Monday, July26, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:14PM Monday July 26, 2021 8:12 PM EDT (00:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:15PMMoonset 8:14AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 549 Pm Edt Mon Jul 26 2021
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 549 Pm Edt Mon Jul 26 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds in from the west across the waters through tonight. High pressure will weaken on Tuesday and then a cold front will approach from the north. This cold front moves across the waters Tuesday night. Weak high pressure builds in Wednesday. A cold front approaches on Thursday and passes through Thursday night into Friday. High pressure then builds in through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island, NY
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location: 41.07, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 262153 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 553 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds in from the west through tonight. High pressure will weaken Tuesday with a cold front from the north then approaching the region. The cold front moves across Tuesday night. Weak high pressure builds in Wednesday. A cold front approaches on Thursday and passes through Thursday night into Friday. High pressure then builds in through Saturday before another frontal system approaches late on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Mostly clear skies with some residual haze potentially causing a reduction in visibility for northern areas through the early evening. This updates reflects the current observations and trends, mainly for temperature, through this evening.

Otherwise, with high pressure at the surface building in from the west, expecting mostly clear sky conditions tonight. Along with decreasing winds, radiational cooling will be optimized. Mid and upper level westerly flow will keep a dry airmass in place. Dewpoints that have lowered well into 60s and even upper 50s previously during the day will stay in the low to mid 60s for tonight. A MAV/MET MOS blend was used for low temperatures to convey a more vast range of temperatures between the urban heat island and outlying rural sections. Lows range from the upper 50s to near 60 for outlying rural sections to low to mid 70s within NYC.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. High pressure at the surface will gradually weaken on Tuesday. A cold front will approach from the north and move across Tuesday night. Drier air at the surface will still be present with lowering dewpoints going into the morning and early afternoon. Forecast 850mb temperatures are expected to reach 17 to 18 degrees C. Highs were a blend of NBM and MOS consensus in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dewpoints staying mostly in the lower 60s will keep heat indices close to actual temperatures.

Showers and thunderstorms will become probable for interior areas late in the afternoon, but across the whole region Tuesday night as the cold front moves closer to the region. Thunder chances highest for the first half of the night between 8PM Tuesday and 2AM Wednesday. Instability will be limited and will decrease more late at night so after 2AM, thunder chances become slight with a continued chance of showers.

Vertical forcing increases most Tuesday night with positive vorticity advection in the mid levels. Bulk shear will be increasing 0-6km to 30-40 kt so some thunderstorms could be strong with gusty winds. Highest instability at the surface will be in the southern half of the region with around 1000 to 1500 J/kg of CAPE and less to the north. Most of the upper level energy seems to be focused to the north of the region where the height falls will be more and omega will be higher. There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern Connecticut.

Lows Tuesday night were taken from a consensus of all guidance with temperatures ranging from the lower 60s across the interior to upper 60s and lower 70s along and near the coast as well as NYC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The long term continues to be dominated by a large mid-level trough that is reinforced by shortwaves in the flow through the weekend and into next week.

Weak high pressure over the area on Wednesday may result in a few showers or thunderstorms though coverage should be rather isolated if they occur at all. The weak high shifts offshore into Wednesday night providing for an increasing southerly flow advecting moisture back into the area. An intensifying low pressure system to the north tightens the pressure gradient over the area ahead of the approaching cold front. Showers become likely much of the day Thursday with an isolated thunderstorm possible late in the day. Though there is some uncertainty in the timing of the frontal passage, showers looks to continue into Thursday night and early Friday.

A brisk NW flow behind the front on Friday gradually weakens into Saturday as a high pressure tries to build in from the southwest, but Friday and Saturday will be mostly, if not entirely, dry. High pressure quickly gets pushed offshore by Sunday as another frontal system brings another cold front into the area for late on Sunday. The strongest forcing appears to be toward the north of the area, but the GFS brings in a surge of moisture just ahead of the front resulting a significant difference in precipitation and rainfall amounts. Capped the PoPs at a chance for now. Thereafter, models diverge in the pattern but look to show a generally dry Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Weak high pressure remains over the region into Tuesday. A cold front approaches from the north late in the afternoon.

VFR, except MVFR in haze at KSWF through the afternoon.

Light NW to N winds outside of sea breezes. Winds become light and variable across the region this evening, and then SW less than 10 kt Tuesday morning.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

There is a chance that a sea breeze will move through KLGA late this afternoon, 22Z or later. However, looking more likely that winds will remain NW around 10kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Tuesday afternoon. VFR. Slight chance of late day TSTM at KSWF. Sea breezes likely. Tuesday night. Chance of brief MVFR/local IFR cond with any showers/isolated tstms. Wednesday and Wednesday night. VFR. Slight chance of a shower or tstm. Thursday and Thursday night. Chance of MVFR, local IFR, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Friday-Saturday. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. A weak pressure gradient will be in place across the waters. Ocean seas have subsided to below 5 ft. SCA was cancelled. Conditions on all waters are expected to remain below SCA thresholds through Tuesday night with a weak pressure gradient remaining in place.

Winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria Wednesday through Wednesday night.

A strengthening southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will likely bring SCA conditions to the ocean waters late Thursday into Thursday night. Waves will slowly subside on Friday in a post-frontal NW flow, which may bring marginal SCA gusts during the afternoon. Elsewhere, conditions are forecast to remain below SCA criteria. Conditions drop below SCA conditions by Friday night.

HYDROLOGY. Layer PWATS reach almost 1.7 inches Tuesday night. Aside from the possibility of minor flooding with thunderstorms in low lying and poor drainage areas with locally higher amounts of rainfall Tuesday night, no hydrologic issues are expected through Tuesday night.

Looking ahead, no hydrologic impacts are expected Wednesday through early next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A high risk of rip currents is expected into this evening for the ocean beaches.

A moderate risk of rip current development is forecast for the ocean beaches for Tuesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JM/MW NEAR TERM . JM/MW SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . MW AVIATION . MET MARINE . JM/MW HYDROLOGY . JM/MW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . JC/JM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 18 mi132 min WSW 5.8 G 5.8 80°F 76°F1 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi54 min 78°F 74°F1011.7 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi62 min WSW 8.9 G 8.9 75°F 1011.3 hPa63°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi54 min 82°F 69°F1011.9 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi42 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 74°F 71°F1011.8 hPa72°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi54 min NW 5.1 G 6 85°F 75°F1012.1 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi54 min N 2.9 G 5.1 86°F 73°F1011 hPa
44069 48 mi42 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 79°F 80°F72°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi18 minN 0 mi77°F71°F82%1011.9 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi19 minSSW 48.00 miFair77°F68°F74%1012.3 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi16 minN 07.00 miFair74°F68°F82%1011 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi17 minN 04.00 miFair with Haze77°F68°F74%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW55SW55633CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W5W433Calm344CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalm3S344554S5S8S8S9
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN4CalmN3NE4NE43543444334Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Shelter Island Sound, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
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Mon -- 02:40 AM EDT     -1.92 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:12 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:45 AM EDT     1.44 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:44 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:55 PM EDT     -1.70 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:00 PM EDT     1.66 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-1.3-1.8-1.9-1.6-1-0.20.81.31.41.20.6-0.2-1-1.5-1.7-1.4-0.9-0.20.71.51.71.51.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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