Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 3:00 PM   Moonset 2:37 AM

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PZZ450 Pt St George To Cape Mendocino Out 10 Nm- 848 Pm Pdt Fri May 17 2024
.hazardous seas warning in effect through late Saturday night - .
Tonight - N winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to around 35 kt. Waves nw 12 ft at 10 seconds - .and nw 2 ft at 12 seconds. Sat - N winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves nw 10 ft at 10 seconds - .and W 2 ft at 11 seconds. Sat night - N winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to around 35 kt. Waves N 11 ft at 9 seconds - .and W 2 ft at 11 seconds. Sun - N winds 20 to 30 kt. Waves N 9 ft at 9 seconds - .and sw 2 ft at 18 seconds. Sun night - N winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves nw 11 ft at 10 seconds - .and sw 2 ft at 18 seconds. Mon - N winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves N 11 ft at 10 seconds - .and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Tue - N winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves N 8 ft at 9 seconds. Wed - N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves N 7 ft at 7 seconds.

PZZ400 848 Pm Pdt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for northern california waters - Northerly gales in the outer waters will continue through the weekend as large, short- period seas persist across all zones. Conditions are forecast to be slightly better in the southern inner waters. Winds and seas are expected to peak later today and into Saturday, then subsiding overnight before increasing again Sunday afternoon. Gale or near-gale force winds and hazardous seas remain possible late this weekend through early next week.

FXUS66 KEKA 172135 AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 235 PM PDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Temperatures inland will continue to cool to at or below seasonal averages through the weekend. Coastal stratus will diminish this weekend.



DISCUSSION
Clear skies have finally prevailed across the entire region this afternoon. Widespread coastal stratus will likely subside into the weekend as a trough moves through the Pacific Northwest, weakening the morning inversion. Little additional moisture arrives with this trough and rain is not expected, though winds will be stronger this weekend. Saturday, NBM shows a 20-30% probability of wind gusts greater than 30 mph at coastal Humboldt and Mendocino and a 60% chance at coastal Del Norte. Sunday, this increases to 90% across the entire coast along with ridgetops.
Interior Lake and Mendocino counties will be gusty as well with NE gusts up to 25 mph possible. Slightly stronger offshore winds in Lake and Trinity counties, especially on the ridgetops, look possible Monday afternoon, with around a 50% of NE gusts above 30 mph at the ridgetops.

Sunday afternoon and Monday morning are expected to be much colder than this last week, with temperatures in Humboldt, Del Norte, and Trinity counties 5-10 degrees below normal. Low 40s along the coast and mid-to-high 30s in interior valleys. Frost is possible in some of the colder interior valleys of Humboldt and Trinity counties Monday morning. Temperatures will warm back to near-normal by mid next week as a ridge builds back in.

There is some uncertainty midweek on the prevailing pattern, as a series of shortwaves looks possible in the Pacific Northwest, but the probability of reaching California is below 10%. There is more agreement on a stronger trough moving in late week into the weekend, with better probability to see some minor precipitation. JB



AVIATION
Marine stratus has currently been eroded by mid-level northerly winds as a weak surface front drops into NorCal.
Conditions have finally reached VFR at CEC while strong winds has been keeping the returning southerly flow and associated stratus layer away from the terminal. Gusts 20-35kt out of the north are likely for the coastal terminals this afternoon causing the cloud deck to dissolve out of Humboldt Bay. Mid-level (2500ft AGL) winds are flowing offshore through most of the forecast period along the Del Norte coast, possibly leading to compression heating prohibiting a stratus resurgence later this evening and into tomorrow early morning. Model guidance is showing a 20-30% of the clouds returning, this is unlikely but not entirely out of the question. At KACV, the upper winds winds are more onshore, which could possibly allow the stratus to reform in the Humboldt bay area up to Patricks Point, yet again more like it does not. This is supported model probability showing a 15-45% of clouds below 3000ft reforming late tonight into tomorrow morning. If the marine stratus were to return, it would not start until midnight tonight or early tomorrow morning.

Meanwhile in the UKI valley, VFR conditions are prevailing with light winds that will shift to the north as the day continues. IFR ceilings and reduced visibility's will likely continue through the afternoon. Model guidance currently showing a chance (30-55%)
probability of a surge of moisture flowing up the Russian River valley which could lead to IFR/LIFR conditions if this manifests itself up to KUKI. Forecast confidence on this event developing remains low as numerical model guidance struggles to pick up these southerly wet surges.



MARINE
Northerly gales are expected to persist across the outer waters today, producing hazardous 10-12 foot short period waves across all zones. Hi-Res models are still forecasting gusts of 35-45 knots late tonight and into Saturday across the outer waters as the coastal jet peaks in intensity. Significant wave heights to 15 feet at 10-11 seconds are expected in response early Saturday into Sunday. Steep and dangerous seas will continue through at least late this weekend as gales persist in the outer waters. Current model guidance indicates the strongest winds and wave response shifting to the southern waters on Sunday before another resurgence of gales early next week.



EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ450.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ455.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 9 PM this evening to 4 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ455.

Gale Warning until 4 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ470.

Gale Warning until 10 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ475.

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Trinidad Harbor
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Sat -- 03:27 AM PDT     1.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:36 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:55 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:13 AM PDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:02 PM PDT     1.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:58 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:31 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:30 PM PDT     5.75 feet High Tide
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Trinidad Harbor, California, Tide feet

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