Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ogden, UT

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6am Wednesday)...A broad low is currently centered over northwest Utah this morning, with associated shower activity concentrated around the center of the low. The Eagle View station (KU16) west of the GSL and in the vicinity of what looks to be the heaviest showers on radar, has reported some periodic graupel with the showers. The low is expected to track southeast during the day before exiting the area Monday night. Thus, associated showers will continue throughout the day. Though the focus will remain around the center of the low, daytime heating will allow for some additional develop elsewhere, primarily focused over the higher terrain. In the wake of the trough, temperatures will tend to run up to 5F below normal for this time of year, a change from the mild weather the area has seen lately.

Shortwave ridging is expected to develop over the area for much of Tuesday, allowing for a noticeable warming trend in temperatures.
Maxes are on track to warm to near or just above seasonal normals with conditions staying dry.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6am Wednesday)...A shortwave trough and associated baroclinic zone will be positioned in northern Utah early Wednesday. Valley rain and mountain snow above roughly 8000 feet are likely near the boundary. With daytime warming, showers and thunderstorms will develop, most commonly in the mountains.

As the boundary tracks south, the trough will likely split, resulting in a nearly stationary frontal boundary in the southern half of Utah and a closed low to the southwest. Drier conditions will build in fast behind the front, with most precipitation near it. For southwest Wyoming and northern Utah, much of that will be through the morning. Further south, closer to where the boundary stalls, precipitation will linger longer with assistance from the closed low to the southwest. That will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon around higher terrain, Thursday and Friday. The shortwave trough will lower temperatures to around 5F cooler than normal throughout southwest Wyoming and northern Utah, while conditions will be slightly warmer than normal for southern Utah.

Dry, mostly clear conditions are likely for southwest Wyoming and northern Utah Thursday and Friday, with showery precipitation for southern Utah. Temperatures will warm to around 5-10F warmer than normal. Those systems will exit Saturday as southwest flow enhances.
A longwave trough tracking into the western U.S. will bring the stronger winds. There is good confidence that Saturday will be windy, especially for southern Utah, while showers could build in with upper diffluence east of the trough axis.

There is more uncertainty later in the weekend on timing and track of the longwave trough, but this system will bring sufficient forcing and moisture for rain and snow for much of the region.

AVIATION
KSLC...Scattered rain showers through around 12Z could alter wind direction, but winds will prevail from the southeast. A transition to light northwest winds is likely around 16Z. Dry conditions will prevail through the day, with around a 20% chance for a rain shower from 21-00Z.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Scattered showers, particularly around higher terrain, will last much of the day. VFR conditions will prevail for most locations, but snow showers will be capable of lowering conditions into MVFR or IFR range. Showers will diminish around 00Z. Winds will prevail from the northwest with relatively light speeds. Gusts around 20 knots are likely for southwest Wyoming and southern Utah from 18-00Z.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...None.
WY...None.