Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Guilford Center, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:23PM Thursday December 12, 2019 3:00 AM EST (08:00 UTC) Moonrise 5:57PMMoonset 8:22AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1217 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est early this morning...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..SE winds around 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
ANZ300 1217 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Strong arctic high pressure builds in through tonight, then pushes offshore Thursday evening. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through on Saturday with high pressure building back in on Sunday and Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guilford Center, CT
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location: 41.27, -72.67     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 120527 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1227 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. Strong arctic high pressure builds in through tonight, then pushes offshore Thursday evening. Low pressure approaches from the south Friday and passes through on Saturday with high pressure building back in on Sunday and Monday. Another storm then impacts the area for Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Updated to account for latest observations with W-NW gusts along coastal areas reaching 30 kt (35 MPH)as strengthening high pressure and much colder air builds into the region.

Subsidence underneath the high will allow for a mostly clear sky. So, although tonight will not be an optimal night for radiational cooling due to the winds, it will be unseasonably cold with lows ranging from the teens in the outlying areas to the middle 20s for the New York City metro area. Combined with the winds, it will feel more like the teens and single digits across the forecast area late tonight into early Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Dry conditions continue into Thursday and Thursday night as the center of the high quickly moves over the area, then offshore thanks to zonal flow aloft. Continued cold advection early Thursday will mean well below normal high temperatures. Highs will be in the lower to middle 30s, some 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Return flow sets up on the back side of the high as it pushes offshore late Thursday. This will allow a warm front to lift well north of the area. Thursday night will see a non-diurnal temperature trend, with temperatures remaining steady or rising through the night, especially along the coast. Lows in the 20s to lower 30s will be reached early in the night. The return flow will also mean an increase in moisture aloft and therefore an increase in clouds.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Low pressure begins to take shape across the Southeast with high pressure centered well off to our northeast. Isentropic lift ahead of a warm front interacts with fairly shallow moisture for a chance of light rain or drizzle Friday morning, which could be freezing for a brief time NW of the city. Better chances of rainfall then occur in the afternoon as moisture deepens. Rain eventually becomes likely across the forecast area as Friday night progresses.

The center of the storm is expected to pass over or nearby the Tri-State Area Saturday morning into early afternoon. Increasing lift with deep moisture brings primarily rainfall that will be mainly moderate, but may be heavy at times. Rain chances drop off through Saturday night with the storm off to the east and a westerly flow developing in its wake. This will lead to a dry and breezy Sunday with high temperatures a few degrees above normal.

A high pressure ridge shifts through on Monday, keeping us dry. Another low pressure system then approaches from the Ohio Valley Monday night with increasing chances of rain or mixed PCPN into Tuesday. Will limit PoPs to no higher than 50% through Tuesday night as global deterministic models and ensembles disagree with the track of the storm. The track will also have implications on PCPN type. Went with the middle ground for this forecast, including simplified PCPN types this far out in time. High pressure would then follow for Wednesday with dry weather.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure builds toward the region overnight, overhead Thursday, then offshore in the evening.

VFR though most of the period with MVFR ceilings developing after 06Z Friday.

NW winds overnight with occasional gusts up to 20 kt through 09-10Z. Winds will continue to veer and lighten through the morning as the high approaches. A weak S-SE flow develops late in the afternoon into the early evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Thursday night. Becoming MVFR after 06Z. Friday and Friday night. MVFR or lower in developing rain, especially Friday night. Saturday. IFR in rain, tapering off to scattered showers later in the day and at night. LLWS possible. Sunday. Generally VFR. West winds 10-15kt gusts 20-30kt. Sunday night-Monday. VFR.

MARINE. A few gusts to 35 kt are possible on the waters early this evening.

SCA remains in effect as winds increase across all waters tonight, thanks to increasing pressure gradient from a strengthening high building into the area from the west. 25 to 30 kt gusts are expected through about midnight tonight, but will diminish thereafter.

Waves build to 4 to 7 ft on the ocean waters and will also diminish overnight, with the eastern ocean zone hanging on to 5 ft waves for a few hours Thursday morning. SCA in effect through much of Thursday morning for eastern ocean zone because of this.

Winds and seas increase Friday and Friday night ahead of low pressure, which is expected to pass through or nearby during Saturday morning or early afternoon. SCA conds will be possible on the ocean by the end of the day Friday, eventually become probable Friday night and remain likely throughout Saturday. For the remaining waters, there is a chance that gusts do not reach 25 kt up to this point. Models disagree with the track of the center of the storm and how potent it will be, but best chances of gusts this high would be late Friday night/early Saturday morning should they occur.

Winds then pick up from the west on Saturday night and Sunday behind the storm. SCA conds likely for all waters, and potentially gales Sunday into Sunday night on the ocean, eastern LI Sound and the eastern LI bays. Winds and seas subside on Monday with the approach of a high pressure ridge, but possibly still within advisory criteria for a portion of the day.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic issues are expected with mainly snow this Friday.

1.00 to 1.50 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts are anticipated from Friday night through Saturday. Minor nuisance flooding will be possible with this event.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There will be a chance of coastal flooding with the high tide cycle during Saturday morning. This will be due to onshore winds with an approaching storm combined with relatively high astronomical tides due to a nearly full moon. Minor coastal flooding will be possible primarily along the south shore back bays of Long Island, where even moderate coastal flooding is a possibility at least along the Nassau County bays. Minor flooding will also be possible along NY Harbor and parts of Western Long Island Sound. Confidence is not high at this point as the event is still a few days away, and shifts in storm's track and/or timing would change the flooding potential.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . JC/JP NEAR TERM . DJ/16 SHORT TERM . DJ/16 LONG TERM . JC AVIATION . DS/DW MARINE . JC/JP/DW HYDROLOGY . JC/JP TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 13 mi43 min NNW 8.9 G 13 29°F 42°F1033.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 28 mi49 min NNW 4.1 G 6 1033.9 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 31 mi43 min NNW 7 G 15 1033 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 32 mi31 min NW 19 G 24 29°F 13°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 41 mi49 min 33°F 44°F1033.1 hPa
44069 45 mi46 min NW 12 G 16 32°F 39°F17°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT11 mi68 minNNW 910.00 miFair32°F15°F50%1033.5 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT12 mi66 minNNW 1110.00 miFair27°F15°F64%1032.2 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT19 mi68 minVar 510.00 miFair27°F10°F51%1034 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHVN

Wind History from HVN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N15
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N15N6N4N6NE3CalmW5SW4W7SW5SW7W8W5SW14
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1 day agoS4SW6SW6S3SW4S6SW7SW33SW7SW9SW6SW4SW7SW9SW4NW12
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN3NE4CalmCalmS15
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Tide / Current Tables for Guilford Harbor, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Branford, Branford River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.