Friday, November22, 2019 L-36.com


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Marine Weather and Tides
Quonochontaug, RI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 4:24PM Friday November 22, 2019 3:28 PM EST (20:28 UTC) Moonrise 2:42AMMoonset 3:25PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 116 Pm Est Fri Nov 22 2019
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon and Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue and Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Est Fri Nov 22 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will move across the waters late this afternoon into this evening. Expecting gusty W winds to develop up to gale force. Another low pres passes by the our S this weekend, bringing another period of possible gales Sun. High pres builds back across the waters Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quonochontaug, RI
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location: 41.19, -71.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 221755 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1255 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front crosses the region this afternoon, bringing a period of light showers, along with falling temperatures and gusty northwest winds late this afternoon through tonight. Weak high pressure then settles over the area for Saturday. Low pressure will bring rain Saturday night and Sunday as it passes near Nantucket, with the possibility of light icing across the interior due to a wintry mix at the start. Dry weather follows Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. A cold front may bring showers Wednesday followed by dry but breezy weather on Thanksgiving.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 100 PM Update .

Cold front was on the doorstep of western MA at 1 pm. This front will sweep from W to E across SNE this afternoon, with winds becoming NW and gusty. POPs increased to likely/categorical for rain showers based on radar and observations. Looking at a window of 2-4 hrs of -SHRA activity for any given locale. It is possible across the highest terrain of the east slopes of the Berkshires, that precipitation may mix with or change over to -SHSN before ending. Little to no accumulation is expected.

Early morning discussion follows .

Though 850 mb temperatures are expected to climb into the +4 to +6C range, expecting mostly overcast skies to continue even in the wake of the warm frontal passage early this morning. That really cuts into the extent to which insolational heating can boost daytime temperatures before the front gets here. Will be looking for daytime highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s, warmest towards the South Shore, Cape Cod and the Islands. Will see SW winds increase with sustained winds 10-20 mph and around 20-30 mph in gusts. Pre-frontal mixing of stronger gusts doesn't look likely given shallow mixing depth capped by an inversion.

Guidance continues to show generally good agreement on a cold frontal passage between 17-23z CWA-wide. Have again noticed an uptick in model-derived QPF, especially near/south of the Mass Pike. Did opt to raise PoPs in this window towards solid Likely/low Categorical levels, but even with the increase in QPF, most areas will only see QPF amounts a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch, and the best chance of seeing rain amounts near that high is mainly SE of a BVY-ORH-HFD line.

The bigger concern is the resulting marked increase in northwesterly gusts both over the land and the waters, this roughly occurring in lockstep with quickly falling surface temperatures. Once the 850 mb front clears the forecast area, 850 mb temps crash to -5 to -8C by 00z Saturday. This contributes to very steep low-level lapse rates primed to tap into the 45-50 kt NWly low-level flow. Should see NW gusts of 30 to near 40 mph developing by late afternoon-early tonight across most of the land areas. However, wind gusts towards Cape Cod and the Islands may approach Wind Advisory levels with gusts 40-45 mph. Entertained the idea of a short- fused wind advisory for Cape Cod but thought it was somewhat marginal especially in the absence of leafed trees, and that could mitigate adverse impact. Temperatures are likely to fall back into the 30s to low 40s by early Friday evening, and with the winds we'll be looking at wind chills in the low 20s F across the Berkshires into northern Worcester County and into the hills in northern CT.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. Tonight:

Surface ridge builds into Southern New England affording clearing skies and dry weather, but continued very steep low- level lapse rates even overnight will still support a continuation of gusty winds well into the nighttime hrs. When factoring in that temperatures will continue sharply falling to lows in the 20s to near freezing, hard-pressed to really call it a good night to be outdoors as wind chills in the teens to low 20s. Will continue with gusts 30 to near 40 mph away from Cape Cod/Islands (and closer to 40-42 mph for there), and while wind gusts do subside slightly after midnight, they're still 20-30 mph and in the mid-upper 30s mph towards the Cape and Islands.

