Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shelter Island, NY

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Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:22PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 4:19 AM EDT (08:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:06PMMoonset 6:01AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1051 Pm Edt Tue Jul 16 2019
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NE winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Fri..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1051 Pm Edt Tue Jul 16 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves through overnight. Low pressure then develops to the southwest into Wednesday. The low is expected to move over the area Wednesday night, as a cold front approaches from the north in advance of building high pressure over new england. The cold front moves through Thursday, followed by building high pressure that will remain centered over the southeast into the weekend. Another weak cold front moves slowly through the area Saturday night. The front stalls to our south Sunday with a wave of low pressure developing along it.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shelter Island, NY
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location: 41.07, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 170603
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
203 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Synopsis
A warm front moves through and east of the region overnight.

Low pressure then develops to the southwest into Wednesday. The
low is expected to move over the area Wednesday night, as a cold
front approaches from the north in advance of building high
pressure over new england. The cold front moves through
Thursday, followed by building high pressure that will remain
centered over the southeast into the weekend. Another weak cold
front moves slowly through the area Saturday night. The front
stalls to our south Sunday with a wave of low pressure
developing along it possibly impacting the region early next
work week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
A warm front will move through and east of the region
overnight. Low level SW flow will allow for warm and humid
conditions. Lows were slightly adjusted. Overall forecast and
observed dewpoints and temperatures are within a few degrees of
agreement. Pops slightly adjusted downward going into the
overnight but increased them to slight chance late across the
region in response to some increase in instability, especially
across the coast with potentially CAPE getting to a few hundred
j kg overnight and close to 1000 j kg by daybreak Wednesday.

Expecting mainly dry conditions through overnight.

Temperatures are relatively warmer along the coast and with
warm air advection and more moist low level environment,
instability is more across the coast for overnight into daybreak
Wednesday. Therefore did not go totally dry and kept the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms for the region for late
tonight into early Wednesday.

A weak convectively induced vorticity maximum upstream is
expected to pass through overnight, which combined with the
warm front may lead to isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Timing and placement of any showers and thunderstorms will be
difficult to pinpoint, but with increased moisture a brief heavy
downpour may be possible as well.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Thursday
Heights will fall on Wednesday as an upper trough to the north
phases with a short wave trough containing the remnants of
tropical cyclone barry. Despite an associated increase in cloud
cover, strengthening west-southwest flow will lead to continued
warm advection, with temperatures rising into the 80s to lower
90s. Expect uncomfortable conditions, with a few locales in
northeastern nj and nyc achieving heat indices in the afternoon
around 95 degrees as dew points remain in the low to mid 70s.

The quick increase in temperatures will also allow any remaining
cinh to erode by afternoon, and between a thermal trough
developing across the interior and sea breezes near the coast,
there may be enough forcing for ascent for thunderstorms to
develop at any time.

Most shower and thunderstorm activity will develop by late
afternoon into the evening as the trough nears and a surface low
deepens across the coast. The remnants of barry will bring a
significant increase in deep layer moisture, with forecast pwat
values well in excess of 2.00-2.25". Although weak mid level
lapse rates may limit updraft strength, low level lapse rates
are expected to steepen, with dcape values in the 500-1000 j kg
range, a subtle increase in low level flow, and evaporative
cooling likely supporting downdrafts in storms that do develop.

Additional storms will likely be triggered along the subsequent
outflow boundaries. Expect heavy downpours and potentially
strong to severe wind gusts in any storms that develop.

Storms then develop into a complex or complexes overnight as
flow aloft becomes parallel to the developing surface low.

Training of storms and convective nature may lead to an enhanced
threat for localized flooding as well. Refer to the hydrology
section for more information.

Muggy conditions will continue Wednesday night as lows only fall
into the 70s, and dew points remain in the 70s as well.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches for
Wednesday.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Weak low pressure associated with the remnants of barry shifts
through the area on Thursday. Model average suggests that the the
center of this passes over or just to our south. This in turn brings
the wind forecast trend more towards an east to east-northeast
direction. Even if this doesn't pan out, plenty of cloud cover
should prevent temperatures from rising as high as previously
forecast. Won't go with a mav met blend just yet for high temps, but
will trend towards that direction.

Regarding rainfall potential, the general trend will be for chances
lowering as the day progresses with the low drifting east. Pwats in
this airmass will be high at the start of the day - perhaps near 2.5
inches. This, combined with a light steering flow presents at least
a low chance of flash flooding with heavy rainfall. Rain chances
continue to diminish through Thursday night with the low moving
farther out to sea. Dry weather is expected by sunrise.

