Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Greenport West, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:23PM Monday December 16, 2019 8:30 AM EST (13:30 UTC) Moonrise 10:12PMMoonset 11:53AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 637 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft this morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tonight..NE winds around 5 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 637 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over the region will slide offshore to the northeast today. A low pressure system will impact the region tonight through Tuesday. A polar cold front approaches Wednesday and moves across Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure builds into the region through Friday, then moves off the northeast coast. Low pressure passes to the north Saturday. Weak high pressure returns for Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greenport West, NY
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location: 41.1, -72.4     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 161208 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 708 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure over the region will slide offshore to the northeast today. A low pressure system will impact the region tonight through Tuesday. A polar cold front approaches Wednesday and moves across Wednesday night. Canadian high pressure builds into the region through Friday, then moves off the northeast coast. Low pressure passes to the north Saturday. Weak high pressure returns for Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Made only minor adjustments to temperatures and dew points. Radar returns across northern Pennsylvania were from mid clouds increasing across the region. Probabilities look ok as the lower levels remain dry.

High pressure over the western Atlantic will gradually slide east today as a mid level trough approaches from the west. Clouds will begin to thicken and lower through the morning as low pressure and its associated warm front approaches.

The first challenge will be how much precip actually is able to make it into the area this afternoon with lingering dry air and surface ridging across the northeast. Most high resolution models are indicating only some light precip initially until the high pushes further offshore. Temperatures will be cold enough that any precipitation that falls today will be in the form of flurries or light snow showers.

Highs today will be in the 30s area wide.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. High pressure will continue pushing offshore by this evening allowing for a surge in moisture. With better lift near the region from the approaching warm front, precip is projected to become more widespread. Precipitation should start off as snow everywhere, before quickly transitioning to a rain/snow mix then to all rain across NYC, Long Island and northeast NJ. The interior is expected to remain a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain.

The biggest challenge will be the ptype as warm air begins to move in aloft creating a warm nose. If the warm nose is large and/or the sub- freezing air near the surface is very shallow, we could end up with more freezing rain than sleet. It is likely that precip type will vary at times overnight as moderate or heavy precipitation will cool the column sufficiently changing the precip to sleet or snow at times.

With the uncertainty that remains in precip type, no changes to the winter weather advisories were made. This was mainly due to the low confidence in ice accumulation forecasts along the coast. Either way, it looks like the Tuesday morning commute will be impacted by a wintry mix which may warrant an advisory with future updates based on impacts.

Snowfall totals across the interior will range between 1-2 inches with ice accumulations of up to 1 tenth of an inch. Across northeast NJ, NYC Metro and Long Island less than an inch is expected, however there is a signal that a quick burst of snow could develop shortly after midnight when there is greatest lift enhanced by a low level jet. Rainfall totals will range from 0.5-1.00" where temperatures are expected to stay warmer.

Precipitation ends pretty quickly as the low pulls away Tuesday evening.

Lows tonight into Tuesday morning will be in the lower 20s to lower 30s with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. A wave of low pressure will continue to track quickly to the east Tuesday evening with any remaining light rain and wintry precipitation ending in the early evening. There remain some timing differences in the guidance with the GFS and NAM quicker while the ECMWF keeps some precipitation behind the low longer. With the progressive flow have leaned toward the quicker solutions.

Weak surface ridging builds Tuesday night into early Wednesday. However, with the quick flow, a rather strong vort is expected to move into the northeast associated with a polar front and closed upper low. Much of the energy will pass to the north however light snow or flurries will be possible across the area Wednesday afternoon into the evening with the polar front. With little moisture could be more flurries, so will have only slight chance probabilities. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal Wednesday night through Thursday night as core of the polar air tracks through upstate New York and southern New England.

Ridging builds and remains through Friday, as temperatures modify. Another system passes to the north Saturday and Saturday night. With little moisture will again be many snow and rain showers, or flurries and sprinkles.

Weak ridging returns, Sunday into the beginning of next week, with near zonal flow, and temperatures returning to near normal levels.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure over the area will drift offshore today. Low pressure will approach later today into tonight.

W-NW winds under 10 kts continue through this morning, then as the high passes east winds should become light generally around 5 kts out of the SW-S in the afternoon, then NE-E by this evening.

