Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Watch Hill, RI
September 15, 2024 10:22 PM EDT (02:22 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:27 AM Sunset 6:57 PM Moonrise 5:56 PM Moonset 3:00 AM |
ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 1004 Pm Edt Sun Sep 15 2024
Overnight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 foot at 4 seconds.
Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds and E 1 foot at 5 seconds.
Mon night - SE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds and E 1 foot at 7 seconds. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night and Wed - E winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers.
Wed night - E winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 foot at 4 seconds. Showers likely.
Thu through Fri - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1004 Pm Edt Sun Sep 15 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - Other than late night and/or early morning fog, high pressure over new england provides dry, tranquil boating weather through at least Tuesday. Then mid to late next week, low pressure develops off the mid atlantic coast and may drift northward. This may yield an increase in the risk for showers and building southeast swells.
FXUS61 KBOX 160153 AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 953 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Strong area of high pressure over the northeast will continue the dry and quiet weather through Tuesday. A broad low brings our next shot of unsettled weather mid to perhaps late in the week. Risk for showers greatest along the south coast. Turning drier late in the week and heading into the weekend with near to cooler than seasonable temperatures.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
955 PM Update...
Going forecast still looks on track, and other than incorporating current obs in the forecast, no significant changes were needed. Temps have cooled off into the mid to upper 50s for southeast MA and portions of RI, and in the lower to mid 60s more common north and west of I-95. Still have several more hrs of good radiational cooling ahead of us, and that could support patchy fog development in the CT Valley and around the I-495 corridor in eastern MA where radiational fog is more favored to develop.
Previous discussion...
High pressure across SNE will provide clear skies and light to calm winds setting the stage for excellent radiational cooling conditions. Lows will drop into the 40s in the traditional colder radiator locations, otherwise low-mid 50s. Current dewpoints are higher than the forecast low temps so we expect patchy radiation fog to develop, especially in the CT valley and portions of eastern MA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Monday...
Center of high pres shifts east of New Eng but ridging extends west across the region through Mon night. Expect lots of sunshine again although high clouds will begin to overspread the region from the south and west during the afternoon. Slight warming in the low levels so it'll be another warm day with highs possibly reaching low- mid 80s in the CT Valley and interior NE MA, with mid-upper 70s closer to the coast. The column is pretty dry with axis of lower PWATs across SNE so mixing will result in dewpoints dropping into the 40s and lower 50s.
Monday night...
High clouds well north of sub-tropical low pres will continue to increase and thicken across SNE through the night. Also, increasing shallow low level moisture will lead to development of stratus and fog near the south coast. More cloud cover will lead to milder temps with lows ranging through the 50s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Highlights
* Another dry and mild day Tue, but will have increasing cloudiness.
* Unsettled mid to perhaps late in the week with showers. Confidence highest along the immediate south coast. Northern periphery of precip shield still questionable at this point. Temps trending more seasonable.
* Turning drier this weekend
Tuesday...
A ridge still builds from New England into the Great Lakes region early on Tue. The ridge axis shifts offshore toward Nova Scotia by late Tue, while the cutoff over the TN/OH Valley slowly rotates northward. High pressure nudges into southern New England from just south of Nova Scotia on Tue.
Dry and quiet weather expected with high pressure still controlling the weather. Will see increasing high clouds as the day progresses ahead of the next system impacting our region. Can see this quite clearly per the 500-300 hPa RH with deterministic guidance, but think there will be breaks of sun, especially earlier in the day.
Mild once again with high temps ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s.
Tuesday Night through Friday...
Cutoff over the OH/TN Valley initially will gradually rotate northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic. A shortwave lifts toward southern New England on Wed on the eastern side of the cutoff before lifting through/offshore by Thu. Still may have the cutoff south of our region on Fri or absorbed into a trough, lot of uncertainty with hows things evolve. A broad low lifts toward our region Tue Night into Thu before shifting offshore.