Saturday:

A pretty chilly start to Saturday, but will have plenty of sun Saturday to help boost temperatures. Mid to high clouds build in late in the day from SW to NE but overall a clear to mostly sunny day with highs upper 30s to mid 40s. Will see winds/gusts continue to lighten considerably through the day and eventually become S/SW 5-10 mph late as high pressure builds off the mid- Atlantic coast.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Highlights .

* Rain Saturday night and Sunday, starting as a wintry mix interior. * Dry and seasonable Monday and Tuesday * Milder with scattered showers Wednesday * Dry but breezy and cooler Thanksgiving Day

Active pattern continues over weekend as southern stream trough rotates through New England, as its associated surface low tracks near Sunday. Broad trough then develops across much of CONUS next week as a northern stream short wave rotates through region Wednesday.

We continue to focus on the potential hazards associated with low pressure which is forecast to pass near Nantucket Sunday:

Interior Light Icing:

Confidence is increasing for the potential of slippery travel across interior SNE Saturday night into Sunday morning due to a wintry mix.

Keep in mind there is still a good amount of spread among EC/GFS ensemble members, showing low tracks anywhere from SE New England to a little farther east of Nantucket. Despite the range in track of surface low, which is tied to it being captured by 500 mb low, overall pattern still looks on the warm side with a lack of high pressure and cold air to the north, so the potential for any significant snow or ice across the interior remains low.

Temperature profiles and ensemble probabilities suggest rain for most of SNE for this event. That said, there are hints of cold air damming across western and north central Massachusetts, and possibly into NW Hartford County, CT which is where models show possibility of light icing Saturday night into Sunday morning, before milder air eventually scours out the low level cold and causes a change to rain. Even in a "worst case" scenario, snowfall amounts would only be around an inch with around 0.10" of icing.

Minor Coastal Flood potential for Sunday/Sunday Night . See Tides/Coastal Flooding section of this discussion.

Beyond the weekend, high pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather Monday and Tuesday. An approaching cold front will bring a milder day Wednesday along with scattered showers. Behind the front, dry but breezy and cooler weather is forecast for Thanksgiving Day.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Saturday/ . High confidence.

18z TAF Update:

Thru 00Z this evening .

VFR CIGS for most of the period. However, as showers along/ahead of a cold front sweep from W to E from 18-23Z, an brief period of MVFR CIGs is possible. With WNW-NW wind shift, wind gusts increase to 25 to near 35 kt, except 35 to near 40 kt gusts on Cape Cod/Nantucket.

Tonight .

VFR with continued strong NW gusts for most of the night as much colder air filters in. Early wind gusts 25-35 kt in the interior, to 30-near 40 kt for coastal MA/Cape Cod and Nantucket and the waters. Wind gusts gradually decrease after 04Z.

Saturday .

VFR under high pressure. High clouds approach late. NW winds become W-WSW and subside through the day, though will still gust to 20-25 kt into mid-morning hrs especially eastern MA and the Cape/Islands.

KBOS TAF . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/ .

Saturday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 35 kt.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, chance FZRA.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely, FZRA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR.

MARINE. Short Term /through Saturday/ . Moderate confidence.

Gale warnings remain in effect for all waters. Winds will continue to increase on all waters to SCA levels through the morning, with building seas especially southern waters. Looking at gale-force W to NW winds then settling in around mid- afternoon and continuing into the overnight hours as colder air races across the waters behind a strong cold front. Subsiding trends to winds and seas into Saturday.

Today: SW winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 kts thru early afternoon. Wind shift to NW and increase to 15-25 kt with gusts 35-40 kt on most waters toward late afternoon into early evening, on the lower end of that range in Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay. Seas build to 4-8 ft southern waters early, building late to 4-6 ft for eastern waters.

Tonight: NWly gale conditions on all waters tonight. General improvement trend after midnight, with winds/gusts diminishing to SCA levels earliest on the bays/harbors, longer in eastern offshore waters. Seas 5-10 ft, highest southeastern waters, with lowering trend to seas nearest the coasts.

