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LEZ146 Avon Point To Willowick Oh-willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh- Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 252 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late Monday night...
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A slight chance of rain showers late. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain and snow showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers with a slight chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 42 degrees, off cleveland 44 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 101514 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1014 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A secondary cold front will move across the Central Great Lakes today, weakening to a surface trough that lingers near Lake Erie through Monday evening. High pressure briefly builds into Ohio from the south Monday afternoon into Monday night. It then is shoved southward as a clipper like storm system sweeps across the Great Lakes Region Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Showers continue across the extreme eastern portion of the forecast area - near Titusville, PA. There should be an hour, if that, of rain left for the forecast during the morning hours.
The secondary cold front/trough will enter this afternoon and bring a band of rain/snow to the region and have kept that timing. Will be evaluating the snow for NW PA for tonight into Monday and the need for a headline.

Previous Discussion...
A brief period of cold advection will occur across the region through the morning in the wake of a cold front that is now (0830Z)
moving toward Central PA. This cold advection is likely assisting with grabbing some moisture off of Lake Erie as it is lifted near and east of the 850 mb boundary. These remaining showers located near and east of a line from Ashtabula to Canton will move east of the CWA shortly after sunrise.

The region then begins to see some weak warm advection this afternoon ahead of an upper level trough that will bring a reinforcing surge of colder air across the region this evening into the overnight. Lift with the upper level trough enters NW OH around sunset with some light rain possible. This rain changes to snow through the evening as it moves northwest to southeast across the region. The higher terrain of NE OH into NW PA will be the first locations to see any snow accumulations.
The lake will definitely enhance the snow as the surface cold front/trough moves onshore. We then see a transition to lake effect snow overnight as -8 to -10 C air flows across the lake by sunrise Monday. This only generates moderate instability over the lake which should keep snowfall rates in check. Current thinking is that we may end up with a couple periods (Sunday night and Monday) where 1-3 inches of snow may accumulate each period. Heaviest in the hills near and east of I-79. So storm total snow may reach 3 to 6 inches over a 30 hour period. We have not hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory at this point in time. However the day shift will need to focus on the time period during the Monday morning commute to see if the heaviest snow could occur around this time. If the heaviest burst of snow does occur around this time we may do an impact based advisory.
Stay tuned.

Further to the west across the western primary snowbelt a quick burst of snow may occur overnight then taper off through Monday morning. Accumulations look to be in the 1 to locally 3 inch range at this point in time. Flurries may drift across much of the region through Monday afternoon but we do not anticipate any accumulations away from the primary snowbelt.

Mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions gradually become partly cloudy from west to east on Monday. Stronger cold advection tonight into Monday should allow for some gusty west to northwest winds which will make it feel much colder than recent days. Highs today and Monday mostly in the 30's. However a few locations across the eastern CWA may see highs in the lower 40's this morning then drop back into the 30's by mid to late morning. Lows tonight range from the mid 20's to lower 30's.
Wind chill temperatures today remain in the 30's but fall to the 20's late this evening, then continue into Monday afternoon.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure at the surface and aloft builds E'ward across our region Monday night. Primarily fair weather is expected. However, lingering lake-effect snow (LES) will shift generally N'ward across the primary snowbelt of NE OH and NW PA during the evening. The LES should exit our CWA and shift offshore around midnight Monday night as the mean low-level flow backs from W'erly to SW'erly.
Simultaneously, the LES is forecast to weaken and then dissipate during the predawn hours of Tuesday morning as a lowering subsidence inversion and low-level warm/dry air advection cause weak lake- induced CAPE to wane. Additional snow accumulations are expected to be one inch or less. Lows should reach the mid 20's to lower 30's around daybreak Tuesday.

Cyclonic W'erly flow aloft, embedded shortwave troughs, and associated surface troughing are expected to impact our region on Tuesday through Tuesday night as high pressure at the surface and aloft exits E'ward. Another cold front should move E'ward across our region on Tuesday. Limited low-level moisture should permit a dry cold front passage. Behind the cold front, light LES showers are possible Tuesday night in the snowbelt of NE OH and NW PA as low- level CAA allows lake surface to 850 mb temp differences to rebound to near 16C over Lake Erie and mean low-level flow veers from WSW'erly to WNW'erly, yet low-level moisture remains meager. The low- level atmospheric column may be warm enough for rain to mix with snow Tuesday evening, especially along and just inland from the lake. Any fresh snowfall should be one inch or less. Fair weather is forecast outside the lake-effect precip. Daytime highs should reach the lower to mid 40's on Tuesday and be followed by overnight lows reaching mainly the mid to upper 20's around daybreak Wednesday.

