Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilton Center, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 7:44PM Thursday August 22, 2019 10:21 PM EDT (02:21 UTC) Moonrise 11:28PMMoonset 12:46PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 742 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N late. Seas 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Scattered showers in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Tue..NE winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 742 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves through the region tonight. High pressure then builds to the north Friday through this weekend, and across the canadian maritimes early next week. Low pressure may pass south and east of the local area during Tuesday into Tuesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilton Center, CT
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location: 41.16, -73.42     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 230006
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
806 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front moves through the region tonight. High pressure
then builds to the north Friday through this weekend, and
across the canadian maritimes early next week. Low pressure may
pass south and east of the local area during the middle of next
week, followed by a slow moving cold front late in the week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Showers and thunderstorms in association with an approaching
cold front are moving through portions of the lower hudson
valley and northeast new jersey as of 8 pm. These storms may be
strong to possibly severe, especially in new jersey into
southern portions of new york city, where a severe thunderstorm
warning was issued until 845 pm. Also, some showers and isolated
thunderstorms may develop out ahead of this boundary, so lesser
chances for towards eastern areas, until this main area of
showers moves east with the cold front.

The cold front is expected to pass through overnight. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through, and it
appears that outside of the activity currently NW of the city,
the better coverage will arrive towards midnight as lift is
enhanced by a low level jet moving through the forecast area.

This jet will also provide some wind shear to maintain a chance
of strong wind gusts with some thunderstorms, but the overall
threat of any severe wind gusts is low as CAPE will be
diminishing by this point. Flash flooding would be a low threat
given the forward speed of the storms. Rain chances then
diminish towards daybreak.

Heat index values so far within the advisory have been
primarily below 95, and are expected to remain that way for the
rest of the day. Have therefore cancelled the heat advisory.

A moderate rip current risk remains into this evening along the
ocean beaches.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
Morning showers are possible with an approaching upper level
jet combining with lingering moisture. Although the right
entrance region of this jet will be approaching us through the
day, the drying and stable airmass building in behind the cold
front will counteract this, so dry in the afternoon. Mid and
upper level clouds probably linger however, and chances of a
mostly clear sky improve towards the end of the day. Dewpoints
will be in the 50s so it will feel much less humid than it has
been, and high temperatures end up a few degrees below normal.

Further clearing of the sky occurs Friday night with high
pressure building in. Lows dropping into the 50s for the
northern suburbs and pine barrens region.

There is a moderate rip current risk Friday along the ocean
beaches.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Latest nwp model suite showing good agreement across north
america into early next week. By tue, the global models deviate
significantly off the east coast along with timing and amplitude
differences with a trough cutoff over south central canada and
into the plains.

A dry, cooler and less humid airmass prevails over the weekend
with highs generally in the 70s, which is below normal for this
time of year. As deep layered ridging builds from the west, a
weak cutoff low develops over the northeast. Not expecting any
showers as a result of this with the lack of a cold pool aloft.

However, as the associated sfc high builds to the north across
se canada and increasing easterly flow will develop. This
pattern is indicative of stratus development and possibly some
light rain or drizzle Sun sun night. This feature lifts north
and east on mon, as another low off the carolina approaches.

The energy associated with this low is currently in the bahamas
and needs to be watched over the next several days for tropical
development. Although both the GFS and ec track it well south
and east of the local area mid next week, while the cmc shears
it apart off the coast of florida.

Meanwhile, an upper level trough over the plains gradually
traverses east through Thu but as mentioned above there are
timing and amplitude differences with this so the timing of the
associated frontal system is uncertain. Temps will increase back
to normal levels Wed and Thu with higher humidity levels as well
due to a southerly flow.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
A cold front will move through late overnight into early Friday
morning.

MainlyVFR, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through
06z, moving east northeastward through the terminals. Brief MVFR
conditions are possible with the storms.

Winds are variable and generally light, less than 10 kt. Winds
will become NW to N as the front moves into the terminals, and
increase to around 10 kt. N to NW winds continue through
Friday.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 13 mi57 min WNW 2.9 G 8 73°F 79°F1012.6 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 28 mi51 min W 4.1 G 4.1 78°F 78°F1011.9 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 30 mi51 min SSE 5.1 G 7 71°F 76°F1013.2 hPa
44069 36 mi51 min WSW 9.7 G 16 80°F 82°F75°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 45 mi51 min 73°F 77°F1012.7 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 49 mi51 min NNE 6 G 7 1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT15 mi28 minN 06.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist73°F71°F94%1012.9 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT15 mi29 minN 08.00 miLight Rain74°F69°F85%1012.5 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi25 minN 08.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F71°F94%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBDR

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7----Calm----------SW6SW5SW7SW9----SW12SW13SW11SW12SW10W5N8--Calm
1 day agoSW5--SW3------------NE3E4----SW7SW6SW5S8S10--S12S11SW11SW8SW9
2 days agoNW5--------------N3CalmN5N6N6NE6NE5S8S8S8SW6----S6S10S6

Tide / Current Tables for South Norwalk, Connecticut
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South Norwalk
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:17 AM EDT     6.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:32 AM EDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:41 PM EDT     7.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:12 PM EDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:27 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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23.556.26.76.65.74.32.91.81.21.11.93.34.96.37.27.36.75.43.82.51.51.1

Tide / Current Tables for Rowayton, Fivemile River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.