Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wilton Center, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:26PM Thursday December 12, 2019 5:47 AM EST (10:47 UTC) Moonrise 6:00PMMoonset 8:25AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 258 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est early this morning...
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S late. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
ANZ300 258 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Strong arctic high pressure builds in through today then pushes offshore this evening. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through the marine zones on Saturday with high pressure building back in on Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilton Center, CT
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location: 41.16, -73.42     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 120834 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 334 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. Dense arctic high pressure system shifts over the Tri-State area today then continues to move east and offshore tonight. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through on Saturday with high pressure building back in Sunday and Monday. Another storm then impacts the area for Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. A strong 1040mb high pressure system builds over the Tri-State area this morning through the evening spurred eastward by a 120kt zonal jet streak over Maine. This system brings in much drier conditions than the previous 24 hours with an average 1000-500mb RH fall to less than 20%. As a result clear skies expected with no chance of precipitation.

Temperatures will be much colder as well approximately 10 degrees lower than the daily normals. High temperatures in the afternoon will struggle to reach the mid 30s near the city and across Long Island. Areas around the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT may not rise about freezing despite the sunny day.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. High pressure shifts offshore Thursday evening and overnight as locally winds become more southerly allowing for moisture in the low levels to begin to return to the region. In the upper levels of the atmosphere a trough axis over the Lower Mississippi Valley promotes a southwest to northeast upper level flow. In this flow regime deep sub-tropical air will be able to moisten the environment locally.

Expected an chance for scattered showers Friday afternoon into the evening as cloudiness increases throughout the day though isolated showers could be possible in the late morning hours as well. Temperatures return to near normal reaching the mid 40s by the afternoon.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The long term period starts off wet as an area of low pressure impacts the region Friday night through Saturday night. POPs will gradually increase Friday night with rain rain becoming likely.

The center of the storm is expected to pass over or nearby the Tri- State Area Saturday morning into the early afternoon. Increasing lift with deep moisture brings primarily rainfall that will be moderate, to locally heavy at times. Rain chances gradually drop off through Saturday night with the storm off to the east and a westerly flow developing in its wake. There may be a few left over showers early Sunday morning, but overall, drier weather is expected on Sunday.

High passes over the area on Monday, with dry weather continuing. The next low pressure system then approaches from the Ohio Valley Monday night with increasing chances of rain, snow, or a rain/snow mix into Tuesday. Will continue to keep PoPs limited to no higher than 50% through Tuesday night as 00z forecast models continue to show different storm tracks. The exact track will have implications on precipitation type. Went with the middle ground for this forecast, including simplified PCPN types this far out in time, however, it is possible we could see some sleet or even some freezing rain depending on the exact track of the low, and at this point, its too far out to determine that now. High pressure would then follow for Wednesday with dry weather.

AVIATION. High pressure builds over the region today and then offshore in the evening.

VFR though most of the period with MVFR ceilings developing after 06Z Friday.

NW winds will continue to gradually lighten through the morning hours. Any lingering gusts should end by 10z. A weak and variable flow should occur 18z-21z before a weak S-SE flow develops late in the afternoon into the early evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thursday night. Becoming MVFR after 06Z. Friday and Friday night. MVFR or lower in developing rain, especially Friday night. Saturday. IFR in rain, tapering off to scattered showers later in the day and at night. LLWS possible. Sunday. Generally VFR. West winds 10-15kt gusts 20-30kt. Sunday night-Monday. VFR.

MARINE. Wave heights diminish during the day Thursday with offshore waters 2-3 feet. South winds strengthen Friday and waves increase through the day reaching 4-5 feet by the late afternoon.

Winds and seas continue to increase Friday night ahead of low pressure, which is expected to pass through or nearby during Saturday morning or early afternoon. SCA conditions area expected on the ocean waters Friday night through Saturday. For the non-ocean waters, there is a chance we remain sub-sca as gusts do not reach 25 kt and seas dont reach 5 ft. The exact track of the low will determine whether or not sca conditions are met.

Winds then pick up from the west on Saturday night and Sunday behind the storm. SCA conds likely for all waters, and potentially gales Sunday into Sunday night on the ocean, eastern LI Sound and the eastern LI bays. Winds and seas subside on Monday with the approach of a high pressure ridge, but possibly still within advisory criteria for a portion of the day.

HYDROLOGY. 1.00 to 1.50 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts are anticipated from Friday night through Saturday. Minor nuisance flooding will be possible with this event.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There will be a chance of coastal flooding with the high tide cycle during Saturday morning. This will be due to onshore winds with an approaching storm combined with relatively high astronomical tides due to a nearly full moon. Minor coastal flooding will be possible primarily along the south shore back bays of Long Island, where even moderate coastal flooding is a possibility at least along the Nassau County bays. Minor flooding will also be possible along NY Harbor and parts of Western Long Island Sound. Confidence is not high at this point as the event is still a few days away, and shifts in storm's track and/or timing would change the flooding potential.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . BC/DJ/16 NEAR TERM . DJ/16 SHORT TERM . DJ/16 LONG TERM . JC AVIATION . DS/DW MARINE . BC/DJ/16 HYDROLOGY . BC/DJ/16 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 13 mi54 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 26°F 44°F1037 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 16 mi63 min NW 14 G 19 29°F 1 ft14°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 25 mi48 min WNW 12 G 19 29°F 32°F15°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 28 mi48 min NW 5.1 G 7 26°F 42°F1036.8 hPa (+3.5)
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 30 mi48 min N 15 G 19 29°F 43°F1038.5 hPa (+3.3)
44069 36 mi48 min NW 16 G 21 29°F 39°F14°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 45 mi48 min 29°F 44°F1038 hPa (+3.1)
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 49 mi48 min N 8.9 G 11 29°F 1037.9 hPa (+3.3)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT15 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair15°F12°F88%1037.2 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT15 mi56 minWNW 510.00 miFair25°F10°F53%1037.3 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi52 minW 710.00 miFair24°F10°F55%1037.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBDR

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N5CalmN6N6CalmW3W4SW5SW7SW6W8W7W11
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Tide / Current Tables for South Norwalk, Connecticut
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South Norwalk
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:57 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:25 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:00 AM EST     8.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:33 PM EST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:31 PM EST     7.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.34.93.31.80.70.30.82.34.36.27.58.17.56.14.22.30.7-0.3-0.30.72.44.35.96.9

Tide / Current Tables for Rowayton, Fivemile River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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