and moist low levels.

Overnight lows will be in the 60s, which is right around normal.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. The upper low just off the New England coast opens up and shifts east through the day Thursday. Lift from an upper jet streak, shortwave energy and a surface trough may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as instability increases. Best combination of lift, CAPE and shear will be over the CT zones, where strong storms could occur. Generally speaking, showers and thunderstorms are below likely PoPs across the entire forecast area, but somewhat better overall chances are over the interior CT zones. High temperatures will be above normal, but heat indices are expected to remain below 95.

Shower/TSTM chances diminish in the evening with increasing stability. Warm and muggy overnight.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at NYC and LI Atlantic Ocean beaches on Thursday due to long period S/SE swell.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The upper level low over eastern New England weakens and finally heads east away from the forecast area, as longwave ridging builds into the Central Plains and OH Valley.

Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front approaches from the north on Friday, resulting in an increase chance of showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon. Model soundings are indicating some instability as lapse rates steepen by afternoon, and precipitable water values are approaching 2 inches. So expect any storms that do develop to be capable of producing locally heavy precipitation.

Temperatures will be seasonable on Friday, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. With dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, heat index values should only be a degree or two warmer.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at NYC and LI Atlantic Ocean beaches again on Friday.

The cold front pushes south of the region late in the day Friday into Friday night and stalls, as high pressure builds in from the north, bringing in slightly cooler and drier air. Generally dry conditions are expected for the weekend with chances of afternoon showers or thunderstorms each day, especially on Saturday, as a weak shortwave passes overhead. High temperatures for Saturday and Sunday are in the mid to upper 80s from NYC inland, and in the low to mid 80s near the coast.

By early next week, a stronger shortwave moves through the Great Lakes by Tuesday. At the surface, another frontal system approaches by Monday as a warm front pushes through the area, followed by a cold front on Tuesday. Temperatures are seasonable with a slight warm up expected by midweek.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. An upper level low along the northeast coast will begin to weaken and drift east during Thursday.

VFR. Patchy fog and stratus at the outlying terminals over eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut are possible overnight, and IFR conditions may occur toward morning at the these terminals.

VFR Thursday with isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly after 16Z and through the lower Hudson Valley and northeastern New Jersey.

Light and variable winds. There may be a NW light flow, however, the wind forecast overnight is uncertain and low confidence. Sea breezes develop once again during Thursday.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thursday night. VFR. Slight chance of shwrs and tstms east of the New York City early in the evening. Fri. Mainly VFR. Aftn/eve shwrs and tstms possible. Sat. Mainly VFR. Isold shwrs and tstms possible mainly wrn arpts. Sun-Mon. Mainly VFR. Aftn/eve shwrs and tstms possible, especially wrn areas.

MARINE. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels across all waters through the weekend with a weak pressure gradient. Winds may gust to 20kts for a short period Saturday afternoon across the ocean waters.

HYDROLOGY. Locally heavy rain is possible in any thunderstorms that occur over the forecast period, but widespread hydrologic issues are not anticipated.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of a SE swell and increasing astronomical tides will bring waters levels across western Long Island Sound and the south shore back bays of western Long Island close to minor coastal flood benchmarks during the evening high tide cycles through the upcoming weekend. Based on Steven's NYHOPS-E being overdone the last few high tide cycles and considering it's coarser SNAP-Ex being better, preference is toward a blend with the lower ETSS and ESTOFS. This keeps waters levels just below minor tonight. That being said, guidance all indicates a gradual uptick through the week due to the approaching full moon. Thus, there is the potential for a statement or an advisory level event as we head into Thursday and Friday.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JC/JP/DBR NEAR TERM . JC/DW SHORT TERM . JC LONG TERM . JP/DBR AVIATION . DJ MARINE . JC/JP/DBR HYDROLOGY . JC/JP/DBR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 14 mi73 min 67°F 1010.1 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi73 min 65°F 1009.6 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 26 mi43 min W 7.8 G 9.7 69°F 70°F1010.1 hPa65°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 40 mi73 min 65°F 1009.3 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY16 mi19 minN 0 mi68°F66°F93%1010.1 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT21 mi17 minN 01.00 miFog/Mist63°F61°F93%1009.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3N3NW4NW4NW53W53S534SW4SW6SW6SW4SW54Calm3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE3CalmCalmNE53NE5NE5E4343SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW3CalmNW3N4CalmN344N4W5W54N4CalmCalmCalmN3NW3CalmNW3NW4CalmN3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Threemile Harbor entrance, Gardiners Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Threemile Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:56 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:07 AM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:53 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.2-00.20.71.31.82.22.42.21.81.40.90.40.20.51.11.82.533.33.32.92.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:26 AM EDT     -3.66 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:51 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     2.87 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:49 PM EDT     -3.09 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:55 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:54 PM EDT     3.22 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:12 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-3.6-3.5-2.7-1.40.21.82.72.82.31.3-0.1-1.7-2.8-3.1-2.5-1.40.11.72.93.22.81.80.4-1.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.