Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island Heights, NY

Version 3.4
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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:22PM Thursday July 18, 2019 1:27 PM EDT (17:27 UTC) Moonrise 9:42PMMoonset 6:59AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 110 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
This afternoon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 110 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak cold front sags slowly south through the area today, gradually washing out as it works offshore tonight. High pressure builds back into the area and will remain centered over the southeastern states into the weekend. A cold front approaches Monday and moves through Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island Heights, NY
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location: 41.06, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 181409
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1009 am edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
A weak cold front sags slowly south through the area today,
gradually washing out as it works offshore tonight. High
pressure will then build in for Friday. A warm front will lift
north of the region Friday night. Bermuda high pressure will be
in place over the weekend. A cold front approaches Monday and
moves through Monday night. High pressure returns for Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Scattered showers will continue to focus along a weak cold front
sagging south across the area. Additionally, weak shortwave
energy and difluent upper flow will provide some lift. The
uncertainty lies in how much the airmass can destabilize later
today should breaks in the overcast develop. This would
increase the potential for isolated severe wet microbursts,
with the best chance being inland.

Pw values in excess of 2 inches and weak shear also supports
slow moving cells with a localized heavy rainfall. The best
chances for any poor drainage or low lying flooding will be
across northeastern new jersey where areas received heavy
rainfall Wednesday.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
Additional energy moves through aloft tonight with weak low
pressure riding along the nearly stationary frontal boundary.

With weak forcing will keep mainly chance and slight chance
probabilities until the low moves east of the area late. With
very little CAPE and no instability will mention only showers.

Friday high pressure will dominate as weak ridging builds into
the area from the sub tropical high centered over the
southeastern states. Temperatures at 850mb will be nearing 23
degrees c by late in the day with the warm air moving along the
periphery of the ridge, and into the western areas. Dew points
will be remaining into the lower to mid 70s. As a result heat
indices across the lower hudson valley and into new york city
will be around 105. With the potential for reach warning level
heat indices, have expanded the excessive heat watch into the
lower hudson valley and new york city.

There is a low rip current risk at the ocean beaches for
Friday.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
The main concern for this period will be the high heat and
humidity that is expected to impact the area both Saturday and
Sunday as a bermuda high builds over the northern atlantic.

The warmest day of the weekend will be Saturday, with highs
around 100 for NE nj, and some locations within the city, and
90s elsewhere. Heat index values will reach at least advisory
levels everywhere, and a significant portion of the forecast
area will reach warning level. Heat index values will range from
100-112 across most of the cwa, the exception being the far
eastern portion of long island. As a result, an excessive heat
watch is in effect for the entire cwa.

Another hot day is expected on Sunday. It should be slightly
cooler on Sunday, however it probably wont feel that way as
temperatures once again climb into the 90s, with heat index
values reaching the upper 90s and lower 100 for most of the cwa.

Once again, the one exception will the the far eastern end of
long island. As it stands right now, it looks like a good bet
for at least advisory level conditions for most if not all of
the cwa.

With respect to precipitation, thermal troughs are expected to
developing both days, which could result in showers and
thunderstorms for Saturday and Sunday. Any storms that develop
on Saturday would be late in the day and mainly north and west
of nyc. Showers or thunderstorm activity, should be more
widespread on Sunday. Precipitation chances increase Sunday
night into Monday, with best chances for rain Monday afternoon
as a cold front approaches. The front looks to move through late
Monday into Monday night, with high pressure for Tuesday.

Temperatures will be cooler for Monday thanks to increase
cloudiness, though humidity levels will still be high. More
comfortable conditions are expected for Tuesday as dew points
fall behind the cold front.

High pressure builds back into the region Wednesday.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
Weak low pressure moves east of the area with a cold front
slowly moving through the region from north to south this
afternoon.

MVFR to ifr conditions generally prevailing across the area.

MVFR is expected to prevail for the most part, although a brief period
ofVFR is possible this aftn. A return to MVFR ifr conditions
expected this evening. Sct showers will prevail across the area
which may reduced visibilities below 1 mile at times. There is
also a low chance of thunderstorms at all terminals except kgon.

Showers end this eve with the front pushing south of long
island.

Weak waves of low pres riding along the approaching front will
result in a tough wind forecast today. A light (less than 10
kt) e-ne flow is expected to develop but there is the potential
for winds to veer to the SE for nyc nj terminals.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi57 min 73°F 71°F1013.7 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 22 mi32 min E 6 G 7 72°F 1012.4 hPa71°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 25 mi57 min S 2.9 G 4.1 74°F 68°F1013.6 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi37 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 76°F 75°F1013.3 hPa74°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi63 min E 5.1 G 7 74°F 71°F1012.7 hPa
44069 46 mi57 min Calm G 0 81°F 82°F73°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi34 minESE 510.00 miOvercast78°F75°F90%1013.4 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY23 mi33 minN 0 mi74°F73°F97%1013.9 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi32 minENE 80.50 miLight Rain73°F71°F94%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW9
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SW10SW10SW6SW7SW3CalmN6N4CalmS3CalmCalmS5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS5S5SE3SE5
1 day agoSW8SW10
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2 days agoW7SW12SW9SW8SW8SW7SW5SW5SW6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalm66SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Long Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:14 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:23 PM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:20 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.72.21.71.10.50.20.30.71.31.72.12.42.321.61.20.80.50.611.62.12.5

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:06 AM EDT     -1.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:04 AM EDT     1.22 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:16 PM EDT     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:36 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     1.54 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-1.4-1.7-1.5-1.2-0.60.311.21.10.70-0.7-1.2-1.5-1.4-1-0.50.31.21.51.51.10.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.