This will be our next opportunity for showers across southern New England. Main change I've made from the NBM is to slow down the progression of PoPs as the NBM is much too fast/high in bringing chances in based on the consensus of deterministic guidance Tue Night through much of Wed. Really think that Wed PM through Thu NBM much more dialed in as this coincides with the placement/timing of a 20-30+ kt 925 hPa E to NEly low level jet. This is also where we tap into 1-2+ inch PWATs. At this point most confident in precip amounts/chances for the immediate south coast, whereas think there could be a tight N/S gradient with little if any precip along/north of the MA Turnpike. Tried to highlight this with higher chances of precip, but let NBM take over with lower chances further north given there is still uncertainty on where the jet lines up and how far north things track.
Other change made from the previous forecast was to remove the Day 4 ERO in collab with WPC. Antecedent conditions have been quite dry leading into this event. So, would take a fair amount of rainfall for flash flooding. Ensembles still in the two camps of EPS/GEPS being much wetter than the GEFS. At this point 24 hr probs of AOA 1 inch in a 24 hr period are low to mod (10-50 percent) centered mainly by the Thu timeframe, while the GEFS is still nil. Even with the wetter end of guidance (GEPS) the interquartile range for our area is anywhere from 0.25 to 2 inches of rain, which is much needed at this point. Highest amounts still centered more toward the south coast for this timeframe. High temperatures trending near to cooler than seasonable through this timeframe with the prolonged easterly flow.
Fair amount of uncertainty on Fri on if things clear out a bit quicker with high pressure nudging in from the north. Due to the uncertainty have just stuck with the NBM for now, which keeps slight chances of precip.
Saturday...
Ridge axis builds from the Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region. Though there still are questions on where the upper trough/cutoff in the prev period is located. High pressure nudges in or is overhead during this period.
Turning drier during this timeframe with high pressure back in control. Will definitely feel more like fall with high temps generally in the 60s.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight and Monday...High confidence.
VFR, but patchy late night MVFR to IFR stratus and fog may develop in the CT valley and portions of interior eastern MA.
E-SE wind 5-10 kt this afternoon, light to calm winds tonight, then S-SE wind 5-10 kt Monday.
Monday night...Moderate confidence.
Areas of late night MVFR/IFR stratus and fog may develop near the south coast overnight, otherwise VFR.
KBOS TAF...High confidence.
KBDL TAF...High confidence.
Patchy stratus/fog developing roughly 06-09Z until daybreak.
Any fog developing should clear out quickly.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: VFR.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Monday night...High confidence.
High pres over the waters will result in favorable boating conditions with winds below 20 kt, varying from E to S, and seas 3 ft or less. Areas of marine fog expected to develop over south coastal waters Mon night leading to reduced vsbys.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 953 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Strong area of high pressure over the northeast will continue the dry and quiet weather through Tuesday. A broad low brings our next shot of unsettled weather mid to perhaps late in the week. Risk for showers greatest along the south coast. Turning drier late in the week and heading into the weekend with near to cooler than seasonable temperatures.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
955 PM Update...
Going forecast still looks on track, and other than incorporating current obs in the forecast, no significant changes were needed. Temps have cooled off into the mid to upper 50s for southeast MA and portions of RI, and in the lower to mid 60s more common north and west of I-95. Still have several more hrs of good radiational cooling ahead of us, and that could support patchy fog development in the CT Valley and around the I-495 corridor in eastern MA where radiational fog is more favored to develop.
Previous discussion...
High pressure across SNE will provide clear skies and light to calm winds setting the stage for excellent radiational cooling conditions. Lows will drop into the 40s in the traditional colder radiator locations, otherwise low-mid 50s. Current dewpoints are higher than the forecast low temps so we expect patchy radiation fog to develop, especially in the CT valley and portions of eastern MA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Monday...
Center of high pres shifts east of New Eng but ridging extends west across the region through Mon night. Expect lots of sunshine again although high clouds will begin to overspread the region from the south and west during the afternoon. Slight warming in the low levels so it'll be another warm day with highs possibly reaching low- mid 80s in the CT Valley and interior NE MA, with mid-upper 70s closer to the coast. The column is pretty dry with axis of lower PWATs across SNE so mixing will result in dewpoints dropping into the 40s and lower 50s.
