Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fort Montgomery, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Periods of rain tonight could lead to nuisance flooding, especially in areas of poor drainage.

2) Localized icy conditions may develop on some untreated surfaces across parts of interior S CT and the LoHud Valley tonight into Friday morning.

3) Showers possible Saturday night with above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Wet and unsettled conditions continue through tonight as a frontal boundary remains draped over the Mid Atlantic and a wave of low pressure rides along it.

Any lull in steady rain this afternoon is short lived as the next round moves in this evening with more potent shortwave energy passing along the northern periphery of western Atlantic ridging.
The rain may fall moderate to heavy at times through much of the night, and coupled from the rain earlier today, as well as added liquid from snowmelt, could lead to pockets of nuisance flooding, especially in poor drainage areas. Also can't entirely rule out a rumble of thunder closer to the coast with a hint of weak elevated instability. Rainfall rates are expected to remain relatively low though, at or under a quarter of an inch per hour, and the risk for any flash flooding from this is low.
Total additional rainfall averages around an inch.

The precipitation tapers from west to east early Friday morning, with the steadiest exited by sunrise. Extensive cloud cover remains in place through the day though due to a low level wedge of cold air locked in beneath warmer air aloft.


KEY MESSAGE 2

Continuing to monitor the potential for pockets of freezing rain to develop tonight into Friday morning across some parts of the interior.

Surface temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s this afternoon fall back several degrees into this evening, aided by weak CAA in light NE flow as high pressure noses down. Most areas are expected to remain above freezing and see only plain rain tonight.
It's possible however a few pockets in the elevated interior could drop to near or just below the freezing mark as the precip is falling, leading to the rain freezing on contact with the coldest surfaces. Thermal profiles in soundings appear only marginally supportive at best in this occurring and confidence is low. Temperatures today have generally run several degrees higher than the colder, icier solutions offered in some guidance, and with this in mind, have opted to stay close to previous forecast with only localized icing concerns.

Special Weather Statement hoisted across the northern tier to highlight this threat. Temperatures are expected to be above solidly rise above freezing by mid Friday morning.


KEY MESSAGE 3
Showers may accompany the cold front passage Saturday night.
The NBM continues to indicate likely PoPs for this time frame, but this may be overdone given the most organized lift is expected to pass to well to our NW and the approaching upper level shortwaves deamplifies. Showers may end up more scattered overall with generally light rainfall amounts.

A warming trend will begin this weekend, especially Sunday (despite the passage of a cold front Saturday night), and continue through the middle of next week. On Sunday, decreasing clouds and lack of cold air behind the front will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 60s in NYC and NE NJ. Upper 50 to around 60 are expected in the Lower Hudson Valley and inland S CT. Upper 40s to middle 50s are expected along coastal areas thanks to the cold ocean and sound waters. Guidance may be warming temperatures a bit too quickly given there is not a strong push of SW flow until late in the day and evening.

A more persistent SW flow regime sets up early next week with a high pressure ridge intensifying to the southeast, almost like a Bermuda high type setup. This SW flow will allow for warmer air to move into the area resulting in a warming trend through at least the middle of next week. Monday will largely be the 60s, especially away from the coast. If the current forecast high of 64 at Central Park on Sunday verifies, it would be the first 60 degree temperature or higher since November 9, 2025. By Tuesday and Wednesday, high temperatures west of the NYC metro may climb into the upper 60s and low 70s.
Coastal areas and Long Island likely remain in the 50s with the cold water moderating the airmass. If there is more of a westerly component to the wind direction, warmer air could push further east until the occurrence of afternoon sea breezes.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A wave of low pressure, along a nearly stationary front south of Long Island, approaches later this evening, and passes through by Friday morning. Weak high pressure builds in from the north Friday.

Generally IFR to LIFR persists with light rain and drizzle.
Local VLIFR is possible at KHPN and KSWF. IFR to LIFR conditions persist into Friday morning with another round of light to locally moderate showers this evening into late tonight. There may even be a rumble of thunder at the NYC metro terminals 00Z to 06Z Friday. Slow improvement to MVFR is possible during Friday as high pressure builds into the region.

A NE to N flow generally 10 kt or less continue through the forecast. Winds may be stronger, around 12 kt, at the NYC terminals and KGON tonight. Also, gusts up to 20 kt are possible tonight, and are expected to be more occasional. Only KGON may have frequent gusts late tonight into Friday morning, however, with low confidence did not include in the forecast at this time.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A rumble of thunder is possible this evening, 00Z to around 05Z, mainly at KEWR and KJFK.

Timing of improving conditions Friday morning into the afternoon is uncertain.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday afternoon - Friday night: MVFR becoming IFR with a chance of rain Friday night.

Saturday: IFR, MVFR possible at times especially at night with rain showers at night. SW wind gusts 15 -20 kt at night.

Sunday: MVFR possible early, then VFR.

Monday - Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Increasing E flow into this evening will lead to winds near 25 kt on the ocean, back bays, and LI Sound E of the CT River. Small Craft Advisory goes into effect on these waters at 6pm this evening. The winds lighten Friday morning, but ocean seas remain elevated into at least the afternoon. Seas may remain elevated Friday night east of Moriches Inlet and the SCA may need to be extended in subsequent updates.

SCA conditions will become likely on the ocean Saturday afternoon and night ahead of a cold frontal passage with wind gusts near 25kt and seas 5-7 feet. Seas may be slow to subside on Sunday, but sub- SCA conditions on all waters are expected by Sunday night through Monday night.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.