Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Saybrook Manor, CT

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Weak high pressure keeps the region primarily dry overnight.
Only a low chance that some rainfall sneaks in well NW of the city toward daybreak ahead of the next storm system to impact the area. At the least, expect an increase of cloud cover. Winds will be light, with temperatures above normal.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
For Sunday, shortwave energy rotating about a polar vortex near James Bay in eastern Canada will interact with energy in the southern branch of the polar jet, carving out a longwave trough over the eastern half of the country. This will send a surge of much colder air southward behind developing low pressure over the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic states. As the primary low lifts W of the Appalachians on Sunday, a warm front will approach from the south, with secondary cyclogenesis taking place off the NJ coast late in the afternoon, followed by a cold frontal passage late Sunday night.

Rain chances increase through the day on Sunday. Looks like most spots get through the morning rain-free, but rain eventually begins primarily in the afternoon generally south to north, driven by forcing associated with secondary low center to our south. NBM looks too slow ramping up PoPs, so timing is based more on CAM's and global model QPF. Still can't rule out an isolated rumble of thunder in the vicinity of eastern Long Island with stronger forcing via a nearby low level jet interacting with a little elevated instability. The secondary low then shifts north through the area with mid levels drying and with weaker lift for roughly the first half of the night.
Areas of light rain or drizzle anticipated during this time. The trailing cold front then shifts west to east across the area during the second half of the night. Its forward motion will be slow as the longwave trough axis associated with the storm becomes neutrally tilted. And even after the cold front exits east Monday morning, there will still be plenty of lift through the day with mid level shortwaves rotating through and perhaps upper divergence with a strengthening jet streak approaching.
Models even suggest yet another wave of low pressure developing along the front and shifting northward through the eastern zones. Showers therefore still likely across eastern Long Island and SE CT Monday morning, and even into part of the afternoon for some spots. A chance of showers otherwise for the rest of the forecast area, mainly in the morning.

Above normal temperatures for Sunday and Sunday night will cool off to a little below normal daytime Monday, then colder Monday night, with low from the mid 20s well inland to the mid 30s in the city. Freeze warnings will probably be needed for spots where the growing season has not yet ended.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Key points:

* Well below normal temperatures continue Tuesday with highs in the 40s.

* Temperatures moderate for Tuesday night through the upcoming weekend, however, temperatures remain slightly below seasonal normals.

* Fast moving frontal systems move through early Tuesday, another Wednesday, and a weak trough Thursday. Any precipitation with the systems will be light.

* Brisk westerly flow likely Tuesday through Thursday, and leaned toward the 90th percentile for gusts. Winds remain below advisory criteria.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A wave of low pressure along a warm front approaches from the south into Sunday, moving through Sunday Night.

Mainly VFR through the overnight, with low chance for MVFR/IFR cigs developing into the morning, mainly for KSWF, ahead of approaching warm front. More widespread MVFR conds likely develop Sunday afternoon with shower activity. Low probability of sparse tsra across eastern terminals late Sunday afternoon and early evening and continue to omit from TAF. IFR conditions possible Sun eve/night with drizzle, showers, mist, though this may be more occasional.
Additional shower activity may move through behind the system late Sunday night into Monday AM.

Light E flow develops overnight, with E/SE winds 10-15G20KT by late morning, persisting through the day. Gusts may be more occasional.
Winds lighten for a period in the evening, potentially becoming variable, before becoming W/NW late Sun Night into Mon AM.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts on Sunday may be more occasional at times.

Timing of declining categories on Sunday may be off by a couple of hours and amendments likely in the afternoon and evening.

Uncertainty in extent and duration of IFR conds Sunday night.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

Late Sunday Night: W winds increase. MVFR conditions expected, with IFR possible, in drizzle and showers.

Monday: Chance of rain and MVFR early, improving to VFR. NW-W winds G15-20kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G25-35kt.

Wednesday: VFR. WSW winds G25-30kt.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G25-35kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Buoy obs at 9 PM running higher than fcst (4.3 ft at 44065 SE of the NY Harbor entrance and 5.6 ft at 44097 SE of Block Island) warrant SCA extension for the ocean E of Fire Island Inlet until 3 AM. The lull below 5 ft late tonight into Sunday morning will be short lived as winds shift onshore and seas begin to ramp up, with marginal SCA cond on the ocean (seas 5 ft and wind gusts up to 25 kt) Sunday afternoon, possibly lingering into early evening.

Lighter winds expected for Sunday night with the flow shifting offshore, then winds pick up once again as the pressure gradient tightens behind a cold front on Monday. Advisory conditions look probable on the ocean by midday as well as across some of the non- ocean waters by the end of the day. Solid advisory conditions are then expected on all waters Monday night.

And extended period of hazardous marine conditions are likely Tuesday through Thursday night with at least SCA conditions across all the forecast waters. Gale force gusts will be possible on the ocean waters Tuesday through Thursday, with gale force gusts possible on the non ocean waters Tuesday.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Lingering high astronomical tides following a recent full moon and modest SE winds ahead of an approaching frontal system will likely provide just enough of a surge (3/4 to 1 ft) to produce brief minor coastal flooding for the most vulnerable coastal areas of southern Nassau county and coastal SW CT during the Sun AM/early PM high tides.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST early this morning for ANZ350-353.