Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 5:30AM||Sunset 8:23PM||Wednesday July 17, 2019 4:20 AM EDT (08:20 UTC)||Moonrise 9:08PM||Moonset 6:02AM||Illumination 100%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guilford Center, CTHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kokx 170603|
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
203 am edt Wed jul 17 2019
A warm front moves through and east of the region overnight.
Low pressure then develops to the southwest into Wednesday. The
low is expected to move over the area Wednesday night, as a cold
front approaches from the north in advance of building high
pressure over new england. The cold front moves through
Thursday, followed by building high pressure that will remain
centered over the southeast into the weekend. Another weak cold
front moves slowly through the area Saturday night. The front
stalls to our south Sunday with a wave of low pressure
developing along it possibly impacting the region early next
Near term until 6 am this morning
A warm front will move through and east of the region
overnight. Low level SW flow will allow for warm and humid
conditions. Lows were slightly adjusted. Overall forecast and
observed dewpoints and temperatures are within a few degrees of
agreement. Pops slightly adjusted downward going into the
overnight but increased them to slight chance late across the
region in response to some increase in instability, especially
across the coast with potentially CAPE getting to a few hundred
j kg overnight and close to 1000 j kg by daybreak Wednesday.
Expecting mainly dry conditions through overnight.
Temperatures are relatively warmer along the coast and with
warm air advection and more moist low level environment,
instability is more across the coast for overnight into daybreak
Wednesday. Therefore did not go totally dry and kept the slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms for the region for late
tonight into early Wednesday.
A weak convectively induced vorticity maximum upstream is
expected to pass through overnight, which combined with the
warm front may lead to isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Timing and placement of any showers and thunderstorms will be
difficult to pinpoint, but with increased moisture a brief heavy
downpour may be possible as well.
Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Thursday
Heights will fall on Wednesday as an upper trough to the north
phases with a short wave trough containing the remnants of
tropical cyclone barry. Despite an associated increase in cloud
cover, strengthening west-southwest flow will lead to continued
warm advection, with temperatures rising into the 80s to lower
90s. Expect uncomfortable conditions, with a few locales in
northeastern nj and nyc achieving heat indices in the afternoon
around 95 degrees as dew points remain in the low to mid 70s.
The quick increase in temperatures will also allow any remaining
cinh to erode by afternoon, and between a thermal trough
developing across the interior and sea breezes near the coast,
there may be enough forcing for ascent for thunderstorms to
develop at any time.
Most shower and thunderstorm activity will develop by late
afternoon into the evening as the trough nears and a surface low
deepens across the coast. The remnants of barry will bring a
significant increase in deep layer moisture, with forecast pwat
values well in excess of 2.00-2.25". Although weak mid level
lapse rates may limit updraft strength, low level lapse rates
are expected to steepen, with dcape values in the 500-1000 j kg
range, a subtle increase in low level flow, and evaporative
cooling likely supporting downdrafts in storms that do develop.
Additional storms will likely be triggered along the subsequent
outflow boundaries. Expect heavy downpours and potentially
strong to severe wind gusts in any storms that develop.
Storms then develop into a complex or complexes overnight as
flow aloft becomes parallel to the developing surface low.
Training of storms and convective nature may lead to an enhanced
threat for localized flooding as well. Refer to the hydrology
section for more information.
Muggy conditions will continue Wednesday night as lows only fall
into the 70s, and dew points remain in the 70s as well.
There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches for
Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Weak low pressure associated with the remnants of barry shifts
through the area on Thursday. Model average suggests that the the
center of this passes over or just to our south. This in turn brings
the wind forecast trend more towards an east to east-northeast
direction. Even if this doesn't pan out, plenty of cloud cover
should prevent temperatures from rising as high as previously
forecast. Won't go with a mav met blend just yet for high temps, but
will trend towards that direction.
Regarding rainfall potential, the general trend will be for chances
lowering as the day progresses with the low drifting east. Pwats in
this airmass will be high at the start of the day - perhaps near 2.5
inches. This, combined with a light steering flow presents at least
a low chance of flash flooding with heavy rainfall. Rain chances
continue to diminish through Thursday night with the low moving
farther out to sea. Dry weather is expected by sunrise.
Heights aloft build on Friday along with surface ridging. Models
show some subsidence with some capping along with relatively low
moisture. Will go with a dry forecast. The subsidence will also have
impacts on high temperatures. Looks like mixing would be limited to
900mb. Highs therefore reaching the mid 90s for the urban corridor
of NE nj, lower 90s for the city and lower hudson valley, and 85-90
for most of LI and ct. All models show a band of 6-12c 850mb
dewpoints shifting through during the late morning to mid-afternoon|
hours. This would promote lowering surface dewpoints with mixing of
the boundary layer, however the surface flow will be sw, offsetting
this. Still think surface dewpoints could mix out a little. This
leads to maximum heat indices averaging in the upper 90s to around
100 for all but ct and most of li.
