Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:54 PM Moonrise 9:03 AM   Moonset 12:17 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 1021 Am Edt Sun May 12 2024
This afternoon - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Monday - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 51 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 121811 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 211 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Very low chance of showers tonight along the Indiana Michigan state line.

- Dry to start Monday, but a chance of later afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

- Drying out Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

One trough tracking through Quebec and a second trough swirling over western Kansas are the two features to watch in the coming 48 hours. A cold front is noted across the far Northern Plains, nosing into the western Great Lakes, associated with the Canadian trough. This will continue its trek southeast and bring increasing high clouds this evening and a very low chance of a shower for IN-MI border residents. Otherwise, dry tonight with unseasonably mild lows in the upper-50s.

By Monday morning, what was the western Kansas trough is now approaching the Mississippi River, spreading clouds overhead.
Monday looks primarily dry, but the late afternoon hours present a chance for rain, primarily west of I-69. This is a result of WAA and isentropic ascent amongst the buckling jet stream.
However, robust convection is forecast to be ongoing across the Gulf Coast states Monday, aided by a stout 500mb jet. Pattern recognition dictates this has historically robbed poleward moisture transport thus delaying the onset of rain. I've attempted to be stingy with POPs prior to 21z (5pm EDT) Monday.

Instead, the best widespread push of showers and storms is Monday night and Tuesday as the surface low moves through northern Indiana.
Storm total rainfall near 1 inch is likely, with some model guidance members indicated up to 1.50" is possible. Seven-day observed precipitation anomalies indicate streaks of above-normal rainfall. These positive anomalies become more widespread with 14-day and 30- day periods. Therefore, flooding is not a significant threat, but cannot be ruled out completely.

Drying out near sunrise Wednesday as the low moves over the Mid- Atlantic. Dry on Thursday as well before a shortwave moves into the Midwest Thursday night through Friday. Into next weekend, guidance is starting to advertise a towering Southeast US ridge, perhaps pushing our 850mb temperatures to 16-18C; toasty.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1134 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR through this period given continued subsidence within wrn flank of retreating ridge. Swrly winds may gust aoa 15kts invof KSBN this aftn during peak mixing.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Northern Indiana, IN,