Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Misquamicut, RI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:19PM Friday December 13, 2019 8:23 AM EST (13:23 UTC) Moonrise 6:48PMMoonset 9:22AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 716 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
.gale warning in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday evening...
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Areas of fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Areas of fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres will continue to move east and away from the waters today. Low pres from the gulf states will head northeast tonight, passing over the waters Sat, then over northern new england Sat night. Westerly gales blow across the waters Sun and Sun night. High pres builds briefly over the waters on Mon, then is followed by a storm system approaching from the southwest on Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Misquamicut, RI
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location: 41.33, -71.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 131209 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 709 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. Clouds will continue to increase and thicken this morning and scattered light showers should develop across interior southern New this afternoon, but some spotty light icing is possible too. Heavy rain develops late tonight and persists into Saturday morning which will bring the potential for some river and street flooding. A period of strong winds is also expected on Saturday across the Cape and Islands. Dry and blustery conditions move in on Sunday, then colder air arrives Monday. Another system will bring snow Monday night, then change to a wintry mix along south coastal areas toward daybreak Tuesday. A mixed bag of precipitation lingers across inland areas Tuesday, but will change to rain across the coastal plain from near Boston southward. The rain changes back to snow before ending Tuesday evening. Expect dry conditions late Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures well below normal on Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

655 AM Update .

High clouds cover the skies across the region with some breaks allowing for some sunlight to filter through during pre-sunrise. Rather chilly early this morning with temperatures mainly in the upper teens and 20s across most areas. However, noting temps at 12Z have risen to the upper 30s to lower 40s along the immediate S coast where SE winds have increased over couple of hours.

Clouds will continue to lower and thicken during the day as temperatures recover to the mid 30s to lower 40s across the coastal plain, but will linger around freezing well inland as the precipitation pushes in from midday through the afternoon.

Previous forecast on track so far, but have updated to bring near term conditions current.

Previous Discussion .

* Spotty light icing possible across parts of the interior this afternoon with focus on CT River Valley/northern Worcester Hills

High pressure will continue to move east and away from the region today. In addition, shortwave energy approaching will induce a modest southwest LLJ and increasing the forcing for ascent. The atmosphere is initially quite dry, so probably will remain dry across the region this morning. However, by this afternoon should see some spotty light precipitation develop across interior MA & CT. Thermal profiles might be cold enough to support some spotty very light snow initially, but that would not last long. Warming mid levels and lack of deep saturation for salt nuclei would result in ptype being mainly light showers/drizzle. The problem is that much of the guidance is likely scouring out the low level cold air too quickly. Followed a blend of the HREF and 3 KM NAM, which keeps parts of the interior around the freezing mark into the afternoon. This may result in spotty light freezing rain/freezing drizzle. The greatest risk will be in the CT River Valley and perhaps northern Worcester Hills, which is climatologically favored in this pattern.

Given the threat for spotty light icing this afternoon, plan on issuing a special weather statement to highlight these concerns focused on the CT River Valley and northern Worcester Hills. If confidence increases in temps remaining below freezing and areal coverage of precipitation, a Winter Weather Advisory may need to be issued.

Meanwhile, along the coastal plain SSE winds will allow afternoon high temps to reach into the 40s. Bulk of the scattered light precipitation should be across the interior, but may see a few showers reach the coastal plain by later afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. * Flood Watch Late Tonight into Saturday for Central and Eastern MA/RI, but may need to be expanded further west

* Heavy Rain will result in the potential for some river/stream flooding and some urban street flooding are possible too

* Period of southerly 40 to 55 mph wind gusts likely across the Cape/Islands on Saturday

Tonight and Saturday .

The main concern revolves around heavy rain late tonight into Saturday along with the potential for flooding. A secondary concern will be for a period of strong winds across the Cape/Islands. Will break things down a bit more below.

1) Heavy Rain/Flood Threat:

Quite the anomalous setup across the region has a concerned with the potential for flooding. Intensifying low pressure approaching from the southwest will induce a southerly LLJ on the order of 70 to 80 knots with Pwats approaching 1.5 inches. Both those parameters are 3 to 4 standard deviations above normal which will result in a widespread heavy rain event. While showers will be on going this evening, appears heaviest rain will occur late tonight into Saturday morning when very strong forcing acts on the anomalously high Pwats. The result should be widespread 1.50 to 2.50 inches of rain, but localized amounts of 3 to 3.50 inches are certainly possible. This is especially true if any embedded convection can develop, which is certainly possible give Showalter indices near or below zero.