A shortwave trough is forecast to move generally SE'ward over our CWA on Wednesday as surface troughing lingers. High pressure ridging at the surface and aloft should build from the northern/central Great Plains and western Great Lakes Wednesday night. Primarily fair weather is expected. However, light LES showers are possible in/near the snowbelt as mean low-level flow veers from WNW'erly toward NNW'erly. The LES should dissipate by daybreak Thursday in response to decreasing lake-induced CAPE amidst a lowering subsidence inversion and low-level dry air advection accompanying the ridge.
Any additional snowfall should be less than one inch. Daytime highs should reach the lower to mid 30's in NW PA and the mid to upper 30's in northern OH on Wednesday. Overnight lows should reach the 20's around daybreak Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Fair weather is expected Thursday through Friday night as high pressure at the surface and aloft crests gradually E'ward over our region. Net low-level WAA accompanying the ridge should contribute to afternoon highs reaching the upper 30's to mid 40's on Thursday and primarily the mid 40's to near 50F on Friday. Overnight lows should reach the mid 20's to lower 30's Thursday night and the upper 20's to mid 30's Friday night. A potent shortwave trough and associated surface trough should begin to overspread our region from the north-central U.S. this Saturday. The NBM suggests fair weather will continue this Saturday and our official forecast reflects latest NBM guidance. However, some models, including the 00Z/Sun ECMWF, suggest isolated rain showers may occur via moist isentropic ascent aloft preceding the shortwave trough's axis. Continued low- level WAA should contribute to daytime highs reaching the 40's.

AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
Still a few showers near the OH/PA border in NW PA. Dont think they will persist past 15Z. Otherwise MVFR ceilings are spreading into the region quickly from the west with lingering MVFR across the east. Expect all locations to become MVFR during the morning hours.

An upper level trough moves across the region this evening into the overnight with snow expected for the most part. There could be some rain mixing in at the onset but it will quickly change to snow. MVFR ceilings are a definite when the snow begins.
Downwind of the lake across NE OH into NW PA IFR conditions will occur with some lake enhanced snow.

Winds will be from the west at 8 to 15 knots through the afternoon.
As a reinforcing surge of colder air crosses the region after sunset winds shift to the northwest at 10 to 15 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected overnight Sunday with low ceilings and snow showers. Lake effect snow will produce non-VFR conditions across NE OH and NW PA on Monday.

MARINE
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 7 PM Monday for nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point and until 4 AM Tuesday from Avon Point to Ripley. Also, the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM today to 1 PM EST Monday from The Islands to Vermilion.

A cold front over far-eastern Lake Erie early this morning continues moving eastward and exits the rest of the lake by daybreak. Behind the front, a trough lingers over Lake Erie through Monday morning.
Southwesterly winds around 15 to 25 knots ahead of the front veer to westerly and then eventually to northwesterly behind the front. The strongest winds are expected east of The Islands. Waves as large as 4 to 7 feet are expected east of The Islands with smaller waves elsewhere due to shorter fetch. A ridge is expected to build from the TN Valley Monday afternoon through Monday night and cause northwesterly winds around 15 to 25 knots to back to southwesterly.
In response, waves should subside to 4 feet or less within nearshore waters and remain 4 to 7 feet in open U.S. waters, especially east of The Islands.

Another cold front is still expected to drift eastward across Lake Erie Tuesday through Tuesday night and cause southwesterly winds around 15 to 25 knots to veer toward northwesterly. Waves as large as 4 to 9 feet are expected east of The Islands with smaller waves elsewhere. Northwesterly winds around 10 to 20 knots are forecast to back gradually to southwesterly on Wednesday through Thursday as a ridge affects Lake Erie and the ridge's core moves from the north- central U.S. toward the Mid OH Valley. Waves are forecast to subside gradually to 5 feet or less.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for LEZ144.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for LEZ145.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ146>149.

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