Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Lagoon, CA

KEY MESSAGES

-Breezy winds at the coast this weekend.

-Warmer and drier conditions build Sunday through most of next week.

DISCUSSION
A weak shortwave is currently crossing the area, which has helped pull elevated marine clouds all across the area overnight with some drizzle likely along the coast around sunrise. Cool marine air and clouds will generally keep conditions cool Saturday with interior highs in the low to mid 70s generally slightly below normal for the time of year. Despite moisture pushing onshore, moderate to strong north winds gusting up to 30 mph near shore this afternoon will likely keep conditions mixed enough to allow for mostly clear skies while slight offshore flow overnight will weaken any marine clouds.

High pressure will very slowly begin to arch over the area Sunday.
This will allow for temperatures to begin warmer with broadly dry conditions all across the area. Continued strong north winds pushing onshore in the afternoon will continue to keep the coast cool.
Interior high temperatures will peak early next week with highs just slightly above normal in the low 90s. Weakening north winds and slight high pressure will encourage to reformation of marine layer stratus by Tuesday and into midweek, though afternoon clearing will remain likely.

A quick moving shortwave around Thursday will again cool temperatures back to near or below average with marine influence sweeping inland. It will also help mix out any marine layer that does manage to form earlier int he week alongside gusty north winds along shore. There is a very, very slim chance of light rain with this wave, but the vast majority of models show rain stay north of the area. There is greater uncertainty by next weekend. Most models now show a trough dipping across the area. Cooler and more moist conditions are near certain, with some models (40%) showing light wetting rain along the North Coast. Some model members show low pressure detaching from the trough and moving south. Such a setup with bring warmer condition and a chance of Thunderstorms, but this setup is relatively unlikely (20% chance). /JHW

AVIATION
A marine layer has slowly reformed overnight even over much of the interior. That said, a passing shortwave has kept ceilings so elevated that mostly MVFR to VFR conditions have persisted overnight. Some drizzle may worsen conditions around sunrise, but even just IFR conditions currently appears unlikely (20% chance). Otherwise, Saturday will again bring mostly VFR conditions through the day. A shallower marine layer may (25% chance) may bring MVFR to IFR ceilings Saturday evening to the immediate coast. /JHW

&

MARINE
Despite weak winds, a persistent northwest swell has kept seas moderately steep overnight. Moderately steep seas and weak winds will continue through Friday morning. Moderate to strong north winds will begin to build into the outer waters during the day and push closer to shore by mid day Saturday. Short period seas will quickly steepen back over 10 feet. North winds will continue to increase through the weekend with gale conditions in the outer waters likely Sunday. The existing northwest swell will decay out of the waters by late Friday, allowing for short period seas to dominate the sea state. Winds will weaken slightly but most likely remain moderate early next week. /JHW



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470.

Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ475.

Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475.