Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island Heights, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:56PM Thursday January 23, 2020 10:08 PM EST (03:08 UTC) Moonrise 7:20AMMoonset 4:44PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 543 Pm Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..S winds around 10 kt, becoming sw with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain in the evening.
Sun..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 543 Pm Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure across the area into Friday will gradually give way to a low pressure system approaching from the southwest Friday night. Low pressure tracks across the region over the weekend and into the canadian maritimes on Monday. High pressure then returns early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island Heights, NY
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location: 41.06, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 232324 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 624 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure across the area into Friday will gradually give way to a low pressure system approaching from the southwest Friday night. Low pressure tracks across the region over the weekend and into the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. High pressure then remains in control through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Little change has been made to the near term forecast with this update as it is mostly on track.

Upper level ridging along the eastern seaboard will be slow to translate east through Friday as a deepening southern branch closed low tracks from the Mid Mississippi Valley up into the Ohio Valley. High clouds ahead of the system will likely prevail through the first half of the night with some clearing possible late. While the airmass continues to gradually moderate under a deep-layered SW flow, light winds and some clearing could make overnight lows a bit tricky, especially across locations that radiate particularly well. For now, generally looking at readings 5-8 degrees above normal. Lows will generally be in the 20s in outlying areas to the low to mid 30s across the NYC metro. Once again, a few spots could vary significantly from the forecast should more clearing be realized.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Enhanced ridging aloft on Friday will result in partly to mostly sunny skies as the aforementioned upper low lifts out of the Mid Mississippi Valley. High pressure over the area retreats to the north and east as light NE winds in the morning veer around to the east. Winds will gradually strengthen through Friday night with possible gusts up to 20 mph along the coast by daybreak.

Clouds will return late Friday night as a frontal wave develops over the Mid Atlantic and light warm advection precipitation works into western sections toward daybreak. While temperatures profiles will continue to warm aloft, any precipitation across the interior could briefly mix with sleet and/or snow. The intensity will be very light with a plenty of dry air to overcome. However, there is more concern for spotty light freezing rain, which will go over to all rain by late morning (see Long Term section below).

Lows will range from near freezing across the interior to the mid and upper 30s along the coast.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. 500mb low center tracks NE from the Ohio Valley Saturday and passes to our north Sunday afternoon into evening. An associated surface low approaches us from the Mid-Atlantic Saturday, and its center is progged to pass through the Tri-State Area late day into evening Saturday. PCPN will spread generally west to east across the entire forecast area through the day. Mid-levels dry out and the best forcing shifts north with the surface low Saturday night, so PoPs diminish Saturday night with any PCPN on the light side.

This is mainly a rain event, and the magnitude of an an elevated warm layer will preclude snow as a possible PCPN type for most of the area through Saturday evening. Only parts of western Orange County could potentially start with a mix of snow. The elevated warm layer erodes late night Saturday, but mid-level drying may still preclude snow with a lack of ice nucleation. Right now it appears that the only areas that could need an advisory would be well-inland areas north of NYC, and this would be for freezing rain. Ice accretion amounts would mostly likely be under a tenth of an inch. The opportunity for freezing rain doesn't look to be too long as cold air damming won't be much of a factor with temps rising above freezing by noon and PCPN doesn't become likely for these areas until Saturday morning.

Chance PoPs are still forecast for Sunday morning with the return of some mid-level moisture and PVA associated with a shortwave rotating around the closed upper low to our north. This brings the potential of rain showers or mixed rain and snow showers. Dry Sunday afternoon with lift shifting out of the region.

High pressure builds in behind the storm with dry weather for Monday through Wednesday. Highs all 3 days about 5 degrees above normal. Thursday so far appears to be dry with high pressure still in control and a storm to the south too distant to bring any PCPN here.

AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR with high pressure over the terminals into Friday. High pressure then slides east Friday night with VFR conditions giving way to MVFR very late Friday night (mainly after 8-9z).

Mainly light and variable winds through tonight. Light winds continue on Friday, but gradually become NE-E. Winds mainly east Friday evening and slowly increasing to around 10 kt for the city and coastal terminals.

OUTLOOK FOR 0Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Friday night. VFR, then lowering to MVFR late with rain for most terminals, with a possible wintry mix at KSWF. Saturday. MVFR/IFR in rain at the coast, mixed precipitation across the interior likely changing to rain. E winds 10-20G20-25 kt during the day diminish at night. Sunday. MVFR/IFR possible in lingering showers. Rain or snow showers possible across the interior. Monday-Tuesday. VFR.

MARINE. High pressure lifts to the north and east on Friday with a frontal wave approaching from the southwest Friday night. A gradually strengthening easterly flow will approach SCA levels by daybreak Saturday with seas reaching 5 ft just after midnight. Thus, a SCA has been issued for the ocean waters.

SCA conds are anticipated on Saturday for all waters as the low passes through or nearby. There could even be a brief period in the late morning/early afternoon where gale force gusts could occur, mainly on the ocean waters. Winds on the back side of this storm still do not appear to be strong, but 25 kt gusts will still be possible Sunday morning on the ocean. Ocean seas will take some time to subside, so 5 ft or greater seas on the ocean through the day on Sunday and probably into a good portion of Monday. Sub-sca conds on all waters are then anticipated for Monday night and Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY. An inch to an inch and a half rainfall is expected Saturday through Saturday night. No adverse hydrologic impacts are anticipated at this point.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A moderate easterly flow combined with relatively high astronomical high tides will bring the threat of minor coastal flooding during the high tides cycles of Saturday morning and afternoon. The main threat at this time appears to be across the south shore back bay locations of Nassau County, where localized moderate is still a possibility. Elsewhere, water levels will be close to minor coastal flood benchmarks across the south shore bays of western Long Island, lower New York Harbor, and along western Long Island Sound. A advisory and/or statement is likely to be issued late tonight or on Friday as forecast confidence increases.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JC/DW NEAR TERM . DW SHORT TERM . DW LONG TERM . JC AVIATION . JE MARINE . JC/DW HYDROLOGY . JC/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi56 min 40°F 38°F1028.4 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 25 mi50 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 33 mi50 min Calm G 0 36°F 37°F1027.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi50 min N 1.9 G 4.1 34°F 38°F1027.8 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W7SW7--SW7S5W4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN8NW8N9N4NW5W4NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN7N6
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Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Long Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:42 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:11 AM EST     2.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:31 PM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:44 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:44 PM EST     2.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.60.100.30.91.52.12.62.82.72.31.71.10.3-0.2-0.20.10.61.11.61.921.8

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:02 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:06 AM EST     1.72 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:02 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:15 AM EST     -1.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:55 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:45 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:38 PM EST     1.27 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:10 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:24 PM EST     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.2-0.8-00.91.51.71.60.90-0.8-1.4-1.7-1.6-1.4-0.80.10.91.21.30.90.1-0.6-1.2-1.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.