Misquamicut, RI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Misquamicut, RI

June 13, 2024 4:45 PM EDT (20:45 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:11 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM
Moonrise 12:09 PM   Moonset 12:49 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 404 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024

Tonight - SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 8 seconds and sw 2 ft at 4 seconds. Patchy dense fog this evening with vsby 1 nm or less.

Fri - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and S 2 ft at 8 seconds.

Fri night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and se 2 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog. Showers likely.

Sat - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds and W 1 foot at 5 seconds. Showers likely in the morning.

Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 8 seconds and ne 1 foot at 3 seconds.

Sun and Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 8 seconds and N 1 foot at 3 seconds.

Mon through Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 404 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - High pressure provides dry weather and southwest winds through Friday. Then very late Fri into Fri night, an approaching cold front will be accompanied by scattered showers and Thunderstorms, possibly accompanied by strong winds, downpours and frequent lightning, especially near shore. Saturday morning a few showers may linger, before the cold front exits offshore Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, a tropical low will likely track southeast of the 40n/70w benchmark Saturday, then across eastern georges bank Sat night and finally out to sea. High pressure builds over new england Sunday, then offshore Monday. This will yield a prolong period of ssw flow next week along with a very warm airmass.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Misquamicut, RI
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 131956 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 356 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

SYNOPSIS

Warm and muggy Friday with dewpoints in the 60s. Scattered severe thunderstorms possible with the passage of a cold front Friday afternoon and evening. Canadian high pressure will provide a comfortable Father's Day weekend along with dry conditions. Turning unseasonably hot next week as an anomolous mid-level ridge develops across the eastern third of the country. Prolonged period of heat and humidly could linger well into the end of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/

Pleasant conditions are expected through the overnight with early summer like humidity building into the region on southwest flow. Coastal sea breezes that developed, much to the chagrin of guidance, will flip back to the SW after sunset this evening.
While dewpoints are already in the mid 60s along the south coast and Islands, dews will continue to climb overnight to similar values region wide. Given high dewpoints and SW flow, saw a bit of marine stratus flirt with Nantucket and Block Island around the lunch hour. Do expect stratus and fog to impact the islands and perhaps immediate south coast, especially around Buzzards Bay, this evening as dews continue to increase.
Fog will be hard to come by away from the immediate coast given gusty winds, with 925mb LLJ of around 25-30kt, keeping gusts elevated between ~07-12kt overnight.

So, while mainly clear tonight, dewpoints will be the bound on lows, which will range in the mid 60s overnight.



SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

With overnight lows only bottoming out in the mid 60s, temperatures will very quickly warm into the 80s by late morning, which will provide a sounding board for convection driven by a cold front/shortwave crossing the region tomorrow afternoon/evening. As mentioned by previous shifts, we continue to favor a more linear convective line compared to discrete cells given deep layer shear between 30-40kt.

The 12Z HRRR provided a window of greatest certainty regarding when the convective line will begin to impact our northwestern zones, but uncertainty remains between individual members, with the ARW and FV3 firing off storms as early as 16Z and the NAMNest delaying the convective potential until as late at 19Z across western MA and Central CT. While forcing continues to look robust with generous height falls and reasonably strong jet dynamics, tomorrow's convective potential will rely heavily on a narrow band of instability and timing of the line.

So, lets talk instability. Hi-res and global sounding continue to portray a rather significant amount of uncertainty regarding how much fuel will be available. The RAP, perhaps one of our most aggressive pieces of guidance, depicts and environment of MUCAPE values exceeding 2000J/kg ahead of the cold front. Conversely, the NAM and GFS show much more modest instability values ranging from about 600-1200J/kg MUCAPE, with greater instability to our north and west across VT and NY. The best lapse rates will also be to our north and west, but model soundings show that MLLR may exceed 6.5C/km across the western half of the CWA tomorrow afternoon (which, for southern New England isn't too shabby).
MLLR wane quickly approaching the I-95 corridor where they fall to about 6C/km along the I-495 corridor and less than 5.5C/km SE of I-95. Given the gradient in both instability and lapse rates, do expect a rather robust line of convection that will reach approximately the Worcester area between 22-00Z tomorrow evening before the line wanes quickly as it progresses eastward. There remains a distinct possibility that storms decay so quickly tomorrow evening that places from Boston to Providence, south and east, see just some light to moderate rain with any convection dissipating before moving into the more stable airmass. DCAPE values climbing to near 700J/kg and robust low level lapse rates continue to pinpoint strong to damaging wind gusts as the primary severe threat with the convective line. Temperatures aloft remain too mild for a substantial hail threat and near zero helicity/0-1km shear quells any tornado concerns.

