Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:22PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 12:03 AM EST (05:03 UTC) Moonrise 5:10PMMoonset 7:16AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 942 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt late. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog late this evening. Rain.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Snow in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
ANZ300 942 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves through the region tonight. Arctic high pressure then builds across the region, punctuated only briefly by a secondary cold front that will pass to the north Wednesday night. The high shifts offshore Thursday night with low pressure approaching from the south Friday. This low passes through on Saturday with low pressure building back in on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island, NY
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location: 41.07, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 110254 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 954 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front moves through the region tonight. Arctic high pressure then builds across the region, punctuated only briefly by a secondary cold front that will pass to the north Wednesday night. The high shifts offshore Thursday night with low pressure approaching from the south Friday. This low passes through on Saturday with low pressure building back in on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. The forecast largely remains on track so far tonight with widespread rain showers continuing across the region. Expect rain to begin mixing with and then changing to snow across Orange County towards midnight, with the transition zone sinking southward through the overnight hours. Made minor adjustments to temperatures and dew points through the overnight hours, which results in a corresponding 1-2 hour delay in the onset of frozen precipitation across much of the CWA.

Moisture advection is ongoing in broader southwest flow aloft, which combined with subtle vorticity maximums ahead of the parent upper trough will lead to a continuation of precipitation through the night for the area. Main concern into the night will be when the transition to rain/snow and then snow will occur, and how much snow accumulates. At the moment, the cold front is expected to move east of the area by midnight. Guidance has trended towards slower cold advection in its wake, meaning that temperatures will be slower to lower to near freezing and the subsequent transition in precipitation type will be delayed. Regardless, expect a period of snowfall to develop overnight, with impacts to the morning commute before snow comes to an end from west to east by late morning as drier air moves into the area. Although the snow will be wet, reducing accumulations, there is a period where flow briefly strengthens between the retreating high and approaching trough, enhancing forcing for ascent and leading to the potential for at least brief banding. Therefore, snow totals look to be on track, with around 1-2 inches across the lower Hudson Valley, northeastern New Jersey and NYC, and 2-3 elsewhere. Some locally higher amounts may be possible across portions of southern Connecticut.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Snow gradually comes to an end from west to east by late morning. Given the recent moisture and a strengthening subsidence inversion, some cloud cover may linger across the area through the afternoon, before dry advection gradually leads to its dissipation. Expect temperatures to be below normal in the mid to upper 30s, some 20 degrees colder than Tuesday.

Arctic high pressure then strengthens and builds to the west while a secondary cold front passes to the north Wednesday night. As a result, winds and the subsequent cold advection will strengthen into the overnight, with temperatures falling into the teens to mid 20s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure ridge shifts closer to the region on Thursday, moves through by late in the day, and then offshore through Friday. Dry weather this period with high temperatures below normal Thursday. Temperatures level out or even rise slightly Thursday night with an increase in clouds and light onshore flow. Some models show low PCPN chances by the end of the morning rush on Friday from around the city to points north and west. Should some PCPN sneak in by this time, there could be some light freezing rain primarily well north and west of the city during the first half of Friday morning. Mid levels are forecast to be dry, so ice nucleation/snow growth does not appear to be likely. Rain chances then increase some more through the rest of the forecast area Friday afternoon with temperatures moderating to near 50 by the end of the day along the coast, and 40s for most other locations.

Low pressure to the south moves closer Friday night is progged to pass over or nearby the forecast area Saturday morning. Rain is expected Friday night and Saturday and could be briefly heavy at times, but primarily moderate in intensity.

High pressure begins to build back in during Saturday night with still a chance of rain showers primarily northwest of the city, and maybe even some snow mixing in over parts of Orange County. Sunday should be dry, and the high pressure system's ridge passing through should keep us dry through Monday. Another low pressure system then approaches from the Ohio Valley Monday night with increasing chances of rain or mixed PCPN into Tuesday.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A cold front will move across the area tonight. High pressure builds into the region on Wednesday.

