Saturday, October16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Noank, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 6:07PM Saturday October 16, 2021 3:00 PM EDT (19:00 UTC) Moonrise 4:45PMMoonset 2:35AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 127 Pm Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon and Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night through Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 127 Pm Edt Sat Oct 16 2021
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Initial high pres over the waters shifts east today, bringing increased southerly winds. A strong cold front to move into the waters tonight with a band of gusty showers or possible Thunder along with a sharp wind shift to wnw. Low pres then slowly moves into the maritimes, bringing mainly dry weather but with gusty wnw winds Sunday thru Mon. For additional information on possible hazardous weather for the week ahead, please visit www.weather.gov/boston/ehwo


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Noank, CT
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location: 41.32, -71.98     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 161803 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 203 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front will approach the area today, passing through during the late afternoon and early evening hours. High pressure will then gradually build in from the west through mid week, while low pressure spins across the Canadian Maritimes. A frontal system approaches late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/.

Forecast on track, monitoring fine line of low topped convection approaching eastern PA. CAMs continue in good agreement with this fine line intensifying a bit through mid afternoon as it moves through a 500 to 1000 J/KG SBCAPE environment across E PA, but still signaling that it will weaken as it moves into western portions of the local Tri- State late this afternoon into this evening with an eastward translating but weakening and shrinking instability axis.

Will be monitoring the radar and environmental trends through this afternoon, as the line moves through the strongly deep- layer sheared but weak instability environment. An isolated to scattered threat for strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts still exists, mainly west of the Hudson. There is also a non- zero threat for a brief and weak tornado for this area, typical of these high shear/low cape fine line events.

The thunderstorm activity should quickly weakens as it approaches the NYC/NJ metro and coast, but precipitation loading and developed cold pool should maintain the threat for a strong gust front to work through western portions of the local Tri-State early this evening, which will likely result in widespread gusty winds of 35 to 45 mph, and possibly locally up to 50 mph. This could cause some minor tree damage with the line.

A strong upper trough will move across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states today, sending a strong cold front east. The front will reach far western sections of the Lower Hudson valley late in the afternoon, then progresses across the remainder of the area during the early evening hours.

Mid and high level clouds this morning should give way to a period of mostly sunny skies. High temperatures will get well into the 70s and lower 80s for the metro NY/NJ. This is 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Lows Sunday morning will be much cooler than recent nights with upper 40s far interior, to the lower and mid 50s at the coast. This is still above normal.

As for winds, a southerly low-level jet preceding the front will bring potential for southerly gusts of 30-40 mph along the coastal plain late this afternoon, perhaps even a few higher gusts. NW winds of 30 to 40 mph also likely behind the cold front for a short time.

Post-frontal showers will likely last several hours behind the convective fine line due to large-scale ascent and mid level jet dynamics.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The negatively tilting upper trough will lift across the Northeast Sunday into Monday. Steep daytime lapse rates with the cold pool aloft and deep cyclonic flow may allow for some scattered afternoon showers and/or sprinkles. There should be plenty of instability clouds each afternoon as well. Sunday looks to be the better chance than Monday due to a bit more instability. Temperatures will also return to seasonable levels if not slightly below by Monday.

Gutsy W/NW winds will prevail during this time with gusts up to 20 kt during the daytime hours.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. The long term starts out with an omega block pattern set up across much of the country, with an upper level low over southeastern Canada and another over the Rockies. The forecast area will be situated between the two, residing just west of the departing trough associated with the Canadian upper low. At the surface, high pressure will build in from the southwest. Because of the blocky nature of the upper pattern, expect a rather persistent pattern during this time frame, with features changing slowly through the week. This will mean dry conditions Monday night through the day Thursday as the surface high remains remains to our south, but ridging north into our area. A cold front approaches from the west late Thursday and moves through Thursday night. There appears to be little moisture to work with as the ECMWF brings the front through dry. The GFS brings some precipitation through, but only about a quarter of an inch or less, with the higher amounts across the Lower Hudson Valley. High pressure builds in at the end of the week.

As for temperatures, a bit of a warming trend is expected as the ridge associated with the omega block moves east, but deamplifies as it does so. So although warmer temperatures are expected, not expecting temperatures nearly as warm as this past week. Highs will generally be in the 60s to lower 70s, with lows in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A cold front, through eastern upstate New York, and moving into eastern Pennsylvania at 17Z, will move through the terminals this evening, from around 22Z west to 03Z east. Thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front with showers lingering behind the front for a few hours. High pressure begins to build toward the area late tonight into Sunday morning.

VFR through much of the period, except MVFR ceilings along portions of the Connecticut and Long Island coasts, that may lift to VFR late this afternoon. Brief MVFR conditions, possibly IFR, are likely with any thunderstorms.

