Friday, July3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:20AMSunset 8:28PM Friday July 3, 2020 8:35 AM EDT (12:35 UTC) Moonrise 7:14PMMoonset 3:47AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 615 Am Edt Fri Jul 3 2020
Today..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E this afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..NE winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 615 Am Edt Fri Jul 3 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A backdoor cold front will work across the waters from east to west this afternoon, followed by weak high pressure for the weekend. A weak frontal system approaches early next week and remains in the vicinity through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island, NY
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location: 41.07, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 031152 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 752 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. A backdoor cold front over central New England this morning will work from east to west across the area this afternoon into early this evening, followed by weak high pressure for the weekend. A weak frontal system approaches early next week and remains in the vicinity through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A potentially unsettled afternoon across the region as a backdoor cold front will work across the area, interacting with a moderate to highly unstable airmass. This coupled with highly anomalous PW values (above the percentile) nearing 2 inches raises the concern for heavy rainfall. Additionally, CAPES approaching 2000 J/KG north and west of NYC this afternoon also raises a concern for isolated severe thunderstorms. Weak shear, high CAPE environment would lend to pulse severe with wet microburst potential. Thus, SPC has maintained a marginal risk for the western half of the forecast area with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts (5 percent).

The global models support the axis of heaviest rainfall being across south central CT, with some westward progression into the Lower Hudson Valley. Closer to the coast, a somewhat more stable airmass with onshore flow developing this afternoon, lends toward lower amounts. Even some of the CAMs are supporting this solution. However, based on the axis of greatest instability and the progression of the cold front, it would seems to make sense for this axis to work into the Lower Hudson Valley and NE NJ. The 00Z NSSL WRF fits this scenario best with its evolution of the convection. Much of the area should see a quarter to half inch of rainfall, with amounts up to an inch inland with localized higher amounts. HREF members indicate a 45 percent chance of rainfall rates of 2 inches an hour. This has resulted in the whole area being placed under a marginal risk (5 to 10 percent) for excessive rainfall with a smaller area under a slight risk (10 to 20 percent), which includes the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and SW CT.

Showers and thunderstorms will taper off from west to east late this afternoon (eastern sections) and far western sections this evening. Post-frontal clouds will linger through the overnight.

Highs today will get well into the 80s with even some lower 90s around the NYC metro. The coolest locations will be across SE CT and eastern LI due to the cold front working across these areas by late morning/early afternoon.

There is a borderline moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches today due to a continued, but diminishing SE swell.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Expect a mainly dry 4th of July with a considerably cooler airmass in place with an easterly flow due to high pressure along the New England coast. Any post-frontal clouds in the morning will scatter out by afternoon. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, which is close to normal.

High temperatures Sunday will moderate slightly. A dry airmass in place and a capping inversion should keep a lid on any convection.

There is low rip current risk at the Atlantic Ocean beaches on Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Another back door cold front approaches from the north Sunday night. There is uncertainty as to whether it actually will push south of the area. Regardless, the frontal boundary become stationary and remain in the vicinity through the middle of next week. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms starting Monday and continuing through next Thursday. This period will be characterized by typical summertime diurnal showers and thunderstorms as the frontal boundary appears to be weak with very Little forcing. Chances for precipitation are greatest during the day and lessen at night. In fact, Tuesday night may be dry for the entire forecast area as upper level ridging moves over the region and may provide enough subsidence to overcome the weak lift from the frontal boundary. However, a passing shower or thunderstorm could not be ruled out a this point during those time frames. Best chances for precipitation will occur away from the coast where the more unstable air will reside.

With ridging moving into the area and high pressure over the northern Atlantic at the surface, a warm and humid air mass will set up for at least Tuesday and Wednesday and possibly Thursday, setting up the first potential heat wave of the season. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s during this time frame, with the warmest readings expected across the New York City metro area and northeast New Jersey. Dew points will rise into the upper 60s to around 70 (and possibly even lower to middle 70s). This would translate to heat index values in the middle to upper 90s range, leading to possible Heat Advisories being issued. Wednesday and Thursday seem like the more likely days, with Tuesday possibly seeing more isolated heat index values of 95 to 99.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Weakening low along the New England coast drifts south this morning. A backdoor cold front will pass through the area late this afternoon into the evening.

