Fenwick, CT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fenwick, CT

June 19, 2024 4:34 AM EDT (08:34 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:15 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM
Moonrise 6:32 PM   Moonset 2:59 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ332 Long Island Sound East Of The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 1054 Pm Edt Tue Jun 18 2024

Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 3 seconds and se 1 ft at 8 seconds.

Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds and se 1 ft at 9 seconds.

Wed night - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 3 seconds and se 1 ft at 9 seconds.

Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 1 ft at 8 seconds.

Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 1 ft at 8 seconds.

Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 3 seconds and se 1 ft at 8 seconds. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.

Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.

Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.

Sat night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.

Sun - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.

Sun night - SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 1054 Pm Edt Tue Jun 18 2024

Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure over the western atlantic remains in control through late this week. A cold front moves in from northwest on Friday and stalls over the area to begin the weekend. The front then moves back north as a warm front on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fenwick, CT
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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 190749 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 349 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the western Atlantic remains in control through late this week. A cold front moves in from northwest on Friday and remains over the region Saturday, then lifts north as a warm front Sunday. A cold front approaches for Monday and moves through Monday night. High pressure returns on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The setup looks similar to yesterday with a 500mb low overhead and high pressure ridging in from the east. Subsidence from this combination should be able to ward off any shower development in the forecast area or weaken anything trying to approach from the north and west.

Comparing the boundary layer for today versus yesterday, expecting slightly warmer afternoon temps at the top of the layer with overall somewhat drier conditions through the layer. Surface wind directions looks similar to yesterday, but a little weaker. Combining all of these factors, anticipating the overall distribution of heat indices to be fairly similar to what was observed yesterday. Will leave headlines unchanged, although between what happened yesterday and what's expected for today and Thursday, the 2-day criteria for advisories will probably not be met for some zones. Heat indices top out in the 95-100 range for portions within the advised area.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
High pressure weakens over the region on Thursday with the approach of a cold front. The front may reach some of the northernmost zones of the forecast area by sundown. Have included a slight chance of a shower/TSTM for some of these northern zones in the afternoon and evening. Shear is pretty weak, so any TSTM that manages to make it here probably remains sub-severe.

850mb temps rise slightly to 18-20C for Thursday, so high temperatures expected to be a couple of degrees warmer than today.
Dewpoints could have a difficult time mixing out across the northern zones, being closer to moisture convergence and where 850mb temps will be higher than the rest of the area. Other spots away from sea breezes could see surface dewpoints mixing out by a few degrees in the afternoon. While the coverage of heat indices of 95+ will be more widespread, no areas currently not under a heat advisory are forecast to meet the 2-day criteria. There could be spotty instances of heat indices reaching 95 in NYC and southern Westchester, but it's not looking widespread.

The cold front sags farther into the forecast area Thursday night and is progged to remain over us during the day Friday. Showers and thunderstorms likely fire up along the front during the day with the better overall chances of rain across the Lower Hudson Valley and CT. Once again, shear doesn't look too impressive, so severe wx doesn't look like much of a threat at this time. However, PWATs may climb to around 2 inches, and with a relatively weak steering flow, slow moving storms training along the cold front introduce a chance of flash flooding. See the hydrology section below for more details.

As for temperatures and heat indices, high temps from the deterministic NBM seem too warm, moreso across northern zones where 850mb temps are progged at around 17-18C and have a better chance of a mostly cloudy afternoon with rainfall. Warmer temps aloft will be found across the southern zones, but the threat of afternoon cloud cover and showers spilling in, as well as a chance of sea breeze development, make the surface temperature and dewpoint forecasts tricky. The current forecast has heat indices of 95+ mostly in NE NJ and adjacent areas. Given the uncertainty and lack of widespread criteria met during the Thursday-Friday period, no expansion of advisories in time and area are being made at this time.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
**Key Points**

* The warm and humid conditions continue into the weekend with the warmest day on Sunday. A chance of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

* The humidity gets broken late Monday into Tuesday, with another round of showers and thunderstorms.

A frontal system will remain over the region Saturday, with mostly cloudy conditions expected along with chance for showers and thunderstorms. This should help keep temperatures in the 80s areawide. It will however remain rather humid with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70.

By Saturday night into Sunday morning the warm front lifts north and puts our areas purely in the warm sector. Expect Sunday to be the warmest day of the weekend with temperatures in the 80s and lower 90s. Dew points in the 70s will make heat index values reach 80s and 90s, with a few spots in NJ coming close to 100. Questions remain around the timing of a lead shortwave / pre-frontal trough ahead of the main mid / upper level shortwave feature for late Sunday.
Thought it prudent to at least carry chance PoPs, especially further NW for later Sunday as things destabilize through the day. The primary threats for any storms later Sunday would likely be strong winds and heavy rain. The main shortwave / trough then pivots through into Monday as a stronger cold front pushes through with the ongoing chance of convection. By Monday night into Tuesday things should improve from west to east, with less humid conditions with clearing skies. It will still be quite warm on Tuesday with increased mixing and downsloping on a westerly component to the wind, but the humidity should be lower.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure remains over the Western Atlantic through midweek.

