Thursday, November14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Marion, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 4:33PM Thursday November 14, 2019 6:48 PM EST (23:48 UTC) Moonrise 7:15PMMoonset 9:30AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 412 Pm Est Thu Nov 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain after midnight.
ANZ300 412 Pm Est Thu Nov 14 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A trough near the region moves offshore tonight. A cold front will follow, approaching Friday and moving across Friday night. High pressure builds in during Saturday and will settle north of the waters on Sunday. An offshore storm will pass south, then east of the waters Sunday night into Monday. A second offshore system is expected to develop offshore Tuesday night and move away during Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Marion CDP, NY
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location: 41.17, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 142113
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
413 pm est Thu nov 14 2019

Synopsis
A trough near the region moves offshore tonight. A cold front
will follow, approaching Friday and moving across Friday night.

High pressure builds in during Saturday and will settle just
north of the area on Sunday. An offshore storm will pass south,
then east of the area Sunday night into Monday. A second
offshore system is expected to develop offshore Tuesday night
and move away during Wednesday. High pressure will build by
Wednesday night and settle nearby on Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
With high pressure moving well northeast into the atlantic, the
local region will be in between low pressure systems in the
southeast u.S. And in southeast canada. The cold front
associated with the southeast canada system approaches the
region tonight.

The trough that was in the region earlier will be moving
offshore tonight, with surface winds becoming more westerly. The
trough will linger offshore and some models are indicating some
moisture convergence and precipitation along it especially late
tonight into early Friday. This also coincides with mid to
upper level positive vorticity advection increasing with height
during that time period. The models have indicated this to be
just offshore. Expecting clouds to linger around the coastal
areas with a slow decrease for inland locations tonight.

Lows were a blend of met ecs, relatively warmer for coastal
areas and coolest across the interior in accordance with where
radiational cooling will be more efficient.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
For Friday, the trough moves offshore early. This will be
followed by a cold front that will approach the region from the
north and west. The flow ahead of it will become more westerly
and there will be some low level warm air advection ahead of the
cold front. This westerly flow will mean less marine influence
and with efficient vertical adiabatic mixing expected to 850mb
with those 850mb temperatures increasing to 3 to 4 degrees c,
this will translate to warmer surface temperatures. These were
taken from met ecs blend and further modified slightly with
highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, remarkably warmer than the
previous day.

Not much forcing seen with the front with overall more negative
vorticity advection. Decreasing clouds forecast during the day.

For Friday night, the cold front moves across the region and
will bring in a colder airmass. The cold air advection will be
seen with the winds becoming more northerly and gusty as well.

Low level northerly wind backs to a more westerly wind in the
mid levels. Clouds continue to be minimal with the local region
being in between two main shortwaves (one in the SE us and one
in the canadian maritimes). Slight ridging seen in the mid
level height fields towards early Saturday giving subsidence and
keeping mostly clear sky conditions.

For lows, it will be coldest across interior where winds will
be lighter, and relatively higher winds will keep boundary
layer warmer across the coastal areas. Ecs used for mins which
mostly range from the low 20s to low 30s.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
To begin the period strong canadian high pressure will anchor itself
just north of the region. Global guidance suggest a rather strong
surface high in the neighborhood of 1036 to 1040 mb. A rather strong
confluence zone at 500 mb delivers the high slightly further south
with respect to the 12z model consensus than some previous runs.

This will have an impact on the wind speed forecast for the weekend.

Temperatures will average a good 15 degrees below average on
Saturday, and 10 to 15 degress below average Saturday night. If the
high can build down just slightly further south than anticipated
then the stronger pressure gradient would be along the southern
portions of the area, or maybe even displaced just to the south over
the offshore coastal waters. Also the strong confluence zone aloft
to the north helps to displace a potent southern branch feature just
slightly further south to begin the weekend. The exact placement of
this feature will impact the forecast for late in the weekend and
into early Monday. Basically the 12z global guidance keeps the
southern branch feature moving along enough and displaced far enough
to the south into Saturday night that the system has difficulty
making the turn due north into Sunday. There is actually very good
overall model agreement that the southern branch feature does
eventually turn north and perhaps just west of north by the times it
gets offshore a bit. This would mean by and large a miss of any
significant precipitation for our region, with perhaps eastern new
england capturing some of the western periphery of the precipitation
shield. Therefore mainly slight chance pops seems prudent for
eastern sections later Sunday and Sunday night, with chance pops for
far northeastern parts of our region. Heights do rise rather quickly
Saturday night and into Sunday with the upper level low to our north
lifting out quickly as the pattern will be rather progressive due to
a lack of blocking. This will mean with temperatures well below
average for the first half of the weekend along with a biting north
to northeast wind temperatures will modify a bit into Sunday.

Although, with the northeast wind continuing throughout the weekend
the temperature moderation will perhaps not be as noticeable.

Another question is if precipitation from the offshore low gets
further northwest than expected would it be cold enough in the low
levels for a period of light freezing rain late Sunday night and
early Monday morning. Likely any bit of cold air left behind would
be quite shallow as it warms up, especially above the boundary
layer. If enough moisture gets further west than anticipated there
is an outside chance of a bit of light frozen precip in the form of
mainly freezing rain for far NW ct and parts of the hudson valley.

