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Marine Weather and Tides Northwest Harbor, NY Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 7:03AM

Sunset 4:58PM

Tuesday January 26, 2021 9:47 PM EST (02:47 UTC)

Moonrise 3:47PM

Moonset 6:36AM

Illumination 98%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northwest Harbor, NY

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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 270058 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 758 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. Weak low pressure moves south and east of Long Island tonight into Wednesday. A trough of low pressure also lingers near the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. A coastal storm develops and passes south of the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure then slowly builds back in through Saturday. Another low pressure system will then approach from the west and southwest either late this weekend or early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. Overall, the forecast is on track, with some adjustments made. The biggest was to drop the winter weather advisory for NYC and parts of NE NJ where temperatures have risen above 32 degrees. Temperatures in these locations are expected to remain above freezing for much if not all of the night. Despite temperatures warming above freezing, it should be noted that there may still be a few isolated spots that remain slick, and caution should still be exercised if out traveling tonight.

Otherwise, remains somewhat spotty across the western half of the region. Across parts of Long Island and and southern CT, the precipitation remains steady, but light. The precip across LI and CT remains some type of a wintry mix, although more snow/sleet across CT. The probability of precipitation decreases overnight, but a continued chance of light wintry mix inland and light rain near the coast.

Forecast total snow and sleet of generally 1-2 inches across the interior. Total amounts of under an inch in the NYC/NJ metro with just a trace to possibly a few tenths on Long Island.

As far as the Winter Weather Advisory, no changes across the interior. Expect the headlines across interior NE NJ, the lower Hudson Valley and southern CT to continue til 6 am where the greatest concern continues to the threat of icing as temperatures will remain at or below 32.

One thing to note, as the winds turn more northerly, and eventually northwesterly tonight, there is a chance that a few locations where no winter headlines currently exist, to fall back below freezing. This will need to be monitored. An SPS may be issued to address this concern.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Weak low pressure passes well offshore on Wednesday. An initial shortwave moves east of New England in the morning. There may be brief ridging aloft for a few hours late morning into the afternoon, before another shortwave is likely to approach. A trough of low pressure is probable to set up across eastern portions of the region. Due to the nearly consistent shortwave energy aloft and the low pressure trough, a low chance PoP remains in the forecast across eastern LI and eastern CT. Boundary layer temps look a bit warmer in the middle to upper 30s. The depth of moisture continues to look shallow, but the low level thermal profile on forecast soundings is a little colder. For these reasons, will just go with a light snow wording inland and light snow/light rain wording near the coast. The intensity should be very light and could end up just being flurries or sprinkles. Little to no additional accumulation is forecast with any light snow on Wednesday.

Model guidance has been struggling with the placement of the low pressure trough on Wednesday night. Have kept a slight chance in the forecast out east, but it is possible this sets up east of the area with drier conditions returning areawide.

Conditions otherwise will be mostly cloudy into Wednesday night. Lows will be in the 20s for most locations with lower 30s in the NYC metro.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The long term period will feature two main events. The first will be the cold Friday and Saturday, and the second will be the potential for a coastal storm sometime in the late weekend or early next week timeframe.

Before then, mainly dry weather is expected on Thursday as an area of low pressure passes south and east of the region. Meanwhile, strong high pressure will begin building south and east from the southern Canadian prairies. With the region in-between these two systems, a strong pressure gradient will develop. Expect a stretch of windy conditions for Thursday and Friday. As high pressure builds over the region to begin the weekend the winds will relax for Saturday and Saturday night. Friday and Saturday will be one of the colder 2 day periods of the winter thus far, with temperatures both days not getting out of the 20s. Overnight lows fall into the single digits and teens.

The next forecast challenge comes late this weekend into early next week with the approach of the next coastal storm. Most of the long range forecasts are indicating some impact to the local area with this next low, however there are timing differences with each of them. The GFS is the fastest of the models, with precipitation moving in Sunday afternoon/evening, while the slowest of the models is the ECMWF, which doesn't bring the precip in until Monday evening. As with most storms this far out, the other unknown will be the track this storm will take. Generally speaking, temperatures should be cold enough for snow to start, however the GFS brings the low close enough for the snow to mix with and change over to snow along the coast. The ECMWF/Canadian keep the system a little further offshore, meaning less of a chance for change over. Overall, this will be a system that will have to be watched for perhaps some winter weather impacts, but there is low confidence and high uncertainty with respect to intensity and precip type for the longevity / duration of the potential event.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A trough of low pressure shifts through the region tonight.

IFR tonight with drizzle for the city terminals and KISP, with potentially some sleet this evening and possibly some snow overnight. Elsewhere, a wintry mix of freezing drizzle, sleet and snow. IFR improves to MVFR Wednesday with lingering drizzle possible through mid-morning.

Little additional snow/ice accumulation expected.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Amendments possible for inclusion of sleet during the evening hours. There is a chance for a band of snow to impact the area in the 5-10Z time period.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Weds night. Improving to VFR late at night. Thu. VFR with NW winds gusting up to 35kt. Fri. VFR with NW winds gusting up to 40kt. Sat. VFR. Sun. Becoming MVFR or lower.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Weak low pressure passes just south and east of the waters tonight. Winds on the ocean have stayed below 25 kt this afternoon. Seas will be between 3 and 4 ft through tonight. With an easterly fetch, they could briefly reach 5 ft east of Moriches inlet. The low moves further east on Wednesday. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels during this time. Another low pressure develops off the southeast coast Wednesday night. The pressure gradient over the waters begins to increase with potential of winds gusting to 25 kt on the ocean by early Thursday morning.

Low pressure intensifies Thursday with SCA conditions expected on the area waters. Gales will become increasingly likely on the ocean waters Thursday night and into Friday, with the potential for gales on the non-ocean waters. Conditions are expected to subside back below SCA conditions for the second half of Saturday from west to east as high pressure begins to settle north of the waters for later Saturday and Saturday night. Conditions build back to SCA levels early next week with the approach of another low pressure system.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through the upcoming weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ005>012. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ067>071. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NJZ002- 004-103-104. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . BC/DS NEAR TERM . BC/DS SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . BC AVIATION . JC MARINE . BC/DS HYDROLOGY . BC/DS

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY	14 mi	407 min		33°F	38°F		1013.9 hPa (-2.6)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather	19 mi	397 min	ENE 11 G 14	31°F			1012.2 hPa	18°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT	23 mi	407 min		29°F	32°F		1014.4 hPa (-2.8)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY	26 mi	387 min	E 18 G 21	36°F	45°F		1013.5 hPa	34°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT	40 mi	407 min	NE 5.1 G 8	29°F	37°F		1015.5 hPa (-2.2)

Wind History for New London, CT

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY	16 mi	53 min	E 5	mi		36°F	34°F	93%	1012.1 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT	21 mi	51 min	NE 9	3.00 mi	Light Snow Fog/Mist	31°F	29°F	92%	1012.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Threemile Harbor entrance, Gardiners Bay, Long Island Sound, New York

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Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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