Given the above parameters along with the significant amount of precipitation and snowmelt we have observed this month, the potential exists for flooding. The MMEFS data indicates that there are a few rivers that may experience some flooding if the high rainfall amounts are realized. There also maybe some urban flooding issues too. With that being said, there is enough evidence to warrant the issuance of a Flood Watch for central/eastern MA and RI. There also is a risk in western MA and CT, especially if the axis of the LLJ shifts a bit westward but will let the next shift take a look at the model trends.

2) Strong Wind Potential: Cape/Islands

Guidance is indicated a potent 925 mb LLJ on the order of 70 to 85 knots that crosses the Cape/Islands from mid morning Sat into the mid afternoon hours. While there will be an inversion, should be able to mix down half of that especially if any convection develops. Therefore, we have issued a Wind Advisory for the Cape/Islands. It is possible that this advisory may need to be extended a bit further west depending on the westward extent of the powerful LLJ. There still is time though for the next shift to evaluate.

3) Splashover/Minor Coastal Flooding:

A 1 to 2 foot storm surge appears reasonable along the south coast during the Saturday morning high tide. This may result in some pockets of splashover/minor coastal flooding. However, do not expect winds or storm surge to result in anything too significant. Later shifts may have to consider a coastal flood statement or coastal flood advisory.

4) Saturday Temperatures:

The high resolution model data indicates that portions of interior southern New England may see temperatures remain in the upper 30s to the middle 40s much of Saturday. It is uncertain if some of those locations will truly warm sector and if they do it may not occur until evening. Much of the coastal plain should see temperatures warm well into the 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/.

Highlights .

* Leftover light rain/snow lingers Saturday night into Sunday morning. Strong northwest winds, especially in coastal areas with gusts from 35 to 45 mph Sunday. Gale warnings in place across the coastal waters Saturday night and Sunday. Another round of wind headlines may be needed Sunday.

* Dry and seasonably cold Monday

* Next system moves in moves in late Monday night through Tuesday evening. Expect another round of snow before becoming a wintry mix which may change to rain for a time along the coastal plain. While confidence continues to increase, but storm track and precipitation types remain uncertain.

* Snow showers may linger into Wednesday with dry conditions elsewhere. Unseasonable cold temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. Details .

Saturday night .

Leftover rain will slowly taper off from S-N from around midnight onward, but may see a mix with snow across the E slopes of the Berkshires. Clouds will linger especially across the interior, though may start to thin out toward daybreak.

Expect winds to shift to W as the strong low pressure moves to the western Quebec overnight. Speeds will increase overnight with the tight pressure gradient, gusting up to 25 to around 30 kt are likely after 08Z across the higher inland terrain and along the coast, with gusts up to 20-25 kt across most other areas.

Temps will fall back to the lower-mid 30s across the higher inland terrain ranging to the lower 40s along the immediate shoreline.

Sunday .

** Strong winds expected **

As the strong low shifts NE toward Newfoundland Sunday, expect the strong wind gusts to continue as the colder air continues to filter in. Will see gusts up to 30-40 kt, highest along the immediate E coast and especially across Cape Cod and the islands.

Temperatures will not rise much, with highs only in the upper 30s to mid 40s, but the winds will be rather strong. Have continued Gale Warnings for the open waters on Sunday, and may need another round of wind headlines across parts of the region as well.

Monday through Tuesday .

**Potential for snow mixing with/changing to rain Tuesday**

Another batch of cold air will swing across the region on Monday. Temps will only reach the upper 20s to lower 30s across the higher inland terrain, ranging to the mid-upper 30s across the coastal plain. Winds will start off gusty across the coastline with gusts up to around 20-25 kt early, but should diminish during the day. The cold temps will run around 5 degrees or so below seasonal normals for mid December.

Clouds will increase from S-N Monday night as another storm system works E-NE out of the south central Plains states. Looks like the low should pass across the interior, but tough call with wide model solution spread on the track and timing of this low. Rather low confidence with this portion of the forecast.

Have carried increasing POPs from SW-NE with light snow to start Monday afternoon. Milder air will start to overrun the cold low level dome, so will see a wintry mix of precip starting along the S coast after midnight Monday night riding up to around the Mass Pike by around 12Z, then should the precip change to rain from SE-NW across central and southern areas during the day. At this point, looks like mainly snow across N central and W Mass, with a rain/snow mix through most of the day across NE Mass southwestward into N RI and CT. Should start to taper off late Tue and Tue night as another batch of cold air works in.

Wednesday through Thursday .

