Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island Heights, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:22PM Sunday December 8, 2019 2:14 PM EST (19:14 UTC) Moonrise 3:30PMMoonset 4:06AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1212 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the evening, then rain and snow likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1212 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure across the waters passes east by early this afternoon. A frontal system will then impact the area Monday through Tuesday night. High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island Heights, NY
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location: 41.06, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 081826 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 126 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will pass east today. A warm front will approach late tonight into Monday, and lift through to the northeast Monday night. A cold front will approach on Tuesday and slowly passes east Tuesday night into Wednesday. Arctic high pressure will then follow later in the week before another potential storm system arrives next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Forecast on track this afternoon. High clouds will increase and thicken through the afternoon. Sky conditions should become partly to mostly cloudy. High temps will reach the lower 40s metro/coast and upper 30s inland, about 5 deg below avg.

Mid level shortwave energy arrives beginning this evening, with chances for showers increasing from the south mainly after midnight. Have sided more with a start time past midnight and the new 12z NAM and GFS agree with previous forecast. Early evening lows should be followed by steady or rising temps in deep layer WAA, with temps by daybreak ranging from the 30s well north/west, to the mid 40s NYC metro/most of Long Island, to the lower 50s ern Long Island. Precip arrives too late for any freezing rain issues in western Orange County where temps by daybreak may still be just below 32F.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Should see rainfall with the approaching frontal sys in two primary waves. The first will come with the warm frontal approach/passage today tonight, then should a break in precip as we get into the warm sector late Mon night and Tue AM before precip with and mostly behind the approaching cold front arrives Tue afternoon/night.

Model consensus is for axis of heavier precip with the warm front to be placed farther east, more across Long Island and SE CT than areas to the west. Removed mention of thunder in most places as elevated instability should be minimal, though there does appear to be a window of opportunity for heavier showers and isolated thunder across eastern Long Island and coastal SE CT with warm fropa that may have to be watched for strong wind potential as well.

Temps in the warm sector will be on the mild side, with widespread 50s for highs on Mon, even lower 60s across ern Long Island per consensus MOS. Temps should not fall much Mon night, the should be even milder on Tue, with lower 60s metro/Long Island/SE CT, and 55-60 elsewhere.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As another shortwave rotates around the back side of the upper trough in central Canada, there are indications that rain moves just east, with additional rain/precip shield tracking northeast on the back side of the front Tuesday night into Wednesday due to upper level support. Assuming that does indeed occur, colder air will move in behind the front which will result in a transition from rain to snow, mix in between. This could result in light snow accumulations later Tuesday night into Wednesday, NW to SE.

The upper trough weakens as it pivots east, and sfc high pressure builds in from the west late Wed, Wed night and Thursday. This will be the period of dry, but cold weather. Could be looking at the coldest air of the season, with temps struggling to reach or exceed freezing Thursday after a cold start to the day.

Shortwave ridging moves east Thu night, with sfc high moving north and east of the area. Easterly flow then sets up, with dry conditions likely lingering into Friday. Thereafter, model spread grows, with latest run of the operational GFS quicker with southern shortwave's movement east, which steers a sfc low out of the Gulf of Mexico and off the SE coast later Friday and Friday night, whereas Canadian and ECMWF are much slower with these features. Eventually, precip should move back in from the south by Saturday, but big difference in the upper level pattern are noted in the global models, with GFS phased with northern stream shortwave and southern stream. Canadian and ECMWF look much different (lack of phasing between the two), so plenty of time to iron out these details as the event draws near.

Temps fall below normal after cold fropa into Thursday night, then moderate late in the week.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. VFR. High pressure continues to slide offshore through tonight. A weak wave of low pressure approaches from the south tonight, moving over the region on Monday.

S winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20 kt for city/coastal terminals through this afternoon. Sustained winds and gusts may be slightly higher for south coastal terminals, while gusts may be more intermittent across interior. Gusts are lost for most terminals for the evening push, but again may persist for south coastal terminals (JFK, ISP, GON). Light S winds tonight, becoming light and variable for Monday morning push, then increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt along the coast in the afternoon. Peak winds of 20-25kG35-40 kt possible for south coastal terminals Monday aft/eve. LLWS possible with SSW winds of 40-50 kt at 2kft.