Generally VFR through the first half of the forecast. MVFR conditions are probable in the late afternoon as there is a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms into the early evening. MVFR ceilings develop early evening initially east of the NYC terminals. MVFR visibilities will be likely beneath these showers and thunderstorms.

Winds will be NW to N less than 10 kt early this morning. After day break towards mid morning winds become more northerly, and then NE to E less than 10 kt this afternoon. Can't rule out stronger gusts possible within rain showers and storms.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of late afternoon thunderstorms may need to be adjusted. Variable wind gusts in both direction and strength will be possible beneath thunderstorms.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of late afternoon thunderstorms may need to be adjusted. Variable wind gusts in both direction and strength will be possible beneath thunderstorms.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of late afternoon thunderstorms may need to be adjusted. Variable wind gusts in both direction and strength will be possible beneath thunderstorms.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of late afternoon thunderstorms may need to be adjusted. Variable wind gusts in both direction and strength will be possible beneath thunderstorms.

KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of late afternoon thunderstorms may need to be adjusted. Variable wind gusts in both direction and strength will be possible beneath thunderstorms.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of late afternoon thunderstorms may need to be adjusted. Variable wind gusts in both direction and strength will be possible beneath thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Sat. Mainly VFR. Sun-Mon. Mainly VFR. Aftn/eve shwrs and tstms possible, especially wrn areas. Tuesday. Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Conditions should remain below SCA levels across all waters through the weekend with a weak low pressure system drifting across the eastern ocean waters and high pressure along the New England coast. Winds become northeasterly this afternoon 10-15 kts following a cold frontal passage and may gust up to 20kts for a short period Saturday afternoon across the ocean waters. Waves 3 to 4 feet over the ocean Saturday relax to 3 feet Sunday as winds become more southerly during the day.

HYDROLOGY. Localized flash flooding is possible this afternoon into early this evening. Rainfall amounts will generally be an inch or less, with localized amounts exceeding 2 inches.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. A coastal flood statement has been issued for Lower New York Harbor and the south shore back bays of Queens and Nassau Counties for this evening's high tide cycle.

A SE swell over the last several days in conjunction with increasing astronomical high tides has gradually raised water levels. Recent guidance, in particular, Steven's NYHOPS-E has been several tenths too high the last several high tide cycles. While there is good agreement that the south shore back bays will get into minor tonight, with a diminishing swell and only slightly higher astronomical high tides this evening compared to last, confidence is not sufficient at this time to issue a coastal flood advisory for widespread minor. Thus, the reason for only a statement. This will be further evaluated later today to assess recent performance with the high tide cycle this morning.

The threat for minor coastal flooding will continue through the weekend during the evening high tide cycles.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . DW NEAR TERM . DW SHORT TERM . DW LONG TERM . JP AVIATION . DJ MARINE . DJ HYDROLOGY . DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi48 min 71°F 69°F1009.2 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi48 min N 5.1 G 7 77°F 65°F1008.9 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi26 min NNW 7.8 G 9.7 72°F 71°F1009.1 hPa68°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi48 min Calm G 1.9 76°F 71°F1009.1 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi48 min N 5.1 G 7 77°F 70°F1009.1 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi42 minNNW 5 mi75°F66°F74%1009.4 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi43 minN 610.00 miFair80°F69°F69%1009.9 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi40 minN 810.00 miFair79°F68°F69%1008.9 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi81 minNNW 410.00 miFair75°F68°F78%1009.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW53CalmS65556SW6SW65SW6SW6SW6SW5CalmW3W5W6W5CalmNW3NW4NW5
1 day agoNW4NW4NW53W53S534SW4SW6SW6SW4SW54Calm3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW54
2 days ago3NE5NE5E4343SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Shelter Island Sound, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:56 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:32 AM EDT     1.32 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:10 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:22 AM EDT     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:48 PM EDT     1.89 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.7-1.3-0.80.10.91.31.310.2-0.7-1.3-1.7-1.6-1.2-0.70.21.21.81.91.60.9-0.1-1-1.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.