Tuesday, July7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Guilford Center, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:27PM Tuesday July 7, 2020 8:38 PM EDT (00:38 UTC) Moonrise 10:35PMMoonset 7:41AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 553 Pm Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with chance of tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of tstms. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 553 Pm Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak warm front lifts north overnight. Weak high pressure then briefly builds across the area through Thursday. Low pressure will then approach from the south Friday into Saturday, followed by a series of weak fronts moving through from later Saturday into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guilford Center, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.67     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 072216 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 616 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak warm front lifts north overnight. Weak high pressure then briefly builds across the area through Thursday. Low pressure will then approach from the south Friday into Saturday, followed by a series of weak fronts moving through from later Saturday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. Minor update to temperatures and dewpoints with this evening update. Otherwise, cloud cover has so far limited any convective development. Any showers/storms that are able to develop will quickly come to an end this evening as daytime heating wanes. This will lead to a generally dry overnight period, although can't completely rule out a stray shower as a weak warm front lifts north and the low levels remain moist. With plenty of cloud cover, overnight lows will only fall to around 70 degrees.

A moderate rip current risk continues through this evening at Atlantic Ocean beaches due to relatively long period SE swell of 3-4 ft and SE flow 15 kt.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. A weak warm front lifts north of the area by Wednesday morning, followed by a shortwave trough approaching from the west in the afternoon. With better upper level support, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon, especially for areas from New York City north and west. Convection is then expected to diminish after sunset as the shortwave pushes east, allowing ridging to build in aloft for Wednesday night.

With the exception of the immediate south-facing coastlines, temperatures on Wednesday are expected to rise into the mid to upper 80s area wide. Combined with dewpoints around 70, this should produce heat index values in the upper 80s to lower 90s across much of the area, with a few locations across portions of northeast New Jersey possibly seeing heat index values touch the mid 90s. Overnight lows will provide little relief, only falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A moderate rip current risk is expected again on Wednesday due to relatively long period SE-S swell of 3 ft and S flow 10-15 kt.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure builds briefly on Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday are forecast to rise to the upper 80s and lower 90s. Heat index values should reach the mid and upper 90s across the interior and the lower 90s elsewhere. There is the potential for some isolated to widely sct showers/tstms off higher terrain and perhaps sea breeze boundaries anticipated in an unstable, but capped and weakly sheared environment Thursday afternoon and evening.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic Ocean beaches on Thursday as long period southerly swell continues.

Low pressure moves up the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday, passing over the region Friday night into Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially Friday afternoon and evening likely just north east of the sfc low as it taps into a warm conveyor belt of Gulf and subtropical Atlantic moisture. Still low confidence on location of this heavy rain potential, as well as potential for breezy conditions on the east side of the low, as a potential 30-40 kt LLJ develops.

An upper-level trough and its associated cold front will move into the area Saturday, resulting in hot and humid conditions and the increase chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. The cold front will move off to the east Monday, but the upper-level trough will remain overhead bringing a potential for diurnal convection as well as a gradual trend to a more seasonable airmass through early next week.

AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A weak warm front to the south of the region, will eventually lift northward and through the area late tonight.

With the terminals north of the front this evening, it's quite likely IFR/MVFR ceilings prevail at least through the first half of the night, quite possibly through daybreak. Models soundings do show the low-levels drying out some as the night progresses, in particular, as the flow veers more to the south. Confidence on improvement this evening is low. Any isolated shower or thunderstorm will be brief this evening.

ENE-SE flow of near 10 kts will become more southerly tonight into early Wednesday while maintaining nearly the same wind speed.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Wednesday-Thursday. MVFR or lower possible at times during afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly from the NYC metros north/west. Otherwise, VFR. Friday-Saturday. MVFR or lower conditions possible in showers. Thunderstorms are possible as well. Chance E-SE gusts 20-25kt for Friday into Friday night. Sunday. MVFR or lower possible at times with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through Wednesday night with winds generally remaining below 20 kt and ocean seas 3-4 feet.

SCA seas are likely Friday and into early next week with a persistent S/SW flow and strengthening wind fields owing to a possible coastal low nearing the region.

HYDROLOGY. A localized urban and poor drainage flooding threat exists with any isolated thunderstorm activity through Thursday.

There is increasing potential for more widespread heavy rain Friday into Saturday as low pressure moves up the coast. More details as the week progresses.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 13 mi50 min ESE 4.1 G 7 68°F 73°F1018.4 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 28 mi50 min E 9.9 G 13 68°F 71°F1018.3 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 31 mi50 min E 5.1 G 8 67°F 69°F1019.6 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 41 mi50 min 69°F 65°F1019.6 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT11 mi45 minE 76.00 miFog/Mist70°F66°F90%1018.9 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT12 mi63 minESE 31.00 miFog/Mist66°F66°F100%1020 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT19 mi45 minSE 510.00 miOvercast68°F64°F87%1018.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHVN

Wind History from HVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE7SE7SE7SE4SE5SE4SE4S4S7SE6SE7E7E10SE11
G16
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1 day agoSW4SW5S4S3CalmSW3W3CalmCalmCalmN3N4N6CalmN7S5S8S8E14SE16
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2 days agoS5S6S5S5S3CalmSW4SW3CalmCalmS4SW33W5SW6S8SW56S8S7S6S55S6

Tide / Current Tables for Guilford Harbor, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Branford, Branford River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.