Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 8:00 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ300 1216 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure builds in from new england today, then another frontal system tracks through Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure briefly returns Sunday night. High pressure then moves offshore early next week followed by a low pressure area moving across midweek.

FXUS61 KOKX 111805 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 205 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in from New England this afternoon, then a frontal system tracks through tonight into Sunday. High pressure briefly returns Sunday night. High pressure then moves offshore early next week followed by a low pressure area moving across midweek. Weak high pressure returns thereafter towards the end of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Forecast on track this afternoon. A weak high ridges down from New England this afternoon with a mid level ridge overhead.
These features are all within a larger mean upper level trough over eastern North America. Clouds will vary in coverage to this afternoon with at least partly sunny skies for most areas.
Middle and high clouds should begin to increase late.

Highs will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, warmest away from the immediate coast, 5-10 degrees below average for this time of year. ESE flow is already developing which will likely cap off any temperature rise near the coast for the remainder of the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
With troughing increasing from the west with an approaching frontal system in the Great Lakes, cloud cover is expected to increase Saturday evening into Saturday night. PWATs of 1"+ will also be advected in from the west with positive vorticity advection and warm air advection aloft both occurring, aiding in the formation of clouds and eventual rain.

The trough will guide a weakening frontal system into our area overnight Saturday with an occluded front. Rainfall will start in the west overnight and spread eastward toward daybreak and into the morning. Given the weakening nature of the system, most of the rainfall will likely occur over far western sections of the area with much lighter precip expected for the rest of the CWA due to weaker forcing. Some may only pick up a trace or even remain dry (in eastern areas), while those in far western sections of our CWA could see around a quarter inch.

No thunderstorms are expected due to a stable environment.
Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday from the influence of the trough, cloud cover and rain. Highs are expected to be in the mid- 50s, around 10-15 degrees below seasonal norms.

Expecting slow improvement Sunday afternoon and evening as high pressure returns once again with weak ridging aloft increasing from the west. Given the weak high taking over and the weak departing low, the pressure gradient will be weak, meaning mostly light winds Sunday night. And with the high pressure clearing clouds, could expect some weak radiational cooling. Lows are forecast to be in the mid/upper-40s with the LI Pine Barrens and interior areas in the low- 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
In the mid levels, ridging early next week will be followed by a trough moving in for midweek. Model differences with timing and evolution of trough with ECMWF showing a cutoff low. ECMWF keeps a slower movement of the cutoff low while the GFS and Canadian models depict a faster more progressive trough shifting more east of the area towards the end of next week.

At the surface, high pressure based in the Atlantic will allow for more southerly flow to develop early next week. Low level warm air advection is forecast with a warming trend to daytime temperatures from Monday to Tuesday. More easterly component of flow develops for midweek as low pressure approaches from the west. Like the mid levels, differences become more apparent in model solutions regarding the speed, location and strength of the low. ECMWF lingers the low nearby for Thursday and Thursday night while the GFS and Canadian models show the low moving farther east of the region. Weak high pressure follows for Thursday into Friday.

Next substantial rain event depicted in the general Tuesday to Wednesday night timeframe. Tuesday night and Wednesday could present some embedded thunderstorms, with a slight chance with elevated instability and colder air aloft moving in.

Temperatures mainly near to above normal during the long term.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Weak high pressure building in from New England this afternoon will give way to an approaching weak frontal system tonight into early Sunday.

BKN VFR cigs inland should expand toward the NYC metros and KISP late today into this evening. VFR expected much of tonight, then light showers with MVFR cond should arrive at KSWF after 08Z, to KHPN and the NYC metro 09Z-10Z, and KBDR/KISP by 12Z. Can't rule out brief IFR cigs at KSWF during mid to late morning. KGON should remain VFR.

SE-S flow either side of 10 kt (with the higher speeds closer to the coast) should diminish to under 10 kt tonight, and may go light/vrb at outlying terminals. SE flow under 10 kt expected daytime Sunday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night: VFR.

Monday: Mainly VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible in mainly afternoon showers.
S winds 15kt coastal terminals.

Tuesday night: MVFR likely in showers and possible tstms.
S winds 10-15kt coastal terminals.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower still likely in showers and t-storms.
SE winds 10-15G20kt, becoming NE.

Wednesday night: VFR. N winds 10-15G20kt.

Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels this weekend.

Mainly below SCA conditions forecast Monday through Tuesday with more probable SCA conditions for mid week.

HYDROLOGY
No significant hydrologic problems anticipated.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Many locations are expected to fall short of minor coastal flood benchmarks for high tide cycles tonight. However, the South Shore Bays of Nassau County NY could have some locations that touch or slightly exceed their minor coastal flood benchmarks.
A coastal flood statement has been issued for Southern Nassau County between 9PM EDT this evening and 1AM Sunday EDT overnight.

No additional coastal flooding is anticipated Sunday into next week as astronomical tide levels continue to subside.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Old Saybrook Point
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Sat -- 01:32 AM EDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:06 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:13 PM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:02 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut, Tide feet

The Race
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Sat -- 02:13 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:24 AM EDT     -3.50 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:34 AM EDT     2.73 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:47 PM EDT     -2.73 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:47 PM EDT     2.66 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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