Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pocono Pines, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure over the Northern and Central Plains will continue to build east today, and then will be centered over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by late tonight. Meanwhile, an upper trough lies over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. A closed H5 low will spin off the base of the trough over the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon, and then this closed low will meander off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. The closed low will allow surface low pressure to form well east of the Carolina coast late tonight.

Temperatures early this morning will drop into the low to mid 30s across the southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and northern New Jersey, as well as the Pine Barrens of New Jersey. Will keep the Frost Advisory in effect for the northern zones, and patchy frost possible for the Pine Barrens of New Jersey, but do not think frost will be widespread enough to warrant expansion of the Frost Advisory into those areas.

Another day with highs almost 10 degrees below normal, generally topping off in the mid to upper 50s throughout, and in the 40s in the southern Poconos. West to northwest winds will once again increase to 10 to 15 mph with 15 to 20 mph gusts. Winds diminish after sunset.

With high pressure building east, skies will be clear with light winds for the northwest half of the forecast area, resulting in strong radiational cooling conditions for the southern Poconos, northern New Jersey, and the Lehigh Valley. Temperatures drop off to below freezing, and areas of frost will develop. The Freeze Watch will be upgraded to a Freeze Warning.

For Delmarva and southern New Jersey, with low pressure developing offshore, there may be enough of a gradient forming, as well as clouds rotating around the low and spreading back towards the Mainland that will inhibit widespread frost from developing, as well as temperatures from dropping to near and below freezing. As a result, will neither issue a Frost Advisory nor a Freeze Warning for these areas, but patchy frost is possible.

Although a few light showers may rotate back towards Delaware Beaches late tonight, not expecting anything more than that.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A strong positively-tilted upper-level trough across most of the East is forecast to become a closed low centered near southeast Virginia as strong shortwave energy traverses the base of the trough. This will support surface low pressure offshore. Much of the guidance keeps this system moving away from the coast Thursday into Friday, however some take it more north-northwest and even stall if off the Delmarva coast. Given the building ridge incoming from the west, the closed low should be progressive enough and therefore take the surface low out to sea.

Despite the presence of the closed low Thursday, the forcing for ascent is forecast to remain mainly offshore. While a few showers may try and back in toward the far southeastern New Jersey coast and the Delaware Beaches, overall it is looking dry for the area.
The air mass associated with the incoming surface high results in temperatures continuing to be below average with much of the area topping out near 60 degrees. Temperatures at night drop mostly in the 35-45 degree range with patchy to areas of frost possible. The extent of the frost will depend on any cloud cover and if the wind can completely decouple at night, with some guidance wanting to keep a breeze going due to the offshore wind and therefore having a tighter pressure gradient over the coastal plain.

As we go through Friday, high pressure shifts is centered nearly over our region. Low pressure should be well offshore as the closed low shifts east. The air mass should start to modify some and therefore slightly warmer conditions with highs reaching the mid to upper 60s for most. It will be chilly again Friday night with patchy frost possible.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Summary...Daytime temperatures above average and the dry conditions continue.

Synoptic Overview...A strong upper-level ridge remains in place across much of the East during the weekend, then it is forecast to flatten some on its north side Monday as some energy rolls across southern Canada. The ridge may then shift offshore Tuesday as a shortwave trough slides across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, sprawling high pressure remains centered across the area through Monday before it starts to shift offshore during Tuesday.

For Saturday through Monday...An upper-level ridge is across much of the eastern states with sprawling surface high pressure forecast to be centered over our area. Given additional height rises accompanying the ridge, temperatures will be warm especially during the day with each afternoon rising into the the 70s for most places.
The presence of the ridge aloft and surface high pressure across the region currently results in a continuation of more dry conditions across the entire area.

For Tuesday...The upper-level ridge may shift offshore as a shortwave slides across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. There is some timing/strength differences among the guidance with this incoming system. As of now, the associated cold front is forecast to remain well to our west and therefore the stretch of dry conditions persist. Daytime temperatures are forecast to top out again in the 70s for much of the area, which is several degrees above average.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. W-NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. W-NW winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...VFR.

MARINE
NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts to 25 kt late tonight. Seas will build to 3 to 4 feet on the ocean waters. No marine headlines.

Outlook...

Thursday...Northerly wind gusts to around 25 knots are probable, mainly on the ocean zones. Seas build to 4-6 feet across the ocean zones. The conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria for Delaware Bay.

Friday through Sunday...Seas may remain around 5 feet on the ocean zones.

FIRE WEATHER
MinRH values today will average around 35 percent range for most of New Jersey, portions of southeast Pennsylvania, and Delmarva.
Northwest winds will also average 10 to 15 mph with 15 to 25 mph gusts. As a result, there will be the threat for fires to spread quickly.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ054-055- 060>062.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ054-055- 060>062.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ001-007.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ001-007- 008.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.