Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shelter Island Heights, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Temperatures and dewpoints were adjusted to better align with the current observations and trends with the front moving through. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with this evening update.

A weak cold front was moving east of the region early this evening, with high pressure beginning to build to the west.
A light NW to N flow will persist through tonight, though the light flow may end up becoming light and variable or calm at some locations. This may result in some outlying spots to cool a bit more than coastal or more urban locations. Lows tonight will generally be in the upper 40s to low 50s closer to the NYC metro. Outlying locations may cool into the middle to possibly lower 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure will build into the area into Wednesday with mid-level flow remaining fairly zonal. This will result in a slightly cooler airmass than Tuesday, though it should be much clearer, especially along the coast. High temperatures will rise into the low 70s for much of the interior. NE NJ and the NYc metro may rise into the middle 70s with Long Island and the immediate coast topping out in the middle to upper 60s.

High pressure overhead will result in fairly light flow which will allow for seabreezes to dominate the flow for the coast. The relatively cold ocean will prevent coastal areas from rising too high in temperature and is the reason highs will be lower in these locations.

High pressure continues to dominate into Wednesday night with light flow and clear skies. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the middle 40s to lower 50s with the warmer spots being in and around the NYC metro.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
12Z global models haven't changed much from their prior 00Z runs. They continue to fluctuate with the timing of the frontal system for late Friday into Saturday. The 12Z GFS is still the fastest of the globals, by about 12h. The timing seems to hinge on the complex interaction of southern branch PAC NW energy and multiple pieces of northern branch energy dropping across central Canada toward the end of this week. Remained close to the NBM during this time.

High pressure offshore at the start of this period will retreat out into the Atlantic while the aforementioned frontal system brings a chance of showers into the area Friday afternoon with the most likely timeframe after midnight Friday through the day on Saturday.
Marginal instability could result in isolated thunderstorms north and west of the NYC metro Saturday afternoon. Onshore flow and weak lapse rates should limit coverage, but kept slight chance for thunder for much of the area given the uncertainty in timing of the front. High pressure then builds in from the west Sunday into Monday.

Temperatures remain above normal through Saturday, warmest Thursday night through Friday night (5 to 10 degrees). A return closer to normal is expected Sunday into Monday following the frontal system.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure builds in from the west tonight, and will be over the region Wednesday.

VFR through the TAF period.

Westerly flow 10 kt or less early this evening veers to NW then N late evening into the overnight. The flow then backs to the west late morning to around midday at the coastal terminals, and into the mid afternoon inland. Sea breezes are likely to develop at the coastal terminals during the afternoon, and may be around an hour earlier than forecast.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A sea breeze is likely Wednesday afternoon at KJFK, and late afternoon at KLGA, and may be about an hour earlier at KJFK. At this time the sea breeze is not likely to reach KEWR and KTEB with the flow becoming westerly during the afternoon.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday night-Thursday: VFR.

Friday: VFR during the day.

Friday Night-Saturday: MVFR or lower in showers. An isolated thunderstorm possible Saturday. SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Sunday: VFR. N gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Light flow with high pressure building overhead will result in sub- SCA conditions through at least Friday. The next chance for SCA conditions will be Friday night into Saturday night with a frontal system moving across the waters. However, these conditions would only be marginal, should they occur. They will subside by Sunday morning, remaining below SCA criteria into the beginning of next week.

HYDROLOGY
At this time there are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.