MVFR/IFR conditions develop late tonight into Monday morning push as rain moves in ahead of an approaching frontal wave from the south. Generally IFR on Monday, with rain that may be moderate to heavy at times Monday into Monday evening. Slight chance thunder Monday afternoon/early evening at KISP and KGON.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Monday Afternoon into Monday Night. Generally IFR on Monday, with rain that may be moderate to heavy at times Monday through Monday evening. Slight chance thunder Monday afternoon/early evening at KISP and KGON. S winds increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt along the coast in the afternoon. Peak winds of 20-25kt G 35-40 kt possible for south coastal terminals Monday aft/eve. LLWS possible with SSW winds of 40-50 kt at 2kft. Tuesday. MVFR or lower conds in showers. SW gusts around 20 kt possible. Winds shift to the NW with gusts 25-30kt with a cold frontal passage in the late afternoon/evening. Tuesday Night into Wednesday. MVFR or lower with rain in the evening, likely becoming IFR or lower transitioning to sleet then snow late Tuesday Night, continuing into Wednesday morning push. W-NW G20-25kt possible. Moderate potential for light snow accumulations. Snow comes to an end by Wednesday afternoon with conditions improving to VFR. Thursday into Friday. VFR.

MARINE. High pressure continues moving east of the waters this afternoon. An approaching frontal system tonight will impact area through mid week. This will result in a strengthening southerly flow today through Monday night.

Marginal SCA conditions are forecast on the ocean waters tonight with a short period where the winds fall off during the early morning to daybreak timeframe. Winds then quickly ramp back up by late Monday morning with the potential for gale gusts on the ocean waters by afternoon and SCA conditions elsewhere. These conditions will persist into Monday night. Thus, a gale watch has been issued for the ocean waters Monday afternoon and night. A SCA will likely be issued for the remaining waters later today. However, there is some uncertainty with the magnitude of the winds during this time due to a strengthening inversion across the waters, which will limit the high wind potential. Seas on the ocean are forecast to build 7 to 12 ft.

Winds and seas will then diminish as a cold front approaches Tuesday, but remain above 5 ft on the ocean through at least Tuesday night. The front passes through the area Tuesday night with marginal SCA conditions possible Wednesday into Thursday morning in a W-NW flow.

There is the potential for another storm system to impact the waters at the end of the week.

HYDROLOGY. A significant long duration rainfall event is expected from late Sunday night into Wed. Event total liquid equivalent precip likely to range from 1.5-2.0 inches, locally 2-3 inches across eastern Long Island and southern CT. Heaviest rain should occur be Monday afternoon/eve. The long duration of the event should preclude widespread flooding. Nuisance/poor drainage flooding is the most likely outcome.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for ANZ350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . Goodman/PW NEAR TERM . Goodman/DS SHORT TERM . Goodman LONG TERM . Goodman/PW AVIATION . NV MARINE . DW HYDROLOGY . Goodman/PW EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi56 min 37°F 44°F1032.5 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 22 mi44 min Calm G 1 36°F 21°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 25 mi56 min SSW 7 G 9.9 35°F 48°F1032.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 33 mi56 min S 7 G 8.9 33°F 41°F1031.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi62 min SSW 7 G 11 35°F 44°F1031.5 hPa
44069 46 mi44 min S 7.8 G 9.7 36°F 37°F25°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi21 minS 410.00 miFair36°F21°F55%1032.5 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY23 mi20 minSSW 6 mi39°F27°F62%1032.2 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi19 minS 510.00 miFair34°F17°F51%1031.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NW8NW3CalmCalmCalmN5N7N4N4N5N5N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmS6SW5S4
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Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Long Island Sound, New York
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Greenport
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:09 AM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:06 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:30 AM EST     2.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:49 PM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:51 PM EST     2.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.30.40.91.41.92.32.62.62.31.91.40.80.40.20.40.91.41.822.11.91.61.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:27 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:06 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:13 AM EST     1.33 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:18 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:25 AM EST     -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:09 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:38 PM EST     1.09 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:25 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:36 PM EST     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.30.41.11.31.310.2-0.5-1.1-1.4-1.4-1.1-0.7-0.10.611.10.90.3-0.4-1-1.4-1.4-1.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.