Shelter Island, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shelter Island, NY


December 8, 2023 1:13 PM EST (18:13 UTC)
Sunrise 7:01AM   Sunset 4:22PM   Moonrise  3:21AM   Moonset 2:38PM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 946 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Today..N winds around 5 kt, becoming S this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ300 946 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure will slowly move offshore today through Saturday. A strong cold front approaches on Sunday and passes through Sunday night. High pressure then builds in on Monday and remains in control through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island, NY
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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KOKX 081741 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1241 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will slowly move offshore today through Saturday.
A strong cold front approaches on Sunday and passes through Sunday night. High pressure then builds in on Monday and remains in control through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Temperatures continue to be a bit warmer than previous forecast.
adjusted highs up a bit more. Otherwise, forecast continues to be on track. Highs should top out in the upper 40s to around 50 today.

High pressure will slowly move offshore today. The core of the high pressure stays well north and south of the area. The pressure gradient will remain weak, keeping surface winds quite light, near or less than 5 kts.

The forecast models have not handled well with the cloud cover and have underestimated the amount of cloud coverage.

Increased clouds coverage above most model forecasts as a result and used the lower end of guidance for high temperatures forecast. In this case, the max temperature forecast was taken from a blend of MAV and MET guidance, which was relatively lower than NBM. Still expect a relatively warmer day than the previous, with highs in the low to mid 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
High pressure will continue to slowly move out into the Atlantic tonight. The pressure gradient remains weak and with more ridging and even some negative vorticity advection present in the mid levels, radiational cooling will be more but not totally effective.
Some clouds are expected to linger around tonight but winds are forecast to decrease and become nearly calm along the coast and for inland locations will be calm. So, used a blend of MAV and MET MOS for the forecast low temperatures, which indicated lower temperatures relative to NBM. Late tonight into early Saturday morning, put in patchy fog in locations that will have pretty much calm winds, across the interior. The fog will be possible as well along the coast but wind speeds will be a little higher compared to the interior. The fog could possibly get locally dense across parts of the interior but confidence is low on this occurring.

For Saturday, the mid level ridging trend ends during the day with a negative height trend afternoon into early evening. At the surface, a small drop in the pressure reading is expected as high pressure continues to move out into the Atlantic. This will result in some increase to the pressure gradient, driving a more southerly flow into the area. This will in turn increase the low level warm air advection. Would also expect clouds to increase as well especially in the mid to upper levels well ahead of the trough to the west. For the high temperature forecast, used the NBM 50th percentile. Because of the recent model underestimation of cloud coverage and winds still being light (at or less than 10 kts), wanted to select a lower temperature solution and the NBM 50th percentile was actually slightly cooler than the deterministic NBM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A 500mb trough digs in to our west on Sunday, then lifts during the day Monday with its axis shifting through the forecast area Monday evening. At the surface, a strong cold front approaches us on Sunday and passes through during Sunday night. While it's passing through, an area of low pressure develops along the front in Tennessee or the Middle Appalachians and passes to our north as is further develops and strengthens.

Rain chances ramp up through the day with the entire forecast area likely seeing rain by the end of the afternoon. The rain could be heavy at times mainly during Sunday night as a strong low level jet develops over us and combines with deep synoptic lift aloft and an anomalously moist air mass. Some models continue to show some elevated instability, so with deep lift, will keep in an isolated thunderstorm in the forecast. Rain chances continue into Monday even behind the front as the flow aloft remains cyclonic and we'll be within the right entrance region of an upper jet streak. Should precipitation actually occur Monday morning over the higher elevations well NW of the city, some snowflakes may mix in with showers. 1.5-2.5" of rainfall is expected Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. The heaviest rainfall is most likely to occur during Sunday night. Minor urban/small stream flooding will be possible, mainly Sunday night - confidence in this is moderate. Cannot completely rule out flash flooding either, but this is a lower confidence forecast as chances are low given flash flood guidance and the progressive nature of the storm system.

Regarding winds for this event, 925mb winds continue to be progged to reach 60-80kt over roughly the eastern half of the forecast area Sunday night. Even if a relatively stronger low level inversion were to be in place during the time that the LLJ moves through, about half of that speed could potentially reach the surface. The hourly NBM probabilities for wind gusts greater than 54 mph are at about a 50-80% chance of occurring for the immediate coastlines on Long Island and southeast Connecticut. These chances are less than 20% for Manhattan, NE NJ, the lower Hudson Valley and SW CT. Parts of Queens and Brooklyn are around 20-30% chance of this occurring. Peak wind gusts may reach wind advisory criteria for some areas along the coast east of Manhattan given the setup and potential help from heavy downpours. The current forecast has gusts 40-45mph for coastal areas and 30-40mph for most inland areas during Sunday night. I used the NBM 10th percentile for winds in this forecast. The NBM deterministic seemed too high, but given the last few runs of most available guidance, they all show gusts at or above this current forecast (with the exception of the GDPS and RDPS). When this event falls into the timeframe of some CAMs this will really help in determining how much of the LLJ will mix down to the surface.

