Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 8:51 PM Moonrise 3:09 PM   Moonset 2:51 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

LEZ142 Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh-reno Beach To The Islands Oh- The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 355 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Patchy fog. Areas of dense fog late. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - East winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Southeast winds less than 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 65 degrees, off cleveland 56 degrees, and off erie 52 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 181953 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 353 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure slides across the region tonight and Sunday. A weak cold front approaches from the northwest Sunday night before lifting well to our north as a warm front on Monday. A cold front is expected to push through on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Relatively benign weather is expected for the remainder of the weekend. The combination of heating of a somewhat moist low- level airmass, a subtle vort max overhead, and some low-level convergence over the Mid Ohio region has allowed isolated showers and thunder to develop. Expect this activity to dissipate by around sunset. Weak high pressure then slides through tonight and Sunday leading to partly to mostly clear skies and dry conditions for most of the forecast area through the rest of the near term. A weak cold front will try to approach Northwest Ohio late Sunday afternoon / evening before lifting north to start the week. Strong upper ridging will be in place, though forecast soundings depict modest to moderate and uncapped instability near Toledo late Sunday afternoon / evening. Enough hi-res models have isolated to scattered convection nearing Northwest Ohio late Sunday to maintain some 20-30% POPs to cover the potential. Weak shear and forcing suggest any storms will be of the single cell or "pulse" variety. Thermodynamics may be sufficient for a couple of cells to produce locally gusty winds or small hail in Northwest Ohio late Sunday, though overall am not too concerned about any kind of organized strong to severe storm threat. Any storms that make it into Northwest Ohio should rain themselves out by late Sunday evening with dry weather for the rest of Sunday night.

Lows tonight will generally settle into the 50s. It will be quite warm on Sunday, with highs in the low to mid 80s with the exception of the eastern lakeshore where onshore flow will keep conditions cooler. Lows Sunday night will be quite mild, ranging from the mid to upper 50s from far eastern OH into PA to the mid 60s along and west of I-71. Some radiation fog is likely again late tonight and very early Sunday though coverage should not be as widespread as Friday night into early this morning. The most widespread fog with pockets of dense fog will be from interior eastern OH into western PA, with fog more patchy and generally not quite as dense farther west.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Mid to upper level ridging will gradually build east during the day Monday before an upper trough and embedded shortwave clips Northwest Ohio on Tuesday. For now, have low end PoPs confined to Northwest Ohio for Monday afternoon and along and west of I-71 Tuesday afternoon. The upper trough becomes more pronounced Tuesday night as the surface low moves northeastward while deepening. This low will swing a cold front toward the Ohio Valley region to end the short term and begin the long term period.

Temperatures will rise nearly 10-15 degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Warm overnight lows Monday and Tuesday night in the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The aforementioned deepening low pressure will drag a cold front east across the local area on Wednesday and bring increased shower and thunderstorm chances to the region. The environment continues to look favorable for strong to severe storms develop as we'll remain in the warm sector with dew points in the low 60s with current guidance suggesting roughly 1000-1500+ J/kg of MLCAPE to work with.
We will continue to monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday as we get more model guidance. Trended drier toward the end of the week behind the cold front as a brief ridge of high pressure builds northward for Friday.

Highs top out in the lower 80s ahead of the cold front on Wednesday before returning to near normal values in the mid 70s Thursday through Saturday. Overnight lows through the long term settle in the mid 50s each night.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/
VFR has returned this afternoon. A few isolated showers are likely, mainly along/west of a TOL-FDY line and south of a FDY- MFD-GKJ line through early this evening. It should be stressed that coverage should remain limited, to the point where confidence wasn't high enough to include VCSH anywhere. There is a low risk for one or two showers to produce lightning and isolated / brief vsby restrictions. Otherwise, some mist and fog will likely develop overnight tonight into early Sunday morning. Greatest concern at ERI, YNG and CAK (in that order)
and have a few hours of IFR/LIFR at these sites. Passing IFR is possible at CLE and TOL and have a TEMPO there to depict that.
FDY and MFD have the lowest risk for IFR fog/mist early Sunday.
All will quickly return to VFR after sunrise Sunday morning.

Winds will be light out of the north-northeast in the 4 to 10 knot range this afternoon (strongest near the Lake Erie shoreline). Winds will go light and variable this evening and tonight, with light west/northwest winds of less than 7 knots developing Sunday morning.

Outlook...Low risk for isolated thunderstorms in Northwest OH Monday night. Somewhat greater potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are likely Wednesday afternoon.
Mainly VFR is expected outside of thunderstorms.

MARINE
Satellite imagery and local area webcams of Lake Erie indicate vast improvement of visibilities and thus the Dense Fog Advisory was cancelled. Moist low levels under a steep inversion overnight tonight will likely prompt the issuance of another fog headline over the lake. Low confidence in exact timing and placement of overnight fog so opted to hold off on issuing a new Dense Fog Advisory for overnight tonight with this forecast update.

High pressure persists through the weekend keeping winds light and variable on the lake through Monday afternoon. Flow turns southerly over Lake Erie by Monday night generally remaining between 5 and 10 knots. Deepening low pressure centered over the Great Plains will enter the Great Lakes region by mid week and will allow for southerly flow to increase to 15-20 knots during the day Wednesday before a cold front crosses eastward on Wednesday evening. Southwest flow of 10-15 knots behind the cold front continues into the end of the week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Cleveland, OH,