Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stonington, CT

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Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:18PM Friday July 19, 2019 6:50 PM EDT (22:50 UTC) Moonrise 10:12PMMoonset 7:55AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 333 Pm Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 333 Pm Edt Fri Jul 19 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. The heat and humidity of today will continue to build across the waters Sat and Sunday. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon into Sunday night as a frontal boundary meanders across the region then becomes stationary near the south coast. The front may become the focus for showers and Thunderstorms across the southern half of the waters Mon and Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stonington , CT
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location: 41.33, -71.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 191942
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
342 pm edt Fri jul 19 2019

Synopsis
Extreme heat and humidity is on tap for the weekend with dangerous
heat indices between 105 and 115 degrees during both afternoons. Dry
weather dominates this weekend, but a few thunderstorms are possible
Sunday afternoon and night. A better chance for some showers and
thunderstorms will be next Monday into Tuesday with eventually much
cooler and less humid air moving into the region. Mainly dry with
seasonable temperatures favored Wednesday through next Friday
along with comfortable humidity levels.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
345 pm update...

tonight ...

warm sector airmass overspreading the region this afternoon with
many interior locations (bdl-baf-fit-bed-owd-bos) into the low 90s
as of 3 pm along with dew pts 70-75. Then there is nantucket at 70
degs in 1 2 mile fog. Gotta love new england weather.

Cu-scu clouds will erode with sunset and give way to a very warm
evening night given dew pts of 70-75. Thus overnight mins only in
the 70s, to near 80 in the urban areas of boston, providence and
hartford. This humid airmass combined with SW winds will likely
result in patchy fog and stratus revisiting CAPE cod and the islands
with plenty offshore south of mvy-bid and long island via latest
goes-16 satellite imagery. Some patchy interior fog as well.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night
*** excessive heat warning continues ***
*** near record high temperatures ***
Saturday ...

off to a very warm start with morning lows only 75-80. This combined
with 850 mb temps of +22c to +23c advecting across the region,
boundary layer extending up to 800 mb and weak downsloping west
winds of 10-15 kt will support highs 95-100 away from the south
coast and 100-105 possible in the ct river valley and merrimack
valley of northeast ma. These near record highs will combine with
dew pts of 70-75 to yield heat indices of 105-110 with a few spots
in the ct river valley and merrimack valley approaching 115! Thus
dangerous heat and humidity and as a result excessive heat warnings
remain posted.

Given this anomalous airmass derived highs with the warmest
guidance.

Mid level subtropical ridge and associated subsidence should cap any
potential convection tomorrow. Therefore expecting dry weather.

Saturday night ...

near record warmth with low temps only falling back to 75-80 with
low 80s likely in the urban centers of boston, providence and
hartford. Thus no relief with these temps and dew pts remaining in
the 70s. Ssw winds and dry weather should prevail.

Long term Sunday through Friday
Highlights...

* dangerous heat humidity sun: heat index values between 105 and 115
and it is possible a few all time record highs are approached
* high uncertainty if any convection develops Sun pm, but it needs
to be monitored given extreme instability EML in place
* some showers thunderstorms likely Mon and or Tue with eventually
much cooler less humid air moving into the region
* mainly dry with seasonable temperatures favored Wed through next
fri along with comfortable humidity levels
details...

Sunday...

everything remains on track for extreme heat humidity for this part
of the country. Strong upper level ridge to the south will continue
to pump a very highly anomalous airmass into southern new england.

850t around +22c and westerly flow will result in near record high
temperatures. In fact, many of the naefs GEFS are showing
temperature profiles outside the models climatology. Therefore, we
expect highs to range between 98 and 103 degrees in many locations
away from any localized marine influences. Whether we end up on the
higher lower side of these numbers will depend upon amount of solar
insolation. If everything turns out to be ideal it is not out of
the question that a few all time record highs are challenged.

More important though will be the dangerous heat index values. Given
the EML in place, dewpoints will tend to stay quite high remaining
in the 70s. This will result in extreme heat index values climbing
to between 105 to 115 degrees during peak afternoon heating.

The other concern Sunday afternoon and evening will be the potential
for convection, but this remains quite uncertain. The highly
anomalous heat humidity coupled with an EML in place will result in
a tremendous amount of instability for this part of the country. We
will probably see CAPE values on the order of 4,000 j kg. A cold
front will be dropping south into the region, but there is limited
upper support. That means there is uncertainty if we are able to
bust the cap. If the cap holds, we may remain completely dry. On
the other hand if it breaks, there is some high end severe weather
potential given the environment in place. Will have a better idea
once we get into the wheelhouse of the high resolution models.

Monday and Tuesday...

interesting setup Mon into Tue as model guidance indicates a few
waves of low pressure forming along the front to our south. Latest
model guidance indicates we may enter the warm sector again for a
time Monday with one of the waves of low pressure. Either way,
there will be the threat for some showers and thunderstorms Mon into
tue. Plenty of uncertainty on timing, but given high pwats locally
heavy rainfall will be a concern. We also will have to watch for
the risk for localized severe weather near any frontal boundaries.

Wednesday through Friday...

mainly dry and seasonable weather appears to be on tap for the
middle and latter half of the next work week. Latest model guidance
shifts the front southeast of our region as high pressure builds in
from the west. The result will be pleasant summerlike temperatures
but with comfortable humidity levels. A big relief from what we
will experience this weekend.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ... Moderate confidence.

