Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Saybrook Center, CT

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:22PM Thursday July 18, 2019 5:25 AM EDT (09:25 UTC) Moonrise 9:43PMMoonset 6:58AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 344 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers until late afternoon, then chance of showers with isolated tstms late.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 344 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak low pressure passes through the forecast waters today as a back door cold front moves into the area. The front becomes nearly stationary late today into tonight as another wave of low pressure tracks along the front. High pressure builds back into the area and will remain centered over the southeastern states into the weekend. A cold front approaches Monday and moves through Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Saybrook Center, CT
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location: 41.28, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 180834
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
434 am edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
Weak low pressure moves across the region today as a cold front
moves in from the north. The front becomes nearly stationary
late today into tonight as another wave of low pressure tracks
along the front. High pressure builds in for Friday. A warm
front will lift north of the region Friday night. Bermuda high
pressure will be in place over the weekend. A cold front
approaches Monday and moves through Monday night. High pressure
returns for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Weak shortwave energy will be moving through the region on a
weak and difluent upper flow while weak surface low pressure
passes across the region. Meanwhile with high pressure passing
across eastern canada and northern new england as back door cold
front will moves into the region. The combination of upper and
mid level energy, along with the frontal boundary, will produce
scattered showers day. Instability, cape, and shear will remain
limited, with the best chance for convection inland. While
precipitable waters values will remain elevated heavy rainfall
is not expected with limited convection. The best chances for
any poor drainage or low lying flooding will be across
northeastern new jersey where areas received heavy rainfall
Wednesday.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
Additional energy moves through aloft tonight with weak low
pressure riding along the nearly stationary frontal boundary.

With weak forcing will keep mainly chance and slight chance
probabilities until the low moves east of the area late. With
very little CAPE and no instability will mention only showers.

Friday high pressure will dominate as weak ridging builds into
the area from the sub tropical high centered over the
southeastern states. Temperatures at 850mb will be nearing 23
degrees c by late in the day with the warm air moving along the
periphery of the ridge, and into the western areas. Dew points
will be remaining into the lower to mid 70s. As a result heat
indices across the lower hudson valley and into new york city
will be around 105. With the potential for reach warning level
heat indices, have expanded the excessive heat watch into the
lower hudson valley and new york city.

There is a low rip current risk at the ocean beaches for
Friday.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
The main concern for this period will be the high heat and
humidity that is expected to impact the area both Saturday and
Sunday as a bermuda high builds over the northern atlantic.

The warmest day of the weekend will be Saturday, with highs
around 100 for NE nj, and some locations within the city, and
90s elsewhere. Heat index values will reach at least advisory
levels everywhere, and a significant portion of the forecast
area will reach warning level. Heat index values will range from
100-112 across most of the cwa, the exception being the far
eastern portion of long island. As a result, an excessive heat
watch is in effect for the entire cwa.

Another hot day is expected on Sunday. It should be slightly
cooler on Sunday, however it probably wont feel that way as
temperatures once again climb into the 90s, with heat index
values reaching the upper 90s and lower 100 for most of the cwa.

Once again, the one exception will the the far eastern end of
long island. As it stands right now, it looks like a good bet
for at least advisory level conditions for most if not all of
the cwa.

With respect to precipitation, thermal troughs are expected to
developing both days, which could result in showers and
thunderstorms for Saturday and Sunday. Any storms that develop
on Saturday would be late in the day and mainly north and west
of nyc. Showers or thunderstorm activity, should be more
widespread on Sunday. Precipitation chances increase Sunday
night into Monday, with best chances for rain Monday afternoon
as a cold front approaches. The front looks to move through late
Monday into Monday night, with high pressure for Tuesday.

Temperatures will be cooler for Monday thanks to increase
cloudiness, though humidity levels will still be high. More
comfortable conditions are expected for Tuesday as dew points
fall behind the cold front.

High pressure builds back into the region Wednesday.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
Weak low pressure moves into the region tonight, with a
backdoor cold front moving into the region this afternoon.

Widespread MVFR to ifr conditions appear to be developing as
expected early this morning. Sct showers also redeveloping over
se pa and northern nj a few hours earlier than guidance had
been indicating. These conds are expected to gradually improve
to MVFR and possibly even a period ofVFR this afternoon. A
return to MVFR ifr conditions expected this evening. Increasing
chance for showers and isolated tstms this morning, continuing
through this afternoon for nyc nj terminals.

Weak waves of low pres riding along the approaching from will
result in a tough wind forecast today. Light and vrb to start
should give way to a light (less than 10 kt) e-ne flow later
this morning and aftn. There is the potential for winds to veer
to the SE in the afternoon for nyc nj terminals.

Outlook for 06z Friday through Monday
Tonight Showers ending, with MVFR ifr CIGS likely.

Friday through Sunday Vfr. Iso shra tstms possible Sunday
and Monday.

Marine
A relatively weak pressure gradient will keep winds and seas below
sca levels today through this weekend. A brief period of 5 ft
seas may develop on the central and eastern ocean waters on
Monday afternoon and Monday night as a cold front moves across
the area.

Hydrology
Up to 1 2 inch of rainfall is likely today with locally higher
amounts possible. There is a low threat of poor drainage and low
lying flooding today across portions of northeastern new jersey.

No hydrologic impacts are expected Friday into next week.

Climate
The following are records for this weekend:
record highest minimum temperatures for Saturday, july 20:
nyc: 82 in 2015
lga: 83 in 2015
jfk: 79 in 2015
ewr: 80 in 2015
isp: 78 in 2013
bdr: 79 in 2013
record high temperatures for Saturday, july 20:
nyc: 101 in 1980
lga: 101 in 1991
jfk: 96 in 2013 (also occurred in previous years)
ewr: 101 in 1980
isp: 97 in 1991
bdr: 95 in 1001
record highest minimum temperatures for Sunday, july 21:
nyc: 82 in 1980
lga: 83 in 1980
jfk: 79 in 2017
ewr: 81 in 1980
isp: 76 in 1980
bdr: 76 in 1994
record high temperatures for Sunday, july 21:
nyc: 104 in 1977
lga: 100 in 1991
jfk: 99 in 1991
ewr: 103 in 2011
isp: 101 in 1991
bdr: 98 in 1991

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... Excessive heat watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for ctz005>012.

Ny... Excessive heat watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for nyz078>081-177-179.

Excessive heat watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
evening for nyz067>075-176-178.

Nj... Excessive heat watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
evening for njz002-004-006-103>108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bc 19
near term... 19
short term... 19
long term... Bc
aviation...

marine... Bc 19
hydrology... Bc 19
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 15 mi31 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 71°F 1011.8 hPa70°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi56 min S 2.9 G 5.1 73°F 73°F1012.6 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi56 min 72°F 72°F1013.2 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 44 mi36 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 74°F 74°F1013.4 hPa73°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi62 min W 2.9 G 5.1 73°F 72°F1012.4 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi31 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist72°F71°F100%1013.5 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT16 mi30 minN 07.00 miOvercast73°F69°F87%1013 hPa

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut
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Old Saybrook Point
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Thu -- 12:05 AM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:41 PM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:30 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.73.532.21.30.60.20.20.51.11.92.6332.72.21.50.90.60.60.91.62.33

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:01 AM EDT     -3.25 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:09 AM EDT     2.61 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:29 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:21 PM EDT     -2.72 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:28 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:17 PM EDT     2.60 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.2-0.1-1.6-2.8-3.3-2.9-1.9-0.60.92.12.62.41.70.7-0.7-2-2.7-2.5-1.8-0.60.71.92.62.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.