Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Peekskill, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1. A couple of rounds of showers with embedded thunderstorms from Thursday night into Saturday. Severe and flash flooding impacts are not anticipated at this time.

2. Summer heat likely returns next week, with potential for unsettled conditions at times.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A shortwave trough will send an area of weak low pressure across the Great Lakes on Thursday and up into the St. Lawrence River Valley on Friday. The associated warm front will lift NE from the Lower Great Lakes and into the area Thursday night. Both the global models and CAMs support the development of a convective complex along this boundary which is likely to impact the area Thursday night into Friday morning. Expecting showers with a few thunderstorms. Severe weather and flash flooding are not anticipated at this time. While there is modest deep-layer shear, there is little instability to drive strong, deep convection.

The warm front lifts northeast and away from the area on Friday. A drier, more stable airmass follows with a deep- layered W/SW flow. There is slight chance of showers and/or thunderstorm moving in from the SW for the NYC/NJ metro toward evening. A weak cold front sags through Friday night pretty much uneventful, however, a wave of low pressure tracks in from the Ohio Valley states. NBM has shown a slight upward tick in rain chances with the best chance across LI, NYC, and NE NJ, due to the closer proximity to the frontal wave passing to the south. By Saturday afternoon, expecting less coverage with more scattered activity. There looks to be just enough digging of the upper trough and a developing NW flow aloft to keep the area on the northern edge of the system. However, this will have to be watched as the amplification of the upper trough looks to be slow and there are some solutions that keep the flow flatter with the low closer to the coast.

Temperatures during this time look to be near seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and low in the 50s and 60s.
It does become noticeably more humid behind the warm front late Thursday night into Friday.


KEY MESSAGE 2
The frontal system impacting the region to start the weekend looks to work far enough south by Sunday to allow surface high pressure to drop down from Canada and cause conditions to dry out. Meanwhile, mid level ridging begins to amplify over the Midwest, with the local area straddling the eastern periphery of this ridge.

Plenty of uncertainty with the strength and positioning of the ridge as it attempts to build east. Digging trough over the Western Atlantic may try to close off as the operational GFS and EC depict, which would lead to a cooler, more unsettled pattern. Conversely, their AI counterparts both offer shallower, more transient troughing that favors warmer weather with a quicker eastward expansion of the ridge. Adding to the low confidence is the possibility of any ridge rollers coming down into the area, producing more in the way of convection and muted temperatures.

NBM spread captures this uncertainty well, with 15+ degree separation between the 25th and 75th percentile high temperatures mid next week. For now, increasing confidence in seasonable summer heat returning early week, with at least the possibility for hotter weather mid to late next week, though many solutions still on the table.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure settles in overnight and remains through the morning.
A warm front approaches western terminals later in the afternoon Thursday and pushes across the western part of the area Thursday evening. The warm front is then expected to stall nearby to the north later Thursday night.

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period at most terminals, with the exception being for KSWF in the 24-30 hr portion (00-06z Fri) of the TAF.

Tonight winds diminish to 5 kt or less, and becoming mainly northerly again. On Thursday the winds start off mainly out of the SE at 5 to 10 kt, then increase to around or just above 10 kt and become more southerly towards or just after 18z. Occasional gusts around 20 knots are possible at the NE NJ terminals towards 18-20Z Thursday afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There remains uncertainty around the timing of a wind direction shift from the SE to S Thursday afternoon. Also there is low confidence in prevailing gusts, thus there are currently no prevailing wind gust group in TAFs for Thursday afternoon, with only TEMPO group at KEWR and KTEB.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday night: VFR early, then increasing chance of sub VFR with MVFR becoming likely late in showers. Chance of a thunderstorm late mainly for city and western terminals.

Friday-Saturday: MVFR or lower possible with showers at times.

Sunday: VFR.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-advisory conds are expected to prevail through the forecast period.

Rip Currents:

A moderate risk of rip currents remains in place both Thursday and Friday with 2 to 3 ft southerly swells at 5-7 sec periods.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.