Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Greenport West, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Elevated risk of fire spread across most of the area today.

2) Warm away from the immediate coast today with above average temperatures, more seasonable for the remainder of the week.

3) A frontal system brings rain Wednesday and Wednesday night, with more recent model runs trending drier with lower probabilities of rain on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
The combination of drying fine fuels, southwest to south wind gusts between 25 and 30 mph, and relative humidity values between mainly 30 and 35 percent will contribute to an elevated risk of fire spread for southern CT, the Lower Hudson Valley, and New York City on Tuesday. The chance appears lower further east due to a a more southerly component to sfc winds off the ocean keeping RH values higher. Regardless of exact RH values, gusty winds with dry fuels will be able to promote fire spread if ignition occurs.

This forecast considers meteorological, fuel, and land conditions and has been developed in coordination with state fire and land management officials.


KEY MESSAGE 2
It turn warmer today with 1000-500 mb thicknesses rising on a SW-S flow as high pressure pushes further offshore. Look for temperatures from the metro on west to get a good 10 to 15 degrees above average for this afternoon. Temperatures will turn relatively cooler further east during the afternoon with a wind off the cooler ocean, but still above normal overall. Expect a good amount of sunshine today, and this will support lower and middle 80s across the warmer portions of NE NJ and interior Southeast NY. A cold front will then approach into Wednesday and pass through Wednesday night bringing cooler temperatures, more typical for early May for the remainder of the week.


KEY MESSAGE 3
The chances for rain increase across western portions of the area very late tonight into Wednesday morning as a fairly strong cold front approaches from the west. Latest NWP and AI guidance is putting out about a half inch of rain on average across the region.
With the low level flow becoming more southerly right ahead of the cold front look for the lower portion of the atmosphere to stabilize, and this should limit any convective potential. There may be enough instability above the boundary layer that may result in a rumble or two of thunder, but overall not expecting any surface based or significant convection. Essentially the area will receive a beneficial rainfall. QPF totals have decreased some over time as NWP guidance appears to be progressing the frontal boundary a bit faster now to the east Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Thus, the bulk of the rain takes place Wednesday afternoon and evening. There remains a chance of rain / showers into the day Thursday, but PoPs have gradually lowered over time, especially further west across the area. A second wave of low pressure is expected to develop to the south, but NWP and AI consensus has trended further to the south and east with this feature. Thus any rain on Thursday should be lighter in nature and likely further east with clouds expected to linger into Thursday evening. Skies are now expected to clear later Thursday night into Friday morning.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure remains offshore through tonight with a front stalled to our northwest. A frontal wave passes the through the area tomorrow.

VFR for much of the TAF period. MVFR by 15-16Z tomorrow in showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon and evening.

S-SSW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt expected in the afternoon and evening, strongest at coastal terminals. Gusts should begin to weaken in the late evening though most terminals maintain increased sustained winds around 10-15 kt into late tonight.

A period of LLWS is expected tonight. SSW 45-55 kt at 2,000 ft.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Onset time of gusts today may be off by 1-3 hours.

Peak gust up to 35 kt possible at KJFK 20z Tue to 00z Wed.


OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Wednesday-Wednesday Night: Showers with MVFR or lower. Slight chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon and evening. SW wind gusts 20-25 kt, mainly during the daytime.

Thursday: Chance of showers and MVFR or lower.

Friday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts near 20 kt, diminishing at night.

Saturday: Chance of showers and MVFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Small craft conditions prevail across all waters by late morning and more or less continue through the day Wednesday. There may be a brief lull in advisory level conditions across the western most non- ocean waters late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Otherwise expect advisory level conditions until at least Wednesday night with some eastern non-ocean waters having occasional gusts of 30 to 35 kt. Sub advisory conditions are expected to return from west to easter later Wednesday night into Thursday. Thereafter sub advisory conditions should persist through Friday night, followed by at least marginal small craft conditions towards Saturday afternoon on a southerly flow regime.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT Wednesday night for ANZ331-332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ335-338.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for ANZ350-353-355.