Clouds lower and thicken today. MVFR conds likely to develop mainly after 23Z, but could develop sooner for a brief while during this afternoon, especially across southwestern terminals (KEWR,KTEB,KJFK,KLGA). The overall timing of MVFR conditions may need to be moved up, with confidence of timing low at this time. For the NYC metro and coastal terminals during tonight, a wintry mix develops and changes to plain rain. The changeover will be much more gradual however across northern and northeastern terminals like KHPN/KSWF/KBDR/KGON, including freezing rain.

Timing of precip and MVFR conds uncertain late today into this evening. Also some uncertainty with the timing of the start of IFR conds for later Monday night. IFR conditions will develop generally after 6z, with possible LIFR conditions for some terminals after 9z.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments may be needed for possible MVFR conditions developing after 18z. Runway accumulations of under 1 inch expected through tonight.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments may be needed for possible MVFR conditions developing after 19z. Runway accumulations of up to 1 inch expected through tonight.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments may be needed for possible MVFR conditions developing after 16z. Runway accumulations of up to 1 inch expected through tonight.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments may be needed for possible MVFR conditions developing after 16z. Runway accumulations of 1 to 2 inches expected through tonight.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments may be needed into this evening as the timing of MVFR conditions may occur sooner than what is in TAF. Runway accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected through tonight.

KISP TAF Comments: Amendments may be needed into this evening as the timing of MVFR conditions may occur sooner than what is in TAF. Runway accumulations of under an inch expected through tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Tuesday. IFR or lower conds. Wintry mix, possibly changing back to all snow at KSWF before ending. Rain at NYC/NJ metro and coastal terminals, possibly changing to wintry mix before ending late. N winds G20kt in the afternoon. Tuesday night. VFR. NW winds G20kt NYC metros/KISP mainly eve. Wednesday. VFR. NW winds G25kt mainly afternoon. Thursday and Friday. VFR.

MARINE. No changes to the winds and seas at this time.

Small Craft seas will remain on the far eastern ocean through 11AM. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected through Monday night.

SCA seas return on the ocean Tuesday in advance of the next system with elevated seas and wind gusts increasing to 30 kt. Winds diminish Wednesday. The remainder of the forecast waters will remain below SCA levels.

As a polar cold front moves through the waters Wednesday night, with a wave of low pressure passing to the north. Strong and gusty winds develop with gale gusts likely on the ocean waters, and small craft advisory gusts across the remainder of the forecast waters Wednesday night and Thursday. SCA conditions are then expected on the ocean waters Thursday night as winds and seas diminish.

Sub advisory levels winds and seas are expected across all the waters Friday and Saturday.

HYDROLOGY. A widespread precipitation event today through Tuesday will a liquid equivalent QPF of 0.5 to 1.00 inches. There is uncertainty in this amount given uncertainty in the track of the low and frontal positions.

No significant precipitation is expected Tuesday night through the weekend.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for CTZ005>008. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ067>070. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Tuesday for NJZ002-103. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . CB/19 NEAR TERM . CB/19 SHORT TERM . CB LONG TERM . 19 AVIATION . JE MARINE . CB/19 HYDROLOGY . CB/19 EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 22 mi30 min Calm G 1 32°F 1021.5 hPa (+1.5)18°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 24 mi60 min 35°F 45°F1024.3 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 24 mi60 min NNW 1 G 2.9 31°F 41°F1024 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi60 min NW 4.1 G 6 32°F 42°F1023.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 42 mi60 min WNW 1.9 G 4.1 32°F 44°F1023.9 hPa
44069 46 mi60 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 34°F 40°F20°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT20 mi35 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy30°F17°F59%1023.7 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY22 mi37 minN 010.00 miOvercast29°F21°F75%1024.8 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT24 mi34 minNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F18°F56%1024.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmNE3CalmCalmE3E3E4E6E7E6E8
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Tide / Current Tables for Hashamomuck Beach, Long Island Sound, New York
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Hashamomuck Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:46 AM EST     4.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:38 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:52 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:03 PM EST     4.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:14 PM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.64.24.33.92.91.80.90.30.20.71.62.73.74.44.74.43.52.31.20.3-0.100.71.7

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:57 AM EST     -1.50 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:15 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:08 AM EST     1.60 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:52 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:22 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:34 PM EST     -1.73 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:22 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:44 PM EST     1.28 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.9-1.3-1.5-1.3-0.7-0.10.51.21.61.41.10.3-0.6-1.3-1.7-1.7-1.3-0.8-0.20.51.11.31.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.