Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stonington, CT

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Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 7:38PM Thursday August 22, 2019 10:06 PM EDT (02:06 UTC) Moonrise 11:21PMMoonset 12:40PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 716 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers this evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front approaches the waters this evening, then lingers near the southern waters tonight. A few showers and Thunderstorms will move along and ahead of the front tonight into Fri morning. The front moves offshore during the day Fri. Canadian high pres builds over the waters Fri and Sat bringing dry weather and less humidity. A stiff northeast wind develops Sun and persists through Tue as the high shifts over the maritimes. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stonington , CT
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location: 41.33, -71.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 230152
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
952 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front moves across southern new england overnight, then
stalls just off the south coast. A wave of low pressure then
moves along the front and close to the region. Scattered
showers and embedded thunder may impact much of ct ri and
southeast ma through Friday morning. The front moves farther
offshore Friday afternoon with drier and less humid weather to
follow. Canadian high pressure then provides dry weather
Saturday with a mild afternoon and cool night. Onshore flow
Sunday will yield cooler conditions along with a few showers
possible. Cool weather likely lingers into early next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
Cold front has moved into northern ma. Position of the front is
well indicated by dew points. Dew points at 9 pm in ct-ri-se ma
were 70 to 75 (oppressive humidity) while values at pittsfield,
north adams, orange, fitchburg, and lawrence were in the mid to
upper 50s. Radars show showers over nyc and SW ct moving east.

This batch is mostly a concern of our south coast areas from
around 1130 pm to 230 am.

Sbcape from the spf rap shows 500-1000 j kg lingering over ct-
ri-se ma through midnight, then diminishing. This should support
the showers moving across from nyc.

Synoptic support increases later tonight as canadian upper
trough swings south, and our area moves under the right entrance
region of the supporting upper jet. Pw values are forecast
around 2 inches overnight, supplying moisture for clouds and
showers thunder.

We will continue to show an area of scattered showers thunder
developing overnight along and south of the cold front, mainly
areas south of the mass pike.

Min temps will be highly dependant on the dew points. South of
the front temps and dews will linger in the low to mid 70s.

North of the front we expect temps to fall into the 60s, except
mid to upper 50s along the berkshire east slopes and parts of
northern worcester county.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
4 pm update ...

Friday ...

showers with embedded thunder and heavy rain possible during the
morning across ct-ri and south of the ma pike, especially south
coast of ri ma. For what it's worth the new 12z ec has trended
slower with the departing rain shield, however all guidance
including the cams support a drying trend in the afternoon along
with sunshine developing from northwest to southeast.

Should turn out to be a nice afternoon with highs in the upper
70s to lower 80s (seasonable for late aug) but very comfortable
humidity with dew pts falling into the upper 40s and lower 50s!
Friday night ...

dry post frontal airmass overspreading the region with a cool
north drainage flow. Thus leaned toward the cooler guidance with
lows in the 50s regionwide, upper 40s for NW ma and around 60
for the big city of boston.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
4 pm update ...

highlights...

* mild temperatures and dry conditions Saturday
* cooler than normal temperatures expected Saturday through Monday,
with spotty light rain or showers at times
* temperatures moderate by mid week, with another chance for showers
Tuesday through Thursday
details...

Saturday and Sunday...

the weekend looks overall pleasant and cooler, with a very
comfortably dry airmass in place. A large area of high pressure at
the surface moves east from southern canada into northern new
england and remains anchored there through the weekend. While some
lingering weak troughing and cold pool aloft remain, high pressure
and an especially dry column should keep rain chances to a minimum.

Best chance of some showers will be on Sunday as moist low level
advection increases on north easterly flow which could allow for
some shallow showers... Can't rule out a pop up shower for most of
the region but the best chance would be along the south and east
coasts and coastal plain. Speaking of northeasterly flow around that
surface high, the pressure gradient tightens on the southern end,
bringing gusty northeast winds on Sunday (and to a lesser extent
on Monday), mainly along the south coast into CAPE cod where
winds could gust to 25-35 mph.

Comfortable conditions both days under a deep cold pool. H85 temps
down around 6-8c will support below average high temperatures in the
70s each day... 60s along the east coast on Sunday given increased
onshore flow. Dewpoints remain comfortable in the 50s.

Monday through Thursday...