May see some leftover snow showers across E coastal areas and the E slopes of the Berkshires during Wednesday, otherwise mainly dry conditions and cold temperatures in place. Another surge of colder air from the W-NW will bring even colder temperatures but continued dry conditions on Thursday. Fast moving low pressure may push across later Thursday, but still quite a few days to watch this system.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z update .

Short Term /through Saturday/ .

Today . Moderate to high confidence. VFR conditions to start. MVFR CIGS move in across interior MA/CT late this morning/early afternoon and then probably deteriorate to IFR levels by late afternoon/early evening. Scattered light showers develop across the interior this afternoon, but spotty freezing drizzle is possible if temps remain below freezing. Highest risk appears to be in portions of the CT River Valley. Meanwhile, across eastern MA/RI VFR conditions should persist through mid to late afternoon before lowering to MVFR levels.

Tonight and Saturday . Moderate to high confidence. Conditions deteriorate through the night to IFR/LIFR thresholds and persist into at least the first half of Saturday. This a result of heavy rain late tonight into Saturday morning and can not rule out an isolated t-storm or two. A period of southerly wind gusts of 35 to 45 knots develops on Saturday across the Cape/Islands. Some gusty southerly winds are possible along the coastal plain on Saturday too, but elsewhere a fairly strong inversion will keep strong winds aloft. However, LLWS will be a concern too.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate to high confidence in TAF

KBDL Terminal . Moderate to high confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/ .

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance RA, chance FZRA, patchy BR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. SN likely, patchy BR, FZRA likely.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance RA, chance SN, FZRA likely, patchy FG.

MARINE.

Short Term /through Saturday/ .

Today . High confidence. High pressure moves east of the waters today. This will allow SSE winds of 15 to 20 knots to develop this afternoon along with 4 to 5 foot seas across our outer- waters.

Tonight and Saturday . Moderate to high confidence. Increasing LLJ will result in SW winds of 25 to 30 knots developing tonight. On Saturday, a potent 80 knot LLJ at 925 mb will result in a period of southerly wind gusts between 35 and 45 knots on most open waters so Gale Warnings are posted. Despite the inversion, given the magnitude of the LLJ expect some Gale Force gusts to mix down especially if any embedded convection develops. Seas build to between 7 and 13 feet across our open waters.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/ .

Saturday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Areas fog, slight chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain likely, snow likely, freezing rain likely, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, freezing rain likely, patchy fog.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . Flood Watch from late tonight through late Saturday night for MAZ004>007-012>024-026. Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for MAZ022>024. RI . Flood Watch from late tonight through late Saturday night for RIZ001>008. MARINE . Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ231>235-250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ237.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/EVT NEAR TERM . Frank/EVT SHORT TERM . Frank LONG TERM . EVT AVIATION . Frank/EVT MARINE . Frank/EVT


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 14 mi39 min SE 19 G 23 44°F 1027.1 hPa35°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 15 mi54 min N 8 G 11 27°F 48°F1032.6 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 21 mi54 min 44°F 44°F1032.3 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 28 mi54 min SSE 11 G 15 41°F 39°F1033.3 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 28 mi60 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 29°F 42°F1033.8 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi99 min SE 4.1 34°F 1034 hPa30°F
PRUR1 33 mi54 min 37°F 32°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi54 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 35°F 1034.1 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 36 mi54 min E 9.9 G 11 35°F 43°F1033.4 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 39 mi54 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 28°F 42°F1033.8 hPa
PVDR1 39 mi54 min N 2.9 G 4.1 28°F 1033.9 hPa25°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 41 mi84 min SE 19 G 21 41°F 1033.8 hPa (-2.7)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi54 min E 2.9 G 4.1 33°F 1033.9 hPa
FRXM3 42 mi54 min 33°F 28°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 43 mi54 min 31°F 43°F1034 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 44 mi54 min 51°F4 ft

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI1 mi31 minSE 1010.00 miOvercast43°F32°F65%1032.6 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT13 mi28 minSE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy42°F34°F73%1032 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI16 mi28 minSE 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F34°F76%1032.5 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY18 mi30 minVar 5 G 15 mi44°F35°F71%1032 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWST

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW9N7N9N6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3N3N4N44SE7SE8SE10
1 day agoNW73NW7NW3NW43NW4W4CalmCalmCalm4W6
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Tide / Current Tables for Weekapaug Point, Block Island Sound, Rhode Island
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:42 AM EST     -2.95 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:40 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:22 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 08:39 AM EST     3.08 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 11:49 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:06 PM EST     -3.62 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:22 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:12 PM EST     2.98 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-1.7-2.7-2.9-2.2-10.51.92.932.31.2-0.3-1.8-3.1-3.6-3.2-2.1-0.612.332.71.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.