Wednesday, July15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stonington, CT

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:26AMSunset 8:20PM Wednesday July 15, 2020 9:57 PM EDT (01:57 UTC) Moonrise 1:30AMMoonset 3:44PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 716 Pm Edt Wed Jul 15 2020
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Wed Jul 15 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A ridge of high pressure will slide east of the waters on Thursday. A warm front approaches on Friday and moves through Friday night. Drier weather through the weekend with high pressure, but will see a cold front move across the waters late Monday. This front will stall over the waters for Tuesday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stonington , CT
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location: 41.33, -71.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 152255 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 655 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. Dry, cool, comfortable and cloudy due to onshore flow despite the high pressure building in today. The cooler and dry weather continues on Thursday. A warm front will bring a few showers and thunderstorms Friday, then hot and humid weather returns this weekend into early next week. A cold front may trigger more showers and storms Monday and again Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/.

655 PM Update

Evening satellite imagery shows lingering cu over the interior, although much of this is dissipating as sunset approaches. Question is whether the amount of sky cover remains as high as previously forecast. Imagery suggests no, at least for the first part of the night. Low clouds over the ocean are moving away from the region, taking away another source for sky cover.

Residual moisture as forecast between 800 and 950 mb may lead to patchy clouds overnight, especially fog/stratus which may develop for a few hours later tonight. Best chance would be in and near the CT River Valley.

So the forecast will leave some sky cover over the Berks/Litchfield Hills and develop some cover later tonight over the CT Valley. But farther east trend will be mostly clear. Dew points show drier air moving in across Ern Mass and RI, another factor in considering less sky cover for that area.

Temperatures/winds look on target.

Previous Discussion .

Visible satellite imagery shows partial clearing taking place across S New England. Also not seeing any shower activity on radar reflectivity. Nonetheless, with an E to NE flow and residual moisture around 800 and 950mb, there remains the small chance for some isolated showers towards the Berkshires thanks to orographic lifting. Otherwise, most locations will remain dry for the rest of today.

As a 576 Dm closed low moves off the MA coast and a 1026 mb surface high pressure noses in from Nova Scotia, this will allow for a rather crisp and cool night with dew points mainly in the mid 50s except for coastal areas where dew points will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Expect overnight lows to fall into the upper 50s to low 60s. Despite cloud cover and light winds, this is still an anomalously cool air mass with 850mb and 1000mb temperatures at 10th to 25th percentile of both Chatham's SPC sounding climatology and NAEFS Situational Awareness Table. Warmest locations look to be along the CT River valley, coastal areas and usual urban heat island spots like Boston metro.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Thursday .

* Cool and mostly dry day with chance for scattered showers in Western MA/CT.

Thursday will feature more sun than on Wednesday with high pressure in control. Also, surface flow gradually turns to the southeast for the interior areas as surface high pressure moves offshore. Locations in Eastern MA and RI will have a predominantly easterly onshore flow. Given the wind direction, expect warmest temperatures to be in the CT River valley and along the MA Route 2 corridor thanks to downsloping effect. Nonetheless, it will still be a cooler than normal day for mid July standards. 850mb temperatures are between +10 to +12C with 925mb temperatures at +13 to +16C from east to west. Average highs are in the low to mid 80s, so Thursday high temperatures will run about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. In addition, dew points are in the mid 50s to low 60s, so it will feel very comfortable for outdoor activities.

Thursday night .

* Another cool night but rain chances increase from the west after midnight.

Another cool night but winds turn southwest overnight as a 500mb ridge builds in from the west, beginning a warming trend. Showers also move into Western MA/CT out ahead of a warm front. This warm front is associated with a very broad upper level trough roughly centered over northern Manitoba with the surface low lifting from the Great Lakes into Quebec. Timing of rain showers moving in remains to be further refined but looks to be after midnight. Risk of thunder is low overnight though should increase by sunrise on Friday as deeper surface moisture moves in with dew points climbing from the 50s into the 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Big Picture .

Zonal flow from weekend through at least midweek next. Several shortwaves and their supporting upper jets move through the flow, crossing Canada and clipping the USA Northern Tier. Current timing would suggest shortwaves crossing New England Friday, Monday, and Wednesday. As usual, timing of shortwaves in a zonal flow should be followed with caution.

Contour heights at 500-mb remain in the mid 580s (Dm) to low 590s through the period. This is above normal, indicating the deep layer to be warmer than normal through the period. Climatology at Albany and Chatham show average midsummer 850-mb temps at 13C with high values at 20C and isolated readings in the mid 20s. Forecast 850-mb temperatures start 15-17C, warming to 18-20C over the weekend and Monday. The GFS then moderates back to 15-17C while the ECMWF maintains 18-20C through Wednesday.

Mass fields are similar through Tuesday, so confidence is moderate- high through that time, then moderate Wednesday.

Daily details .

Friday .