Monday night...
High clouds well north of sub-tropical low pres will continue to increase and thicken across SNE through the night. Also, increasing shallow low level moisture will lead to development of stratus and fog near the south coast. More cloud cover will lead to milder temps with lows ranging through the 50s.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Highlights
* Another dry and mild day Tue, but will have increasing cloudiness.
* Unsettled mid to perhaps late in the week with showers. Confidence highest along the immediate south coast. Northern periphery of precip shield still questionable at this point. Temps trending more seasonable.
* Turning drier this weekend
Tuesday...
A ridge still builds from New England into the Great Lakes region early on Tue. The ridge axis shifts offshore toward Nova Scotia by late Tue, while the cutoff over the TN/OH Valley slowly rotates northward. High pressure nudges into southern New England from just south of Nova Scotia on Tue.
Dry and quiet weather expected with high pressure still controlling the weather. Will see increasing high clouds as the day progresses ahead of the next system impacting our region. Can see this quite clearly per the 500-300 hPa RH with deterministic guidance, but think there will be breaks of sun, especially earlier in the day.
Mild once again with high temps ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s.
Tuesday Night through Friday...
Cutoff over the OH/TN Valley initially will gradually rotate northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic. A shortwave lifts toward southern New England on Wed on the eastern side of the cutoff before lifting through/offshore by Thu. Still may have the cutoff south of our region on Fri or absorbed into a trough, lot of uncertainty with hows things evolve. A broad low lifts toward our region Tue Night into Thu before shifting offshore.
This will be our next opportunity for showers across southern New England. Main change I've made from the NBM is to slow down the progression of PoPs as the NBM is much too fast/high in bringing chances in based on the consensus of deterministic guidance Tue Night through much of Wed. Really think that Wed PM through Thu NBM much more dialed in as this coincides with the placement/timing of a 20-30+ kt 925 hPa E to NEly low level jet. This is also where we tap into 1-2+ inch PWATs. At this point most confident in precip amounts/chances for the immediate south coast, whereas think there could be a tight N/S gradient with little if any precip along/north of the MA Turnpike. Tried to highlight this with higher chances of precip, but let NBM take over with lower chances further north given there is still uncertainty on where the jet lines up and how far north things track.
Other change made from the previous forecast was to remove the Day 4 ERO in collab with WPC. Antecedent conditions have been quite dry leading into this event. So, would take a fair amount of rainfall for flash flooding. Ensembles still in the two camps of EPS/GEPS being much wetter than the GEFS. At this point 24 hr probs of AOA 1 inch in a 24 hr period are low to mod (10-50 percent) centered mainly by the Thu timeframe, while the GEFS is still nil. Even with the wetter end of guidance (GEPS) the interquartile range for our area is anywhere from 0.25 to 2 inches of rain, which is much needed at this point. Highest amounts still centered more toward the south coast for this timeframe. High temperatures trending near to cooler than seasonable through this timeframe with the prolonged easterly flow.
Fair amount of uncertainty on Fri on if things clear out a bit quicker with high pressure nudging in from the north. Due to the uncertainty have just stuck with the NBM for now, which keeps slight chances of precip.
Saturday...
Ridge axis builds from the Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region. Though there still are questions on where the upper trough/cutoff in the prev period is located. High pressure nudges in or is overhead during this period.
Turning drier during this timeframe with high pressure back in control. Will definitely feel more like fall with high temps generally in the 60s.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight and Monday...High confidence.
VFR, but patchy late night MVFR to IFR stratus and fog may develop in the CT valley and portions of interior eastern MA.
E-SE wind 5-10 kt this afternoon, light to calm winds tonight, then S-SE wind 5-10 kt Monday.
Monday night...Moderate confidence.
Areas of late night MVFR/IFR stratus and fog may develop near the south coast overnight, otherwise VFR.
