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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 922 Am Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Rest of today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the evening, then slight chance of rain and drizzle after midnight. Areas of fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain in the evening, then chance of rain after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 922 Am Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. A weak wave of low pressure impacts the region late today through tonight. Low pressure moving toward the great lakes on Sunday will weaken, with a secondary low forming south of long island Sunday evening and moving east into the atlantic later Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will return for Monday and Tuesday.

FXUS61 KOKX 011421 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 921 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS
A weak wave of low pressure will impact the region late today through tonight. Another low moving toward the Great Lakes on Sunday will weaken, with a secondary low forming south of Long Island Sunday evening and moving east into the Atlantic later Sunday night into Monday. High pressure will return for Monday and Tuesday. Low pressure will then form off the southern Mid Atlantic coast and move out to sea on Wednesday, followed by building high pressure on Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
The forecast remains mostly on track. The only notable adjustment for this update were increasing POPs 20-30% for northern and western portions of the CWA to account for 12Z CAMs showing a line of rain pushing through preceding the main system, which is also mentioned more in the discussion below.

The day begins with weak high pressure in place, which should hold off any rainfall during the morning with maybe an exception towards noon well north and west as lift is enhanced here with the passage of an upper jet streak. Rain otherwise becomes likely generally west to east late in the day into tonight as isentropic lift and mid- level shortwave energy shift through. Mid-levels dry out late tonight with still some lower level lift potentially producing some drizzle with the remnant low level moisture. Models have trended weaker regarding wind speeds at the base of a low level inversion late tonight, so with not as high of a chance that turbulent mixing disrupts fog formation, coupled with light and variable surface winds, have added areas of fog to the forecast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Low level moisture becomes even more shallow on Saturday along with weaker lift. Have therefore gone with a dry forecast outside of any potential drizzle very early on. Remaining mostly cloudy however, but temperatures will still be above normal in the mid 50s. The next area of low pressure approaches from the south during Saturday night. Rain becomes likely for mainly southern areas after midnight.
Temperatures remaining above normal with cloudy conditions.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Rain expected for Sunday into Sunday night as primary low pressure weakens to the west and a new center forms just south of Long Island Sunday evening. Cyclonic low level flow in its wake as the low moves well out to sea should maintain a fair amount of clouds for Mon in its wake, along with a gusty W wind. Both days should feature temps a few degrees above normal, with colder wx returning Mon night and beyond as a weak secondary cold front moves through.

Mostly dry wx forecast from that point on. A digging nrn stream shortwave trough should initiate Miller B type cyclogenesis E of Hatteras on Wed with the global models showing the low moving due E out to sea, but this situation bears some watching as it could be less progressive than forecast as previously noted given model tendency to underdo western Atlantic ridging downstream of the digging trough, also presence of some ridging aloft near Greenland and a 50/50 upper low, all of which might allow the low to get close enough for its precip shield to graze the coast before exiting.
Forecast carries slight chance PoP for snow/rain showers on land and chance PoP just offshore.

High pressure is then progged to build in for later in the week.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure will remain to the S today. Low pressure will then pass to the W tonight.

VFR for most of the day, then MVFR developing possibly as early as 22Z-23Z with light rain, but more likely after 00Z-01Z.
Areas of IFR likely after 02Z-03Z with light rain or drizzle.

SSW winds 5-10 kt should back more S this afternoon. Winds become light/variable in most spots tonight, but may veer SW along the coast.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: Fog/drizzle with IFR cond should improve to MVFR at KGON/KISP by 14Z-15Z and to VFR elsewhere. VFR at all terminals by afternoon.

Saturday night: Rain likely with possible MVFR cond late.

Sunday: Rain expected with IFR cond likely. N winds G15-20kt NYC metro/coast late at night.

Monday: MVFR possible early north/east of the NYC metros, otherwise VFR. W winds G20kt, becoming NW G20-25kt at night.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Expecting an extended period of sub-advisory conditions through at least Sunday with winds becoming lighter today and remaining on the the light side well into the weekend. There could be a brief period Saturday afternoon where a swell builds to 5 ft on the eastern ocean waters, but not anticipating the need for an advisory just yet.

A period of SCA cond expected for the ocean waters from Sunday night into Tue AM, with W flow gusting to 25 kt and seas building to 5-6 ft in the wake of departing low pressure, then shifting NW with passage of a secondary cold front with gusts increasing to 30 kt and seas to 5-7 ft. SCA cond likely on the non ocean waters Mon night following this fropa as well, with NW flow gusting to 25 kt.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected with today/tonight's rainfall. Rainfall of about 3/4 inch expected Sunday into Sunday night. Light to moderate intensity and long duration preclude any issues.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Stamford
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Fri -- 01:35 AM EST     6.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:42 AM EST     0.81 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:02 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:42 PM EST     7.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:19 PM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Stamford, Connecticut, Tide feet

Throg's Neck
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Fri -- 02:08 AM EST     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:04 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:20 AM EST     0.88 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:02 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:15 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:33 PM EST     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:28 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:22 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:44 PM EST     0.85 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:29 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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