Wednesday, January29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Old Saybrook Center, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 5:03PM Wednesday January 29, 2020 5:45 AM EST (10:45 UTC) Moonrise 10:45AMMoonset 10:42PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 358 Am Est Wed Jan 29 2020
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft late. Chance of rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 358 Am Est Wed Jan 29 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak low pressure trough will pass through from the north this morning. High pressure will then build from the north, settle over the area from Thursday into Friday. The high will then give way to low pressure passing offshore over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Saybrook Center, CT
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location: 41.28, -72.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 290917 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 417 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak low pressure trough will pass through from the north this morning. High pressure will then build from the north, settle over the area from Thursday into Friday. The high will then give way to low pressure passing offshore over the weekend. Brief high pressure on Monday will give to an approaching warm front Monday night into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Low clouds continue to hang tough, with only a few breaks seen on GOES IR imagery at most downstream of the Catskills toward NYC and western Long Island. Think skies will remain mostly cloudy at least until a mid level shortwave trough just to the NW per latest satellite WV imagery, and an H8 trough approaching from the north, both pass through mid to late morning, with skies becoming mostly sunny this afternoon in their wake.

Temps despite cloud cover have been close to or just over MOS guidance, so have followed that trend for today, with highs in the lower 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. Clear skies and diminishing winds as high pressure builds from the north will lead to a cold night, with lows in the teens inland, along the SE CT coast, and in the Long Island Pine Barrens, and 20s elsewhere, at or no more than a few degrees below seasonal averages.

Still mostly sunny for most of Thu, with a veil of bkn high clouds spreading over the area in the afternoon per model soundings, perhaps also a few low clouds right along the coast atop a shallow marine layer as low level flow turns NE-E. Tue should be the coldest day of the entire forecast period, with highs in the mid/upper 30s most places, and near 40 only in NYC and NE NJ, which are near seasonal averages.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As suspected 24 hours ago, additional PAC energy would be better resolved as it moved onshore across western Canada on Tuesday. This seems to have resulted in much better agreement of the global model guidance with the forecast track of a coastal low Friday night into Saturday. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF, as well as their ensemble members, take a deepening low from Mid Atlantic coast Saturday morning, to southeast of the 40N . 70W benchmark Saturday night. This will keep the area on the NW flank of the storm with a low chance of precipitation Friday night into Saturday night, with the highest probability across coastal locations.

There is very little cold air in place with the main source coming from an approaching upper trough to the west. Dynamics are weak and there is no evidence of phasing of multiple streams of shortwave energy within the southern branch of the polar jet. The best forcing will likely be well to the east with the offshore cyclogenesis. Thus, have opted for only low chances of rain and snow. No snowfall accumulations are forecast at this time with the liquid equivalent amounts likely to be less than a quarter inch. It's quite possible that the area stays dry this weekend. The trend is toward less impact.

After a cold start Friday morning with high pressure across the area, temperatures will remain above normal by about 5 degrees with highs around 40 and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Conditions quickly warm going into next week with the upper trough passing offshore on Sunday and broad southern branch ridging expanding eastward. This will be accompanied by temperatures getting well into the 40s Monday and Tuesday with the possibility of the lower 50s in some spots. An approaching warm front Monday night into Tuesday will produce increasing chances of rain. Wintry weather seems unlikely with warm air aloft and lows across the interior Tuesday morning in the lower 30s to start.

Thus far this winter, southern branch domination looks to continue into next week.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A large area of high pressure gradually builds in from the north today.

VFR. BKN-OVC clouds 4-6 kft should gradually scatter and clear later this morning. Few if any clouds are expected during the late morning and through the evening.

NW winds prevail 6-12 kt early this morning. These NW winds persist through the day Wednesday, 10-13 kt. Cannot rule out a gust or two in spots 15-20 kt.

Winds veer to the north in the evening and diminish below 10 kt.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Late tonight through Friday night. VFR. Saturday. MVFR or lower possible in rain or snow. Sunday. Mainly VFR. Slight chance rain or snow. NW winds G15-20kt possible.

MARINE. Winds just below SCA criteria sill ongoing on the western ocean waters. Winds throughout should diminish, with quite conditions into Friday as high pressure builds from the north. The high will then give way to deepening low pressure tracking from the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday morning to south and east of 40N . 70W Saturday night. This will keep the area on the NW fringe of the storm, with the potential for marginal SCA conditions. A better chance may come Saturday night into Sunday in post-storm westerly flow. Lingering SCA seas on the ocean may linger into Monday.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through Tuesday.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Goodman/DW NEAR TERM . Goodman SHORT TERM . Goodman LONG TERM . DW AVIATION . BC/PW MARINE . Goodman/DW HYDROLOGY . DW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 15 mi35 min NW 13 G 15 33°F 1010.4 hPa20°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi45 min NNW 1.9 G 5.1 33°F 42°F1013.6 hPa (+0.8)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 26 mi45 min 34°F 39°F1013.8 hPa (+0.9)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi45 min N 14 G 18 32°F 39°F1014.3 hPa (+0.8)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi45 min NNW 8 G 14 31°F 40°F1014.8 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chester, Chester Airport, CT11 mi2.8 hrsNW 710.00 miLight Unknown Precip32°F21°F64%1012.9 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT16 mi1.8 hrsNW 710.00 miOvercast33°F19°F58%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSNC

Wind History from SNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----NW10N14--NW11
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1 day agoW5W5W5W6
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2 days ago--Calm----W4SW9W8
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5--CalmW33Calm5------W6
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Tide / Current Tables for Old Saybrook Point, Connecticut
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Old Saybrook Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:23 AM EST     2.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:24 AM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:27 PM EST     2.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:46 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:42 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.82.82.41.81.20.60.30.40.71.31.92.52.82.82.41.91.10.50.1-00.20.81.5

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:09 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:09 AM EST     -2.64 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:18 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:05 AM EST     2.33 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:17 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:27 PM EST     -2.71 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:37 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:41 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:29 PM EST     2.41 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.30.2-1.1-2.1-2.6-2.4-1.5-0.40.81.92.321.30.3-0.8-1.9-2.6-2.6-1.9-0.80.51.62.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.