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Marine Weather and Tides Northwest Harbor, NY Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 5:18AM

Sunset 8:27PM

Thursday July 2, 2020 4:13 AM EDT (08:13 UTC)

Moonrise 6:05PM

Moonset 3:04AM

Illumination 89%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northwest Harbor, NY

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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 020543 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 143 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. An upper level low will slowly exit to the east overnight into Thursday. A cold front will pass through on Friday as a weak high builds in for the weekend. Another cold front approaches by Monday and stalls south of the area by midweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Convection has pushed south of Long Island and for the remainder of the night skies will clear with light and variable winds becoming NW. Patchy fog will also be a possible due to the weak flow and moist low levels.

Overnight lows will be in the 60s, which is right around normal.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. The upper low just off the New England coast opens up and shifts east through the day Thursday. Lift from an upper jet streak, shortwave energy and a surface trough may trigger a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as instability increases. Best combination of lift, CAPE and shear will be over the CT zones, where strong storms could occur. Generally speaking, showers and thunderstorms are below likely PoPs across the entire forecast area, but somewhat better overall chances are over the interior CT zones. High temperatures will be above normal, but heat indices are expected to remain below 95.

Shower/TSTM chances diminish in the evening with increasing stability. Warm and muggy overnight.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at NYC and LI Atlantic Ocean beaches on Thursday due to long period S/SE swell.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The upper level low over eastern New England weakens and finally heads east away from the forecast area, as longwave ridging builds into the Central Plains and OH Valley.

Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front approaches from the north on Friday, resulting in an increase chance of showers and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon. Model soundings are indicating some instability as lapse rates steepen by afternoon, and precipitable water values are approaching 2 inches. So expect any storms that do develop to be capable of producing locally heavy precipitation.

Temperatures will be seasonable on Friday, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. With dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, heat index values should only be a degree or two warmer.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at NYC and LI Atlantic Ocean beaches again on Friday.

The cold front pushes south of the region late in the day Friday into Friday night and stalls, as high pressure builds in from the north, bringing in slightly cooler and drier air. Generally dry conditions are expected for the weekend with chances of afternoon showers or thunderstorms each day, especially on Saturday, as a weak shortwave passes overhead. High temperatures for Saturday and Sunday are in the mid to upper 80s from NYC inland, and in the low to mid 80s near the coast.

By early next week, a stronger shortwave moves through the Great Lakes by Tuesday. At the surface, another frontal system approaches by Monday as a warm front pushes through the area, followed by a cold front on Tuesday. Temperatures are seasonable with a slight warm up expected by midweek.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. An upper level low along the northeast coast will begin to weaken and drift east during Thursday.

VFR. Patchy fog and stratus at the outlying terminals over eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut are possible overnight, and IFR conditions may occur toward morning at the these terminals.

VFR Thursday with isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly after 16Z and through the lower Hudson Valley and northeastern New Jersey.

Light and variable winds. There may be a NW light flow, however, the wind forecast overnight is uncertain and low confidence. Sea breezes develop once again during Thursday.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thursday night. VFR. Slight chance of shwrs and tstms east of the New York City early in the evening. Fri. Mainly VFR. Aftn/eve shwrs and tstms possible. Sat. Mainly VFR. Isold shwrs and tstms possible mainly wrn arpts. Sun-Mon. Mainly VFR. Aftn/eve shwrs and tstms possible, especially wrn areas.

MARINE. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels across all waters through the weekend with a weak pressure gradient. Winds may gust to 20kts for a short period Saturday afternoon across the ocean waters.

HYDROLOGY. Locally heavy rain is possible in any thunderstorms that occur over the forecast period, but widespread hydrologic issues are not anticipated.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of a SE swell and increasing astronomical tides will bring waters levels across western Long Island Sound and the south shore back bays of western Long Island close to minor coastal flood benchmarks during the evening high tide cycles through the upcoming weekend. Based on Steven's NYHOPS-E being overdone the last few high tide cycles and considering it's coarser SNAP-Ex being better, preference is toward a blend with the lower ETSS and ESTOFS. This keeps waters levels just below minor tonight. That being said, guidance all indicates a gradual uptick through the week due to the approaching full moon. Thus, there is the potential for a statement or an advisory level event as we head into Thursday and Friday.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JC/JP/DBR NEAR TERM . JC/DW SHORT TERM . JC LONG TERM . JP/DBR AVIATION . DJ MARINE . JC/JP/DBR HYDROLOGY . JC/JP/DBR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY	14 mi	73 min		67°F			1010.1 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT	23 mi	73 min		65°F			1009.6 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY	26 mi	43 min	W 7.8 G 9.7	69°F	70°F		1010.1 hPa	65°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT	40 mi	73 min		65°F			1009.3 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY	16 mi	19 min	N 0	mi		68°F	66°F	93%	1010.1 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT	21 mi	17 min	N 0	1.00 mi	Fog/Mist	63°F	61°F	93%	1009.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Threemile Harbor entrance, Gardiners Bay, Long Island Sound, New York

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Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY

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