PWATs have trended downward compared to yesterday, dropping from ~1.7-1.8" to around 1.5", which is a trend that will, combined with the lack of training storms, mitigate widespread flooding. Still, "long skinny CAPE" is supportive of downpours, depicted by the HRRR PMM that highlights pixels of 1.5-2", especially across the CT River Valley, in some convective cells tomorrow afternoon, which could generate urban and poor drainage flooding in places like Springfield and Hartford.

While the primary convective line will wane after sunset, trailing weak surface low/mid level shortwave will allow some showers to backfill across the region tomorrow night through early Saturday.
Models are poorly depicting how robust these lingering showers will be, but ultimately expect them to shift southeast of the region by 12Z. Trough axis clears the region around the same time which will allow much drier airmass to filter into the region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Highlights:

* A few showers possible Saturday morning, otherwise a dry and comfortable Father's Day weekend.

* Seasonably warm on Monday, becoming hot and humid Tuesday through the end of next week with heat indicies potentially reaching between 95F and 104F.

* Early summer heat could challenge daily record high temperatures.

Father's Day Weekend...

Few showers linger Saturday morning, mainly across southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island as a mid-level trough moves east and away from the region. By no means a washout for Saturday, PWATs fall dramatically as Canadian high pressure moves into the area. This yields a comfortable air mass, dewpoints fall from the 50s into the 40s! As for highs, low to mid 70s near the coast and upper 70s to low 80s inland. Overnight into Sunday morning will be cooler, given the dry atmosphere and weaker wind fields, should have effective radiational cooling for many locations, thus have deviated away from the NBM and favored the cooler MAV and MET blend. Areas like KORE could experience morning lows in the low 40s! Elsewhere, low temperatures are expected to drop to the upper 40s and low 50s along the coast, the exception would be Boston, where lows are generally in the mid 50s. Comfortable conditions follow on Father's Day, with mainly sunny conditions thanks to high pressure, low humidity values and highs in the mid 70s to 80 degrees.

Next Week...

As advertised, we continue to expect well above normal temperatures heading into next week. Starting Monday, mid-level high pressure should be located over the southeast, leading to increasing mid- level heights across the northeast. Could be a rouge shower Monday afternoon with shortwave energy passing to our north, albeit a low chance at this point. Highs warm into the low and middle 80s.

Tuesday into Thursday, the mid-level high expands into the northeast with continued signals this will be an anomolous event. NAEFS ensemble situation table indicates the 500mb heights and surface temperatures could exceed forecast model climatological reference points, in addition to PWATs nearing 97th to 99th percentile!

So, hot and humid conditions are expected with peak intensity around Wednesday and Thursday. Given this is still a week away, there is still time to iron out off the wrinkles/details. Additionally, there are high probabilites, greater than 60 percent, that highs could exceed 90 degrees across northern Connecticut, the majority of Massachusetts (away from the southeastern portion of the state, Cape Cod, and the Island), and northern Rhode Island starting Tuesday, with the peak Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. It is not out of the question a few spots could reach 100F from Wednesday to Friday.
There are low probabilities on DESI, around 20 to 40 percent, for areas such as the northern Connecticut River Valley and Merrimack Valley. Likely will challenge daily record highs, see the climate section for those details.

This period appear more dry than not, but with a juiced up atmosphere and a few bouts of shortwave energy passing through, can't rule out pop-up showers during this period as well.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

20z TAF Update...

Through tonight: High Confidence

Coastal sea breezes will dissipate near sunset with dominant SW flow takign hold overnight. Gusts will remain between 10-15kt.
Saw some stratus and fog flirt with the islands around lunchtime on Thursday, and with dewpoints surging into the mid 60s and strong SW, do expect it to redevelop tonight at least at Nantucket, with greater uncertainty for Cape terminals. Fog unlikely across the interior.

Tomorrow: Moderate Confidence

VFR and dry in the morning with southwesterly flow.
Thunderstorms will develop across eastern NY and Western MA and CT in the mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms then move east and begin to weaken in the evening. Some storms may have strong winds and torrential rainfall. High confience in impact to western terminals, low confidence in thunder at BOS and PVD as storms will wane very quickly as they approach the coast around sunset. Winds shift the W/NW behind frontal passage.