Mixing to 850 mb is more probable on Saturday, and temps at this
level are expected to average around 23c. 850mb dewpoints will be
higher this time, around 14-17c, making it more difficult for
surface dewpoints to lower, but this could be offset by more of a
wsw surface flow. Expecting highs around 100 for NE nj, and some
locations within the city, and 90s elsewhere. Heat index values will
likely reach at least advisory levels everywhere, and a good portion
of the forecast area could potentially reach warning levels. Dry
weather should continue with relatively low rh through the
A weak cold front is progged to move through late Saturday
night, but this will do little to send any relief from the heat.
850mb temps progged at 21-22c with a westerly flow could have
temperatures getting to near 100 once again for some areas on
Sunday, but for now will go with highs mostly in the mid to
upper 90s. Some areas could reach heat warning levels once
again, and most areas would probably reach advisory criteria.
A wave of low pressure moves in on Monday, with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms along with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Tuesday looks dry for now with highs a few degrees cooler than on
Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
A warm front moves east of the area early this morning. Weak low
moves into the area late this afternoon into Wednesday night as
a backdoor cold front begins to move into the region toward the
end of the forecast period.
Vfr until late this afternoon. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms will be developing late in the day and into the
evening with MVFR conditions, and local ifr possible.
Widespread MVFR conditions remain Wednesday night with showers
and more isolated thunderstorms. Local ifr is also possible.
Southwest wind overnight 5 to 10 kt, increase to 10 to 15 kt
this morning. Sea breezes likely this afternoon.
Outlook for 06z Thursday through Sunday
Wednesday night-Thursday Showers likely, with low potential
for thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday evening with
MVFR ifr conditions possible.
Friday through Sunday MainlyVFR... An isolated shower or
thunderstorm possible late afternoon evening on each day.
A relatively weak pressure gradient will be across the forecast
waters through Sunday with winds and seas remaining below sca
There is the potential for moderate to locally heavy rainfall
Wednesday and Wednesday night, with rainfall then continuing through
Thursday night. Urban, low lying, and poor drainage flooding will be
most likely Wednesday and Wednesday night, although there is the
potential for localized flash flooding, mainly Wed eve due to
slow moving storms. Rainfall may total 1 to 2 inches with
locally higher amounts.
The following are records for this weekend:
record highest minimum temperatures for Saturday, july 20:
nyc: 82 in 2015
lga: 83 in 2015
jfk: 79 in 2015
ewr: 80 in 2015
isp: 78 in 2013
bdr: 79 in 2013
record high temperatures for Saturday, july 20:
nyc: 101 in 1980
lga: 101 in 1991
jfk: 96 in 2013 (also occurred in previous years)
ewr: 101 in 1980
isp: 97 in 1991
bdr: 95 in 1001
record highest minimum temperatures for Sunday, july 21:
nyc: 82 in 1980
lga: 83 in 1980
jfk: 79 in 2017
ewr: 81 in 1980
isp: 76 in 1980
bdr: 76 in 1994
record high temperatures for Sunday, july 21:
nyc: 104 in 1977
lga: 100 in 1991
jfk: 99 in 1991
ewr: 103 in 2011
isp: 101 in 1991
bdr: 98 in 1991
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
Okx watches warnings advisories
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT||28 mi||56 min||SW 2.9 G 5.1||77°F||71°F||1014.1 hPa|
|NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT||31 mi||50 min||WSW 1 G 1.9||76°F||70°F||1014.4 hPa|
|LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather||32 mi||40 min||W 9.9 G 11||74°F||1013.2 hPa||71°F|
|MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY||41 mi||50 min||74°F||73°F||1015 hPa|
|44069||45 mi||65 min||WSW 12 G 16||77°F||81°F||75°F|
Wind History for New Haven, CT(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT||11 mi||27 min||S 5||10.00 mi||Fair||77°F||72°F||85%||1014.6 hPa|
|Chester, Chester Airport, CT||12 mi||25 min||Var 4||10.00 mi||Fair||73°F||71°F||94%||1015.2 hPa|
|Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT||19 mi||27 min||S 5||10.00 mi||Fair||73°F||68°F||84%||1014.1 hPa|
Wind History from HVN (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||N||N||NW||NW||W||W||SW|
|2 days ago||SW||SW||W||S||SW||SW||W||W||NW||NW|
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GOES Local Image of Northeast EDIT
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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