High pressure then builds in through the rest of Monday and remains in control through Thursday with an extended period of dry weather and highs generally in the 40s.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure will slowly move offshore through Saturday.

Mainly VFR conditions are forecast. The only exception is the potential for MVFR to IFR fog late tonight into early Saturday morning, mainly for KSWF and KHPN.

Light flow is forecast through the TAF period with wind speeds below 10 kt. The wind direction will continue becoming S-SE this afternoon and then mainly variable tonight. Wind gradually become SE again late Saturday morning into the afternoon.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind direction may be variable at times this afternoon.

MVFR visibilities possible early Saturday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Afternoon-Night: VFR.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in developing showers from west to east through the day. S winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt in the afternoon.

Sunday Night: IFR in showers. Isolated thunderstorms possible. S winds 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt. A few gusts to 45-50 kt possible. The strongest winds are most likely near the coast. LLWS.

Monday: MVFR or lower early in showers, then VFR. S-SW wind gusts 30- 40 kt eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut early.
Otherwise, W-WNW 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. W gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Below SCA today through Saturday.

Winds and seas should ramp up quickly during Sunday with small craft conditions quickly going to gales in all likelihood by late in the day/early evening. Solid gales are expected across all waters Sunday night, with gales likely lingering into Monday morning for most of the waters. Gales may continue well in the afternoon on the ocean.
Storm Watch conditions are possible on the eastern ocean waters based on the new forecast, but confidence in this remains low at this time. Ocean seas are likely build to 10-15 feet during this time with waves over 5 ft possible across portions of eastern Long Island Sound. SCA conds on the ocean for Tuesday as seas remain elevated.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through Saturday night.

1.50 to 2.50 inches of rain are expected from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. The heaviest rainfall is most likely to occur during Sunday night. Minor urban/small stream flooding will be possible, mainly Sunday night - confidence in this is moderate. Cannot completely rule out flash flooding either, but this is a lower confidence forecast as chances are low given flash flood guidance and the progressive nature of the storm system.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A strong cold front will bring increasing southerly flow late Sunday into Sunday night. The system brings potential for minor coastal flooding with the Monday morning high tide cycle.
However, the strongest southerly flow is most likely to occur between high tide cycles. Winds will quickly shift to the west early Monday morning, which will help keep water levels down during times of high tide.

There remains a large amount of spread in the surge guidance.
The highest chance for minor coastal flooding at this time appears to be for the south shore back bays and over the western Long Island Sound along the Westchester and Fairfield coasts.
If the higher end of the surge guidance and stronger onshore winds linger closer to high tide, then minor coastal flooding would be more widespread, and a localized moderate coastal flooding threat would exist.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi56 min 44°F 47°F30.12
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi44 min SSW 7G8 46°F
NLHC3 24 mi56 min 45°F 44°F30.15
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi56 min SSW 8G8.9 42°F 47°F30.18
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi56 min SSE 5.1G8 42°F 51°F30.12
44069 48 mi44 min 42°F 41°F40°F

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Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMTP MONTAUK,NY 21 sm19 mincalm--48°F36°F62%30.19
KFOK FRANCIS S GABRESKI,NY 23 sm20 minS 0610 smClear46°F37°F71%30.19
KGON GROTONNEW LONDON,CT 23 sm17 minS 0710 smClear46°F36°F66%30.17
KSNC CHESTER,CT 24 sm18 minS 0510 smClear46°F32°F57%30.16

Wind History from MTP
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Greenport, Long Island Sound, New York
   
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Greenport
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Fri -- 12:24 AM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:21 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:46 AM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:07 PM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:38 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:05 PM EST     2.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Greenport, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet
12
am
0.4
1
am
0.4
2
am
0.8
3
am
1.3
4
am
1.8
5
am
2.2
6
am
2.5
7
am
2.5
8
am
2.3
9
am
2
10
am
1.5
11
am
1.1
12
pm
0.6
1
pm
0.3
2
pm
0.5
3
pm
0.8
4
pm
1.3
5
pm
1.6
6
pm
1.9
7
pm
2
8
pm
1.9
9
pm
1.6
10
pm
1.3
11
pm
0.9



Tide / Current for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
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Fri -- 02:18 AM EST     1.22 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:21 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:33 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:43 AM EST     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:23 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:39 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:44 PM EST     0.97 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:39 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:52 PM EST     -1.36 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots
12
am
0.2
1
am
0.9
2
am
1.2
3
am
1.2
4
am
1
5
am
0.4
6
am
-0.3
7
am
-0.9
8
am
-1.2
9
am
-1.3
10
am
-1.1
11
am
-0.7
12
pm
-0.3
1
pm
0.4
2
pm
0.9
3
pm
1
4
pm
0.8
5
pm
0.4
6
pm
-0.2
7
pm
-0.8
8
pm
-1.2
9
pm
-1.4
10
pm
-1.1
11
pm
-0.7




Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Upton, NY,



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