Monday looks to remain mostly dry with continued influence of high
pressure and only a slowly moistening atmospheric column. Winds
along the south coast remain gusty but start coming down. It's not
until Monday night Tuesday that we really see signs of a warm
frontal feature ahead of two incoming low pressure systems... One
moving from the great lakes into canada, and another potentially
approaching southern new england up the east coast. High degree of
uncertainty on how these features play out and interact with each
other, but the general idea will be increasing moisture as dewpoints
surge back into the upper 60s Tuesday, into the 70s by Wednesday
into late week. Overall an unsettled pattern with at least periodic
rain chances Tuesday through Thursday as several frontal boundaries
and shortwaves move through. Not much instability for thunder, at
least through mid week given cool northeast flow. Temperatures
remain a bit below normal Tuesday, in the 70s, before rebounding
into the low 80s by mid-late week as warmer subtropical air is
pulled up the coast downstream of the trough.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... Moderate confidence.

Tonight...

mainly dry initially.VFR-MVFR CIGS vsbys moving into ct-ri-se
mass 03z to 06z. Isolated thunder possible. MainlyVFR and dry
north of the ma pike.

Friday...

showers in MVFR-vfr possible during the morning across ri ct and
southeast ma, especially along the south coast and islands.

Otherwise trend will be forVFR, dry weather and NW winds.

Friday night...

vfr, dry weather and northerly winds.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf
kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ... Moderate confidence
Saturday:VFR.

Saturday night:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Sunday through Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR
possible. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
shra.

Monday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Slight chance shra.

Tuesday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... High confidence.

Tonight ... Scattered showers and isolated thunder especially
11 pm to 2 am along the southern waters. Additional showers
arrive on most waters after 2 am. SW winds slowly shifting to
nw as a cold front stalls over the southern waters. Seas
lingering at 5 feet south of block island, but expected to
diminish. We will continue the small craft advisory to 2 am.

Friday ... Scattered showers with isolated thunder and heavy
downpours possible in the morning, then trending drying in the
afternoon from NW to se.

Friday night ... Cold front offshore with wnw winds and dry
weather.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ... Moderate confidence.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Friday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Nocera bw
near term... Wtb nocera bw
short term... Nocera
long term... Bw
aviation... Wtb nocera bw
marine... Wtb nocera bw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 10 mi142 min N 7 G 7 79°F 1009.8 hPa71°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 11 mi49 min N 1 G 1.9 77°F 74°F1011.4 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 20 mi49 min 78°F 74°F1011.9 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi55 min WSW 6 G 8 78°F 75°F1011.4 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 32 mi55 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 74°F 70°F1011.2 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi82 min W 4.1 77°F 1011 hPa73°F
PRUR1 36 mi49 min 77°F 72°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi49 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 78°F 1011.6 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi49 min W 8.9 G 9.9 78°F 80°F1011.2 hPa
PVDR1 41 mi49 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 80°F 1011.4 hPa71°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi49 min NNW 6 G 8.9 82°F 76°F1011 hPa
FRXM3 45 mi55 min 79°F 72°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 45 mi37 min WSW 12 G 14 78°F 1012.3 hPa74°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi55 min 80°F 81°F1011.5 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 46 mi67 min WSW 15 G 16 74°F 1011.6 hPa (+1.0)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 46 mi49 min SW 8.9 G 11 79°F 1011 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 48 mi37 min 76°F5 ft

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI5 mi14 minN 010.00 miOvercast79°F73°F82%1011.8 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT8 mi11 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F70°F76%1011.5 hPa
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY17 mi13 minSW 4 mi78°F70°F76%1012.1 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI19 mi11 minWSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy0°F0°F%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWST

Wind History from WST (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6--SW5S3--SW3SW5--S3CalmCalmS3SW5SW5W8SW7SW10SW8SW9SW10SW8SW3--Calm
1 day agoCalm----------Calm--N3CalmCalm----S8SE9S9S11S12--S9S8S9SW6SW7
2 days agoCalmCalm--------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm346N5CalmW7SW9SW5SW5--SW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Stonington, Fishers Island Sound, Connecticut
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Stonington
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Thu -- 01:52 AM EDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:29 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:22 PM EDT     2.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:17 PM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.52.52.421.61.210.80.81.21.82.42.82.92.92.62.11.71.310.80.81.2

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
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Thu -- 01:20 AM EDT     2.10 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:41 AM EDT     -2.29 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:42 PM EDT     2.27 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     -2.49 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.11.91.30.4-0.5-1.5-2.1-2.3-1.7-0.70.41.42.12.21.70.8-0.1-1.1-2-2.5-2.3-1.5-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.