S winds 10-20 kt with gusts upwards of 25-30 kt, with the highest potential along coastal terminals, and during the afternoon. Winds shift to the W to NW with the frontal passage with gusts remaining through this evening at the NYC metro area terminals. Winds remain from the west to northwest through the end of the forecast period. There may be occasional gusts developing Sunday morning.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Highest wind gusts this afternoon are expected at KJFK with southerly winds sustained at 15 to 20 kt with gusts at times 30 to 35 kt.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through late this afternoon which could bring wind gusts of around 35 kt. However this line is expected to weaken as it approaches and moves through the metro terminals, so there is uncertainty as to how high the winds become, and how strong the thunderstorms will be. Expect thunderstorms to be through the metro area by 00Z Sunday.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Sunday afternoon - Monday. VFR. W to NW winds gusting around 20 kt mainly daytime/eve possible. Tuesday - Thursday. VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Southerly winds increase today ahead of an approaching cold front. The SCA remains in effect for all waters with southerly gusts of 25-30 kt. An isolated gust to gale force is possible, especially nearshore. Winds on the non-ocean waters should weaken later this evening behind the cold front, but 25 kt gusts are still possible on the ocean. Seas will gradually subside below 5 ft late tonight.

A moderate W/NW flow will bring marginal SCA conditions Sunday into Monday with the best chance of 25 kt+ gusts on the ocean waters. Confidence was not high enough at this time to extend SCA into this time period.

Waves may reach 5 ft on the outer portions of the ocean zones Monday night and Tuesday. Waves diminish Tuesday night and remain below SCA criteria through Wednesday night.

Winds may occasionally gust to 25 kt on the ocean waters Monday night, but become more prevailing for Tuesday and are possible across all marine zones except the harbor and possibly the western sound as the pressure gradient increases between the building high to our southwest and low pressure over southeastern Canada. Winds diminish Tuesday night and then should remain below SCA levels through Wednesday night.

HYDROLOGY. Average rainfall late this afternoon and evening is one quarter to one half inch. The WPC PQPF 90th percentile 24-hr QPF ending Sunday morning shows worst-case potential between 1/2 to 1 inch of rain NW of NYC, so localized minor issues cannot be ruled out. No flash flooding is expected due to the progressive nature of the system.

Otherwise, no hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.

CLIMATE. Temperatures today will be unseasonably warm, and may approach these record highs:

Sat 10/16

EWR: 86/1956 BDR: 80/1975 NYC: 84/1956 LGA: 82/1958 JFK: 79/2008 ISP: 80/1963

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JP/DW NEAR TERM . NV/DW SHORT TERM . DW LONG TERM . JP AVIATION . MET MARINE . JP/DW HYDROLOGY . JP/DW CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 5 mi51 min S 16G17 70°F 1006.5 hPa51°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 6 mi61 min 70°F 68°F1007.4 hPa (-2.7)
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 19 mi61 min 70°F 68°F1007.4 hPa (-2.6)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 35 mi61 min S 20G24 69°F 67°F1007.3 hPa (-2.6)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 37 mi61 min S 14G18 70°F 67°F1007.7 hPa (-2.6)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 38 mi61 min S 18G23 71°F 69°F3 ft
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 40 mi76 min SSW 8 70°F 1008 hPa66°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 40 mi61 min SW 7G16 70°F 1008.1 hPa (-2.7)
PRUR1 41 mi61 min 70°F 70°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 43 mi41 min S 12G16 69°F 68°F1007.4 hPa66°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 43 mi61 min W 17G24 69°F 68°F1006.8 hPa (-2.4)
PVDR1 45 mi61 min S 15G18 71°F 1007.2 hPa (-2.6)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 46 mi61 min S 12G19 73°F 66°F1007 hPa (-2.8)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 49 mi61 min SSW 17G19 71°F 69°F1006 hPa (-2.8)

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT4 mi65 minS 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F67°F87%1006.8 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI10 mi68 minS 1010.00 miOvercast71°F67°F87%1007.4 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY17 mi67 minVar 6 mi72°F68°F87%1007.8 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI23 mi65 minS 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F65°F84%1008 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGON

Wind History from GON (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S10S8S8SE7S7S7SW7S5SW7S6S5S7S5S6S8S10S14S13S11S12S11S14S16
1 day agoNW8NW7E6E60000000000N400N30SW3S3S4S5S9
2 days agoSW8S7S7S7S8SW7SW7W4W4W5W5W7W6NW3NW400NW3N8N9N10N8N10N8

Tide / Current Tables for Noank, Mystic River entrance, Connecticut
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Noank
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Sat -- 12:46 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:46 AM EDT     2.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:08 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:07 PM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:57 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     2.62 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:08 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:07 PM EDT     -2.91 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 06:25 PM EDT     2.63 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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