This will have to be watched in subsequent forecast cycles.

The west coast ridge and east coast trough will attempt to re-
establish itself for early next week. As the first southern branch
system exits during the second half of Monday height falls get
renewed over the upper midwest as another shortwave rounds the base
of the newly formed longwave trough. Due to a lack of low level
moisture in the wake of the previous southern branch feature chose
to stay on the low side with pops for the late Monday into early
Tuesday. By late Tuesday into Wednesday the atmosphere may get moist
enough once again as another shortwave is progged to round the base
of the trough. Global guidance suggests that by late Tuesday and
Tuesday night surface low pressure will form along and off the mid
atlantic coast. It is suggested that the overall wavelength of the
long wave pattern will shift just enough to the east to keep the
bulk of this system also mainly offshore. Also it appears that the
system will not deepen until enough upper level energy consolidates
offshore by early on Wednesday. By then the upper level trough axis
begins to pivot through the area and this system is more likely at
this time to have impacts to our north and east. The older ecmwf
runs were a bit slower than some of its global counterparts with the
evolution and overall speed of the upper level pattern. However, the
12z ECMWF run was east and slightly faster, therefore confidence
with respect to the track is at least at a moderate level with the
mid week system.

High pressure off to the southwest will then build into the region
late Wednesday into Wednesday night providing brisk and dry weather.

The high will then settle just south of the area on Thursday
providing a dry day. Temperatures are expected to modify throughout
the period during the early portion of the week, then remain
seasonably cool late in the period for late Wednesday into
Thursday.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
A weak warm front passes to the north this afternoon. A cold
front approaches tonight into Friday.

Vfr. Bkn ceilings around 4000 ft are likely at kgon into this
evening.

S-sw winds around 10 kt or less into the evening. Winds will
diminish tonight as they veer to the W and then w-nw. W-nw winds
under 10 kt expected on Friday morning.

Outlook for 18z Friday through Tuesday
Friday afternoon Vfr.

Friday night Vfr. NW wind gusts 20-30 kt.

Saturday-Sunday Vfr. Wind n-ne around 15kt with gusts 20-30kt.

Monday MVFR or lower possible. Chance of rain near coast and
wintry mix inland early. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Tuesday MainlyVFR.

Marine
Relatively weak pressure gradient will keep conditions below
sca through Friday on the waters. Then, the pressure gradient
will increase Friday night between low pressure off the
southeast coast of the us and high pressure to the northwest of
the local region. Gale watch starts on the ocean waters late
Friday night and SCA conditions will be likely on the non-ocean
waters.

Gale wind gusts are expected on the ocean waters through the
day on Saturday and may linger through the weekend, especially
further east out on the ocean. Otherwise SCA wind gusts are
expected to continue on the non-ocean waters through the
weekend. Seas will build on Saturday as an easterly swell
develops and strengthens into the Saturday night. Seas will be
get as high as 10 to 11 feet in southern parts of the ocean
waters for late Saturday through Sunday. The winds and seas will
then gradually subside through Monday as low pressure exits the
coastal waters. Conditions will drop below SCA criteria for the
non-ocean waters by Monday afternoon, with SCA conditions
continuing out on the ocean through Monday and possibly Monday
night due to lingering elevated seas.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the forecast
period.

Tides coastal flooding
Due to the likelihood of an easterly swell developing during the
weekend and a persistent NE wind into early next week minor coastal
flooding for some coastal locations cannot be ruled out. The best
chance at waters levels approaching minor coastal flood thresholds
would be for the south shore western back bays and western sound
locations for mainly the late morning and late evening high tide
cycles on Sunday and potentially on Monday.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) is operating
at reduced power until further notice.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from midnight Friday night to 6 pm est
Saturday for anz330-335-338-340-345.

Gale watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon
for anz350-353-355.

Synopsis... Je jm
near term... Jm
short term... Jm
long term... Je
aviation... Ds
marine... Je jm
hydrology... Je jm
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 16 mi18 min W 6 G 12 46°F 1019.3 hPa37°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 18 mi48 min Calm G 1 55°F1026.6 hPa (-1.0)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi48 min 49°F1027.1 hPa (-0.6)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi48 min SW 1 G 2.9 41°F 49°F1026.1 hPa (-0.9)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi54 min N 1 G 1.9 40°F 51°F1025.9 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT18 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair36°F30°F81%1026.4 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT18 mi52 minNW 310.00 miA Few Clouds39°F34°F82%1026.8 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY22 mi54 minSW 5 mi49°F36°F61%1027.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHTO

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5S8S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Orient, Long Island Sound, New York
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Orient
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:45 AM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:35 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:29 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:34 AM EST     3.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:33 PM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:11 PM EST     2.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.61.20.80.50.40.71.42.22.83.23.22.92.21.50.90.40.10.10.51.21.82.32.5

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:04 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:04 AM EST     -2.86 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:02 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:34 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:28 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:00 AM EST     2.92 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:08 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:26 PM EST     -3.39 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:41 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:31 PM EST     2.79 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-1.2-2.4-2.9-2.5-1.4-01.32.52.92.51.50.2-1.2-2.5-3.3-3.3-2.4-10.51.82.72.72

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.