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FXUS65 KSLC 092218 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 318 PM MST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds into the region for the weekend.
Afterwards, several shortwaves will keep inversions from becoming well established. Little moisture will be available for these waves, so expect mostly dry conditions through the period.

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Monday)...Visible satellite shows skies have mostly cleared across northern Utah. This will allow temperatures to plummet this evening with lows in the teens and 20s statewide as well as single digits across higher terrain.
Light winds tomorrow morning will create very cold wind chills.
Additionally, patchy fog will be possible across northern valleys tomorrow morning.

A strengthening, albeit short-lived, ridge with 700 mb warm air advection will allow temperatures to climb to near normal levels tomorrow afternoon. Cloud cover will increase across northern Utah as a shortwave approaches from the PNW. Most of the moisture associated with this shortwave will be confined to Idaho, however a stray shower is possible near the Idaho border and across the mountains of northern Utah tomorrow afternoon and evening. The most notable change from this shortwave will be to turn over our airmass and prevent inversion conditions from becoming well established. Cloud cover will be more prominent statewide on Sunday night which will prevent temperatures from getting as cold.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Monday)...The beginning of the extended period will have a landfalling AR, in the Pac NW region, as well as a shortwave move through the Great Basin region. Moisture from this AR will reach into southern Idaho and even into far northern Utah on Monday. The shortwave will help to push this moisture southward into central Utah by Tuesday. Since the aforementioned shortwave is not that strong, there will not be a whole lot of synoptic lift in combination with the available moisture. With that being said, most of the precipitation that could fall will more than likely be orographically enhanced. Not much is expected in the way of snow for the mountains but some slight chances for snow are possible across much of the mountains through Tuesday.
Temperatures on Monday will range from around 5F above normal across northern Utah to 5F to 10F above normal for southern Utah.

Heading into Wednesday, uncertainty continues for what will happen with regards to the shortwave that moves through on Tuesday.
Ensembles are beginning to favor the solution where the shortwave closes off and becomes a cutoff low somewhere over Utah.
Deterministic guidance has also honed in on this scenario. Another thing to note is that this cutoff low appears to linger over the area through Thursday. Since there is not much moisture and cold air with this system, the weather pattern is not expected to change much from a day to day perspective. Something to keep in mind with where this cutoff low goes, downsloping winds may become a factor. This cutoff low scenario is going to be something to continue to monitor as we get closer to the middle of next week.

AVIATION
KSLC...Low cumulus and stratus clouds will diminish into the evening. Mostly clear conditions are forecast overnight. Clouds will build from the north through the morning, with broken to overcast ceilings in VFR range most of the day. Clouds will be low enough for mountain obscuration. Light southeast winds will last into the afternoon, with more uncertainty by around 19-20Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Mostly clear conditions are forecast through the overnight. Clouds will build from the north through the morning, with broken to overcast ceilings in VFR range most of the day. Prior to that, patchy fog with MVFR or lower ceilings and visibility could occur around sunrise at KLGU and KHCR.
Light snow showers in the higher elevations will bring mountain obscuration to southwest Wyoming and northern Utah. Southern Utah will be dry with scattered or broken clouds in VFR range.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.

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