Tomorrow Night: Moderate Confidence

Convection dissipates quickly after 00Z, but lingering shower activity will backfill across the region, pulling east from about ORH to the Cape betwen 06-12Z. Will see a period of lower cigs associated with these showers but do not expected tremendous vsby reductions. VFR redevelops from west to east early Saturday morning.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

High confidence in VFR throgh 16Z tomorrow, lesser confidence in convective potential tomorrow evening as storms weaken.
Seabreeze dissipates with sunset this evening, with winds SW 10-20kt head of cold front. Winds shift to the W/NW behind the frontal passage tomorrow evening. MVFR to possible IFR in showers and potential thunderstorms.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

VFR through tomorrow morning, with strong line of thunderstorms impacting the terminal between 17-21Z, though confidence is moderate on exact timing. Winds SW around 10 kt until frontal passage when winds become more W/NW. MVFR to even IFR possible in passing storms.

Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday Night through Tuesday: VFR.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Friday Night...

Areas of marine stratus and fog are possible overnight into Friday morning, this likely will reduce visibilities to less than one-half mile at times. Surface high pressure moves off shore Friday afternoon with the approach of a strong cold front. Ahead of the front, periods of gusty south/southwest winds produce locally stronger gusts, around 25 knots, for the northeast waters off the coast of Cape Ann. Have held off on issuing a SCA at this time, do think the window for this to occur is during the early afternoon, if confidence in stronger gusts increases a SCA may become needed.
Showers and thunderstorms possible Friday afternoon and evening, with rain lingering into Saturday morning. Seas tonight into Friday are between 2 and 3 ft, but building to 3 to 4 ft for northeast waters, with potential to reach 5 ft on the outermost waters. Seas diminish Friday night into Saturday to around 2 to 3 ft.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.


CLIMATE

Daily Record High Temperatures...

Tuesday, June 18th

BOS - 94F (1929)
BDL - 95F (1994)
PVD - 94F (1929)
ORH - 93F (1929)

Wednesday, June 19th

BOS - 96F (1923)
BDL - 95F (1995)
PVD - 94F (1923)
ORH - 93F (1923)

Thursday, June 20th

BOS - 98F (1953)
BDL - 97F (2012)
PVD - 95F (1941)
ORH - 93F (1953)

Last Day of 100F (or greater)

BOS - 100F (07/24/2022)
BDL - 100F (07/21/2019)
PVD - 100F (07/28/2020)
ORH - 102F (07/04/1911)


BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
NLHC3 15 mi45 min 77°F 73°F29.97
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi45 min 70°F 66°F29.95
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 28 mi45 minSSW 15G18 68°F 68°F30.00
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 28 mi45 minSSW 12G16 73°F 29.98
PDVR1 29 mi45 minS 15G17 76°F 29.9662°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi60 minW 7 75°F 29.9864°F
PRUR1 33 mi45 min 67°F 65°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi45 minSSW 6G9.9 74°F 30.00
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 36 mi45 minSSE 19G20 71°F 71°F29.96
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 39 mi45 minSSE 14G17 77°F 65°F29.96
PVDR1 39 mi45 minSSE 16G18 73°F 29.9766°F
44085 41 mi45 min 65°F 62°F2 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 41 mi45 minSSW 17G18 65°F 30.01
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi45 minSSW 11G16 74°F 29.98
FRXM3 42 mi45 min 77°F 61°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 43 mi45 min 80°F 69°F30.00
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 44 mi49 min 63°F3 ft


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Tide / Current for Weekapaug Point, Block Island Sound, Rhode Island
   
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weekapaug Point, Block Island Sound, Rhode Island, Tide feet


Tide / Current for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
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Thu -- 12:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:54 AM EDT     1.87 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:11 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:17 AM EDT     -2.35 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:35 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:25 PM EDT     2.05 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:50 PM EDT     -2.21 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots
12
am
0.8
1
am
1.6
2
am
1.9
3
am
1.6
4
am
1
5
am
0.2
6
am
-0.9
7
am
-1.8
8
am
-2.3
9
am
-2.2
10
am
-1.5
11
am
-0.6
12
pm
0.4
1
pm
1.4
2
pm
2
3
pm
2
4
pm
1.5
5
pm
0.8
6
pm
-0.1
7
pm
-1.2
8
pm
-2
9
pm
-2.2
10
pm
-1.8
11
pm
-1.1


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Boston, MA,




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