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Marine Weather and Tides Northwest Harbor, NY Version 3.4

NOTICE 3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone. 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 5:39AM

Sunset 8:10PM

Thursday July 29, 2021 10:22 AM EDT (14:22 UTC)

Moonrise 11:26PM

Moonset 11:30AM

Illumination 73%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northwest Harbor, NY

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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 291137 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 737 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will approach from the southwest today, getting very close to the area late today into this evening before a cold frontal passage tonight. A secondary cold front will move through Friday afternoon, followed by high pressure building from the northern Plains through Saturday. Broad low pressure will move across northern New York state Sunday, followed briefly by high pressure on Monday. A low pressure system over the Ohio Valley will then bring unsettled weather through the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. High pressure remains over the area early this morning, with a stationary front extending from Lake Erie SE to the VA Tidewater region. The front should lift slowly NE today as a shortwave trough generating convection from Lake Huron and MI into N IN/IL approaches. An embedded MCV apparent on radar over SW MI will race ESE today across OH and western PA into the into the Mid Atlantic region and likely produce a swath of severe wx. SPC enhanced risk follows the projected path of this MCV into srn PA/NJ, but with the warm front lifting toward the area still expect sct to numerous showers and tstms this afternoon. Initial storms with the approaching warm front are unlikely to be severe due to limited instability/shear, then as instability and lift increase late this afternoon via cooling aloft with the approach of the shortwave trough, and as low level wind profiles increase, showers/tstms should become more numerous late this afternoon into this evening. Given veering/increasing low level wind profiles from SE-S to SW with 25 kt below 1 km AGL, and PW increasing to near 2 inches in the warm sector toward evening, some storms could produce damaging winds and/or very heavy rain, with an isolated tornado not out of the question. Greaser severe/heavy rain potential lies across NE NJ, NYC, and areas just north and east, where SPC has forecast a slight risk of severe tstms. The threat north/east of there is more marginal/conditional depending on the position of the warm front late today and also the track of the MCV.

High temps today should only be in the mid/upper 70s, with lows tonight in the 60s to near 70.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The sfc cold front should pass east early Fri morning, with some lingering showers still possible over SE CT and ern Long Island early. A secondary dry cold front will pass through in the afternoon as the upper trough axis passes, and winds should shift NW and increase to 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph during the late afternoon and early evening.

With downslope flow, temps daytime Fri in NYC metro and along the coast should reach the lower/mid 80s, with upper 70s to the NW. Fairly strong CAA for this time of year will result in some of the cooler temps seen so far this summer Fri night, with lows in the lower 60s in NYC, in the 50s most elsewhere, and some upper 40s well inland and in the Long Island Pine Barrens.

Dry wx should continue on Sat, with fair wx cu and also some mid level clouds mainly inland as a shortwave trough aloft approaches upstate NY and New England. High temps should range from the lower 80s in the NYC metro area, to the mid/upper 70s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. An active synoptic pattern is expected to continue into the long term forecast. A trough axis extending from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes region pivots into New York state Sunday. A shortwave trough accelerates through the base of the trough reaching southern New York late Sunday into Monday morning provides the lift needed for additional showers and thunderstorms. It still uncertain how far south the showers will extend but the model agreement is valid enough for chance PoPs. The lull Monday afternoon is expected to be brief as the overall longwave trough deepens a second system late Monday into Tuesday beneath a 100kt upper level jet. This low pressure system rides the southwest flow from the Carolinas into the waters south of Island as a coastal low. This promotes another fair chance for showers Tuesday but the overall intensity will be questionable. Temperatures for the first half of the long term change little with max temps in the low 80s and overnight minimums in the mid 60s.

Heading into the middle of the week next week, long range guidance shows the southern portion of the longwave trough slowing its eastward movement and possibly becoming a cut off upper level low. This could setup a pattern of rich Gulf moisture being advected into the area coupled with slow synoptic progression. The uncertainty in where the axis of 1.80 to 2.00 in PWATS settles remains high. For now be aware of heavy rain potential in the latter half of the week next week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A warm front approaches from the southwest today and a frontal system pushes through the area this afternoon and evening.

Moderate potential for MVFR cigs to develop this morning with localized IFR possible within thick stratus. Light showers possible for western terminals through the morning, and then for eastern terminals in the afternoon.

MVFR cigs may have a hard time improving until potential line of shra/tsra moving in from the west in late afternoon/evening. NYC/NJ terminals have best chance of seeing a line of tsra in the aft/eve, which could be potentially strong to severe.

Timing of improvement in cigs this evening will depend on when organized convection moves through, but likelihood that MVFR/IFR cigs will return overnight tonight with isolated showers possible through midnight.

SE flow 8-12kt for coastal terminals this morning and will continue through the afternoon. Uncertainty on wind direction in evening but could see 30-35 kts with higher gusts within strong to severe thunderstorms.

West north west winds following the day's storms 5-10 kts overnight could increase to 10-15kts with potential gusts Friday morning into the afternoon.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

MVFR cigs possible to develop before morning push, with increasing likelihood to develop through the morning push.

MVFR cigs likely continue through the day into evening push. A line of tsra 20-02z could have MVFR to IFR conditions and wind gusts greater than what is currently indicated in the TAFs.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Friday. Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower. NW winds G20kt late day/evening. Saturday. VFR. Sunday. Mainly VFR with chance of showers . mainly at night. Monday. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Issued SCA for the ocean waters for late this afternoon into tonight. S flow with an approaching warm front likely to gust up to 25 kt during this time on the ocean, with seas building to 5 ft. Tstms will also present a hazard during this time.

After a brief lull, SCA conds likely on all waters Fri afternoon/night after a secondary cold frontal passage, with gusts 25-30 kt, also ocean seas building to 4-6 ft. Conds should fall below SCA criteria by Sat AM.

Winds Saturday evening are out of the southwest 10-15 kt and seas hover around 3 ft, so overall sub-SCA conditions likely to continue through Sunday, though ocean seas pick up to around 4-5 feet late Sunday ahead of a cold front. Northwest winds Monday become NE on Tuesday with the passage of a coastal low.

HYDROLOGY. There is the potential for 1/2 to 1 inch of rainfall this afternoon and tonight, with locally higher amounts possible. Minor urban and poor drainage flooding is possible.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A moderate risk of rip current development will develop at ocean beaches on Thursday due to building S wind waves and lingering SE swell. There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches again on Friday despite offshore flow, due to residual 3 ft S swell.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ353-355. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . BG/DJ NEAR TERM . BG SHORT TERM . BG LONG TERM . DJ AVIATION . DJ/NV MARINE . BG/DJ HYDROLOGY . BG/DJ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . BG

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY	14 mi	52 min		71°F	71°F		1017 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather	19 mi	42 min	S 8 G 8.9	71°F			1015.4 hPa	60°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT	23 mi	52 min		72°F	69°F		1016.8 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY	26 mi	42 min	S 9.7 G 12	71°F	72°F		1016.9 hPa	64°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT	40 mi	52 min	SSW 11 G 12	73°F	74°F		1017 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY	16 mi	28 min	Var 3	mi		74°F	65°F	74%	1017.1 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT	21 mi	26 min	S 9	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	72°F	66°F	82%	1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Threemile Harbor entrance, Gardiners Bay, Long Island Sound, New York

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Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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