Saturday: Early-day SCA winds/gusts on eastern offshore waters, diminishing to 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts late Saturday. Steady fall in seas to 3-5 ft.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/ .

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Rain likely.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING.

Sunday/Sunday night .

Even though we are coming into a period of high astronomical tides, we are a bit less confident with the potential for coastal flooding due to uncertainty in the track of the surface low, which will determine wind direction/fetch as well as timing of the highest surge (does it coincide with high tide)?

For the Sunday morning high tide, it looks like both the east and south coasts may be impacted due to expected E/SE flow. Expecting a storm surge of 1.0 to 1.5 ft which may cause minor flooding (less than one foot inundation AGL) of vulnerable shore roads.

Times and heights of high tide (MLLW) Sunday morning are: * Providence: 541 AM, 5.7 ft * Boston: 845 AM, 11.2 ft * Nantucket: 946 AM, 3.9 ft

For the Sunday evening high tide, the focus will be on the eastern MA coast including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket as winds are from the N/NE. Storm surge will be a little higher than the morning high tide, on the order of around 2.0 ft, which would bring another possible round of minor flooding (up to one foot inundation AGL) to vulnerable shore roads. Wind direction favors the coastline from Plymouth County to the Bay side of Cape Cod as well as the Islands.

Seas offshore are forecast to reach 4 to 7 feet, so beach erosion would be minimal.

Times and heights of high tide (MLLW) Sunday evening are: * Boston: 917 PM, 10.5 ft * Nantucket: 1024 PM, 3.2 ft

EQUIPMENT.

KBOX WSR-88D has returned to service.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Gale Warning until 3 AM EST Saturday for ANZ231>235-237-251. Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ250-254. Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for ANZ255-256.

SYNOPSIS . Loconto/JWD NEAR TERM . Loconto/NMB/JWD SHORT TERM . Loconto LONG TERM . JWD AVIATION . Loconto/NMB/JWD MARINE . Loconto/JWD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Staff EQUIPMENT . Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 22 mi59 min 50°F 49°F1003.2 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 26 mi59 min WSW 16 G 18 51°F 46°F1001.7 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 28 mi59 min 56°F9 ft
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 28 mi44 min W 23 G 28 50°F 1000.7 hPa48°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 29 mi59 min W 5.1 G 13 50°F 51°F1002.8 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 29 mi59 min WSW 12 G 18 47°F1002.1 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 32 mi89 min SW 26 G 28 53°F 1002.2 hPa (-3.9)
PRUR1 32 mi59 min 51°F 47°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi104 min WSW 12 52°F 1002 hPa45°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi59 min W 8 G 14 50°F 1002.5 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 38 mi59 min WSW 12 G 14 50°F 48°F1002.1 hPa
FRXM3 41 mi59 min 51°F 47°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi59 min WSW 17 G 20 51°F 1001.8 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi59 min 51°F 48°F1002.2 hPa
PVDR1 42 mi59 min WSW 9.9 G 17 51°F 1002.3 hPa46°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi59 min W 7 G 12 51°F 47°F1002.4 hPa

Wind History for Newport, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Block Island State Airport, RI1 mi93 minSW 20 G 2610.00 miLight Rain and Breezy52°F48°F86%1002.8 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI16 mi36 minWSW 10 G 195.00 miLight Rain51°F46°F83%1002.7 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY20 mi35 minW 10 G 17 mi51°F46°F86%1003.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBID

Wind History from BID (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Block Island (Great Salt Pond), Rhode Island
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Block Island (Great Salt Pond)
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:38 AM EST     2.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:42 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:25 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:03 PM EST     2.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:01 PM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.62.32.82.92.51.810.40.100.20.61.21.92.52.82.621.20.4-0-0.2-0

Tide / Current Tables for Moonstone Beach, Rhode Island
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Moonstone Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:45 AM EST     3.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:13 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:24 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:11 PM EST     3.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:30 PM EST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.62.433.12.821.20.50.1-0.1-00.41.11.92.732.92.31.40.60-0.3-0.3

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (15,3,4,5)
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