Heights aloft build on Friday along with surface ridging. Models
show some subsidence with some capping along with relatively low
moisture. Will go with a dry forecast. The subsidence will also have
impacts on high temperatures. Looks like mixing would be limited to
900mb. Highs therefore reaching the mid 90s for the urban corridor
of NE nj, lower 90s for the city and lower hudson valley, and 85-90
for most of LI and ct. All models show a band of 6-12c 850mb
dewpoints shifting through during the late morning to mid-afternoon
hours. This would promote lowering surface dewpoints with mixing of
the boundary layer, however the surface flow will be sw, offsetting
this. Still think surface dewpoints could mix out a little. This
leads to maximum heat indices averaging in the upper 90s to around
100 for all but ct and most of li.

Mixing to 850 mb is more probable on Saturday, and temps at this
level are expected to average around 23c. 850mb dewpoints will be
higher this time, around 14-17c, making it more difficult for
surface dewpoints to lower, but this could be offset by more of a
wsw surface flow. Expecting highs around 100 for NE nj, and some
locations within the city, and 90s elsewhere. Heat index values will
likely reach at least advisory levels everywhere, and a good portion
of the forecast area could potentially reach warning levels. Dry
weather should continue with relatively low rh through the
atmospheric column.

A weak cold front is progged to move through late Saturday
night, but this will do little to send any relief from the heat.

850mb temps progged at 21-22c with a westerly flow could have
temperatures getting to near 100 once again for some areas on
Sunday, but for now will go with highs mostly in the mid to
upper 90s. Some areas could reach heat warning levels once
again, and most areas would probably reach advisory criteria.

A wave of low pressure moves in on Monday, with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms along with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Tuesday looks dry for now with highs a few degrees cooler than on
Monday.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
A warm front moves east of the area early this morning. Weak low
moves into the area late this afternoon into Wednesday night as
a backdoor cold front begins to move into the region toward the
end of the forecast period.

Vfr until late this afternoon. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms will be developing late in the day and into the
evening with MVFR conditions, and local ifr possible.

Widespread MVFR conditions remain Wednesday night with showers
and more isolated thunderstorms. Local ifr is also possible.

Southwest wind overnight 5 to 10 kt, increase to 10 to 15 kt
this morning. Sea breezes likely this afternoon.

Outlook for 06z Thursday through Sunday
Wednesday night-Thursday Showers likely, with low potential
for thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday evening with
MVFR ifr conditions possible.

Friday through Sunday MainlyVFR... An isolated shower or
thunderstorm possible late afternoon evening on each day.

Marine
A relatively weak pressure gradient will be across the forecast
waters through Sunday with winds and seas remaining below sca
levels.

Hydrology
There is the potential for moderate to locally heavy rainfall
Wednesday and Wednesday night, with rainfall then continuing through
Thursday night. Urban, low lying, and poor drainage flooding will be
most likely Wednesday and Wednesday night, although there is the
potential for localized flash flooding, mainly Wed eve due to
slow moving storms. Rainfall may total 1 to 2 inches with
locally higher amounts.

Climate
The following are records for this weekend:
record highest minimum temperatures for Saturday, july 20:
nyc: 82 in 2015
lga: 83 in 2015
jfk: 79 in 2015
ewr: 80 in 2015
isp: 78 in 2013
bdr: 79 in 2013
record high temperatures for Saturday, july 20:
nyc: 101 in 1980
lga: 101 in 1991
jfk: 96 in 2013 (also occurred in previous years)
ewr: 101 in 1980
isp: 97 in 1991
bdr: 95 in 1001
record highest minimum temperatures for Sunday, july 21:
nyc: 82 in 1980
lga: 83 in 1980
jfk: 79 in 2017
ewr: 81 in 1980
isp: 76 in 1980
bdr: 76 in 1994
record high temperatures for Sunday, july 21:
nyc: 104 in 1977
lga: 100 in 1991
jfk: 99 in 1991
ewr: 103 in 2011
isp: 101 in 1991
bdr: 98 in 1991

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi50 min 74°F 73°F1015 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 21 mi40 min W 9.9 G 11 74°F 1013.2 hPa71°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi50 min WSW 1 G 1.9 76°F 70°F1014.4 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi40 min SW 12 G 14 75°F 74°F1015.7 hPa73°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi56 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 77°F 71°F1014.1 hPa
44069 48 mi65 min WSW 12 G 16 77°F 81°F75°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY21 mi26 minSW 8 mi75°F73°F94%1015.4 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi27 minSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds75°F73°F96%1015.7 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT23 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair75°F69°F82%1014.5 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi25 minVar 410.00 miFair73°F71°F94%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN3Calm3Calm3445S6SW6SW7SW76SW7SW86SW7SW76SW7
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2 days agoSE4S3SW6W6W6W7W7W7W7W7W7W6W8W8W6W6NW6NW4N4NW6N4CalmNW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Greenport, Shelter Island Sound, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
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Wed -- 01:23 AM EDT     -1.70 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:59 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:29 AM EDT     1.24 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:31 PM EDT     -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:34 PM EDT     1.62 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.3-1.7-1.6-1.4-0.900.91.21.20.90.2-0.5-1.1-1.4-1.4-1.1-0.70.111.61.61.40.7-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.