Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Akron, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible in the eastern half of the area this afternoon into early this evening.

2) A cold front will approach the area on Saturday and gusty winds are likely. Strong to severe thunderstorms possible across the area on Saturday.

3) Temperatures remain above average through Saturday evening with cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Frost/freeze headlines are likely Sunday night and Monday night.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Scattered showers and perhaps a few storms are possible across the area this morning. Instability will be a bit lower today, but still expect peak diurnal instability of up to 1000 J/kg this afternoon, primarily across eastern portions of the local area and along the lakeshore. Upper level forcing will be a bit better today as a trough moves east towards the region and shear values will be 40+ knots. By the time convection develops, the best lift/convergence will likely be near or east of I-71 in Ohio, so the eastern half of the area will be where to watch for thunderstorms (possibly strong to severe) this afternoon into early this evening. Some forecast soundings are hinting at a mid-level cap that could prevent thunderstorm growth, but the shear, marginal instability, and lapse rates support a marginal damaging wind gust and hail threat, especially if the cap ends up breaking. A couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the shear environment. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
of severe weather along the lakeshore and east of I-71 for today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
After a brief break in the unsettled weather on Friday, the next cold front will approach from the west on Saturday and cross the area late Saturday and possibly into early Sunday. Southwest gusts to 30 to 40 mph are likely with locally higher gusts possible as 925mb winds increase to as high as 40 knots during the day. Showers and thunderstorms will develop during peak diurnal instability Saturday and the deep moisture in place in addition to the stronger wind field will support potential for discrete and broken lines of storms Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe weather across southeastern portions of the area with a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across the majority of the remainder of the CWA

KEY MESSAGE 3...
Temperatures will remain above normal in the 70s through Saturday with highs near 80 degrees possible in locations that experience more clearing than anticipated during the day. A brief pattern shift is expected behind the cold front late Saturday through Monday. Lake-enhanced showers are possible as upper troughing persists across the region on Sunday and snow may mix with rain across NE OH/NW PA if precip persists into Sunday night. Highs will be below normal in the 40s and 50s Sunday and Monday and lows will begin to trend colder starting Saturday night. Minimum temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s Saturday night will give way to lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s Sunday night. Overnight temperatures will be slightly warmer in the western fringes of the area Monday night. At this point, frost seems unlikely Saturday night due to elevated winds/clouds and marginal temperatures Saturday night, but freeze headlines will likely be needed Sunday night. Additional headlines are likely Monday night, primarily in the eastern half of the area.
Temperatures will return to slightly above normal values Tuesday through late week.

AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/
The airspace starts with VFR conditions this morning with mid- level clouds across the region. Some isolated rain showers exist with some isentropic lift across Northeast Ohio into NW PA and there could be a brief shower at KYNG or KERI. The main show for today will be an incoming cold front that will allow for another round of showers and storms across the region. Early convection in NW OH should just be rain after dawn at KTOL and KFDY.
However, convection should flare up over North Central Ohio and allow for some clusters of thunderstorms to move through the remaining terminals during the afternoon hours. Have some TEMPO groups timed in across the area for the best chance of TS.
Behind the front, some wrap around precipitation could allow for rain to persist for the NE OH and NW PA terminals. Clouds will erode from the west during the evening hours. However, ceilings will persist down wind of Lake Erie and may fall to MVFR as winds shift to the west and northwest with the cold air advection.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are expected Saturday with rain continuing Saturday night through Sunday evening. This rain may mix with or change to scattered wet snow at times Sunday morning and again Sunday evening.

MARINE
Modest southwest flow continues across Lake Erie this morning ahead of a cold front. This cold front will allow for more shower and storm activity across the lake today before flipping light flow to the northwest tonight. Weak high pressure will enter on Friday keeping winds below 10 kts and variable. A warm front will enter on Friday night and restore southerly flow to the lake. This southerly flow will increase on Saturday ahead of a cold front and there is potential for 20 kts of offshore flow.
The cold front will cross the lake on Saturday night and shift flow to the west. A trough will remain over the lake on Sunday and keep westerly winds elevated in the 15 to 20 kt range and could be enough to generate some 4 ft waves for the eastern half of the lake. There could be the need for a Small Craft Advisory.
High pressure will build into the region for Monday and shift winds to the northwest and allow for them to diminish.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.