VFR conditions through the TAF period with winds remaining from the south to southwest.

Winds will remain below 10kts this morning. Winds increase this afternoon to near 10-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt mainly for the NYC and coastal terminals. Any gusts that develop will diminish around or shortly after sunset.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts could be 1-2 hours off from TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night and Thursday: VFR. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt early Wednesday evening before diminishing. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt for Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening as well.

Friday thru Sunday: Potential for MVFR or lower conditions in showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon/evening hours. For Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening, S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Strengthening S flow due sea breeze circulations could push wind gusts occasionally to around 20-25 kt nearshore across the NY Harbor and the westernmost ocean waters for both this afternoon and Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, conditions will remain below SCA levels through the end of the week.

As a frontal boundary moves nearby and perhaps over the waters the winds will likely be more out of the SE for Saturday with ocean seas getting closer to 4 ft. Seas are forecast to reach SCA levels Sunday through Monday night as winds increase ahead of and with a cold front.

HYDROLOGY
Showers and thunderstorms Friday into Friday night are expected to produce an average of a half inch to an inch of rainfall north of NYC, and lower amounts for NYC, LI and NE NJ. There is a threat of higher amounts as the storms may redevelop along a stalled cold front and move slowly. There is therefore at least a low risk for localized flash flooding.

A chance of showers and thunderstorms will be possible both days this weekend. Any stronger storms will likely produce locally heavy rainfall with a low risk of localized flash flooding. This will depend on the speed of the storms which is too early to assess at this time. Another round of storms is possible Monday with uncertainty around potential hydrologic impacts.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a moderate rip current risk for the western ocean beaches, and a low rip current risk for the Suffolk ocean beaches today.
There will be a moderate rip current risk for all ocean beaches on Thursday.

CLIMATE
Here are current record high temperatures for today through Friday.

Wednesday, June 19

NYC: 98(1994)
LGA: 97(1994)
JFK: 98(1994)
EWR: 102(1994)
ISP: 96(1994)
BDR: 96(1994)

Thursday, June 20

NYC: 98(1923)
LGA: 98(2012)
JFK: 94(2012)
EWR: 98(2012)
ISP: 93(1995)
BDR: 93(1953)

Friday, June 21

NYC: 97(1988)
LGA: 98(2012)
JFK: 97(2012)
EWR: 100(1953)
ISP: 95(2012)
BDR: 96(2012)

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ005-006.
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ007- 008.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ067>070.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
NLHC3 16 mi46 min 69°F 30.30
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi46 min 67°F 67°F30.27
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi46 minSSW 8G8.9 70°F 71°F30.31
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 44 mi46 minSW 4.1G6 71°F 68°F30.25


Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSNC CHESTER,CT 11 sm39 minSSW 0510 smClear68°F66°F94%30.31
KGON GROTONNEW LONDON,CT 17 sm38 minS 0410 smClear66°F64°F94%30.31
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSNC
   
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Wind History graph: SNC
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Tide / Current for Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut
   
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Old Saybrook Point
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Wed -- 02:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:39 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:33 AM EDT     2.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:16 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:31 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:45 PM EDT     3.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut, Tide feet
12
am
2.3
1
am
1.5
2
am
0.8
3
am
0.4
4
am
0.4
5
am
0.6
6
am
1.2
7
am
1.8
8
am
2.4
9
am
2.7
10
am
2.7
11
am
2.4
12
pm
1.9
1
pm
1.3
2
pm
0.8
3
pm
0.5
4
pm
0.6
5
pm
1
6
pm
1.7
7
pm
2.5
8
pm
3.2
9
pm
3.7
10
pm
3.8
11
pm
3.5


Tide / Current for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
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Wed -- 01:01 AM EDT     -2.91 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:27 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:09 AM EDT     2.20 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:28 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:19 PM EDT     -2.34 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:17 PM EDT     2.51 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots
12
am
-2.5
1
am
-2.9
2
am
-2.6
3
am
-1.7
4
am
-0.6
5
am
0.7
6
am
1.7
7
am
2.2
8
am
2
9
am
1.4
10
am
0.5
11
am
-0.6
12
pm
-1.7
1
pm
-2.3
2
pm
-2.2
3
pm
-1.5
4
pm
-0.4
5
pm
0.8
6
pm
1.9
7
pm
2.5
8
pm
2.3
9
pm
1.7
10
pm
0.7
11
pm
-0.6


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Upton, NY,




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