Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Watch Hill, RI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:53PM Thursday January 23, 2020 1:22 PM EST (18:22 UTC) Moonrise 7:19AMMoonset 4:41PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 116 Pm Est Thu Jan 23 2020
This afternoon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain.
Sat night..SE winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun and Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres over the waters today, then a weak cold front crosses the waters tonight followed by high pres building to the north Fri. Low pres will move ne from the mid atlc region Sat, tracking across southern new eng Sat night then into maine on Sun. The low pres will move into the maritimes Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Watch Hill, RI
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location: 41.31, -71.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 231455 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 955 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain in control through Friday with dry and mild days and a cold night tonight. A storm is expected to impact the region Saturday into Saturday night with mostly rain and gusty coastal winds, but some snow is possible over the higher elevations in northern MA. Mainly dry and seasonable conditions return Sunday lasting into the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

Surface high pressure covers much of the Eastern Seaboard, bringing subsidence and mostly clear skies. Satellite and observations show some cirrus moving over the region, and more upstream. Skies may not be perfectly clear, but sunny nonetheless.

Temperatures remained cold at 9 AM, with the warmer temperatures ranging from the St Lawrence Valley through Western NY/PA and Ohio. Upper air temps at 7 AM showed 0C over Albany at 950 mb . equiv to -10C at 850 mb for calculation purposes . and 3C over Buffalo at 950 mb . equiv to -7C at 850 mb for calculation purposes. With mixing to 950 mb, this would suggest max sfc temps in the low to mid 40s. The forecast backs off on max temps by a couple of degrees but still targets the 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Tonight .

A weak mid level shortwave approaching from the SW will bring some increase in high clouds. Still decent radiational cooling with light winds yielding lows in the teens in the colder locations and mostly 20s elsewhere. Weak frontal boundary will slip south across SNE after midnight with a wind shift to light north.

Friday .

Frontal boundary south of New Eng with high pres building to the north will result in low level easterly winds developing. Cross sections show increasing low level moisture from the north with lower clouds developing in the afternoon across northern MA. Otherwise, partly sunny skies. Temps will be a bit cooler due to E/NE winds with highs upper 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Highlights .

* Dry weather Friday night with above normal temperatures.

* Coastal storm this weekend initially bringing a cold rain for much of southern New England. Best opportunity for snowfall is across the highest elevations of the interior where things begin as a wintry mix before transitioning to rain.

* Scattered snow showers across the region late on Sunday into early Monday, then dry through mid week.

* Slightly cooler temperatures after the weekend.

Details .

Friday night into Saturday morning .

Large surface high remains overhead though on its way out, with a mid level ridge axis crossing New England during this period. This keeps things dry and about 10-15 degrees above normal overnight on S/SE flow in the low levels (+2 to 3 C at 850 mb). Most locations dip into the mid/upper 30s or upper 20s (inland). Average low temps for late Jan are in the teens and low 20s. Winds are light but high clouds should keep us from radiating too well.

Saturday and Sunday .

Again with the trend, unfortunate for snow lovers, toward the north and west with the track of this weekend's storm system. Signs point more and more to a cold rain for the majority of southern New England on Saturday. Confidence is very high that a soaking storm system arrives over the weekend, while chances of snow outside of the highest elevations are decreasing. A 500 mb trough and surface low will dig into the mid Atlantic on Saturday. A secondary low along the frontal boundary strengthens as it crosses over southern New England (or even potentially northern New England if some of the newest guidance has anything to say about it). Further up at 700 mb where yesterday the low center looked to cross directly over southern New England it now has trended northward, crossing northern New England. As a result, the bulk of the cold air we would need to see more snow is too far north. At the moment the most likely solution on the front end of the event looks to be a cold rain for most, with a rain/snow mix in interior lower elevations, and snow in the highest elevations of the Berkshires and Worcester Hills. Things will then change to rain as the low pulls in warmer low level air and this will continue into the overnight hours. By early overnight hours the dry slot moves into the region and erodes the heaviest rain from the west through the overnight hours so by sunrise most of the precip will have fallen. There is potential for a significant rainfall (QPF values from 1 PM Sat to 7 am Sunday approach 1.25 or 1.5 inches in spots). A few inches of snow in the highest elevations of the Berkshires is possible but totals continue to be lowered.

