Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
East Marion, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:24PM Monday July 13, 2020 7:52 PM EDT (23:52 UTC) Moonrise 12:42AMMoonset 1:45PM Illumination 39% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 558 Pm Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 558 Pm Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak low pressure trough will move off to the east tonight, then another will develop over the area on Tuesday. As this trough moves east a back door cold front will pass through from the north Tuesday night, with high pressure building in for Tuesday night and Wednesday before shifting east on Thursday. The next frontal system will affect the region Thursday night into Friday evening. High pressure will build in on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Marion CDP, NY
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location: 41.17, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 132331 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 731 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak low pressure trough will move off to the east tonight, then another will develop over the area on Tuesday. As this trough moves east a back door cold front will pass through from the north Tuesday night, with high pressure building in for Tuesday night and Wednesday before shifting east on Thursday. The next frontal system will affect the region Thursday night into Friday evening. High pressure will build in for the upcoming weekend. Another frontal system is possible for next Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Cu have been diminishing with the loss of peak heating, and sea breeze boundaries, and out flow boundaries were dissipating. With no additional thunderstorm development have removed the chances of precipitation across eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut for early this evening.

Updated temperatures and dew points through this evening.

Lows tonight per GFS/NAM MOS blend, 60-65 well inland and 65-70 elsewhere, warmest in NYC.

A high risk of rip current development continues at the ocean beaches due to continued long period southerly swell.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Sfc trough should redevelop with daytime heating, and with an upper trough moving across, expect sct afternoon showers/tstms mainly across SE CT, with highs in the 80s per MOS blend.

A back door cold front moving through Tue evening may spark an isolated shower or tstm, otherwise dry for Tue night. Low temps should be similar to those fcst tonight, maybe only a touch cooler.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches as long period southerly swell continues.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A sub tropical ridge will be building into the eastern states Wednesday as the flow across the remainder of the country remains nearly zonal and progressive. The eastern ridge moves offshore Thursday as a warm front approaches and moves north early Friday. A weakening cold front slides south of the region Friday night. The sub tropical ridge becomes reestablished Saturday and Sunday, and extends into eastern Canada. With the strong ridge in place a weak shortwave moving through the flow Sunday will dampen and have little impact. Slightly above normal temperatures are expected for the upcoming weekend, along with increased humidity levels. Any storms that do develop Sunday will likely be well north of the region, along the northern edge of the high. With the progressive and nearly zonal flow, yet another shortwave moves into the region Monday. Once again with the subtropical ridge dominating the chances for precipitation will be mainly north of the area.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at the ocean beaches Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A weak sfc trough over the region will shift east this evening. VFR with W-NW flow for all but KISP an KGON, which will be more SW-S. KISP and KGON will become W-NW by 01-03z. Winds will remain NW overnight and into Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, the flow will turn more westerly right along the coast as seabreezes try to develop. If any seabreezes do develop, it will happen late, after 20z. Tuesday afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible, primarily NE of the NYC terminals. The best chance of any thunder right now will be at KGON.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Tuesday night. Mainly VFR, low chance of MVFR cigs late. Wednesday. MVFR cigs possible in the morning, otherwise VFR. Thursday and Friday. Chance of SHRA/TSRA with MVFR or lower conditions mainly Thursday night and Friday, otherwise VFR. Saturday. VFR.

MARINE. No changes to winds and seas at this time.

SCA continues E of Fire Island Inlet through tonight, and has been extended til 2 PM Tue E of Moriches Inlet, as 5-ft seas expected.

With high pressure across the forecast waters Wednesday into Thursday winds and seas will remain below SCA levels.

A frontal system impacts the waters Thursday night into Friday evening with the chance of thunderstorms. High pressure returns Saturday. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels across the forecast waters Thursday night through the upcoming weekend.

HYDROLOGY. No significant widespread rainfall expected through Sunday.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ353.

SYNOPSIS . Goodman/MET NEAR TERM . Goodman/MET SHORT TERM . Goodman LONG TERM . MET AVIATION . BC MARINE . Goodman/MET HYDROLOGY . Goodman/MET EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 18 mi64 min 69°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi64 min 71°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi64 min 77°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 36 mi32 min SW 12 G 16 73°F 1009.7 hPa71°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi64 min 73°F

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT18 mi77 minVar 510.00 miFair84°F68°F58%1008.8 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT18 mi56 minSSW 310.00 miFair78°F68°F71%1008 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY22 mi58 minSW 5 mi79°F69°F72%1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHTO

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW9SW6SW7SW5SW5SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5S7S5S8SW7S9SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Orient, Long Island Sound, New York
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Orient
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:54 AM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:24 AM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:32 PM EDT     2.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.21.61.92.12.22.11.81.51.20.90.60.711.522.42.62.62.42.11.81.40.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:58 AM EDT     1.81 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:17 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:18 AM EDT     -2.17 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:29 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:20 PM EDT     2.08 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:52 PM EDT     -2.37 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.40.71.51.81.610.3-0.7-1.6-2.1-2-1.4-0.50.51.5221.50.8-0.2-1.3-2.1-2.4-2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.