Upper shortwave moving across Quebec and Nrn New England, with some extension into Srn New England. Both GFS and ECMWF show a secondary jet moving across Srn New England. This means dynamic support for lift, which goes along with lift generating by daytime heating. Forecasted CAPE in the aftn/eve reaches 500-1000 J/Kg in C/W Mass and N CT, with 1000-1500 J/Kg in the Hudson Valley. PW values will be near 1.75 inches. Winds at 850-mb 25-30 kt, and at 500-mb 35 to 40 kt. All this suggest afternoon/evening convection with potential for strong storms and local downpours. A shallow mixed layer near 950 mb supports 850-equiv temps of 8-10C, supporting max sfc temps in the mid 70s to around 80. Dewpoints in the mid 60s suggests noticeable humidity but not oppressive.

Saturday through Monday .

High pressure over New England Saturday moves offshore Sunday-Monday and generates a southwest flow across Southern New England. Mixing reaches 800 mb Sat and Sun, and at least near 850 mb Monday. This means heating temperatures, tapping 18C Saturday, 19C Sunday, and 19- 20C Monday and supporting around 90 to the mid 90s each day.

Cold front associated with another northern shortwave crosses on Monday. Forecast CAPE values 2000-3000 J/Kg and totals around 50 again suggest potential for strong storms, and PW values around 2 inches suggest local downpours.

Tuesday through Wednesday .

High pressure over the region Tuesday brings fair warm weather, then moves east Wednesday. Differences in the GFS and ECMWF with the GFS bringing the next shortwave through on Wednesday, while the ECMWF holds off by 24 hours. LI ahead of this shortwave becomes sub- zero, while totals are near 50 on the ECMWF and mid 40s on the GFS. Whenever the shortwave moves through, it should bring showers/scattered thunder. Wednesday PW values around 2 inches suggest local downpours.

Temps on the GFS suggest daytime highs 85-90, while the ECMWF suggests 90-95. This may be a case of one model sliding the less hot air a few miles farther south. The forecast will split the difference with around 90 inland and 80s along the coast.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR across most of southern New England. Lingering moisture 2000 feet to 5000 ft AGL suggests some clouds in Western areas of MA and CT. Drier humidity/lower dew points moving in from the east suggests less cover over Eastern MA and RI.

Could see MVFR cigs over the Berkshires late tonight, and IFR in fog/low clouds over parts of the CT River Valley, especially in Nrn Mass.

Otherwise, with a relatively dry and cool air mass in place, expect VFR with sky cover less than 40 percent.

Thursday: High confidence.

VFR at all terminals except for the interior higher elevations where SE to S winds could bring periods of MVFR ceilings. Eastern MA and RI terminals will start the day off with E winds before turning SE in the afternoon as surface high moves further offshore. Wind speeds at 5 to 10 kt at all locations.

Thursday night: Moderate confidence.

Rain showers associated with an approaching warm front could bring ceilings down to MVFR-IFR across the western terminals, especially after Fri 06z. Moderate confidence on timing. VFR conditions for Eastern MA and RI terminals. S winds at 5 to 10 kt.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/ .

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, isolated TSRA, patchy BR.

Saturday: VFR.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Patchy BR.

Sunday through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

MARINE. 4 PM Update .

*Small Craft Advisories remain for most eastern outer waters until tonight.

Small Craft Advisories continue across the eastern outer waters with seas of 5 ft through this evening. Seas should drop below 5 ft by midnight across all locations. NE winds at 10 to 15 kts through Thursday afternoon before turning S to SE.

Otherwise, quiet weather with mostly dry conditions through Thursday night for all waters.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/ .

Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ250-254.

SYNOPSIS . WTB/Chai NEAR TERM . WTB/Chai SHORT TERM . Chai LONG TERM . WTB AVIATION . WTB/Chai MARINE . WTB/Chai


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 11 mi87 min 69°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi87 min 68°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi87 min 77°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 32 mi87 min 66°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi72 min E 9.9 68°F 1025 hPa62°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi87 min 77°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi87 min 72°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 45 mi47 min E 9.7 G 14 69°F 74°F1024.2 hPa63°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 46 mi57 min NE 15 G 16 1025.6 hPa (+1.1)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi87 min 76°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 48 mi91 min 70°F3 ft

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI5 mi64 minESE 810.00 mi72°F60°F66%1024.4 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT8 mi61 minSE 610.00 miFair67°F63°F87%1023.9 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY17 mi63 minN 0 mi67°F62°F84%1024.5 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI19 mi61 minE 910.00 miFair65°F60°F84%1024.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWST

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE43NE4CalmN3NE3--CalmCalmN4NE7NE8NE5NE76N6N3SE6E7SE7SE8--SE5E8
1 day agoW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6Calm3N5N7N8NW7NW7NW6--NE5SW10
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2 days agoSW5SW4SW5SW4W3SW3SW5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmS6S5S8S8S9SW7S8SW5S5S7SW5W3

Tide / Current Tables for Stonington, Fishers Island Sound, Connecticut
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Stonington
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:32 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:42 AM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:56 PM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.711.41.82.12.32.32.11.81.51.10.80.711.62.12.62.932.92.52.11.61

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:13 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:50 AM EDT     1.82 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:06 AM EDT     -2.11 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:13 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:06 PM EDT     2.15 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:38 PM EDT     -2.61 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2-1.2-0.20.81.61.81.510.2-0.8-1.7-2.1-1.9-1.2-0.20.81.82.11.91.40.5-0.6-1.7-2.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.