Sunday the low lifts into the Gulf of Maine and colder air will wrap back around the low, but the bulk of the moisture is gone by then so most will stay dry. Some scattered light snow showers are possible; best chance will be the orographically favored western MA/CT. No real accumulation is expected except up to an inch in the Berkshires perhaps. Winds with this system will be gusty, picking up on Saturday afternoon/evening with gusts 25 to 30 mph possible, closer to 40 mph along the southeast coast. Gale headlines may be necessary over the waters where gusts will be even greater.

Monday through Wednesday .

Drying out Monday and into midweek. The low is slow it exit thanks in part to an area of high pressure off the coast of eastern Canada. However, it eventually moves off and is replaced by high pressure with drier air moving in. We're looking at partly sunny skies for the first half of the work week with cooler temperatures, but still warmer than normal. Monday is the warmest in the low 40s before highs cool a few degrees Tues/Wed.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday/ . High confidence.

Through tonight . VFR. SW wind 10 kt or less today becoming light N after midnight.

Friday . VFR, but areas of MVFR cigs developing across northern MA in the afternoon. NE wind 10 kt or less.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance FZRA.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA, chance SN, slight chance FZRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance RA, chance FZRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN, slight chance RA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

MARINE. Short Term /through Friday/ . High confidence.

SW flow today with winds turning N late tonight behind a cold front. E/NE flow Fri. Flat seas this afternoon then slowly building late tonight into Fri, especially NE MA waters as winds turn NE, but remaining below 5 ft.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain.

Saturday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . KJC/BW NEAR TERM . WTB/KJC/BW SHORT TERM . KJC LONG TERM . BW AVIATION . WTB/KJC/BW MARINE . WTB/KJC/BW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 12 mi42 min WSW 9.9 G 11 39°F 1025.7 hPa26°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 13 mi52 min SW 5.1 G 7 41°F 41°F1028.4 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi52 min 39°F 38°F1028.9 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 31 mi52 min SSW 11 G 13 40°F 34°F1028 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi58 min WSW 7 G 8 40°F 37°F1028.2 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi97 min WSW 6 41°F 1029 hPa28°F
PRUR1 36 mi52 min 43°F 23°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi52 min WSW 6 G 9.9 43°F 1028.5 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi52 min SSW 7 G 8.9 40°F 38°F1027.9 hPa
PVDR1 41 mi52 min WSW 8 G 9.9 43°F 1028.1 hPa19°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi52 min W 6 G 7 44°F 36°F1028 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 44 mi82 min W 13 G 14 39°F 1029 hPa (-1.3)
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi22 min 45°F3 ft
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 45 mi52 min SW 12 G 13 40°F 1028 hPa
FRXM3 45 mi58 min 40°F 29°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi58 min 41°F 37°F1028.4 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI4 mi29 minWSW 12 G 1610.00 miFair42°F21°F45%1028.3 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT10 mi26 minSW 910.00 miFair41°F27°F57%1027.9 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY16 mi28 minW 6 mi43°F25°F49%1028.6 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI17 mi26 minW 810.00 miFair41°F28°F62%1028.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWST

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW6SW5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W8SW10SW12
G16
1 day ago53N44CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmN4NW74N53
2 days agoN9
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N9NW74NW45W3W3NW4CalmCalm3NW3NW4NW3N3CalmNW3N8N12N86N8

Tide / Current Tables for Watch Hill Point, Rhode Island
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Watch Hill Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:16 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     2.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:05 PM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:41 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:35 PM EST     2.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.2-0.10.311.82.62.92.82.31.710.40-0.2-00.51.21.92.32.421.40.8

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:55 AM EST     -2.84 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:04 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:18 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     2.86 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:16 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST     -3.45 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:42 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:46 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:41 PM EST     2.74 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:51 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.5-2.8-2.4-1.5-0.11.42.52.92.61.80.4-1.2-2.6-3.4-3.3-2.5-1.20.41.82.62.72.31.2-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.