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LEZ146 Avon Point To Willowick Oh-willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh- Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- 353 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 10 knots or less. A chance of rain and snow in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 45 degrees, off cleveland 45 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 041147 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 647 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
A trough will remain across the region today before a surface ridge nudges into the area from the southwest tonight. A low pressure system will cross the region on Tuesday and extend a cold front through the area. High pressure will build into the region behind this front for Wednesday and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Just cosmetic changes to the forecast so far this morning.
Temperatures remain holding steady in the mid-to-upper 30s and there will be a marginal increase through the day with most locations hitting the 40 degree mark.

Previous Discussion...
A surface trough remains across the region this morning as an upper trough moves through the Ohio Valley. Cold advective, westerly flow with these synoptic features will allow for lake enhanced precipitation to remain favored across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania for much of today. Temperature profiles across the region remain fairly marginal for snow (-5 to -6 C at 850 mb) and have mostly rain for the precipitation type today with perhaps a wet snowflake or two mixing in for areas well away from the lake. Moisture remains trapped under an inversion at around 6 kft and overcast skies will maintain everywhere with the trough moving through the region.
Temperatures will not warm much, if at all, across the forecast area with clouds and light cold air advection and have highs around 40 degrees across the area - give or take a degree or two.

For tonight, the upper trough axis will move through the region and the surface trough will adjust east, allowing for a surface ridge to enter. Drier air behind the upper trough and backing flow with the surface ridge will allow for lake enhanced precipitation to diminish through the night. Granted, cooling conditions may allow for any precipitation to become more snow than rain in the interior snow belt. However, any accumulation would be negligible. Temperatures will fall to freezing.

For Tuesday, another wave of the upper level trough will target the region and support a weak low pressure across the area.
There will be enough synoptic lift with help of the upper trough and enough moisture advecting into the region to allow for generally widespread precipitation to enter by late Tuesday morning/early Tuesday afternoon. Have continued a mix of likely and categorical PoPs with the highest south and west as the core of the system will stay south of the area. Because of this, the forecast area will remain cold with supportive temperature profiles for snow as the initial precipitation type before trying to fully change over to rain with slightly warming temperatures. Overall, the near surface environment and ground and pavement temperatures are likely too poor for snow to accumulate. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 30s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A weakening low pressure system will dissolve into a surface trough as it exits east of the area Tuesday evening and overnight. A chilly air mass will arrive behind the trough, characterized by 850 mb temperatures falling between -6 to -8 degrees C. Although not particularly cold, lingering mid-level moisture will allow for scattered lake-effect snow showers to persist through Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Snow accumulations are expected to generally remain below an inch and should be confined to the higher terrain. Mid-level moisture will then gradually decrease through Wednesday morning and afternoon, with lake-effect activity becoming more isolated and lighter before dissipating by Wednesday evening.

By Wednesday night into Thursday, an upper trough will move east across the Eastern Great Lakes bringing a brief chance for snow showers across NE OH and NW PA. Otherwise, Thursday should be fairly quiet and dry as an upper-level ridge develops and moves east across the Central CONUS/Great Lakes.

Below-average temperatures are expected for Wednesday with highs in the 30s. Temperatures will rebound back to near to slightly above average on Thursday, in the mid-40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Upper-level ridging will remain in place for much of Friday as a deep upper-level trough begins to develop across the Central CONUS.
Signs of a stronger storm system are starting to become more apparent for the weekend as this deep upper trough continues towards the Eastern CONUS, strengthening and becoming negatively tilted. Still a lot of finer details to work out for this storm system on the horizon, although widespread rain will be likely at some point Saturday into Sunday.

Above-average temperatures are expected for the long term period with highs in the low to mid-50 on Friday and Saturday. Depending on the timing of the storm system and associated fronts, above-average temperatures may also persist into Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
Widespread MVFR conditions remain across the region with a trough in the region and moisture trapped under a slight inversion. There are small pockets where the MVFR has eroded but these holes keep filling back in quickly and any VFR will be brief this morning and afternoon. Rain showers (with maybe a stray snowflake) continue downwind of Lake Erie, impacting NE OH/NW PA terminals. Precipitation is light and is not dropping visibility substantially to be a problem. For later today, believe ceilings will lift a bit to VFR levels as drier air intrudes and lake precipitation will stop. The next system will approach the region for Tuesday and have only begun non-VFR precipitation mentions for KCLE with the longer TAF at this time. Winds through the period will be generally westerly around 10 kt or less.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periods of rain and/or snow Tuesday with lingering non-VFR in NE OH/NW PA into Wednesday.

MARINE
Rough marine conditions remain across the central and eastern basins of Lake Erie this morning as westerly winds of 20 to 25 knots persist. However, improvement will begin to be felt by later this afternoon and evening as west to northwest winds decrease to less than 15 knots. Otherwise, looking at a fairly quiet marine forecast through much of the week. Winds will briefly shift towards the north and increase into the 15 to 20 knot range late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning behind a cold front. Low confidence on if a Small Craft will be needed. Winds will then shift offshore towards the southwest by Thursday, 15 to 20 knots, and persist through Friday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ146>149.

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