Monday, November18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fenwick, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:30PM Monday November 18, 2019 1:04 AM EST (06:04 UTC) Moonrise 11:10PMMoonset 1:11PM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1155 Pm Est Sun Nov 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon...
Overnight..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain late this evening, then chance of rain.
Mon..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ300 1155 Pm Est Sun Nov 17 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure approaches from the south tonight and passes to the east Monday. A second weaker system is expected to develop well offshore Tuesday night and move away during Wednesday. High pressure will build Wednesday and Wednesday night and settle nearby on Thursday. A cold front will then move through on Friday, followed by high pressure for the first half of the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fenwick borough, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.36     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180548
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1248 am est Mon nov 18 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure approaches from the south tonight and passes to
the east Monday. A second weaker system is expected to develop
well offshore Tuesday night and move away during Wednesday. High
pressure will build Wednesday and Wednesday night and settle
nearby on Thursday. A cold front will then move through on
Friday, followed by high pressure for the first half of the
weekend. An area of low pressure will approach and likely pass
south of the region on Sunday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Trended pops down initially as precipitation is still offshore.

It will take some time before any light precip develops over land
during the early morning hours. Confidence is not as high that there
will be widespread light freezing rain or drizzle across orange and
western passaic where the winter weather advisory is in effect after
3am. Forecast soundings indicate saturation is mainly in the low
levels. Lift is also weak with better support for precipitation
likely staying offshore. The other concern is whether temperatures
will be at or below freezing. Still think the best chance of this
occurring is where the advisory is in effect. Will leave the
advisory in place as it will only take spotty light freezing
rain drizzle to cause issues.

Elsewhere, the ongoing trends suggest less in the way of light rain
coverage into the early morning hours. The track of the offshore
low and lingering ridging aloft is going to make it difficult
for any widespread rain to overspread the region before day
break. The best chance of seeing light rain is across long
island and southeast connecticut.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the low 30s inland to
the middle and upper 30s closer to the coast. Enough warmer
aloft occurs for liquid precip.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Tuesday
Offshore shortwave steers deep sfc low just south and east of
the 40n 70w benchmark, then well east of new england as the day
progresses. The mid west trough approaches, and strong PVA will
allow for a lingering sfc trough, and possible focus for
additional precipitation through the day. Once interior
temperatures warm, any light freezing rain changes to plan rain
all locations with temperatures through the day in the 30s and
40s.

Coverage of precipitation is looking to be more spotty and any
amounts should be on the light side. The best lift and rain
coverage should hold off until late day and at night with
approaching 500 mb vort max. No changes have been made yet to
this portion of the forecast as want to see the rest of the 00z
guidance.

Gusty north winds begin to diminish late in the day as the pressure
gradient relaxes somewhat.

As the next trough moves through, expect precipitation to be
convective in nature, mainly rain showers. If enough cold air
advects in behind this system from the west overnight Monday, some
snow flakes could mix in, mainly interior locations.

Lows on the back side of this low pressure system will be in the
30s.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
To begin the period for early Tuesday morning temperatures will be
cooling in the lower and mid levels inland, and may bring a brief
wintry mix to far northern and northwestern sections, otherwise any
light precipitation should end as plain light rain or a few spotty
showers across the remainder of the region during Tuesday morning.

Throughout the day on Tuesday the mid levels will be dry with a lack
of overall synoptic scale lift despite a mean trough forming across
the NE conus. The upper level low will then begin to pivot through
during Tuesday night with the mid and upper level moisture
increasing.

By 12z Wednesday the upper level low and trough axis moves through.

Cold and dry advection will take hold throughout the column as high
pressure begins to build in throughout the day. This next airmass
will be just as much pacific in origin as polar, therefore
temperatures will not drop all that much below normal. A gusty
northwest wind will develop during the day on Wednesday and into
Wednesday evening as the region will be sandwiched in between low
pressure to the northeast and building high pressure to the
southwest. The high will then settle in on Thursday with relatively
light winds and seasonable temperatures.

The upper level ridge axis then moves east of the region late on
Thursday with upper level moisture increasing later in the day and
into the evening. A cold front then approaches for late Thursday
night into the first half of Friday. This will be a northern branch
shortwave passing through and should have very little moisture with
it. At this time no interaction is expected with the southern branch
and should result in a lack of gulf moisture. Any precipitation
should be light on Friday and in the liquid from with a return flow
of milder air out ahead of the frontal boundary. Behind the front a
tight pressure gradient will develop which will result in a gusty nw
flow regime later Friday and Friday night. High pressure is then
expected to build in for the first half of the weekend. Temperatures
will continue to average near or perhaps a few degrees below average
to begin the weekend. Then towards Sunday there is some model
disagreement, mainly based on how quickly upper level energy can
eject out of the southwestern us and how far north it ultimately
gets Saturday night into Sunday. For now the thinking is that the
trough will be somewhat positively tilted as it swings east with low
pressure potentially shearing out just south of the region. Slight
chance to low end chance pops appears to be the way to go with this
system at this time, with confidence being low due to the timing of
upper level energy tracking across the conus. Throughout the long
term temperatures will average overall near to slightly below normal
with day time maximums, and near normal with respect to night time
minimums.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Low pressure off the southeast coast gradually drifts northward,
passing well southeast of the area during the day on Monday.

