Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Quonochontaug, RI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday July 9, 2020 4:07 AM EDT (08:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:29PMMoonset 9:44AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 116 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
Rest of tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Showers and tstms likely. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night and Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night and Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Thu Jul 9 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will slowly settle over the waters late this afternoon. Strengthening low pressure will move up along the carolina coast late Thursday and passing near cape cod on Saturday. A cold front will cross the waters early Sunday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quonochontaug, RI
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location: 41.19, -71.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 090805 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 405 AM EDT Thu Jul 9 2020

SYNOPSIS.

Hot and humid weather is on tap today along with an isolated afternoon shower/thunderstorm possible, but the majority of the region will remain dry. A coastal low with tropical moisture is being given an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical or sub- tropical system later today or tonight from the National Hurricane Center. This will likely impact the region late Friday into Saturday with heavy rain, potential flooding, and perhaps isolated severe weather which all depend on the exact track and strength of the system. Beyond Saturday things remain unsettled with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances through the first half of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

4 AM Update .

* Hot & Humid with Heat Indices Between 95 and 99 this afternoon

Deep low level moisture in place has resulted in low clouds across portions of the south coast with another area across central MA/northeast CT early this morning. The strong July sun angle will erode most of these low clouds by mid to late morning, yielding partly to mostly sunny skies by afternoon.

The main story will be the hot and humid weather that is in store for the region today. Upper level ridge builds across southern New England with 925T between +22C and +24C. This combined with partly to mostly sunny skies should yield high temps in the upper 80s to the lower 90s this afternoon. This combined with dewpoints around 70 will result in heat index values between 95 and 99 degrees away from the immediate coast. While it appears that conditions will fall just below heat advisory criteria, it will be a hot and humid day for sure.

The upper level ridging in place will result in most of the region remaining dry today, but there is an isolated shower/t-storm risk this afternoon. Modest instability will develop with capes expected to increase to between 1500 and 2500 J/KG. While lack of synoptic forcing/upper level ridging will limit areal coverage and intensity of the convection, isolated showers and t-storms are still expected to develop this afternoon. This will mainly be induced by terrain and sea breeze interactions with the best chance near and north of the MA Turnpike, where instability should be highest. The severe weather threat will remain low given very weak wind fields, but very localized torrential rainfall will be possible with any storm given slow movement.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/.

Tonight .

Any isolated shower/t-storm threat will diminish by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating and lack of synoptic scale forcing. Otherwise, we do expect low clouds to expand across the region along with patches of fog as the boundary layer cools. Given the high dewpoints in place, low temps will only drop into the upper 60s to near 70.

Friday .

All the focus will turn to low pressure that is currently just east of the North Carolina coast. This system is expected to gradually become better organized later today and tonight. The National Hurricane Center has increased the probability of this system becoming tropical or a sub-tropical cyclone to 80 percent. The system/s track and timing remain uncertain. The American models seem to be faster and also further west than the International guidance. That being said, still expect the main impacts in our region to hold off until Friday night. Nonetheless, the system/s outer circulation coupled with high Pwats will trigger bands of showers with locally heavy rainfall and perhaps isolated thunder during the day Friday. This will keep high temps mainly in the 80s Friday, but it will remain humid.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/.

Highlights .

* Tropical humidity persists into weekend * Potential for flash flooding from heavy rain Friday-Saturday * Some drying next week and turning warmer

Overall pattern should feature troughing over eastern states through early next week which will help maintain summer like pattern with more of a tropical feel as moisture streams up from south. Eventually by middle of next week, ensembles seem to be favoring return of upper ridge across most of the East which will bring somewhat drier but potentially hot weather.

Main concern is potential for tropical cyclone formation off NC/SC coast during next day or two. Latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook indicates a 70% chance of this low becoming a tropical (or subtropical) cyclone as it tracks NNE and up along the East Coast, either hugging the coastline or tracking a little offshore Friday into Saturday. It should be noted that overall confidence with track and strength of this system remains very low at this time for SNE.

Regardless of the track, main impact from this system is not expected to be from wind (although gusty winds are possible near coast and on coastal waters) but from flash flooding due to heavy rainfall. Plume of tropical moisture will bring PWATs over 2" and many of the ensemble parameters associated with excessive rainfall are at last in 90th percentile when compared with climatology. Due to uncertainties in this system's formation and eventual track, there is high uncertainty as to where heaviest rain will fall. We do think most of SNE will receive 1-2" of rain on average but there is certainly the potential for locally higher amounts.

