Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 6:01PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 9:24 AM EDT (13:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:11AMMoonset 3:10PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 720 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Slight chance of light rain or drizzle late this morning and early afternoon. Chance of rain or slight chance of drizzle late.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Rain.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 720 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A frontal system approaches today and passes across the waters tonight. High pressure follows Wednesday and Thursday. Weak low pressure then approaches on Friday and passes through Friday night. High pressure returns for Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island, NY
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location: 41.07, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 221130
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
730 am edt Tue oct 22 2019

Synopsis
A frontal system approaches today and passes across the region
tonight. High pressure follows Wednesday and Thursday. Weak low
pressure then approaches on Friday and passes through Friday
night. High pressure returns for most of the weekend with a
weakening system approaching by Sunday night into Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The forecast is mostly on track with only some of the hourly
forecast elements adjusted to reflect the latest trends.

An occluded and vertically stacked low pressure system over the
upper midwest will lift into ontario today. A frontal system
associated with the low will slowly approach from the west through
the day. High pressure over the canadian maritimes also ridges down
the new england coast ahead of the front.

Weak low level warm advection takes place this morning and afternoon
as the upper trough associated with the low approach. Saturation
is likely between 1 kft and 5 kft, but the middle levels remain
dry. No significant rain is anticipated during the morning and
afternoon due to the middle level dry air and surface ridging
from high pressure to our north. The low level moisture and warm
advection may be enough to produce spotty light rain or drizzle
this morning and early afternoon. Pops will increase a bit late
in the day as the front nears, but much of the widespread rain
should holds off until after 6pm.

High temperatures today should end up near to slightly below normal
in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
The front will move across the tri-state tonight. A weak wave of low
pressure may develop along the front as shortwave energy rounds the
base of the upper trough. Strengthening low level s-sw winds ahead
of the front are also expected. These ingredients support a band of
rain tonight. The steadiest rain is forecast to occur from around
00z to about 06z for much of the area. The rain will begin to taper
off from west to east after 06z, ending across eastern long island
and southeast connecticut around daybreak Wednesday. Rainfall
amounts range from 0.50 to 0.75 inches, highest north and west of
nyc. Soundings indicate little to no instability, so thunder has
been left out of the forecast.

The front quickly moves offshore by daybreak Wednesday. High
pressure will build to our south and west through the day. The
atmosphere dries out quickly and mostly sunny skies are anticipated.

Temperatures should be able to warm a few degrees above normal in
the lower and middle 60s for highs.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
High pressure builds in Wednesday night with its ridge axis shifting
through on Thursday before it weakens offshore into Thursday night.

A mostly clear sky will prevail through the period with temperatures
within a few degrees of normal. Some frost may form Wednesday night
in some of the outlying suburbs with good radiational cooling
conditions.

Sided with wpc ECMWF canadian regarding the weather pattern for
Friday and Saturday. Operational GFS differs, but GEFS mean surface
progs appear to give better support to wpc ECMWF canadian. A weak
low and jet streak dynamics bring low chances of showers Friday
afternoon and evening, then high pressure builds in to keep Saturday
dry. A frontal system then approaches on Sunday with overrunning
showers possible ahead of a warm front. Rain chances then increase
Sunday night with the approach of the trailing cold front. The front
weakens as it runs into ridging aloft across the northeast on
Monday, but will include a slight chance of showers for the day.

Aviation 11z Tuesday through Saturday
Low pressure system and a cold front approach today and move
across the region tonight.

MVFR ifr ceilings are overspreading the region this morning and
will remain in place through much of the TAF period. We will
generally see ceiling heights between 1000-1500 ft for much of
the day time, then ifr or lower ceilings develop around 00z.

Expect light rain showers or drizzle to develop during the
afternoon hours, becoming a more steady rain this evening and
into the overnight. In addition, expect some lowered
visibility. There is some uncertainty with the arrival time of
lower conditions.

Ne-n winds averaging around 5-10kt. Winds veer more ene late
afternoon and evening. Southerly winds prior to the frontal
passage will be possible in the late evening. Winds become
northerly behind the cold front between 06-12z Wednesday.

Conditions start to improve after 09z as the front crosses the
region, winds turn to the northwest, and drier air moves into
the area.

Outlook for 12z Wednesday through Saturday
Wednesday-Thursday Vfr. Chc W gusts 20-25kt on weds.

Friday-Saturday Chc MVFR and rain Fri pm into Sat am.

Marine
The small craft advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters
through Wednesday evening. A cold front approaches today and
moves across the waters tonight. Elevated ocean seas will
continue through Wednesday, mainly due to easterly swells.

However, wind gusts on the ocean increase late tonight and could
reach 25 kt into Wednesday morning behind the front which may
help to keep seas elevated as swells diminish Wednesday. Seas
begin to subside Wednesday afternoon along with winds falling
below 25 kt.

Winds subside through Wednesday night with conditions falling below
advisory levels. A high pressure ridge and weak pressure gradient
then bring tranquil conditions across the waters Thursday, which
continues through Friday. Winds then pick up a little on Saturday,
but conditions should remain below advisory levels.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated from 0.50 to 0.75 inches of
rain late today and tonight.

No hydrologic impacts are forecast Wednesday into the weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels during this afternoons high tide along the south
shore back bays will likely fall short of minor coastal flood
benchmarks. No statements have been issued at this time based on
the latest forecast water levels.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off the
air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for anz350-353-
355.

Synopsis... Jc ds
near term... Ds
short term... Ds
long term... Jc
aviation... Bc
marine... Jc ds
hydrology... Jc ds
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi55 min 56°F 59°F1019 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi40 min NE 8 G 11 53°F 1017.2 hPa50°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi55 min N 5.1 G 8.9 50°F 62°F1019.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi55 min NE 8 G 8.9 51°F 59°F1019.3 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi61 min NE 6 G 9.9 52°F 60°F1018.9 hPa
44069 48 mi55 min NE 7.8 G 12 55°F 56°F53°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi31 minENE 7 mi58°F53°F84%1019.6 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi92 minENE 510.00 miOvercast54°F52°F93%1019.1 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi29 minNE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F50°F87%1019.9 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi30 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F48°F88%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalm3Calm33CalmE4E4CalmE44E5E4E5NE7NE8
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2 days agoN7W5W9W7W9W7W75SW3SW4SW3Calm3CalmSW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Shelter Island Sound, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:13 AM EDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:40 AM EDT     -1.25 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:36 PM EDT     1.35 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:09 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:19 PM EDT     -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 11:57 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.7110.70.2-0.4-0.9-1.2-1.2-0.9-0.5-00.71.31.31.10.7-0.1-0.8-1.2-1.5-1.4-1-0.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.