Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 7:47PM Sunday August 18, 2019 2:31 AM EDT (06:31 UTC) Moonrise 9:36PMMoonset 8:45AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1053 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Overnight..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw late. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms late this evening. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..Light and variable winds, becoming S around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Thu..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1053 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front passes tonight as high pressure remains to the northeast. A wave of low pressure passes south of the area Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak cold front drops into the area Monday night and returns north as a warm front on Tuesday. Another cold front approaches Wednesday and moves through Wednesday night. High pressure then builds in for the remainder of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island, NY
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location: 41.07, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180334
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1134 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
A warm front passes tonight as high pressure remains to the
northeast. A wave of low pressure passes south of the area
Sunday into Monday. Meanwhile, a weak cold front drops into the
area Monday night and returns north as a warm front on Tuesday.

Another cold front approaches Wednesday and moves through
Wednesday night. High pressure then builds in for the remainder
of the week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
Showers and embedded thunderstorms are weakening as the continue
to push SE through the lower hudson valley and southern ct. Have
adjusted pops as a result although a weakening trend will
continue, especially as it interacts with the marine layer
in place at the coast. The outflow from these storms may mix up
the low levels and scour out the low clouds and fog at the
coast. Have included areas of fog in the forecast through the
overnight hours at the coast, but this may not pan out as
originally anticipated since the convection made it further s
and E than expected.

With plenty of clouds tonight and continued light veering
onshore flow, temps will not vary much, upper 60s to lower mid
70s.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
The area will remain between two upper shortwaves, one passing
to the nw, and another passing just south. A sfc low passes to
the south. Stratus will once again lift dissipate as the morning
progresses, and high humidity along with increasing
temperatures into the 80s will result in a hot day. Heat indices
will likely approach and in some cases exceed 90 degrees
Sunday.

Few to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once
again in this persistent pattern airmass.

Lows at night will remain in the 70s.

There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at
atlantic ocean beaches Sunday.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Hot, humid and somewhat unsettled weather will continue for the
first half of next week. Nwp is in good agreement with the overall
upper pattern across north america during the long term period, with
bermuda high pressure remaining in place resulting in gradually
rising heights across the northeast early next week.

Guidance has trended slightly lower with highs on Mon and as a
result confidence in a widespread 95-99 degree heat index
doesn't look as widespread as it did yesterday. Currently think
ne nj has the greatest potential to warrant a heat advisory
sun Mon but will let the mid shift have a look at one last round
of data. Pcpn associated with low pres passing well south of
long island on Monday appears to remain offshore, although a
trough of low pres developing north and west of nyc could
trigger isold showers tstms during the aftn eve with this threat
continuing through the overnight hours as a weak cold front
moves into the area. Humid conds then continue through wed,
although more cloud cover and increasing chances for pcpn is
expected to keep temps slightly cooler than Mon with less of a
chance of heat advsy criteria being met.

Heights will fall on Wed as the closed low moves into eastern
canada. Showers tstms develop as a result of a pre-frontal
trough Wed aftn and continue into Wed night as a stronger cold
front moves through. A dry and more comfortable airmass builds
in thereafter as high pres builds from the great lakes into the
weekend. Temps are expected to be near to slightly below normal
levels during this time.

Aviation 03z Sunday through Thursday
High pressure weakens to the east of the region, while a warm
front approaches from the southwest on Sunday.

A dissipating line of showers and thunderstorms will impact the
terminals through around 05z.

MVFR ifr conditions are forecast through the overnight. Some
locations may see periods ofVFR overnight as drier air works
in just above the moist marine layer.VFR returns to all
terminals on Sunday.

Winds will veer to a more southerly direction overnight at less
than 5 kt, then increase to around 10 kt by Sunday afternoon.

There is a chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday, with the best chance north and west of
the nyc terminals.

Outlook for 00z Monday through Thursday
Sunday night Chance of evening showers and thunderstorms.

Best chance north and west of the nyc terminals.

Monday MainlyVFR. Slight chance shower or thunderstorm.

Tuesday-Thursday MainlyVFR. Chance showers or thunderstorms.

Marine
Have issued an mws through midnight for fog on the
waters. Will need to reevaluate whether to continue thereafter
based on conditions with outflow boundaries from convection possibly
scouring it out. Otherwise, easterly flow will veer more to the
south by Sunday as a warm front lifts, 10 kt or less. Seas
remain under 5 ft on the ocean and 1 ft or less across the non
ocean waters.

Sub advsy conds are expected to prevail through the period,
outside of tstms. Seas on the ocean could approach 5 ft wed
night into thu, although feel that guidance was overdoing the
seas on SW flow so have knocked them down a foot for now.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected at this time through the forecast
period.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi49 min 69°F 68°F1016.2 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi31 min SW 4.1 G 4.1 71°F 996.5 hPa70°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi49 min SW 2.9 G 6 72°F 70°F1015.5 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi31 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 73°F 1017 hPa73°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi49 min NE 1.9 G 4.1 72°F 75°F1015.4 hPa
44069 48 mi61 min E 3.9 G 5.8 75°F 79°F74°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi97 minN 0 mi70°F69°F97%1016.5 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi98 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist71°F71°F100%1017 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi95 minN 00.75 miFog/Mist74°F71°F91%1016 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi76 minS 410.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F71°F100%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE3--E4NE5E5--E6E8E5E4NE3NE5NE5NE73E4NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day ago----NE3CalmNE4--4NE55NE5E564--344Calm--Calm--------
2 days agoCalmCalmNE3NE5NE6NE7E6NE7NE8NE8NE7NE8E855----E45E3E3--E3--

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Shelter Island Sound, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:57 AM EDT     -1.63 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:51 AM EDT     1.28 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:13 PM EDT     -1.48 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:39 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:08 PM EDT     1.35 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-1-1.4-1.6-1.4-0.9-0.40.41.11.31.10.80-0.7-1.2-1.5-1.3-0.9-0.40.311.31.20.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.