Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
East Marion, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 5:02PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 2:26 PM EST (19:26 UTC) Moonrise 10:20AMMoonset 9:44PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1237 Pm Est Tue Jan 28 2020
This afternoon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 1237 Pm Est Tue Jan 28 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A series of upper level disturbances will move across through this evening. High pressure will then build across through Thursday night, before moving offshore on Friday. There is then much uncertainty with a potential storm passing to the southeast on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Marion CDP, NY
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location: 41.17, -72.32     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 281827 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 127 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A series of upper level disturbances will move across into tonight. A cold front will also pass through this evening. High pressure will then gradually build in through Thursday night before moving offshore on Friday. There is then much uncertainty with a potential coastal low this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Again some slight adjustments with temperatures, dewpoints, and cloud coverage were made to better reflect current observed trends.

Downsloping NW flow proving to warm up temperatures a little more than previously forecast. Highs more in the low to mid 40s as a result accounting for this and a little more sun. Generally partly sunny conditions expected towards the coast and mostly cloudy inland.

Mid level shortwave moving farther southeast of the region with some brief ridging locally through mid afternoon will allow for scattering and thinning of clouds. However, expecting the clouds to increase and thicken again late this afternoon in advance of another shortwave from the northwest with a cold front approaching at the surface.

Mid level disturbances rotating around an upper low in the Canadian Maritimes, and mainly low level cyclonic flow with moisture trapped beneath an H8 inversion, will maintain a decent amount of cloud cover today.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. Sfc high pressure will build southward into the region tonight, with gradual clearing mainly after midnight, then a mostly sunny day on Wed. Low temps tonight should be in the 20s, perhaps some upper teens in some of the interior valleys, then high temps on Wed should be fairly close to those of today, with upper 30s/lower 40s expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. At the onset of the period, an upper trough will be pulling away from the Canadian maritimes, while ridging builds across the east as a trough begin to take shape over the mid section of the country. The latter of which poses a good deal of uncertainty for the upcoming weekend.

Before then though, high pressure builds across the northeast through Thursday night, before retreating offshore on Friday. Temperatures will be a shade below normal Thursday and then moderate into the upcoming weekend with highs around 40 and lows in the 20s inland to the lower 30s at the coast.

For days now, the global guidance has been bouncing around with the intensity and track of a coastal low that develops off the eastern seaboard Friday night into Saturday. Multiple streams within the southern branch itself and complex interaction between embedded shortwaves are producing a variety of solutions. Further compacting this interaction, is additional Pac shortwave energy moving into western Canada today. Overall though, the placement of the upper trough over the east this weekend is not too dissimilar amongst the guidance. The operational GFS is the deepest of the operational members and tracks the low just inside the 40N/70W benchmark on Saturday. The GEFS mean is farther offshore like GGEM and ECMWF, both of which also have a weaker wave passing to the south and east Friday night before the main low. For the time, have a low chance for rain or snow along the coast Friday night and again with the main low Saturday into Saturday night.

Another important fact here is the airmass is only marginally cold and the exact track will be critical in precipitation type. Even the GFS track, which is often favorable for snow at the coast, is supporting mainly rain at the onset with a transition to snow at the end.

Bottom line, it is much too early to be specific with any details at this time. Perhaps, as some of the Pac energy moves onshore today, we will begin to get more consensus in the guidance.

AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes slowly moves east as a large area of high pressure gradually builds in from the west.

VFR. BKN-OVC clouds 4-6 kft through this evening should gradually scatter and clear overnight.

NW winds prevail 10-15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. The gusts should end this around 21-23z. NW winds 5-10 kt continue tonight and then should average around 10 kt on Wednesday.

NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional at times this afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional at times this afternoon.

KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional at times this afternoon.

KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional at times this afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional at times this afternoon.

KISP TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional at times this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Wednesday through Friday night. VFR. Saturday. MVFR or lower possible in rain or snow. Sunday. Mainly VFR. Slight chance rain or snow. NW gusts 15-20 kt possible.

MARINE. Conditions remain below SCA levels into this evening, with winds gusting just over 20 kt and seas 4 ft on the ocean. Expect more tranquil conditions late tonight into Friday as high pressure builds in.

The next chance of SCA conditions should be over the weekend, with the potential of a coastal low impacting the waters. Uncertainty in track and intensity remains high.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through Friday.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Goodman/DW NEAR TERM . Goodman/JM SHORT TERM . Goodman LONG TERM . DW AVIATION . DS MARINE . Goodman/DW HYDROLOGY . Fig/DS EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 16 mi32 min NW 16 G 20 39°F 1004.4 hPa26°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 18 mi57 min 41°F 42°F1007 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi57 min 39°F 40°F1007.4 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi57 min 40°F 39°F1007.4 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 46 mi57 min 39°F 40°F1007.9 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT18 mi92 minNW 10 G 1710.00 miOvercast39°F24°F56%1007.4 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT18 mi91 minNNW 1210.00 miOvercast41°F26°F55%1007.1 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY22 mi33 minNW 9 mi42°F26°F53%1007.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHTO

Wind History from HTO (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Orient, Long Island Sound, New York
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Orient
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:00 AM EST     2.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:23 AM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:19 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:08 PM EST     2.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:50 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:44 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.11.71.30.90.50.20.30.71.31.82.22.42.31.91.410.50.100.30.91.41.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:31 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:27 AM EST     -2.74 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:36 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:23 AM EST     2.49 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 01:37 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:45 PM EST     -2.93 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:59 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:42 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:48 PM EST     2.53 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.70.7-0.7-1.9-2.7-2.6-1.9-0.80.51.72.42.41.70.7-0.5-1.8-2.7-2.9-2.3-1.301.32.32.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.