Other potential impact is increased risk of rip currents Friday through weekend, especially at south coastal beaches. Risk of coastal flooding is low due to relatively low astronomical tides.

Beyond Saturday, we should dry out a bit as we lose tropical humidity but typical summertime weather should prevail into early next week, before potentially another round of hot weather arrives by mid week.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z Update .

Today . High confidence. Low clouds near the south coast with another area across interior MA/northern CT was resulting in low end MVFR-IFR ceilings early this morning. The strong July sun angle should erode most of these low clouds by mid-late morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions dominate today. Isolated showers/t-storms are possible this afternoon, but areal coverage will be limited and most of the region will remain dry. SSW winds of 5 to 10 knots with seas breezes expected to develop along portions of the eastern MA coast by afternoon.

Tonight . Moderate confidence. Cooling boundary coupled with deep low level moisture will allow MVFR-IFR conditions to overspread much of the region from south to north as the night wears along.

Friday . Moderate confidence. Conditions may temporarily improve to mainly VFR Fri morning as low clouds/fog patches burn off. However, the threat for bands of showers and perhaps isolated t-storms will increase during the day Friday. This will likely lower conditions back towards MVFR thresholds in many locations by late afternoon. SE winds increase to 10 to 15 knots.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF. Sea breeze will develop by 15z or 16z.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA, TSRA likely.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, chance TSRA.

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

MARINE.

Today and tonight . High confidence. Upper level ridging will keep winds/seas below SCA thresholds.

Friday . Moderate confidence. Low pressure off the North Carolina coast is expected to become better organized and the NHC is giving an 80 percent probability that it becomes a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone as it lifts north northeastward. Timing and intensity remain uncertain, but SCA seas are expected to develop during the day Friday across our southern waters. Bands of showers and isolated t- storms may also begin to impact the region especially as the day wears along.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers, thunderstorms likely. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Sunday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/BW NEAR TERM . Frank SHORT TERM . Frank LONG TERM . BW AVIATION . Frank/BW MARINE . Frank/BW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 22 mi49 min 71°F 68°F1015.6 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 26 mi49 min SSW 7 G 8 71°F 65°F1015.3 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 28 mi41 min 69°F2 ft
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 29 mi49 min SSW 4.1 G 6 74°F 67°F1014.9 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 29 mi49 min SW 7 G 8.9 74°F 73°F1015.4 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 32 mi67 min SW 8.9 G 9.9 1016.4 hPa (+0.4)
PRUR1 32 mi49 min 73°F 73°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi82 min WSW 4.1 73°F 1015 hPa72°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi49 min W 4.1 G 6 74°F 1016 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 38 mi49 min 74°F 75°F1015.3 hPa
FRXM3 41 mi49 min 74°F 72°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 42 mi147 min S 9.7 G 14 73°F 1015.6 hPa72°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi49 min SW 9.9 G 12 75°F 1015.4 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi49 min 74°F 74°F1015.8 hPa
PVDR1 42 mi49 min S 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 1015.5 hPa72°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi49 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 74°F 73°F1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Newport, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Block Island State Airport, RI1 mi71 minSW 810.00 miFair70°F69°F97%1015.7 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI16 mi74 minno data9.00 miOvercast77°F69°F77%1015.5 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY20 mi73 minSW 3 mi74°F72°F94%1015.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBID

Wind History from BID (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE5SE7SE7SE8SE7E8E8E9SE9SE12SE12SE9SE10SE8SE7SE6E8SE8S10S10S8S8S8S9
2 days agoCalmCalmNW3N4NE5NE12NE10NE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Block Island (Great Salt Pond), Rhode Island
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Block Island (Great Salt Pond)
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:08 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:42 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:14 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.31.50.80.40.20.30.611.52.12.62.62.31.71.10.60.40.50.711.522.5

Tide / Current Tables for Moonstone Beach, Rhode Island
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Moonstone Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:41 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:47 AM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:49 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.61.81.10.50.20.20.40.81.52.22.72.92.621.30.80.50.40.60.91.52.12.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.