1755z update ...

thru 00z ... VFR with occasional ifr MVFR at nantucket. Ssw
winds.

After 00z ... VFR but ifr MVFR drifting back into CAPE cod and
the islands as the night progresses. Ssw winds continue.

Saturday ... Any leftover MVFR ifr across CAPE cod and the
islands will erode and give way toVFR by midday or earlier.VFR
elsewhere with modest west winds, southwest along the coast. Dry
weather prevails.

Saturday night ... VFR and dry weather likely.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ... High confidence.

Sunday:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra, chance tsra.

Sunday night:VFR. Chance shra, chance tsra.

Monday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Shra likely, tsra
likely.

Monday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Breezy.

Chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Tuesday night through Wednesday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ... High confidence.

345 pm update...

tonight ... Ssw winds but low clouds and fog will impact the
southern waters from CAPE cod southward.

Saturday Sat night ... Ssw winds with periods of low clouds and
fog southern waters.

Outlook Sunday through Wednesday ... High confidence.

Sunday through Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of
thunderstorms.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Rain showers likely, thunderstorms likely.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Rain showers likely, thunderstorms likely.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of
rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Climate
Record highest min temps for Saturday july 20:
bos: 75 in 2016
bdl: 73 in 1975
pvd: 77 in 1983
orh: 72 in 2013
record highs for Saturday july 20:
bos: 99 in 1991
bdl: 100 in 1991
pvd: 101 in 1991
orh: 92 in 1901
record highest min temps for Sunday july 21:
bos: 81 in 1991
bdl: 74 in 1977
pvd: 77 in 1980
orh: 73 in 1991
record highest MAX temps for Sunday july 21
bos: 102 in 1977
bdl: 101 in 1991
pvd: 102 in 1991
orh: 95 in 1926
last occurrence of 100f or higher temperatures
bos: 7 22 2011 (103f)
bdl: 7 18 2012 (100f)
pvd: 7 22 2011 (101f)
orh: 7 4 1911 (102f)
notable high dew points in past years for july 20 and july 21:
Saturday july 20
bos 76 in 2013 (last of multiple years)
bdl 76 in 2005
pvd 76 in 2013 (last of multiple years)
orh 76 in 2013
Sunday july 21
bos 76 in 1994
bdl 78 in 1972
pvd 81 in 1977 (tied for highest all-time at pvd)
orh 76 in 2011 (last of multiple years)

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt Sunday for ctz002>004.

Air quality ALERT until 11 pm edt this evening for ctz002-003.

Ma... Air quality ALERT from 11 am to 11 pm edt Saturday for
maz017>024.

Excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt Sunday for maz002>021-
026.

Heat advisory until 8 pm edt Sunday for maz022-023.

Ri... Air quality ALERT from 11 am to 11 pm edt Saturday for
riz001>008.

Excessive heat warning until 8 pm edt Sunday for riz001>007.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Nocera frank
near term... Nocera
short term... Nocera
long term... Frank
aviation... Nocera frank
marine... Nocera frank
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 10 mi41 min WSW 5.1 G 6 74°F 1009.1 hPa71°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 11 mi51 min SW 7 G 8.9 83°F 70°F1009.9 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi51 min 75°F 71°F1010.5 hPa (-1.1)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi57 min SW 12 G 15 79°F 76°F1009.9 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 32 mi51 min SSW 12 G 15
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi66 min WSW 8 81°F 1010 hPa74°F
PRUR1 36 mi51 min 76°F 72°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi51 min WSW 6 G 11 80°F 1010.1 hPa (-0.4)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi51 min SSW 13 G 15 82°F 75°F1009.5 hPa (+0.0)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi51 min W 13 G 16 87°F 73°F1008.6 hPa (-0.5)
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 45 mi31 min SW 12 G 16 75°F 73°F1011.1 hPa74°F
FRXM3 45 mi57 min 81°F 73°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 46 mi51 min SSW 14 G 18 79°F 1009.4 hPa (-0.5)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi57 min 83°F 80°F1010 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 48 mi51 min 70°F4 ft

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI5 mi58 minSW 710.00 miFair81°F73°F79%1010.5 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT8 mi55 minSSW 68.00 miFair80°F72°F76%1010 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY17 mi57 minSW 8 G 16 mi76°F72°F88%1010.8 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI19 mi55 minSW 127.00 miOvercast74°F70°F88%1011 hPa

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N5NE6NE6NE6N5N4N4N4N5N4N3CalmCalmCalm3W7SW7SW7SW11
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1 day agoSW5N6CalmS6W4S10N4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmSW3CalmCalmS5S4NE6NE8NE7NE7NE5N6
2 days agoS7SW7W3SW4SW5SW6S4SW3W3CalmSW3CalmSW3SW6SW7S6SW6S6S10SW8S12S12
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for Stonington, Fishers Island Sound, Connecticut
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Stonington
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Fri -- 05:26 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:27 AM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:37 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:33 PM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.51.91.30.70.30.30.81.422.42.72.72.31.91.51.10.70.611.72.32.73

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:34 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:40 AM EDT     -3.14 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:00 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:46 AM EDT     2.57 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:07 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:01 PM EDT     -2.66 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:08 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:56 PM EDT     2.50 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.80.7-0.6-2-2.9-3.1-2.5-1.4-01.42.32.62.11.30.2-1.2-2.2-2.7-2.3-1.4-0.21.12.12.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.