MVFR ceilings have developed across most of the area, and will
gradually lower to 1500-2000 ft by morning. Ceilings then remain in
this range much of the day before dropping to 1000-2000 with pockets
of ifr by evening in steadier rain.

Showers develop across eastern terminals shortly after daybreak,
then spread west into the city terminals by late morning. Any
steadier rain will hold off until Monday evening into Monday night.

If precipitation is able to develop early enough Monday morning, a
brief period of fzra is possible at kswf.

Nne winds this evening will gradually back to the N and then nnw by
late Monday afternoon. Speeds will remain 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-
25 kt at the coast, and 10-15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt inland.

Gusts may be more occasional through the overnight period. Winds
will begin to diminish everywhere late in the TAF period.

Outlook for 00z Tuesday through Friday
Monday night MVFR in showers. Nnw winds diminishing.

Tuesday BecomingVFR early.

Wednesday-Thursday Vfr. NW winds g15-20kt on Wednesday.

Friday Chance MVFR in rain showers.

Marine
Northeast gales over the eastern ocean waters will continue tonight.

Strong SCA continues for the other waters. Winds will back to the
north as the storm system pulls away Monday, and winds will diminish
during the afternoon. West northwest winds lighten further Monday
night.

Rough seas on the ocean remain elevated before finally subsiding
late Monday and Monday night.

Seas will continue to gradually decrease out on the ocean during
Tuesday, with seas falling below SCA criteria by Tuesday night.

Ocean seas will generally settle in at 2 to 4 ft Wednesday, but with
a tightening pressure gradient on a northwest wind SCA wind gusts to
25 to 30 kt out on the ocean are expected later Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Marginal SCA wind gusts are expected for eastern li
sound, and the eastern and south shore bays. The pressure gradient
will then relax into Thursday as high pressure builds to the south
of the coastal waters.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the forecast
period.

Tides coastal flooding
Models continue to average higher tide levels than
observations, however thinking is that they will be closer to
observations tonight and tomorrow but still too high given the
anticipated wind speeds and more so direction. Will leave up the
advisory for tonight in nassau county, but thinking is that it
could potentially fall just short of minor benchmarks.

For Monday, there will be a good 6-8 hour period of nne-n winds
leading up to the afternoon high tide cycle. This will work against
any tidal piling that can be managed with several hours of a ne-nne
flow ahead of it. Will drop the coastal flood watch for nassau and
sw suffolk counties and go with an advisory. It's possible for
localized moderate flooding in nassau, but this is shaping up to be
mostly a minor flooding event.

Regarding other locations, will go with an advisory for queens and
brooklyn Monday afternoon. Areas surrounding ny harbor with the
exception of manhattan as well as areas along the north shore of
long island could potentially need a statement for localized minor
flooding. Will allow next shift to assess the need with new model
guidance and observations.

Elevated water levels with 7-11 ft breakers along the ocean
beachfront will result in some beach erosion during the times of
high tide on Monday. Localized washovers are possible as well. The
north shore of long island and the north facing shoreline of the
south fork will also likely have beach erosion possible wave
splashover issues due to rough waves as well.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) is operating
at reduced power until further notice.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Coastal flood advisory until 2 pm est this afternoon for
nyz179.

Winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
nyz067.

Coastal flood advisory from 10 am this morning to 2 pm est
this afternoon for nyz075-178.

Coastal flood advisory from noon today to 4 pm est this
afternoon for nyz080.

Nj... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
njz002.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz330-
335-338-340-345.

Gale warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for anz353.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Tuesday for anz355.

Gale warning until 6 pm est this evening for anz350.

Synopsis... Je pw
near term... Ds
short term... Ds pw
long term... Je
aviation... Drj
marine... Je pw
hydrology... Je pw
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 16 mi46 min NNE 4.1 G 7 40°F 53°F1016.3 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi58 min 45°F 49°F1015.8 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 29 mi46 min NNE 13 G 17 37°F 45°F1016.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 44 mi52 min NNE 7 G 12 38°F 48°F1016.7 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi69 minNNE 910.00 miOvercast39°F30°F70%1016.9 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT17 mi68 minNNE 11 G 1910.00 miOvercast42°F35°F76%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut
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Old Saybrook Point
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Mon -- 02:34 AM EST     3.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:30 AM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:10 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:47 PM EST     3.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:19 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.6332.72.11.40.90.50.50.91.52.22.93.43.53.22.61.810.40.10.10.6

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:13 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:19 AM EST     -2.53 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:19 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:09 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:18 PM EST     2.48 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 03:26 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:47 PM EST     -2.95 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:02 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.11.30.3-0.9-1.9-2.5-2.4-1.5-0.40.81.82.42.31.50.5-0.7-1.8-2.7-2.9-2.4-1.3-0.11.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.