Sunrise 5:40 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 1:37 PM   Moonset 2:00 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 1101 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Overnight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds. Slight chance of light rain and drizzle late this evening. Fri - NE winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of showers. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Sun - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sun night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ300 1101 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure will continue moving south and east of long island tonight. High pressure will build in from northern new england late tonight through Friday night. High pressure generally remains in control through the middle of next week, with weak low pressure passing to the south this weekend. A cold front could move through the area late next week.

FXUS61 KPHI 170606 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 206 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure will remain offshore of the Middle Atlantic coast through Friday, before drifting out to sea. High pressure tries to build down into the area from the northeast over the weekend.
Another area of low pressure moves across the central Appalachians and offshore of the North Carolina coast later Sunday into Sunday night. Weak high pressure may finally build across the area early next week, before a cold front arrives later Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As the low shifts further off shore, starting to see some gradual improvement both in terms of the drizzle coming to an end, and the lower clouds scattering out.

Today will be a nice break in the dreary and rainy conditions we've seen the last few days (and what we'll see again tomorrow). With weak mid level short wave ridge in place, should have dry conditions with some breaks in the clouds, especially during the later half of the day. Even in areas where there are breaks in the clouds, it will be offset by the persistent onshore flow, thus resulting in temperatures near normal, with highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Clouds start building in again tonight as the next mid level trough begins to approach from the southwest. Rain showers associated with this system may start to encroach on our region before sunrise, especially for portions of Delmarva and areas of SE PA.
Rain amounts should be light though.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Not the greatest of weather weekends upcoming, but Sunday could end up being not too bad. A slow moving low and front approach from the Tenn./Ohio valley areas Saturday but then it drifts back south/east Sunday. The northern parts of the region will probably do the best with (only) a chance for showers Sat and perhaps dry all of Sunday. Delmarva and south NJ will likely have showers Sat, but will trend drier Sunday with perhaps sunshine late Sunday. Either way, Saturday will have cloudy skies most areas and Sunday will be cloudy south and partly (or mostly) sunny north/west. High temperatures will be cool Saturday (60s) but will climb back into the 70s by Sunday except for Delmarva and south NJ where highs mostly 60s will be found. The warmest mercury readings both Sat and Sunday will be across the North areas where more sunshine is expected.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
After the poor weather over the weekend, next week is shaping up to feature some drier conditions with more seasonable temperatures. The upper low across the Carolinas Sunday night and Monday slowly spins offshore while upper ridging takes place across the Middle Atlantic.
Fair weather Mon thru Wed with high temperatures mostly in the mid/upper 70s with low 70s for the far NW areas and close to the shore. Lows mostly in the 50s with some mid/upper 40s for the Pine Barrens and southern Poconos.

The next opportunity for showers will arrive Wed night/Thu as an upper short wave and surface cold front advance across the Great Lakes and then into our region. The upper flow will become more progressive by then, so the systems will not sit and spin like they are this week. We'll carry chance pops for Wed night/Thu at this stage. Temperatures will go a little above normal with more upper 70s across the area.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Through today...Expect gradual improvement in ceilings through the morning. Current trends have been faster than almost all guidance in improving conditions, so have reflected this in the TAFs. Based on these trends, all TAF sites are likely to return to VFR before 18Z, with KACY likely being the slowest to return to VFR. Wind speeds 5 to 15 kt through the day. The direction will be starting from the NNE, but should be out of the SE by late today for most TAF sites; KACY could remain NE through the TAF period. Moderate confidence on the overall pattern, but low confidence on exact timing of improvement.

Tonight...Starting VFR, but after 06Z, could see ceilings and visibilities reduced to MVFR in rain showers. TAF sites most likely to see the reductions before sunrise are KILG and KRDG.
Wind speeds should drop to 5 kt or less overnight. As for wind direction, winds may go light and variable for a period, but should generally favor the easterly direction. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sat ... Cloudy with showers at times. VFR, except MVFR possible with showers.

Sunday... VFR probable. MVFR early for KACY/KMIV/KILG.

Mon/Tue... Mostly VFR.

MARINE
For the Atlantic coastal waters, expect Small Craft Advisory conditions to continue into Friday, mainly due to seas. It should stay sub SCA on the Delaware Bay through this time. Seas will look to fall below 5 feet Friday afternoon; SCA may be ended early for the more southern zones (e.g., ANZ454/ANZ455)
due to faster falling seas.

Outlook...

Conditions will remain below SCA this weekend and into next week. Having said that, a few SCA gusts are possible Sunday morning but confidence in it is low and any effects should be spotty and limited. Showers are expected Sat/Sat night. On Sunday, early showers will diminish from north to south. Fair weather is expected Monday and into Tuesday.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ450>455.

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New Brunswick
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Thu -- 02:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:28 AM EDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:31 AM EDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:17 PM EDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:46 PM EDT     1.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

New Brunswick, New Jersey, Tide feet

Belleville
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Thu -- 02:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:24 AM EDT     5.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:48 AM EDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:24 PM EDT     4.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:06 PM EDT     1.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Belleville, Passaic River, New Jersey, Tide feet

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