Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Clinton, CT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A cold front was moving across the region front the north at 23Z Thursday, and will continue to sag to the south through this Thursday evening. With showers/thunderstorms very isolated, and the few over Eastern Pennsylvania, and Western New Jersey will be moving into an increasingly more stable airmass as surface and mix layer CAPE will be decreasing through the early evening.
Adjusted the probabilities based on this, keeping slight chance probs to the west, and lowering/removing slight chance probs farther to the east, and then removing the slight chances for the overnight as the front will be to the south of the region.

Forecast soundings continue to show a mid level cap and overall the forcing with the front is very weak. If a storm does develop, it would likely contain strong gusty winds with solid DCAPE values, along with the potential for hail. Kept a 15 percent probability for the western portion of the area during the early evening. Temperatures overnight will average close to or just above the seasonal norms with mainly 60s for lows.

Questions remain abound for the day Friday. The cold front which is progged to move through Thursday night is not progged to get very far to the south and is expected to stall nearby, perhaps just to the immediate south. At the same time high pressure attempts to ridge down, at least temporary from the northwest before the next impulse attempts to approach from the west towards late in the day and evening. Also the upper level jet gets further downstream to the northeast as the region should get in-between any mid and upper level support / forcing mechanisms. Low end chance to slight chance PoPs appear prudent for the day Friday, although the consensus of NWP guidance keeps the region dry much of the day. More of an onshore flow is expected into Friday afternoon with some uncertainty as to how much the onshore flow can penetrate into western most areas.
With some cloud cover and more of an onshore flow temperatures should be cooler with mainly upper half of the 70s to lower 80s for daytime highs.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
During Friday night with the frontal boundary stalled nearby and perhaps just south of the area expect disturbances to more or less ride along the boundary. Occasional showers looks to take place during Friday night. The column is forecast to saturate further into later in the overnight and into early Saturday morning. Instability appears to be limited Friday night into Saturday, thus will carry high end chance to low end likely PoPs for weather across the region late Friday night into Saturday morning. During the day Saturday it doesn't appear to be a complete washout, as after the disturbance from the morning gets through most NWP guidance suggests a relative break or pause in any shower activity. Thus, have included low end chance PoPs Saturday afternoon. Suffice it to say that the start of the weekend will feature more in the way of clouds, with a period or two of unsettled weather with the potential for showers. With the onshore flow progged to continue on Saturday with a E-ENE wind in the boundary layer expect temperatures to average below normal. Max temperatures will likely only reach the upper 60s to perhaps some lower and middle lower 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
No significant changes were made to the long term Saturday night through next Thursday.

Key Points:

*While there is a chance for showers through the period, it will not be a complete washout.

*Difficult to time waves of low pressure and moisture interactions with the stalled boundary to our south will ultimately determine when/if showers occur across parts of the area Saturday night through early next week.

*The stalled boundary starts retreated northward later Tuesday through Thursday continuing the chance for showers, possibly a thunderstorm.

*Temperatures will average below normal Sunday and Monday then return to more seasonably warm levels Tuesday with potential of warmer than normal conditions mid to late week.

The region will lie on the southern periphery of the westerlies for much of the long term period with ridging holding across the southern US. A frontal boundary will remain stalled across the Middle Atlantic. The main forecast challenge Saturday night through Monday will be from difficult to time waves of low pressure on the stalled front as well as an subtle shortwaves in the middle level flow. Surface ridging will also try to take hold over the area, which may limit how much shower activity can develop. Model trends have been leaning in this direction, especially for Sunday into Monday with increasing chances for mostly dry conditions. The upper ridging may start building along the eastern seaboard Tuesday and Wednesday allowing the boundary to lift back to the north as a warm front. A more organized shortwave may then start approaching towards next Thursday which may also bring in another cold front, but this remains uncertain given it is a week out.

Rainfall amounts and any impacts appear limited at this time with any greater chance of convection potentially occurring mid week as conditions warm up and instability starts increasing. There will likely be adjustments to PoPs and timing of any potential convection once the mesoscale environment becomes better resolved.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A weak cold front was south of the region, and will become nearly stationary overnight into Friday.

VFR. There is a slight chance of showers early Friday morning, mainly just south of the area, along the stalled frontal boundary.

Light northwest to north winds become northerly throughout by late tonight, outlying terminals becoming light and variable. A light east to southeast flow develops Friday morning.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday evening: VFR.

Friday overnight-Saturday: MVFR/IFR with chance of showers.

Sunday: MVFR with showers possible.

Monday: Chance of showers and MVFR/IFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub advisory conditions are anticipated for all waters through the first half of the weekend. Ocean seas generally hold at 2 to 3 ft with a relaxed pressure gradient and a light onshore flow. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels from Saturday night through next Tuesday with a weak pressure gradient in place.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The rip current risk is low on Friday with a light easterly flow and limited swell. There is a moderate rip current risk on Saturday with increasing easterly flow and building seas 3 to 4 ft.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179.
NJ...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ004-006- 103>108.
MARINE...None.