Generally VFR conditions to start the TAF period will quickly give way to MVFR and eventually IFR as steadier precipitation moves back into the region this evening. While precipitation initially starts as rain, it will change to a rain/snow mix and eventually to all snow from NW to SE. This changeover is expected to occur between 03-06Z for the Lower Hudson Valley terminals, 05-08Z for the Connecticut terminals, and 06-09Z for the NYC and Long Island terminals. Snow then continues into Wednesday morning, ending from NW to SE between 11-16Z. A brief period of moderate to locally heavy snowfall is possible in the morning if any banding sets up. Runway accumulations will generally range from 1-2 inches, with slightly higher accumulations possible for some Long Island and southeast Connecticut terminals. The timing of changes in precipitation type and the start/end time of snow could be off by 1-2 hours.

Conditions improve to VFR Wednesday afternoon once the snow ends.

Winds will continue to shift to the NW tonight at 10-12 kt. A few gusts to 25-30 kt are possible immediately ahead of the front, but expect any gustiness to be short-lived. Winds then diminish to 5-10 kt by Wednesday morning before shifting back to the W and increasing in speed towards the end of the TAF period. A few gusts to 20-25 kt are possible late Wednesday afternoon, primarily at the city terminals.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Wednesday night. VFR. Gusty WNW winds possible. Thursday. VFR Friday and Friday night. VFR on Friday, then MVFR possible in developing rain Friday night. Saturday. IFR in rain. LLWS possible. Sunday. Becoming VFR.

MARINE. A cold front moves across the waters tonight. Arctic high pressure then builds across the region, punctuated only briefly by a secondary cold front that will pass to the north Wednesday night. The secondary cold front may allow winds to surge to above SCA levels, with a few gusts close to gale-force possible on the ocean waters Wednesday night. Otherwise, winds gusts will generally remain below 25 kt into the mid week. Seas remain elevated at this time, but will very slowly subside into Wednesday with a brief lull in winds, before building again Wednesday night following the secondary frontal passage.

Winds and seas diminish on Thursday as a ridge of high pressure approaches the waters. Sub-advisory conditions expected by Thursday afternoon and lasting through Friday afternoon as the ridge shifts through and moves offshore. Winds and seas then increase Friday night ahead of low pressure, which is expected to pass through or nearby during Saturday morning. SCA conds are probable on the ocean, and possible on the other waters depending on the exact track of the storm. Winds and seas remain elevated on Sunday behind the storm with the potential of gale force gusts at least on the ocean.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic issues are expected with rain through early this evening. The rain mixes with and changes to snow early Wednesday morning. Total liquid equivalent amounts from this morning through Wednesday morning are 0.25 to 0.75 inches.

1-2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts are anticipated from late Friday/Friday night through Saturday. Minor nuisance flooding will be possible with this event.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There will be a chance of coastal flooding with the high tide cycle during Saturday morning. This will be due to onshore winds with an approaching storm combined with relatively high astronomical tides due to a nearly full moon. Minor coastal flooding will be possible primarily along the south shore back bays of Long Island, where even moderate coastal flooding is a possibility at least along the Nassau County bays. Minor flooding will also be possible along NY Harbor and parts of Western Long Island Sound. Confidence is not high at this point as the event is still a few days away, and shifts in storm's track and/or timing would change the flooding potential.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ005>012. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ070>075-078>081-176>179. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Wednesday for NJZ006-104-106-108. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355.

SYNOPSIS . JC/MD NEAR TERM . FEB/JC/MD SHORT TERM . MD LONG TERM . JC AVIATION . FEB MARINE . JC/MD HYDROLOGY . JC/MD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi51 min 46°F 47°F1017.2 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi51 min NNW 4.1 G 7 44°F 45°F1017 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi45 min WNW 6 G 7 44°F 42°F1016.9 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi57 min WNW 4.1 G 8 44°F 44°F1017 hPa
44069 48 mi33 min WNW 12 G 14 44°F 41°F38°F

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi69 minNW 6 mi47°F43°F86%1017.2 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi70 minWNW 13 G 1810.00 miLight Rain43°F39°F89%1018.2 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi67 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast44°F41°F89%1016.9 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi68 minNNW 55.00 miLight Rain43°F41°F93%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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2 days ago--N5--3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW56S6SW7SW7S4S7SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Shelter Island Sound, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:14 AM EST     1.72 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:16 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:28 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:45 AM EST     -1.73 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:26 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:40 PM EST     1.29 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:38 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:53 PM EST     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.3-0.9-0.40.41.31.71.61.20.4-0.5-1.2-1.6-1.7-1.4-1-0.40.51.21.310.5-0.3-1-1.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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