KBOS TAF...High confidence.
KBDL TAF...High confidence.
Patchy stratus/fog developing roughly 06-09Z until daybreak.
Any fog developing should clear out quickly.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: VFR.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Monday night...High confidence.
High pres over the waters will result in favorable boating conditions with winds below 20 kt, varying from E to S, and seas 3 ft or less. Areas of marine fog expected to develop over south coastal waters Mon night leading to reduced vsbys.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NLHC3 | 13 mi | 53 min | 63°F | 69°F | 30.36 | |||
| MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY | 19 mi | 53 min | 63°F | 68°F | 30.30 | |||
| NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI | 31 mi | 53 min | ENE 1G | 66°F | 68°F | 30.37 | ||
| QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI | 31 mi | 53 min | WSW 2.9G | 65°F | 30.37 | |||
| PDVR1 | 32 mi | 53 min | SSW 1.9G | 66°F | 30.36 | 55°F | ||
| NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI | 36 mi | 98 min | W 1.9 | 57°F | 30.36 | 51°F | ||
| PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI | 36 mi | 53 min | SSW 1.9G | 62°F | 30.40 | |||
| CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI | 39 mi | 53 min | SE 7G | 66°F | 71°F | 30.37 | ||
| PVDR1 | 41 mi | 53 min | SE 6G | 67°F | 30.38 | |||
| FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI | 42 mi | 53 min | SSE 5.1G | 67°F | 68°F | 30.37 | ||
| 44085 | 44 mi | 53 min | 65°F | 65°F | 2 ft | |||
| BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA | 44 mi | 83 min | ESE 11G | 64°F | 30.37 | |||
| BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA | 45 mi | 53 min | SSW 2.9G | 65°F | 30.37 | |||
| FRXM3 | 45 mi | 53 min | 63°F | 53°F | ||||
| 44097 - Block Island, RI (154) | 46 mi | 57 min | 67°F | 3 ft | ||||
| FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA | 46 mi | 53 min | 65°F | 70°F | 30.38 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KWST
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KWST
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KWST
Wind History graph: WST
(wind in knots)Watch Hill Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:50 AM EDT 0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:59 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 06:28 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:46 AM EDT 2.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:54 PM EDT 0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:56 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:55 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 07:11 PM EDT 3.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:50 AM EDT 0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:59 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 06:28 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:46 AM EDT 2.66 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:54 PM EDT 0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:56 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:55 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 07:11 PM EDT 3.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Watch Hill Point, Rhode Island, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.2 |
| 2 am |
| 0.4 |
| 3 am |
| 0.8 |
| 4 am |
| 1.4 |
| 5 am |
| 2.1 |
| 6 am |
| 2.5 |
| 7 am |
| 2.6 |
| 8 am |
| 2.4 |
| 9 am |
| 1.8 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 3 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
The Race
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:26 AM EDT -3.10 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:00 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 03:45 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:34 AM EDT 2.66 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:51 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:51 PM EDT -2.97 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:58 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:56 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:54 PM EDT 2.95 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:56 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:08 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:26 AM EDT -3.10 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:00 AM EDT Moonset
Sun -- 03:45 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:29 AM EDT Sunrise
Sun -- 06:34 AM EDT 2.66 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:51 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:51 PM EDT -2.97 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:58 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:56 PM EDT Moonrise
Sun -- 06:54 PM EDT 2.95 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:56 PM EDT Sunset
Sun -- 10:08 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -3 |
| 1 am |
| -3 |
| 2 am |
| -2.2 |
| 3 am |
| -1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 1.7 |
| 6 am |
| 2.5 |
| 7 am |
| 2.6 |
| 8 am |
| 2.1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| -0.2 |
| 11 am |
| -1.6 |
| 12 pm |
| -2.7 |
| 1 pm |
| -3 |
| 2 pm |
| -2.4 |
| 3 pm |
| -1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 0 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 11 pm |
| -1.4 |
Boston, MA,
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