Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shelton, CT

KEY MESSAGES
1) Isolated-scattered shower/storm possible this afternoon into evening mainly NW of NYC metro. No severe or flooding impacts anticipated.

2) There is a high rip current risk at ocean beaches through this evening.

3) Mainly dry Tuesday into Wednesday with the next chance of showers on Thursday, potentially continuing into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Low pressure center located on the south shore of Suffolk County as of 15z. Steady light to moderate rain to the south and east of the center continues shifting east for the remainder of the morning into early aftn. To the north and NW of the low, areas of light rain or drizzle.

A weak cold front/surface trough moves in this afternoon. There should be enough lingering moisture and instability (SBCAPEs 500- 1500 J/jg) to support isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ and into NYC. Any activity should dissipate shortly after sunset with loss of daytime heating. Shear is weak, so no severe impacts expected.


KEY MESSAGE 2
High rip current risk for ocean beaches through this evening due to 3-5 ft waves and a S-SE swell. However, the risk may lower to moderate for Nassau and NYC beaches this afternoon as seas begin subsiding.

For Tuesday, the rip current risk is moderate although it could end up becoming low as S-SE swells subside and winds remain light.


KEY MESSAGE 3
High pressure will build over the area Monday night through the middle of the week. It should remain dry with seasonably warm temperatures for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The only exception is a low probability for a passing shower Tuesday afternoon across New London County Connecticut. Some weak lift and residual moisture may support an few brief showers Tuesday afternoon.

A broad upper trough will push towards the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. Low pressure over southeast Canada will drag a cold front across the area on Thursday. The front will be entering the area late Wednesday night, but forcing is weak and moisture is limited. There is a signal in the last few runs of the modeling for a jet streak to pass to our north on Thursday with some shortwave energy rounding the base of the upper trough to our west. This could be enough to develop showers and possibly a thunderstorm on Thursday as the front slowly moves through the area. The NBM has maintained chance PoPs on Thursday and this seems reasonable as there is still a decent amount of ensemble spread. There is a plausible scenario where any showers on Thursday remain isolated as dynamics aloft remain weak.

The front is likely to stall to the south on Friday and may remain there into at least the first half of the upcoming weekend. Some of the uncertainty with shortwave energy on Thursday may persist Friday into the weekend as the the upper trough lingers over the east. A few waves of low pressure may develop on the front to the south in response to the troughing.
Chances for showers, possibly a thunderstorm, exist late Friday into the weekend. Friday through the weekend will not be a complete washout, but there may be a period where showers are more likely than others. This will become better resolved over the next few days.

AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A frontal system impacts the area terminals today.

Weak low pressure heads east of the terminals this morning.
Lingering IFR/MVFR conditions should improve to VFR by the early afternoon for NYC terminals on west. Further east, conditions improve to VFR late in the TAF period or remain MVFR through the remainder of the TAF period. Showers and/or drizzle may remain over the eastern terminals for much of the day.

A second round of showers remain possible this afternoon with isolated thunder. Best chances will be at KSWF, with lower confidence of occurrence closer to NYC. Because of this, will only mention TSRA at KSWF with a PROB30 and leave out of the TAF at the NYC terminals.

Another chance of IFR/MVFR cigs will be possible tonight, with the better chances remaining east of NYC.

Winds are light and vrb this morning as the low approaches.
Once the low moves east, winds will become more westerly and northerly. Winds become light and variable once again tonight.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence wind direction forecast today.

Timing of categorical changes could be a few hours off from TAF.

Timing of showers could be a few hours off from TAF.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm at night with MVFR possible.

Thursday: MVFR or lower at times. Chances of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance of showers with MVFR possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Ocean seas will continue to subside through today. Anticipating spots east of Fire Island Inlet to remain elevated with a lingering swell through mid-afternoon with a SCA still in place. Conditions across all waters then remain below SCA levels this evening through Saturday as a relatively weak pressure gradient remains in place.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350- 353.